At least ONE home series win 364-13 record

reverend · 03-07-10, 01:48 AM

thanks for doing that research. i think this system has some weight to it, and if you can play the -1 RL and have better payouts on your wins, even though you are having more pushes, I would expect you come out ahead in the end of the year compared to just playing the ML. Because as we know, most of the good teams (NYY, BOS, PHL, LAD) can put up runs at home...very interested to see how these numbers come out after you crunch them!

also, like someone mentioned above, you are wanted to back great home teams, but also teams with solid starting pitchers. so if a team was solid last year at home, and there has been some changes in the rotation, or a SP may be hurt, it may be wise to hold the team on the sideline. but a team like the SOX this year should be beautiful in this type of setup with them having 3 aces potenitally. also, another sleeper team to watch is the Diamondbacks. If Webb comes back healthy, with Webb, Haren, and Jackson, you have 3 aces on that staff as well.

jolmscheid · 03-07-10, 01:39 PM

Thanks reverend...I am planning right now on Playing the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Rockies, Giants, Angels, and Dodgers at HOME and plahying against the Pirates, Nationals, Royals ON THE ROAD....Would like some input on if I am missing any teams or if I should not use one of the teams listed??? I can't wait to see what the results are using the -1 run line........

fastpitch_45 · 03-07-10, 10:21 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Thanks reverend...I am planning right now on Playing the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Rockies, Giants, Angels, and Dodgers at HOME and plahying against the Pirates, Nationals, Royals ON THE ROAD....Would like some input on if I am missing any teams or if I should not use one of the teams listed??? I can't wait to see what the results are using the -1 run line........

Also looking forward to seeing how the -1 run line compares. Thanks

dvb02 · 03-07-10, 10:39 PM

Spank, have you made a final decision on what teams you will play at home and which ones you will fade on the road? I am also looking forward to the results of the -1 run line stats.

reverend · 03-07-10, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Thanks reverend...I am planning right now on Playing the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Rockies, Giants, Angels, and Dodgers at HOME and plahying against the Pirates, Nationals, Royals ON THE ROAD....Would like some input on if I am missing any teams or if I should not use one of the teams listed??? I can't wait to see what the results are using the -1 run line........

I would consider adding Philly and St. Louis to the list.

I would wait and see how the Dodgers pitching staff shakes out.

Vesuvius · 03-08-10, 01:19 AM

Interesting but teams change.

reverend · 03-08-10, 11:41 AM

I am crunching the numbers from last season for some of the top teams based on the straight ML bet, the -1 RL and the -1.5 RL.

I will put in one post below.

reverend · 03-08-10, 11:51 AM

edit.

jolmscheid · 03-08-10, 11:54 AM

so reverend...is betting the -1 runline better than betting straight up each game? Will it be better profits and lower juice I am assuming??? Thanks for your help.

reverend · 03-08-10, 12:00 PM

edit.

reverend · 03-08-10, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

so reverend...is betting the -1 runline better than betting straight up each game? Will it be better profits and lower juice I am assuming??? Thanks for your help.

Let me finishing crunching these numbers, and then we will break out some analysis.

reverend · 03-08-10, 01:03 PM

I went through '09 and pulled the records for some of the top teams with the best home records on the ML, -1 RL and -1.5 RL categories.

Here they are:

