Reverend's 2010 MLB

[khaden]

That was so much fun I get to do it again on Monday with a C bet on the pathetic Red Sox

[mizzoujohn]

That was so much fun I get to do it again on Monday with a C bet on the pathetic Red Sox

Is it worth it to place the C on Boston? I'm struggling with it. They are a train wreck!! Help, Rev.

[G's pks]

Great points Rev and G's.. I'm doing a small chase among other plays and just building it into all my plays ... Like for example today I only put a little more on the Brewers than I lost in the first game so I still almost lost everything I lost in yesterday's game, but hell I made profit other areas so it's not worth the risk...

great info and keep trucking conservatively... we're still in April boys .. no one should be wiped out

Exactly...

[doublej95]

That was so much fun I get to do it again on Monday with a C bet on the pathetic Red Sox

Am I missing something here I didn't know Rev had a system going with the Sox's, where are you guys coming up with this.

[khaden]

Is it worth it to place the C on Boston? I'm struggling with it. They are a train wreck!! Help, Rev.

I don't know? I was struggling with that up until game time today with the C bet on the Brewers. I probably wont decide until game time because Im sure I will change my mind 1000x between now and then. There are going to be C bets during the course of the year. Today was my second with the brewers. (I mistakenly played the dodgers against the Pirates in the opening series and they went to a c and covered) They are not fun but......

[khaden]

Am I missing something here I didn't know Rev had a system going with the Sox's, where are you guys coming up with this.

I dont think Rev played it but in his and stingy's original thread the Red Sox are a home series play. If you go to Stingy's home chase thread they were a play for this series against Tampa, You would think during a 4 game home series they would be able to steal atleast one win. For me the game on Friday was a no action play due to the rain-so I personally started a 3 game chase after that loss on Sat.

[spankadank]

DoubleJ, I believe they are chasing the Sox because it was one of Stingy's original home teams to play.

[jbizzle]

Thinking of throwing a couple extra units on the Cards -1Rl Tonight to get back tough losses today, what's everyone's thoughts about the game tonight? Obviously both bullpens will be a bit exhausted from last night, and I could see the cards relying on Mainwright to go strong today, while the Mets Maine may need bullpen help earlier, which may not be there today. I know Rev already posted this play, just seeing what ppl think of throwing extra juice on this game tonight?

[khaden]

...

I am rooting for you...are you the only one on them? I know rev passed...see they are off to a great start! GL...Did you go all in?

all in meaning what my unit size called for this week to recoup the a and b losses plus the profit for the series. Even if this would have lost it would not have wiped out my profits for this week. I was up positive units on plays I made outside the system plays we are all playing so I played it through. Now having said that as we increase our unit size through out the season come July and August--C bets are going to be some scary shit!!! I started out at $50 per series, and I am increasing by $25 per week. So starting Mon I will be at $100 per series. So right now it's manageable.

[G's pks]

Guys just wanted to pass this on stingyrivers thread is under attack by a couple of really out of hand posters!

If it happens here or in my thread please guys get together and hit the red triangle in the top right corner of the post you want removed because of nonsense it has started going back and forth in the last hour in there...report posts get removed when necessary i had to do it last year!

[G's pks]

all in meaning what my unit size called for this week to recoup the a and b losses plus the profit for the series. Even if this would have lost it would not have wiped out my profits for this week. I was up positive units on plays I made outside the system plays we are all playing so I played it through. Now having said that as we increase our unit size through out the season come July and August--C bets are going to be some scary shit!!! I started out at $50 per series, and I am increasing by $25 per week. So starting Mon I will be at $100 per series. So right now it's manageable.

Ok so not all in your wording was a little off! I cannot stomach the large "C" bets having lost a large one last year and a gigantic one years ago. I am running on my conservative system which i discussed earlier in here today.

I am glad you cashed!

[spankadank]

G's, I hope I am not one of those out of hand posters you are talking about. If I am I do apologize.

[G's pks]

G's, I hope I am not one of those out of hand posters you are talking about. If I am I do apologize.

No not you at all! The guy that said he hopes you all get murdered tonight, especially the way he worded it and all his other insults toward you and mizzoujohn...what a moron to make a statement like that... Khaden reported all the posts in stingyrivers thread from the goofs that moved in and tried to ruin it. That is the problem with someone taking over a thread and not monitoring it...very easy to ruin... Hopefully the mods move in and clean up and ban that person permanently... Arguing back and forth...even insults is one thing but that guy went way to far...

