any idea how a 2 game chase looks with the nationals and royals of the league?
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works out about the same as the best teams.... as it is, last year from opening day to sept.1 fading wash or kc not to sweep an away series was undefeated... the key is trying to filter out teams that are a risk of getting swept more than once... if you do that, you will show a profit, no matter which way you go... KC was 20 - 0 wash 20 - 0 and pitt 21 - 0 in the 3 game chase... kind of just like the best teams at home in the 3 game chase...
seems like the key to this strategy is just selecting your teams now for best and worst, streamline your plays down to the ideal amount of wagers on the season... and just hope you didnt include a team that bucks the pattern
of course I think the safest thing is betting with the system only when the top 5 are at home playing one of the bottom 5... but, that would make for only about 35 plays in 6 months of baseballComment -
what teams (how many) do you plan on selecting to begin the year?Comment -
working on that... I am stuck on the best teams... NYY and Boston are in there, but 3, 4 and 5 are tricky to chose because those other best teams kind of changed their roster over a bit this year, so it makes it unpredictible... lets start coming up with a list... If I propose NYY and Boston as in the list... who else should we include... as far as the 5 worst, I am pretty sure I am going with fading, Wash, KC, Pitt, SD and Houston...
I just need to decide on the 3rd 4th and or 5th best teamsComment -
What do you think of CWS, PHI, and SF? I think my bottom teams are going to be WAS, PITT, SD, CLE, and TORComment -
CWS seems good.... Philly scares me because of their bullpen and their wiffle ball like field sometimes... they got swept a handful of times last year at home on their way to the WS... SF looks good though too... I like their rotation, did they improve their piss poor lineup in the off season?Comment -
Mark DeRosa, Aubrey Huff, and Bengie Molina...so not a ton of improvement...but with their pitching, i dont see them having many lengthy losing streaksComment -
here is what I see... you got your boston and NYY and then after that, at this point you really cant go wrong with two or three of the rest of the best...I guess it is more personal feel on those ones...
I am kind of leaning toward, Bos, NYY, TB, CWS, and then one of these: LAD, SFG, LAA, SeaComment -
So stingy...are you going to go with the 2 game chase for sure then??? No filters or anything right? Just take the top 5 teams at home and against the 5 worst teams away for 2 games??Comment -
I am thinking that yes... I mean the way it works out in action... you are doing the first 2 anyway, if you lose the first two, then it is kind of up to you if you want to pull the trigger on the c bet based on pitching matchups or anything else...
But yes, I am leaning toward top 5 at home, worst 5 on the road, starting with a 2 game chase... I got my worst 5, the issue I got is finalizing the best 5... as far as filters, that is kind of discretionary in the moment, I mean you can always just plan on all your plays for the year, and then always have the option to pass on a play based on whatever factor in the moment...
it is just a matter of picking the teams now, and setting up the schedule for the year... I have noticed by looking at the schedule that if you do 5 best and 5 worst, you may have 5 to 10 series going on each week all at the same time, kind of nervous that might be too much at once, what do you think?Comment -
Yeah that is true...well what if we narrowed it down to only the 3 best teams and 3 worst teams???Comment -
I'm thinking we should do a 2 game chase with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays at home and going against the Nats, Royals, and Pirates away...what do you think?Comment -
that is the core of what I had too... exactly those 6... that would make for about 120 plays on the year... which actually may be a bit light in action, but should do the best we could to avoid any losses... if you were to add a fourth who would they be...
I think Houston and SD are pretty safe on the worst side.... There are question marks about CWS and LAA as well as LAD... I just got an idea... what if we start with the 6 on opening day and at the end of the month if it is winning, decide if we want to broaden it and include one or two teams on each side of it, based on who the best and worst are after the first month... and hopefully by that point we will be working off profitComment -
Top 5:
for sure NYY, BOS and TB
contention: STL, PHIL, SF, COL, LAA, SEA
Bottom 5:
for sure KC, WASH, SD, PIT
contention: TOR, HOU, CLEV
Some thoughts:
-I like the idea of the 2 game chase. Like you mentioned, if you play the potential "C" bet in a case by case situation, you could be fine. For example...if you last A and B bets on a teams 4th and 5th starters, and you had their ace pitching the next day, well then, i would feel fine placing a C bet on my home team.
-stingy...are your records all basing it on the Moneyline? I know everything from ML to -1 RL to -1.5 RL have been mentioned in this thread.
-another possibility would be to play the 2 game chase but play it for more money. looking at NYY and BOS and their pitching staffs, i really dont see how either will lose a home series this year. if so, it will be a fluke...so, a thought would be to pick the top 3 and bottom 3 and just double up your units on the 2 game chase.Comment -
the records I put up are all on the ML for 2009 from opening day to sept 1... Reverend, that is exactly what I was thinking too... I just did the schedule for april... I can post it here too, for plays on NYY, Bos and TB... and against Wash, Pitt, and KC... it works out pretty nicely, about 23 plays for the month of april, and evenly spaced out... at the end of the month,, KC is at TB, so that could definitely qualify as a double play... I think we got this going good... top 3, bottom 3 2 game chase for the month of april, and then reevaluate and adjust at the end of the month...
to those saying can I book this, even though that quip is weeks old... and good concept... the point of these threads is to work things out to determine if there is a good strategy or not, not make stupid wise ass remarks that contribute nothing... if you disagree with all of this, we would love to hear why despite the solid track record for this it is still a bad idea... please share... if you read the whole thread I think you would see we have been working hard at fine tuning this to be without excessive risk, and a strong potential for wins... thanks for the thoughtful contributionsComment -
kind of interesting how the start of the season shapes up based on our ideas.... this strategy will be put to the test for sure, as our first two plays would be on Boston v. NYY and then TB v. NYY
tell me that isnt a trial by fire right out of the gate
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Ha Ha...that is funny stingy...OK...so we are going on the 2 game chase for sure...and are we doing the -1 RL or the ML?????Comment -
yeah, I think I am going with 2 game chase to start, Boston, NYY and TB... and fading Washington, KC, Pitt... all on the money line, I looked into the -1 and RL and the pushes and one run losses would kill you in the longterm I think...