Yankees: 57 Home Wins
ML: 22-0
-1: 21-1
-1.5: 21-1

Boston: 56 Home Wins
ML: 22-1
-1: 22-1
-1.: 22-1

Tampa: 52 Home Wins
ML: 22-1
-1: 21-1-1
-1.5: 21-2

Giants: 52 Home Wins
ML: 24-1
-1: 22-1-2
-1.5: 22-3

Detroit: 51 Home Wins
ML: 22-1
-1: 20-1-2
-1.5: 20-3

Colorado: 51 Home Wins
ML: 24-1
-1: 19-1-5
-1.5: 19-6

Dodgers: 50 Home Wins
ML: 23-0
-1: 18-5
-1.5: 18-5

Angels: 49 Home Wins
ML: 25-0
-1: 22-3
-1.5: 22-3

Twins: 49 Home Wins
ML: 24-2
-1: 21-2-3
-1.5: 21-5

Texas: 48 Home Wins
ML: 24-1
-1: 21-1-3
-1.5: 21-4

Seattle: 48 Home Wins
ML: 24-1
-1: 18-1-6
-1.5: 18-7

reverend · 03-08-10, 01:08 PM

The biggest question mark with this system is knowing which teams will have the best home records. I do feel that you can look at last year's numbers and see if the team added to their roster, see if teams in their division lost some key players, and also look at the preseason predicted win totals from the books to see who they think will be the best teams.

Now the issue with the -1 RL is deciding what to do in a series when you have a push. For instance, say the Sox are playing the Yanks at home and they win the first game by 1 run. What do you do with the remaining 2 games in the series? With the '09 state above, if there was a game that pushed, I put it in the "Tie" column, but in actuality, you would lose money, so a "tie" is a bit deceiving. For instance, if the Braves are playing the Mets in a 4 game series at home, and they lose the first 3 games, and win the 4th game by 1 run, in the above records that was treated as a tie, but in the betting world you would push that 4th bet, but you would have lost the first 3 bets. That makes it difficult to really grade out how the -1 RL did.

reverend · 03-08-10, 01:22 PM

So the big question is where do you draw the line and who do you decide to play?

reverend · 03-08-10, 01:29 PM

5Dimes projected win totals for top 5 teams:

Yankees 94.5
Boston 94.5
Philly 92
Tampa 89.5
Cardinals 88.5

dvb02 · 03-08-10, 01:30 PM

Play the top 5 and reverse the bottom 5(away)????

reverend · 03-08-10, 01:30 PM

Lets get a list going of teams that upgraded:

Yankees - Granderson
Boston - Lackey
Philly - Doc
Cardinals - Holiday for a full season
Seattle - Lee

reverend · 03-08-10, 01:31 PM

I think you would be solid playing the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Cardinals for sure!

jolmscheid · 03-08-10, 02:01 PM

Yeah that sounds like a good plan to me...and what about playing against the 4 WORST road teams?? And so the ML is prolly the way to go huh?? What do you think Reverend? Thanks for your help.

CappinTerp · 03-08-10, 03:38 PM

I am new to this site (11/26/090, but a seasoned capper , I have to think about this ,not sure I UNDERSTAND.?

Stealinhome · 03-08-10, 04:34 PM

Giants at HM huff and dero should help the score an extra half run per game

Jericholic · 03-08-10, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by chisox19

Sorry this is a little late but i'd be careful of Minnesota if Liriano doesn't step up their starting rotation stinks. Not to mention there losing wins by moving out of the metrodome.

It's already been said but everyone should be careful with the Twins. They moved to a new park but the team is still built to a large extent for the Metrodome, meaning they have been built on speed and we don't yet know how that will translate to Target Field. We also don't know how the new park will play and if the current team is built to succeed in the new environment. However, while their pitching staff isn't phenomenal, I wouldn't say they stink, they very rarely were shelled last year and are solid everywhere, but spectacular nowhere, 1-5. Finally all reports out of Florida, which can be taken with a grain of salt sometimes, are that Liriano is looking like he did in 2006 with a mid 90s fastball with movement and a high 80's low 90's slider with bite.

chisox19 · 03-08-10, 05:07 PM

I did hear that about Liriano right after i posted that. Still I don't wanna take my chances with a starting rotation that doesn't have one game that had under a 4 era.

reverend · 03-08-10, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Yeah that sounds like a good plan to me...and what about playing against the 4 WORST road teams?? And so the ML is prolly the way to go huh?? What do you think Reverend? Thanks for your help.

