Reverend's 2010 MLB

[G's pks]

Just wanted to stop in and wish you guys luck... Some of the people who have been at sbr for a while know I won using a winning chase system last year and am doing it again this year also. I had to have posts deleted daily because so many were saying I could not win. As the system continued to win the negative comments and posts I needed the mods to delete disappeared.

Once in a while I would like to drop in with a few ideas, suggestions and thoughts. Looks all well up to now, but everyone here and in my thread needs to realize there will be losses within some series. A good idea is to have a section in your record keeping that shows this. So say you have a record of 25 and 0 in series play but 15 individual losses. Some liked it much better when I kept a sub area showing a complete record of as an example in this case might be 25 series times 3...75 games minus out say...15 losses...so 60-15..total games listed separately... What this does is make people aware that these are individual wins within a series and not a perfect record...just a thought GL...these would be kept on only actual games you bet..not leans..

[G's pks]

Not sure if you guys plan on using more than one system but I added a third system for a while which was a road chase based on best road teams. Less juice but confused some people. My first system was revised into the second system which simply added some filters. Here is how I had my record listed...copied from my 09 thread

G's recordkeeping
Bball picks 26-5-2picks (Counting system series baseball picks (60-7-2)
Total 68- 8-2 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1 plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
System #2(28-1) games within series (28-15)
System #2 +12.54 Units

Shows total units up 12.54 (I bet much smaller than you guys), separates my picks from the system, total picks within system #2 28 wins 15 losses. Just think it will work better if everyone is aware there are losses within the series.

Money management is the key...I did one of these chases over 20 years ago and got wiped out! Just do not think every series wins. Usually yes...but not always... I lost back then because of chasing to large...now I am fine...

Last year several of us got crushed and had to work back from a 4 game sweep by the Rockies in Philly... So guys expect losses especially within series...there will be losses within.

[reverend]

Reverend's Betting Strategies and Bankroll Management

Intro
I will be playing 2 different systems this season and each system also has a slight variation to it, giving us 4 systems that will come into play. I have done countless hours of backtesting over the fall and winter and feel very confident about what will be played inside this thread. Both systems use a chase style of betting, and this is not for everybody. The chase betting progression will have you risking a large number of units on C and D bets to win a much smaller amount. With that on the table, both of these systems have a high percentage of winners in the A and B bets, so hopefully we will not be stretched out to many times this season.

I have never been a big poster on forums, but I thought I would give it a go this season to offer some insight, share my research and ideas, and gain some accountability from the guys who will follow along and contribute in this thread. I hope we can build a solid following in here and bounce ideas and thoughts off of each other throughout the season.

I have never been a big "systems" type bettor. I do not like being bound by hard and fast rules at all times. I like to have the option to lay off of and pick up certain bets without feeling bad about it. I am a huge baseball fan and feel as if I know the game very well, so I like the option to have some wiggle room. With that being said, a few close friends pointed out a few interesting MLB trends and that is when I began looking into these 2 systems. So, I will do my best to outline these systems, but just know that I always have the option to pass up a series or game.

Many are already up-to-date on the 2 systems that will be played, so if I do not cover every aspect of it, or you have questions, please ask. I am not an "ego" guy, and I love the dialogue over this stuff, so ask away as questions arise. I only ask that we try and keep this thread free from negative detractors. I know they will surface, but if you disagree with something in here, just be civil and kind. We are each risking our own money and at the end of the day, we only have to answer to ourselves about the decisions we make.


THE SERIES SYSTEM

The Series System is going to be our bread and butter inside this thread. The basic idea of this system is that we are betting that certain teams will NOT get swept at home as well as betting that certain teams will NOT sweep on the road. This system looks at 3 and 4 game series only (no 2 game series) and ends on the last day of August (no September series).

-What makes this system unique is that you have to identify these teams on the fly during the season. That is what this thread is for, we want quality discussion on teams and match-ups. I have gone back over the past 4 years for each team and tried to do this, but knowing that teams change from year to year, we will be making these decisions on a week by week basis.

-Another key component is the issue of pitching match-ups. This is vital to my capping, so if a top tier team is playing a 3 game home series in which we would usually be backing them, but they are throwing their 3-5 pitchers, then we might be laying off of that series. It just depends. That is exactly why I want wiggle room in these plays from week to week.

