Reverend's 2010 MLB

**DMB40** · 04-16-10, 09:57 PM

reverend I got a question for you. I read through the threads with you and stingy before the season and I am doing the home team chase. (getting the one win at home and stopping) that was talked about.

Im doing NYY BOS PHI STL and against KC WASH PITT SD on the road.

Now for example on 4-19 KC is in TOR would you stick with the system or just skip this play.
another one is Pitt @ Hou 4-23. I know the juice will be low but the main object is to not have the big sweep loss.

I am 10-0 so far and have 5 system plays today. thanks for all the insight.

**Djtrikee** · 04-16-10, 10:27 PM

I would like to thank you Reverend. St Louis was good for me, and your Philly guarenteed.

**reverend** · 04-17-10, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by reverend

Sorry about today's late post, but I am traveling and only have my phone to post.

Friday April 16

SERIES SYSTEM PICKS:

A Bet: Cubs ML

A Bet: Yankees ML

A Bet: Cardinals ML

A Bet: Twins ML

SITUATIONAL SERIES PICKS:

A Bet: Brewers ML

A Bet: Oakland ML

All the above picks are to win 1.5 Units.

Friday April 16:

5-1 (+7.5 Units)

I will be picking up the Brewers tomorrow on a B bet.

**reverend** · 04-17-10, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by reverend

Yes.

I will try and make a post later today, but I will be playing PHIL on the -1 RL to start the FAV System today.

Friday April 16:

FAV System:

1-0 (+1 Unit)

I will be posting the FAV plays in the same post as the other going forward. I was traveling today and was left to post from my phone.

Great start to the weekend at 6-1!

**ironchef69** · 04-17-10, 12:40 AM

**reverend** · 04-17-10, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by DMB40

reverend I got a question for you. I read through the threads with you and stingy before the season and I am doing the home team chase. (getting the one win at home and stopping) that was talked about.

Im doing NYY BOS PHI STL and against KC WASH PITT SD on the road.

Now for example on 4-19 KC is in TOR would you stick with the system or just skip this play.
another one is Pitt @ Hou 4-23. I know the juice will be low but the main object is to not have the big sweep loss.

I am 10-0 so far and have 5 system plays today. thanks for all the insight.

i would lean to say you will be alright backing those home teams. but like i mentioned in my systems post, be careful blindly backing certain teams in all situations. philly for example...if you have a series where they have their 3-5 pitchers throwing in that HR heavy ballpark, you should tread lightly. inside this thread, i am looking at a number of factors before backing these teams.

nice start to the season!

**reverend** · 04-17-10, 01:11 AM

Saturday April 17:

Situational System Play:

B Bet: Brewers (ML) 5.82 Units to Win 3.75 Units (1.5 Units Profit)

FAV System Play:

A Bet: Yankees (-1 RL) 1.28 Units to Win 1 Unit

**ironchef69** · 04-17-10, 01:23 AM

Let's cash it!!

**Djtrikee** · 04-17-10, 02:09 AM

I am thinking about bettting my whole bankroll of 200 on Yanks ML on Saturday. What do you think Rev? I know your record with FAV bets are pretty much guarenteed.

**Edge29** · 04-17-10, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by Djtrikee

I am thinking about bettting my whole bankroll of 200 on Yanks ML on Saturday. What do you think Rev? I know your record with FAV bets are pretty much guarenteed.

FAV bets are definitely not guaranteed. The FAV bet is for the highest ML favorite on the RL, and it too is a chase (I think Rev is probably doing it as a 4 game chase). I don't think anyone would ever tell you that putting 100% of your bankroll on one bet is a smart idea. There's no such thing as a guarantee.

**G's pks** · 04-17-10, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by Djtrikee

I am thinking about bettting my whole bankroll of 200 on Yanks ML on Saturday. What do you think Rev? I know your record with FAV bets are pretty much guarenteed.

Win or lose this is the wrong decision....

**dolphan34** · 04-17-10, 03:20 AM

How many games are you chasing your fav picks Rev?

**BetCash30** · 04-17-10, 04:07 AM

Could you explain a little bit more about your fav system reverend,because i cant find any information about this anywhere on this thread.
Thanks for the picks you are sending out by the way,great jobb reverend

Originally posted by reverend

Saturday April 17:

Situational System Play:

B Bet: Brewers (ML) 5.82 Units to Win 3.75 Units (1.5 Units Profit)

FAV System Play:

A Bet: Yankees (-1 RL) 1.28 Units to Win 1 Unit

**khaden** · 04-17-10, 07:51 AM

Nice work Rev--hope the Brew crew come through--the Nats are starting to make me a little nervous!

**GGPLAYER** · 04-17-10, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by reverend

Friday April 16:

5-1 (+7.5 Units)

I will be picking up the Brewers tomorrow on a B bet.

Rev I would like your take on some things and if you have addressed them before I apologize for asking again. But my results for the same games varied a bit because my book did NOT give me credit for the NYY win. I also played STL -1 so I got the push there. I ended up going 3-1-2. Would you suggest sticking with STL and/or NYY chase based on those results or just let it go and move on? I see you have NYY -1 for your Fav system so that sort of answers that question but have you had a case yet where you placed a -1 bet and it pushed? I just refuse to lay down on anything over -180. Stupid 9th inning let up cost me there and then the Mil blew it last too. Really annoyed with the NYY game becasue I get the feeling if they lost my book would have counted it then!

