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this is a ton like morrison and still requires you to pick the right teams. Teams do get swept less likely at home but the lines are always pricey. Nothing new here 50 versions of this over at covers...my version with 50% capping added in my signature from last year also played with over .500 road teams that were hot ...can win but like anything else it is all about being a disciplined player. Most of you should just forget it.Comment -
I've recently noticed this thread, so if I'm interjecting reduntant material, sorry.
RUN LINE BETTING ODDS
In considering run line wagering, a couple of numbers you should know. About 70% of all games played since 2000 are decided by a single run. Home favorites win by one run just over 18% of the time and road favorites win by one run a little under 12 percent.
The upside is the largest grouping of numbers in baseball fall toward the home/road favorites winning by 2 or more runs at 41+ percent.
Create your own -1RL:
I've used a RL calculator that another poster "across the street" provided. It's a way to take favorite and make a -1 RL and reduce your exposure. If anyone can find a use for this method, the link is below..... Simply enter the line and the amount you want to bet and it will figure how much you should place on the ML and how much you should place on the RL.....profit is shown on the right.
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Screamin...I downloaded the spreadsheet but I don't know how to use it really. Can you explain it better? Thanks!Comment -
JUST FILL IN THE YELLOW CELLS, WAGER WHATS IN THE GREEN ONES, AND YOUR TOTAL WIN IS IN THE BLUE CELL!
When you do this you have created a -1 RL.
*Whatever ML your shop has...type below the first yellow box
*whatever RL your shop has....type below the second yellow box
*Whatever amt. your want to bet....type below the yellow "total bet" box
The rest is automatic. The Green boxes will tell you how much to wager on the ML and RL. The box at the right will compute your total winnings.Comment -
Spank, have you ever tried using a labourchere money management system with this kind of chase? Seems like a good fit and a way to minimize the big losses. I have a link to a good explanation of the labby system if anyone wants it. Also, another guy across the street used a system like this but only picked teams that had won 2 of their last 3 games and were a favorite of at least -180 in the first game. His record was 72-1 and he has had a couple of prior seasons with no losses. The loss was on the Phillies which probably could have been avoided since they really weren't a great home team.Comment -
Sorry haven't been on here for a while. I have been very busy getting ready to sell my business and purchase a couple more. I was haven some trouble posting on here aswell. Let me go back and go through the posts and see what we got.sbrComment -
Sounds interesting. I am gonna do my system this year with home series wins and also with BAD and BHD. But I am game for several different systems to get some good stats on different systems and create some new data. I am looking forward to playing MLB all summer. I play roulette professionally aswell and golf so I am hopin for some gd extra cash flow. Right now I am just in the middle of buying 2 businesses and selling mine so if you don't see me here all the time thats why. The week prior to the season starting I will be on here lots to get things organized. Your system sounds gd, maybe pm me. LatersbrComment -
Hey spank...does my plan sound good with what I am going to do this year? Thanks for your helpComment -
I'm going with Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals, Yankees at Home and AGAINST Nats. Pirates, orioles, Royals away...and I will be doing the BAD and BHD too...Comment -
But I have also heard that doing the biggest fav. of the day in a chase works well too.....so doesn't that clash with the BAD and BHD system Spank? ThanksComment -
I may be retarded but wasn't able to PM you for some reason. I just went back and double checked and the system I tallked about was actually any home team favored by at least -140 in game 1. It was 77-1. I may have been wrong about the having to have won at least 2 of the last 3. Here is a link to the labourchere if anyone is interested. Todd, at platinum is actually credited for creating almost all of the systems John Morrison sells.Comment -
Yes I will do the away series aswell with the worst teams. I like what you got set up J. I think those teams are the ones to go with. As far as the BHD, BAD, BHF, and BAF go, maybe just try mixing it up a little but run them in 3 or 4 game series and with the favs maybe use runline -1.5.sbrComment -
Sounds good spank...I'm liking what I see...thanks again.Comment -
Dyeguy...I don't see the link to the Labouchere system and Todd's systems from Platinum?Comment -
we are getting close. cant wait for the season!Comment -
Lets do it reverend. Reverend, are you going to do Spank's system on the ML or the -1 RL like we talked about earlier???? Thanks for your help.Comment -
I don't post on here too often and I guess you need to have 25 posts to be able to PM. Hopefully I am allowed to say that the website with the labby explanation is Platinum Sports Investing. Otherwise, I need 9 more posts to be important enough to PM.Comment -
Spank, have you ever decided which teams you are going with (and against)?Comment -
Baseball season is approaching fast!!Comment -
if you happen to lose a home series sweep, do you keep doubling up? It's not likely that Boston or the Yanks will lose more than 3 or 4 in a row at home, but if they hit like 7 games... or do you back off your bets after that series is complete?Comment -
Hey Spank...can you tell us all EXACTLY what teams you are on and what teams you are going against? And when to stop the chase, etc? I'm sure we are all wanting to make sure that we do this thing right like you have done the past few seasons...Thanks
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[quote=superjeff24;3697503]if you happen to lose a home series sweep, do you keep doubling up?
No, cause after that you is broke! LOL
Another twist to a system like this is to wait for the team to lose game 1 of a homestand and then bet on the last 2 games. Very high winning percentage and less risk although you obviously lose the game 1 winners.Comment -
Yeah dyeguy that could be a good idea...what do you think Spank? Reverend?Comment -
good system you have me on boardComment -
theres alot of interesting angles to be played here , what's the general consensus going with ?Comment -
Didn't read past the first page, However, if you go four deep as shown above then you will be hard pressed to find a place that has those limits. A few places do. Now take it to 4 units and no, you will not really find a place to take that much action. Of course the solution is simple, just open accounts at several books.
Good luck to you guys, I wish you the best, but I will be passing on this, however it is interesting to note and thanks to the OP for posting it.Comment -
Can you post real game scenarios in past 2 years??Comment -
I am thinking that maybe doing this could be better by waiting to see if the team loses its first game of the series and then just doing a 2 game chase to finish out the series??? That way we aren't putting so much juice up for grabs? But then we would obviously miss out on all those series where the team would win their first one...so what do you guys think? Spank, what's your thoughts. ThanksComment
