Reverend's 2010 MLB

[reverend]

Wednesday April 14:

Situational System Play:

(B) Bet: Atlanta (ML) 6.6 Units to Win 5 Units (2 Units Profit)

Wednesday April 14:

1-0 (+2 Units)


Easy winner on the braves, which brings our season record to 20-0 (+24.5 Units)

[IWinMyBets]

Fantastic! Way to Go Atlanta! Way to Go Rev.

[gushman]

Hell yeah. Solid winner in the Braves. Loving it

[reverend]

There is only 1 new series tomorrow with Baltimore visiting Oakland for 4 games. I am working through the match-ups tonight and will get back if I decide to play it. But other than that, we are looking at around 4-6 new series starting up on Friday.

[dume walker]

Nice call on Atlanta. Looking foward to your new picks.

[khaden]

well done so far this week Rev!!

Also, from the games I've been tracking it looks like the Fav chase on the RL has been looking solid as well-cant wait to start adding that in as well.

[reverend]

I figure after 20 wins, it might be good to do a little in depth analysis of what has happened so far. Because this is a new system for me, I am sure there are possible tweaks that can and should be made throughout the season. So, I want you guys to contribute and let me know if you see any opportunities or ways to improve what we are doing in here!

Raw data breakdown:

All Systems Combined:

20-0 (+24.5 Units)

A Bet Wins: 15
B Bet Wins: 4
C Bet Wins: 0
D Bet Wins: 1

*I want to throw in a little disclaimer with the D bet win we had during the 1st week with Boston. It was only for 1/2 a unit, and the ML in the first 2 games was very low (they were playing the yanks). This was also a situational series play, and looking back, I should not have played it in the first place. But with that being said, we did pick up 1/2 a unit on it.

Individual System Breakdown:

SERIES SYSTEM:

12-0 (+16 Units)

A Bet Wins: 11
B Bet Wins: 1
C Bet Wins: 0


SITUATIONAL SYSTEM:

8-0 (+8.5 Units)

A Bet Wins: 4
B Bet Wins: 3
C Bet Wins: 0
D Bet Wins: 1

[Law-Byrnes]

Very nice, always good to get it on the A bet so no sweating on the chase. BOL and keep up the good stuff.

[reverend]

Interesting fact to notice:

For those concerned about the high ML juice and how it compounds during a 3 game chase, over our first 20 wins I noticed something that stuck out to me. I am not sure if it is just a small sample size but here it is:

Of the 8 SITUATIONAL SYSTEM plays, all 8 would have won if you had bet them on the -1 RL

Of the 12 SERIES SYSTEM plays, 11 of the 12 would have won on the -1 RL

-with the only "push" coming yesterday when Detroit beat KC by 1 run. if you had been playing the -1 RL, you would have pushed on the B bet and you would have played todays DET/KC game as a B bet. but it would have lost. so you would be down about 3-4 units after the DET series.

I bring this up to point out the fact that we would have had very similar results so far by betting every game on the -1 RL, and would have had a lot less money on the table due to the lower juice when playing the -1RL. We would have lost about 3-4 units on the DET series, but we would still be up 20 Units with less risk.

This is something I am going to keep tracking going forward. Just an FYI

[mizzoujohn]

Rev, I've been playing on the -1RL with good success (minus KC/Det, although after the push I took my 1 unit loss and moved on, luckily). I am considering playing -1RL, ML, ML. If a game 1 push, series over. If a game 1 win, series over. If a game 1 loss on the -1RL, play the ML in games 2 and 3. Seems the only way to avoid a series that goes L-D or L-L-D from turning into a loss even when a team wins one of the games by 1 run. Even though we are losing a few series wins that start off with a 1 run win. I still think it might be worth it to hold down Game 1 (and therefore games 2 and 3) risk amounts.

[TNT28]

Hey guys, just so you know, tomorrow is a STRONG PLAY on the Oakland A's via Pimike's thread. For those that don't know, he is considered one of the best, if not THE best capper on SBR so maybe we start the chase after tomorrow's game? I'll be waiting for Rev's call.

[dyeguy]

Hey guys, just so you know, tomorrow is a STRONG PLAY on the Oakland A's via Pimike's thread. For those that don't know, he is considered one of the best, if not THE best capper on SBR so maybe we start the chase after tomorrow's game? I'll be waiting for Rev's call.

Why would we wait for the second game? Our system would be betting on Oakland.

[dyeguy]

Rev, I've been playing on the -1RL with good success (minus KC/Det, although after the push I took my 1 unit loss and moved on, luckily). I am considering playing -1RL, ML, ML. If a game 1 push, series over. If a game 1 win, series over. If a game 1 loss on the -1RL, play the ML in games 2 and 3. Seems the only way to avoid a series that goes L-D or L-L-D from turning into a loss even when a team wins one of the games by 1 run. Even though we are losing a few series wins that start off with a 1 run win. I still think it might be worth it to hold down Game 1 (and therefore games 2 and 3) risk amounts.

I have done the exact same thing on some game 1's with high juice. It makes sense when it gets to -200 and above.

[khaden]

Hey guys, just so you know, tomorrow is a STRONG PLAY on the Oakland A's via Pimike's thread. For those that don't know, he is considered one of the best, if not THE best capper on SBR so maybe we start the chase after tomorrow's game? I'll be waiting for Rev's call.