-Our goal in this system is to not lose a series the entire year. I will be using a progressive money management method on this system. But again, I am not going to be locked in to it exactly. I will always post my picks in BOLD and list how many units I am trying to win on each play. But the general progression will be after every 20 games won, I will increase my "units to be won" by 50%. After looking at the entire season, there are over 200 series that could fall into this system. In trying to be conservative, I am shooting for 100 wins, but could easily see 150 wins. I will list the betting progression below (beginning at $100/Unit):

Games 1-20
Betting to win $100 per series
After 20 wins: +$2,000
Games 21-40
Betting to win $150 per series
After 20 wins: +$3,000
Games 41-60
Betting to win $225 per series
After 20 wins: +$4,500
Games 61-80
Betting to win $325 per series
After 20 wins: +$6,500
Games 81-100
Betting to win $500 per series
After 20 wins: +$10,000
Games 101-120
Betting to win $700 per series
After 20 wins: +$14,000
Games 121-140
Betting to win $1000 per series
After 20 wins: +$20,000
Games 141-150
Betting to win $1500 per series
After 10 wins: +$15,000

After 150 Wins: Profit of $75,000

As you can see, the potential is there. If you are not a $100 bettor, just simply divide the numbers by how much you are playing for. What I found to be true over the last 4 seasons, was that June-August are the really great months for this system. I imagine it is because the top tier teams are really playing well by then, and the lowest tier teams have realized that they have no hope and are just trying to get through the summer. So this lines up perfectly with our progression, as we will be betting more per unit through the summer months.


THE SITUATIONAL SYSTEM

The Situational System is played in the exact same fashion as the Series System above, but here we will not be betting on distinct 3 or 4 games series always, but we will be looking for favorable 3-4 game stretches where I believe a team will get at least 1 win. This comes in 2 different variations:

1) You have a top tier team playing on the road and you believe they will get at least 1 win during the series. This was the case with 1 of my first plays where Philly opened the season on the road at Washington. As well as Boston playing their 2nd series as KC.

2) You have a stretch of games that you like and want to play it as a situational chase. This is a little more subjective, and because of that, I will always try to list out my reasons and thinking behind these picks. Many times these plays will revolve around a team that has 6 straight home or road games. For instance, I had a play on Arizona in their first game of the season against SD (very bad team). I won that play, but Arizona still had 2 more games against SD and then PIT came to town for 3 games. So, I had Arizona playing 2 of the worst teams in the league. I could have waited for the PIT series for another "Series System" play, but I decided to play them in game 2 vs. SD and was prepared to chase into the PIT series if necessary. I ended up winning game 3 of the SD series and then played Arizona in a normal "Series System" play against PIT which we won on the B bet. So instead of winning 2 units in Arizona's first 2 series, we won 3 units. These will not be as common, but they will pop up throughout the season.

I will be combing these 2 systems in terms of the progressive money management system. So, once I have 20 wins combined between these 2, I will be increasing my unit size. But I will try and keep the records for each separate.


THE FAV SYSTEM

The FAV System is a system that I will be playing on the side for less units, at least in the beginning of the season. It is based on playing the largest favorite of the day (based on the opening number) on the -1RL and chasing for 4 games. So you will have 1 bet per day using this system.

-In 2009, this system went 86-1 (+57 Units)
-In 2008, this system went 88-1 (+55 Units)
-In 2007, this system went 80-2 (+18 Units)

As you can see, this system is profitable. I am still trying to decide what type of money management program I am going to use with it, but for now, I will be flat betting this system.

-In my backtesting, I decided to see what how a system based on the 2nd highest favorite of the day would play out, and I found it was very similar to the results above. So, I may be playing this as a 2nd system on its own to try and double the Units won over the course of the season.


So that is what I will be playing in this thread. I know this is not completely comprehensive, but it gives you a foundation for what we will be playing in this thread this season. Feel free to ask questions. Also, feel free to post your thoughts and ideas as we go through the season.

Thanks,
REV

[reverend]

I am going to see if the mods can move the above post to the front of the thread.

thanks guys

[jbizzle]

Thanks for the great Info REV!! Im tailin ya! BOL!

[dolphan34]

Thank you Reverend this does look awesome. I was just curious what % of your bankroll a $100 unit play is? I am a very small better and only have a $200 bankroll, do you think that starting out at $5 a unit is the right place? Thanks a lot.