**Djtrikee** · 04-17-10, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by Edge29

FAV bets are definitely not guaranteed. The FAV bet is for the highest ML favorite on the RL, and it too is a chase (I think Rev is probably doing it as a 4 game chase). I don't think anyone would ever tell you that putting 100% of your bankroll on one bet is a smart idea. There's no such thing as a guarantee.

Cool, I was just asking because I seen the FAV records of 80-1 avg last three years.

**G's pks** · 04-17-10, 09:02 AM

Djtrikee...thanks for the points. Baseball has such a long season, survival and turning a profit is all it is about.

**Djtrikee** · 04-17-10, 09:22 AM

Yea that is true, I was just trying to double my bankroll early in the season. I started with 100, and have 240 right now. But your right It is a Long Season.

**Cosmo213** · 04-17-10, 09:37 AM

I really hope the Yankees come through today, I got SBR points on em!

**balls2wall** · 04-17-10, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by Djtrikee

Cool, I was just asking because I seen the FAV records of 80-1 avg last three years.

Yes, but that record would be for the chase system, not individual plays.

For instance the Brewers lost yesterday, but that will not count as a loss in the record keeping if they win one of the next two.

The one loss in your quote would be because the team lost all three games of the series, not just one game.

**Djtrikee** · 04-17-10, 10:09 AM

Ok I understand Balls2wall. Just a bit confused. I thought FAV Picks were a 1 play for the Top Favorite Team to win of the day. and the Series and Situational bets were for the Series.

**Djtrikee** · 04-17-10, 10:10 AM

I really think washington if under rated. But if I had to choose a winner everytime, I would do the over in every washington game, it just seems with Horrible Pitching and good Hitting..Washington's Games is always scoring over 10

**G's pks** · 04-17-10, 02:52 PM

Djtrikee nice call on the yanks but you seem to be doing great doubling your bankroll already...make it last and show a profit at years end. Never risk your whole bankroll that is for the desperate that are losing and cannot pick a winner.

**jolmscheid** · 04-17-10, 02:57 PM

Reverend...are we gonna get on the Brewers for a C Bet???

**G's pks** · 04-17-10, 02:57 PM

Guys in my system I have not been playing Milwaukee...the brewers look like they have run into a buzz saw...just be careful in game #3... if you are not up a comfortable amount from some of the other series wins...be careful, if you are on it bet an amount you are comfortable with....you have to survive to keep taking advantage of the system/systems you are playing.

And with that good luck for all of you going to a "C" bet on the Brewers tomorrow. I know what it is like to go to a big "c" bet and lose in the past...that is why I adjusted my system to take a loss in a "C" bet... To many system wins to let one system loss with a sweep ruin you... I had that happen too years ago.

The Rev has you going in the right direction... GL it is a long season boys...

**SkivChef** · 04-17-10, 02:58 PM

maybe we should move the brewers to the fade list

**G's pks** · 04-17-10, 03:15 PM

MIL - D. Davis
WAS - J. Marquis

-119
+112

-130
+110

-125
+105
some early lines for you guys tomorrow brewers slightly favored over Marquis tough pitching matchup... Marquis can look unhitable at times or walk everyone...

**serc** · 04-17-10, 03:16 PM

Good pick on NYY Rev! I was not able to play but appreciate your posts!

**Cosmo213** · 04-17-10, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by SkivChef

maybe we should move the brewers to the fade list

That's very tempting.

I'll be up 10 SBR points once the book credits the wins!

**Grosshhit** · 04-17-10, 03:52 PM

im laying off the brewers tomorrow, nats actually are playing pretty good ball and im up quite a lot after the last two weeks, so im taking tomorrow off and saving it till Monday

**khaden** · 04-17-10, 03:56 PM

I think I might just take the loss on the Brewers. I really didn't like this play and should have stayed off it. Tennis Babe had this as a play yesterday and she has been on fire so I played it and chased it today. Not sure--but I am def leaning towards passing the C bet. Will wait for input from Rev and G before making the final call.

**jolmscheid** · 04-17-10, 03:58 PM

Yeah...I will wait too...I am not sure about the Brewers either...I will wait for Rev and G as well...

**dyeguy** · 04-17-10, 04:09 PM

With the way the home favorites system is winning on the A bets I think that is where the money is. The situational series is much more likely to encounter a series loss or two and more chasing.

**khaden** · 04-17-10, 04:20 PM

..

Originally posted by dyeguy

With the way the home favorites system is winning on the A bets I think that is where the money is. The situational series is much more likely to encounter a series loss or two and more chasing.

I agree--I didn't post anything last night because I am totally on board with what Rev, Stingy,and G are doing. There is "flexibility" within the system but if you look at this pick it really didn't fit. Nats are playing well right now and they are a road fade and Mil isn't that great. It should have been a no play. Using the same rationale we decided to stay away from the Dodgers this series and they fall into the original guidelines and they hit on the A bet last night.

Unfortunately, I lost my discipline somewhat last night and played it as a double unit play (one on the A Bet and one as a Tennisbabe special) you can't argue the success on the A bets and Tennisbabe thus far.

For me, even though it would be a loss for this series, I am still up substantially for the week and will be receiving a very nicely stuffed envelope come Monday morning. So it would be nice to recoup the losses on the brewers, if the C bet should lose it could wipe out a very profitable week---if it was within the system I would play it, but I just might take the loss on this one.

**dyeguy** · 04-17-10, 04:26 PM

I would take the loss and split up what you lost on the next 3 of 4 series if you want or just move on. I agree that when you've already had a good week you hate to end on a big downer especially a play that you didn't feel great about to start with. I still think the Nats are good to fade on the road but maybe not at home against a mediocre team.