The A's are the A Bet for us--we are playing AGAINST Baltimore on road series--unless Rev would see something that would suggest differently

[reverend]

Thursday April 15:

Series System Play:

A Bet: Oakland (ML) 2.25 Units to Win 1.5 Units

[BamaCBass]

Interesting fact to notice:

For those concerned about the high ML juice and how it compounds during a 3 game chase, over our first 20 wins I noticed something that stuck out to me. I am not sure if it is just a small sample size but here it is:

Of the 8 SITUATIONAL SYSTEM plays, all 8 would have won if you had bet them on the -1 RL

Of the 12 SERIES SYSTEM plays, 11 of the 12 would have won on the -1 RL

-with the only "push" coming yesterday when Detroit beat KC by 1 run. if you had been playing the -1 RL, you would have pushed on the B bet and you would have played todays DET/KC game as a B bet. but it would have lost. so you would be down about 3-4 units after the DET series.

I bring this up to point out the fact that we would have had very similar results so far by betting every game on the -1 RL, and would have had a lot less money on the table due to the lower juice when playing the -1RL. We would have lost about 3-4 units on the DET series, but we would still be up 20 Units with less risk.

This is something I am going to keep tracking going forward. Just an FYI

I've been playing to win a half unit on the ML and risking a half unit on the RL. Reduces exposure, increases profit and it it wins by one, then I move on to next series.

[khaden]

"I've been playing to win a half unit on the ML and risking a half unit on the RL. Reduces exposure, increases profit and it it wins by one, then I move on to next series".

I know Im going to sound stupid on this but I've been trying to figure out where and how you can play a -1 RL and wasn't getting it. Is this how you guys are playing this? So I get this straight there is not a book that offers this line you play the bets as explained above to create it yourself?

Next question--is this how we are going to play the Fav system when it starts next week or just simply play the -1 1/2 RL? Sorry for the stupidity but I've been confused about this.

[Cosmo213]

Playing -1 RL is usually done with a combination of the ML and -1.5 RL. There's a spreadsheet attached in this thread and elsewhere that is used to calculate how much to wager for each depending on the odds for the team in question and how much you're trying to win. I made a post here with instructions on how it works.

To get the spreadsheet, go back to the main baseball handicapping page, find this thread and click the paperclip icon on the right side. You'll see all files attached in this thread, one will be the -1 RL Calculator.

[jolmscheid]

Let's go A's...and MizzouJohn...your money management you do -1RL, then ML, then ML right??

[reverend]

HOW TO PLAY THE -1 RL


I have had many ask about the -1 RL, so I will post the spreadsheet for figuring it out along with an example. I think it is a very important tool to have in your pocket!


EXAMPLE

Houston @ St. Louis
ML: -220
-1.5 RL: -110

To "create" a -1 RL you will make the following 2 bets:

Bet 1: Risk $115.25 to Win $52.38 on the ML
Bet 2: Risk $52.38 to Win $47.62 on the -1.5 RL


With these 2 bets, you have just created a -1 RL. And this is how the bet could play out:

1) St. Louis wins by 2+ runs: you win both bets for a profit of $100

2) St. Louis wins by 1 run: you win $52.38 on the ML bet and lose $52.38 on the -1.5 RL Bet for a total of $0 (PUSH)

3) St. Louis loses the game: you lose both bets which amounts to $167.63


So, by playing the game on the -1 RL, in the event of a loss, instead of losing $220 on a regular ML bet, you just lose $167.63

But what you give up for having to risk less compared to the ML bet is the "win" you would get if St. Louis wins by 1 run.

So, as you can see, this is a great way to lower the juice you are having to pay during a chase series, but at the same time, you will probably miss a few wins because of the times when your team wins by 1 run, but you "PUSH".


Hope this helps!

-1 RL CALCULATOR IS ATTACHED IN THE NEXT POST

[reverend]

-1 rl calculator is attached

[mizzoujohn]

Let's go A's...and MizzouJohn...your money management you do -1RL, then ML, then ML right??

This is what I am leaning towards, yes. You will lose a handful of game 1 pushes, however, on 2 and 3 game chases your risk is reduced in games 2 and 3. Best of luck!

[mizzoujohn]

whoops sorry

[TNT28]

Why would we wait for the second game? Our system would be betting on Oakland.

The A's are the A Bet for us--we are playing AGAINST Baltimore on road series--unless Rev would see something that would suggest differently

Oops, sorry guys, thought Baltimore was the pick

[terrortwylight]

rev, thanks for the RL calculator.. pretty awesome! BOL to you, sir

[BernardMadoff]

-1 runline kinda defeats the purpose of chasing for no series sweeps. It does minimize losses since we sent completely certain if a team will get swept or not but u will certainly have fewer wins since some games are decided by one run.

[reverend]

-1 runline kinda defeats the purpose of chasing for no series sweeps. It does minimize losses since we sent completely certain if a team will get swept or not but u will certainly have fewer wins since some games are decided by one run.

you are correct bernard. by playing the -1RL, you are somewhat defeating the system, but at the same time, it is a way to minimize risk if that is what you are after. another option would be to just lower your unit size.

[Petman]

Nice win on A's, hope to continue tomorrow

[peterw111]

Another AAA grade selection Reverend

[Grosshhit]

Lets have another good weekend Rev!

[Greatest]

Thank you reveren for your indepth analysis on the system, will definitely be paying a close lookout on your system. I do have a few systems running myself, something like your situational system..

[ikon808]

[ikon808]

[mizzoujohn]

-1 runline kinda defeats the purpose of chasing for no series sweeps. It does minimize losses since we sent completely certain if a team will get swept or not but u will certainly have fewer wins since some games are decided by one run.

I'm playing -1RL on game 1 because, for me, it's worth it to miss a handful of game 1 winners for the benefit of having to lay less money on games 2 and especially 3, and if we encounter a loss, losing a bit less. For me, thats worth it. The anxiety of having 1/3 less money on the table is worth missing a few wins. Maybe I'll change my mind if I start missing quite a few wins. Hasn't been the case yet, though.
John

[StewiE]

lets continue the good run today!