[jolmscheid]

Good call Rev...so you said that you are betting the favs system STRAIGHT?? You mean as a chase though right? Sorry just a bit confused...thanks

[balls2wall]

Thank you Reverend this does look awesome. I was just curious what % of your bankroll a $100 unit play is? I am a very small better and only have a $200 bankroll, do you think that starting out at $5 a unit is the right place? Thanks a lot.

That looks about right to me

If you went $10 you could really stretch your roll thin if a couple of series went to B and C bets, especially with there being so many plays and high juice.


JMO

[doubledime]

I would just like to say that Rev and G have done their homework. Let's all have a grat year. Thanks guys BOL to us all.

[G's pks]

Thank you Reverend this does look awesome. I was just curious what % of your bankroll a $100 unit play is? I am a very small better and only have a $200 bankroll, do you think that starting out at $5 a unit is the right place? Thanks a lot.

You could also look at my thread which is based on smaller bets. Take a look at this years thread and last years shows you exactly how to manage your money and get a nice return. Basically the same type of plays, often will be the same.

I take my system plays and then limit it down to a best pick by strength and once it gets rolling usually bet all of them...limited to top 5 plays.

[G's pks]

I would just like to say that Rev and G have done their homework. Let's all have a grat year. Thanks guys BOL to us all.

Thanks ..... I put in over 3 hours for filtering I do manually not to miss a stat before each new set of series begins...and yes I stop and think about each one.


This will work ignore the haters and just carefully manage your money.

[Edge29]

Thank you Reverend this does look awesome. I was just curious what % of your bankroll a $100 unit play is? I am a very small better and only have a $200 bankroll, do you think that starting out at $5 a unit is the right place? Thanks a lot.

I'm in a similar situation, and I think 2.5% of the bankroll is a pretty reasonable place to start. Obviously Rev can give his guidence, but anything over 5% would be just asking for problems, and considering the fact that you could have a rough A bet day, you could be in trouble in some cases even there. So, as someone in a similar boat, I think $5 sounds about right.

[jbizzle]

what do you think about the Giants ML vs RL of 1.5 Rev? With the change of pitchers now. Thanks!

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

hey rev great site and thank you for all the work your doing going to join you in the quest it's matteo from beantown

[Thatswhatshesaid]

what do you think about the Giants ML vs RL of 1.5 Rev? With the change of pitchers now. Thanks!

Good call. I had no idea about the pitching change and just had to put in a new bet. The line was much highter than the other one I had so I did the -1 wager. Hope it hits like Philly and StL.

[doubledime]

April 12:

(A) Bet: Detroit (ML) 2.8 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(A) Bet: St. Louis (ML) 3.22 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(A) Bet: Philadelphia (-1 RL) 3 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(A) Bet: San Francisco (ML) 2.47 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(A) Bet: Atlanta (ML) 3 Units to Win 2 Units

Quick question. If Atlanta is an A play and they do not play on Tuesday when do you play the B play for them? Keep up the good work.

[dyeguy]

Quick question. If Atlanta is an A play and they do not play on Tuesday when do you play the B play for them? Keep up the good work.

Whenever the second game is. Atlanta certainly gave this one their all didn't they? 17-2 now. Nice work.

[jolmscheid]

What are the plays for tomorrow??

[JW Cash]

Great Job Rev and G.....

...absolutely outstanding.........

[IWinMyBets]

Leave it to the SD Padres to "F" up a Great Day....

Let's get those Friars on the "B" bet.

Fantastic Work Rev.

[reverend]

Thank you Reverend this does look awesome. I was just curious what % of your bankroll a $100 unit play is? I am a very small better and only have a $200 bankroll, do you think that starting out at $5 a unit is the right place? Thanks a lot.

i think you are in the correct ballpark starting out around $5 a unit. i think anywhere from $5-10 would be alright. it basically boils down to being able to cover multiple C bets if we were to have a few in play at the same time. i think this would be very rare, but could happen. i know stingy is playing very aggressive hoping to build his roll in this first month.

hope that helps...

[reverend]

Good call Rev...so you said that you are betting the favs system STRAIGHT?? You mean as a chase though right? Sorry just a bit confused...thanks

sorry for the confusion, i am using a 4 game chase on the FAV system. but as for now, i am not increasing my units after X-number of wins.