So I am going with those 6 teams for opening day... 2 game chase, and them after April 30, reevaluate, adjust unit size and potentially include more teams for the rest of the season...
One idea, do you guys want to start a thread on opening day that is just for the daily plays, it is going to take a little work to keep track of?
Also, if Boston wins on opening night... there was a series I was planning on making a play on the following afternoon that isnt in the 'three best' Cleveland at Chisox... Hard to see Chicago taking a home sweep against the rebuilding indians on the opening series at home... just a little side play I dont think I could pass up... especially if Boston pulls off the win on opening night...
I have the scehedule charted out for Boston, NYY, TB, Wash, Pitt and KC for the month of april... if we start a new thread, I will type it up on there... It seems the OP disappeared so it is up to you guysComment -
new thread sounds goodComment -
Would it be better to switch teams mid way in the season if they are playing better at home?Comment -
Yeah a new thread is fine, but why not just keep this one...Comment -
Looks good guysComment -
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this may be getting to subjective, but looking back over these numbers, and also seeing this when playing the "bad" teams to lose on the road, the issue of the "ace" comes up often.
if you notice the red sox had 2 losses last year in the 2 game chase records above. but what is interesting is the first series loss was to the mets, because santana was pitching against wakefield. the second series loss was to seattle, because hernandez was pitching against matzuzaka. i know if you look at the royals numbers, you fare better when avoiding betting against greinke.
my only thought is this: if your team is facing another team's ace, why not skip that game and wait for the next. since we are only talking a 2 game chase, these series have 3 games, so unless it is "ace vs ace", i think it would be worth thinking about passing on these type games.
thoughts?Comment -
great research rev... I didnt delve that deep but suspected something along those lines to explain it... I tend to agree with you... if we are really trying to avoid any maximized risk or chasing as little as possible, there should be some subjective filter on a case by case basis, along the lines of matchups and obviously injuries...
I am not so sure about skipping the one game in the middle of the series, what if they somehow pull it out and win against the ace? then what do you do for game three? They would have already avoided a sweep, so betting the third game at that point is kind of ourside the concept of what we are betting against... Seems to lead toward skipping the whole series for one team if the pitching matchups seem mismatched... honestly on a side note, I am not all that terrified about betting against Grienke... he is a cy young caliber pitcher no doubt, but he is pretty much capped at winning 15 games on that squad, and I once unloaded on him last year in the ballpark of late May against some crappy team... he pitched a complete game and gave up one run, just as I thought he would, and I lost the bet they lost 1 - 0 with him giving them the complete game, giving up only like 5 hits....
I looked back a bunch more years and the correlation I found is 92 plus win teams in any year generally dont get swept at home, and sub 72 win teams on the season generally dont sweep any away series... so it really boils down to now... selecting and including those 90 plus win teams and 70 win teams to fade... as you approach the 80 win mark on either side of the equation, you start to see a higher frequency in sweeps on the year...
I was just thinking a new thread would be good, because once the season starts it will be a good idea to have a thead for the schedule of plays as well as tracking of results, rather than have it all blended together with a running discussion thread that is bound to go all season long and reach 40 page mark in length... could make it easier to track and follow just the plays strictly... maybe use one thread for running discussion about the system, and one thread just for the daily plays and results??
btw... I stumbled across the other system thread on here 'system integrity' very similar to this and also seems pretty interesting, it seemed to have results just like the results on no home sweeps... was considering doing it in conjunction with this system and have that be 100% of my wagering on baseball for the summer...
great job on this guys I think we have made a lot of progress and should be all squared away for SundayComment -
I think a new thread with all the plays sounds veery good. And thanks for all the research!Comment -
Yeah we can do a new thread that's not a problem...so Stingy are you going to start the new one then? And so this is what we are going to do I think right....?
*Bet ON the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays at home
*Bet AGAINST the Nats, Royals, and Pirates away
*If a team's ACE is pitching during that 3 game series, then DO NOT Play that series (For both home and away systems)
Is that where we are at right now???Comment -
stingy,
i have done lots of research on the system integrity thread. i am finishing up 2007, so i will have the results of playing the largest ML favorite for the past 3 years, all in a spreadsheet.
i can go ahead and tell you the best way to play that system is playing a 4 game chase on the -1 RunLine. it looks like a very solid system as well. my plans are to play that as well as this one.Comment -
Listen...first of all 90% of you do not have the discipline to follow a system. Next this is nothing knew, stop in at covers and see fifty versions of it.
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Also eliminating series with the ace pitching is a mistake.Comment -
that is new ... not knew
what else don't you know ?Comment -
^ why do you ahve to be a buzzkill.
^ why do you ahve to be a buzzkill.
the numbers dont lie. someone link me the new thread. Im on on this systemComment