[TNT28]

Thinking of throwing a couple extra units on the Cards -1Rl Tonight to get back tough losses today, what's everyone's thoughts about the game tonight? Obviously both bullpens will be a bit exhausted from last night, and I could see the cards relying on Mainwright to go strong today, while the Mets Maine may need bullpen help earlier, which may not be there today. I know Rev already posted this play, just seeing what ppl think of throwing extra juice on this game tonight?

I'm putting in extra cash to win back what was lost on the A and B bet with the Brewers since I didn't play it. I was up to doing $150 units so I added what I lost plus the $150 I stood to profit plus another $150 I would be trying to win from this upcoming Cardinals series, and divided it in half. So I tried to win $562.69 on the Phillies -1RL earlier and they fvcked me and now I'm doing the same on the Cards tonight. If you follow TennisBabes picks, she is going big on the Cards too. Apparently the Mets will be playing pretty depleted.

[doublej95]

Good Luck to you TNT, hope you win but thats the wrong type of chasing. Money Managment is advice I would give.

[TNT28]

Good Luck to you TNT, hope you win but thats the wrong type of chasing. Money Managment is advice I would give.

Thanks doublej95. If I don't hit this tho I won't be wiped out, just down a little over a couple grand in profits and I'll just start back over with $100 units again and let it go. It's only April and I'm definitely not going broke with the potential profits in the future.

[press coverage]

Guys, I learned the hard way not to get greedy with "chase" systems. For me, minimizing risk is a huge part of my overall philosophy. So, I've adopted the following betting structure with a unit equaling $100. For each "A" bet I try to win 1 unit or $100. For each "B" bet I try to win back what I lost on the "A" bet + 1/2 unit or $50. For each "C" bet I try to win back what I lost on the "A" and "B" bets + 1/4 unit or $25. So, I won't win as many total units as everyone else, but my risk will be much smaller and I'm guessing that my ROI will be similar. Here is an example of how I bet the Brewers series:

"A" bet: $149 to win $100. Total loss of $149
"B" bet: $308.45 to win $199 ($149 from "A" bet loss + $50 profit). Total loss of $308.45 + 149 = $457.45
"C" bet: $521.05 to win $482.45 ($149 from "A" bet + $308.45 from "B" bet + $25 profit)

So, I only end up winning 1/4 unit or $25, but my total risk was significantly less.

Another thing that I will occasionally do is play the -1 RL on an "A" bet if the juice is too high (example was STL on Friday). If the bet ends up pushing then I will NOT continue the chase. Again, this will cause me to win fewer units, but will also significantly reduce my risk.

Take it for what it's worth. Everyone has to take responsibility for how they play these, but wanted to give you guys another option to consider.

Let's get the Cards in tonight and get ready for next week.

[reverend]

Am I missing something here I didn't know Rev had a system going with the Sox's, where are you guys coming up with this.

I did not have a play on the Red Sox. There is another thread that is playing by a strict set of rules, and the Red Sox are a team that they feel like should be played at home no matter the situation.

[reverend]

There has been some solid posts in this thread today. I have had a few potential new "ideas" about what I am doing in this thread. Like I said in my systems post earlier in this thread, this is going to be a "fluid" system. There could be minor tweaks along the way. I will be posting later tonight about some of the ideas I have, as well as the next set of series that being on Monday and Tuesday.

[reverend]

Is it worth it to place the C on Boston? I'm struggling with it. They are a train wreck!! Help, Rev.

Boston has been a very interesting team this season. Honestly, I thought they would be one of the top 3 teams in the league this year, and that may very play itself out, but up till now, they just are not hitting.

About the C bet, I would feel confident with them because Lackey is on the mound and has thrown very well in each of his outings. It will be Niemann's first start at Boston, which can be overwhelming. But just like today with the Brewers, you have to sit down and evaluate where you are with your bankroll and the risk you would be taking. It is not an "all or nothing" either, you can manage it in many ways.

I'm pulling for ya!

[doublej95]

Looking forward to hearing your ideas Rev, but I think you have a good set of systems going right now. Let me pass my crazy idea about a system. The Orioles are appearing to one of the worst teams again this year, last year they only swept one series. Against the Phillies, can you believe that. I was thinking about a chase system going against them in each series. Is that a dumb idea or is it worth looking into more?

[khaden]

...