[reverend]

I'm in a similar situation, and I think 2.5% of the bankroll is a pretty reasonable place to start. Obviously Rev can give his guidence, but anything over 5% would be just asking for problems, and considering the fact that you could have a rough A bet day, you could be in trouble in some cases even there. So, as someone in a similar boat, I think $5 sounds about right.

edge, you are correct. i think anywhere from 2-5% is the correct place to be. again, it comes down to how much risk you want to take on. but we need to all remember, it is a long season...main goal early on is to make sure you can stay in the game.

[khaden]

Rev nice work today--I ended up playing the Rangers as an add on A bet; obviously we have B bets on Braves and Tigers coming up. Did you start the Fav system yet or does that start next week? Also, are you using the opening lines on SBR to determine who will be played that day?

[reverend]

what do you think about the Giants ML vs RL of 1.5 Rev? With the change of pitchers now. Thanks!

jbizzle,

you bring up a great point that i did not touch on in my systems post above.

if you are using online sportsbooks, and have this option, make sure you pick "action" for the other team, because you dont want your bet cancelled if there is a pitching change for the team you are betting against.

[reverend]

Quick question. If Atlanta is an A play and they do not play on Tuesday when do you play the B play for them? Keep up the good work.

since atlanta got blown out today, we will be playing the B bet on their next game against SD, which will be on wednesday

[reverend]

Whenever the second game is. Atlanta certainly gave this one their all didn't they? 17-2 now. Nice work.

i was really surprised by the game today, but i did notice the ML dropped from -145 to -115, which really had me wondering. i guess they knew something we didnt.

but i really like the hanson kid who throws next for atlanta!

[SkivChef]

Rev, what's your starting bankroll to win a 100 a game? It's got to be large

[Time is Money]

Nice capping, gonna keep an eye on this thread.

[reverend]

Tuesday April 13:

(A) Bet: Colorado (ML) 2.13 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(A) Bet: Yankees (ML) 2.48 Units to Win 1.5 Units

(B) Bet: Detroit (ML) 5.76 Units to Win 4.3 Units (1.5 Units Profit)

[reverend]

Rev nice work today--I ended up playing the Rangers as an add on A bet; obviously we have B bets on Braves and Tigers coming up. Did you start the Fav system yet or does that start next week? Also, are you using the opening lines on SBR to determine who will be played that day?

Nice job with the Rangers today. I had leans on them, white sox and rays, but decided to hold off. feel free to post your picks in the thread when you have added series you like.

i am probably going to start the FAV system later on this week once the starting rotations have been through 2 complete times. as far as what opening lines to use, this is going to be a little subjective. i will probably be using pinnacles openers. if there is a discrepancy though, we can talk through it in this thread.

[reverend]

Rev, what's your starting bankroll to win a 100 a game? It's got to be large

i started with a 2K bankroll. i am playing it a bit aggressive, at 5%, but i know i can pull in more if need be. but lets hope that is never the case.

[khaden]

Ok--I actually got the Rangers pick from you--I wanted to play both them and the Rays but just played the Tex. Are scratching the dodgers series against the Dbacks?

[reverend]

2 huge disappointments for me today in terms of detroit and atlanta. detroit had a 2-0 lead with 2 outs and miggy dropped a pop up in foul territory that would have been the third out. of course, a few pitches later, the batter drops a 2 run bomb, which shook scherzer. he proceeded to unravel from there. and i have no clue what happened to atlanta today. i was suspect when i saw the ML drop from -145 to
-115, but i feel confident with the next 2 arms atlanta has going.

lets cash with colorado and yanks tomorrow on the a bets, clean up the b bet with dontrelle and the tigers and then on wednesday, win the b bet with hanson and the bravos!

[reverend]

Ok--I actually got the Rangers pick from you--I wanted to play both them and the Rays but just played the Tex. Are scratching the dodgers series against the Dbacks?

i am on the fence with the dodgers/arizona series. i say that because if the dodgers dont win game 1, i am not sure they will win a game in the series. i really like kershaw tomorrow, but after that, in games 2 and 3, i lean to the arizona pitchers. and the worst would be going into game 3 of the series with a c bet and having to beat haren...even though he was bad last time out.

so...my thought is that the dodgers win tomorrow, but i am not going to play it as a series chase, because of the risk in games 2 and 3. and i am not sold on how good the dodgers are going to be this season yet.