I am going to go back and run the real dollar figures for the ML. Does anyone know if you can find last year's RL figures?

jolmscheid · 03-08-10, 06:12 PM

Thanks Reverend...that would be awesome if you could crunch the numbers on the ML compared to the -1 compared to the -1.5....I will give you some points for sure. .Thanks

spankmythighs · 03-08-10, 07:42 PM

Sorry guys been away from this for a few days. Anyways, Rev are those records based on 3 and 4 game home series? I looked at the Red Sox for instance and for the past 2 years at home -1.5 their record is 73-80 on all home games. Not great. When chasing all home games they had one 6 game losing streak based on -1.5. If you were to play all home games and fade after 5 losses your record would have been 73-1. But thats only if you fade the last series of each year too.

spankmythighs · 03-08-10, 07:44 PM

For top 5 teams and bottom 5 teams I would maybe go off the bookies favs and dogs with input from you guys. What do u think?

fastpitch_45 · 03-08-10, 09:24 PM

Originally posted by reverend

I am going to go back and run the real dollar figures for the ML. Does anyone know if you can find last year's RL figures?

Thanks for all the research

reverend · 03-08-10, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Sorry guys been away from this for a few days. Anyways, Rev are those records based on 3 and 4 game home series? I looked at the Red Sox for instance and for the past 2 years at home -1.5 their record is 73-80 on all home games. Not great. When chasing all home games they had one 6 game losing streak based on -1.5. If you were to play all home games and fade after 5 losses your record would have been 73-1. But thats only if you fade the last series of each year too.

hey spank, i want to thank you for turning us on to this. i am having fun going back and minning some data.

i had the red sox going 22-1 last season on the -1.5 RL. Now that is considering all 3 and 4 games homestands. Their only loss was to Toronto on 9/28-9/30, where the ML's were -207, -234 and +146.

CappinTerp · 03-08-10, 09:52 PM

Are you betting series prices, or jout the 1st game of sr., if win stop.?/ No disrespect, but this is very different from true baseball betting.I HAVE BEEN betting baseball for over 30 years, winning baseball is all about betting trends and dogs and IMO NEVER LAYING MORE THAN -150.!!! I wish you and your followers luck.

reverend · 03-08-10, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

Are you betting series prices, or jout the 1st game of sr., if win stop.?/ No disrespect, but this is very different from true baseball betting.I HAVE BEEN betting baseball for over 30 years, winning baseball is all about betting trends and dogs and IMO NEVER LAYING MORE THAN -150.!!! I wish you and your followers luck.

This system is playing the home series. So if you lose game 1, you are betting to make up your loses of game 1 plus 1 unit. If you win game 1, you are done for that series.

This system is strictly betting trends. no discretion at all except what teams to play on, which should be decided before the season.

spankmythighs · 03-08-10, 10:29 PM

Do you know what the actual lines were with -1.5 runs? The 3 lines you have are just straight ML right?

spankmythighs · 03-08-10, 10:34 PM

Playing home series with -1.5 doesn't really work very well. The records are not as nice as ML. On the other hand though, playing +1.5 on the away team does. But that is another thread all together. Or if you take the best home teams and go +1 or +1.5 then the records are excellent.

spankmythighs · 03-08-10, 10:37 PM

I will be playing that other system mentioned somewhere too where you bet on the biggest away dog with +1.5 and the biggest home dog +1.5. I did this with hockey and it works quite well for early to mid season in hockey. It would probably work better all season with baseball.

jolmscheid · 03-08-10, 10:44 PM

Hey spank...how does that +1.5 system work??? I am looking to wager on baseball this season with just a rock solid system...also, can you tell me what top 5 home teams you are going to use and what bottom 5 road teams you are going to use??? And also, are you going to be doing the -1 RL or the ML....I am asking all this because you have had great success doing this you said the last couple of seasons and so I want to do exactly what you do...can you let me know exactly what ways you will be betting this year for baseball? i will definitely give you some points...and I owe Reverend some points too.....thanks