Looking forward to hearing your ideas Rev, but I think you have a good set of systems going right now. Let me pass my crazy idea about a system. The Orioles are appearing to one of the worst teams again this year, last year they only swept one series. Against the Phillies, can you believe that. I was thinking about a chase system going against them in each series. Is that a dumb idea or is it worth looking into more?

I think it's a good idea-- if nothing else at least when they are playing the better teams

[doublej95]

looking more into the past in 07 they had one series sweep (Tampa) 08 they did not sweep any series and 09 they had the Phillies and Blue Jays. But I would not count the Jays sweep as it was the last series of the season in October and tend to stop baseball when the call ups are made.

Up coming series for Orioles: Seattle, Boston, Yankees, Boston, Yankees. I don't see any sweeps happening even the way Red Sox's are playing.

[Cosmo213]

Cards win and cover!

[ironchef69]

Cashed it at end! nice job reverend!!

[goldseeker]

Nice job, best of luck tomorrow

[reverend]

Sunday April 18:

FAV System:

A Bet: Cardinals (-1 RL) 1.87 Units to Win 1 Unit

Sunday April 18:


FAV System: 1-0 (+1 Unit)

[G's pks]

Good job Rev...

[Grosshhit]

good luck this week Rev, looks like not as many games but still some moneymakers out there

[dyeguy]

I did not have a play on the Red Sox. There is another thread that is playing by a strict set of rules, and the Red Sox are a team that they feel like should be played at home no matter the situation.

This is another example of playing a system legalistically. For someone to bet on a team that is playing that badly is just not logical no matter how good of a team they are on paper. That's why you use the system as the starting point for your betting but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't apply logic and discretion. There's no point in being bound to a strict set of system rules. Here's today's deep thought:

The system is there to serve us, we are not there to serve the system.

[dume walker]

all in meaning what my unit size called for this week to recoup the a and b losses plus the profit for the series. Even if this would have lost it would not have wiped out my profits for this week. I was up positive units on plays I made outside the system plays we are all playing so I played it through. Now having said that as we increase our unit size through out the season come July and August--C bets are going to be some scary shit!!! I started out at $50 per series, and I am increasing by $25 per week. So starting Mon I will be at $100 per series. So right now it's manageable.

Really happy for you and your Brewers win today, Khaden. Would have been even happier if I had pulled the trigger as well. Was ready to go, but I'm following Rev's advice on these picks since he's the one doing the hard homework. When he said pass I stepped aside and watched from the sidelines.

One word of caution about pressing series bets so aggressively... Figure for every $25 you increase the size of your target profit for the series, you're also increasing your potential loss by about 16 times that much (which will flucuate, of course, depending on the money lines). So for each $25 you pump up to win, you're increasing a potential series loss by about $400. At $100 per series, your potential loss for a 3 game sweep is about $1,600.

Forgive me for sticking my nose in if you'd rather not hear this. But as I've mentioned before I played this kind of system for about a year and a half and learned a good deal along the way -- and at a price. It's been my experience that for chase systems, Bankroll Rules. You have to have the bank to make those C bets comfortably. Otherwise, you'll back out from fear or jump in with a "screw it -- either I win or go down in flames" attitude.

Anyway, something I just wanted to pass along to all who might be interested. Factor your potential loss at about 16 times your potential win. Factor that again by how many series you might be playing at once. If you're playing 5 series over a weekend at a target rate of $100 each and a potential loss of $1,600 each, you're staring down the barrel of a worst-case scenario of an 8K loss.

Again, just my two cents worth. I'll go f*** off now and watch the last quarter of the Suns/Blazers game.

[SkivChef]

Rev, whats up for 2morrow?

[G's pks]

GL guys next week my leans are up for the new series in my thread...will not post them here to confuse anyone when you post yours for next week... GL G.

[Edge29]

Tomorrow is interesting, I don't think a lot of these series are playable. I'll be interested to see what Rev thinks of them. The Angels and Mariners are the two I see potentially being playable, and maybe Colorado on the road at Washington, but that one scares me a bit after the way Washington played this weekend.

[dyeguy]

Tomorrow is interesting, I don't think a lot of these series are playable. I'll be interested to see what Rev thinks of them. The Angels and Mariners are the two I see potentially being playable, and maybe Colorado on the road at Washington, but that one scares me a bit after the way Washington played this weekend.

Yeah, none of them looks as easy as some of the ones we have been playing. I like SF at SD alot better than Colorado at Wash for a situation series though. Seatlle is probably the only easy choice for the Home Series Sweep system.