I dunno really, I haven't given that game much thought cuz of Cashner being such a wild card. Looks like he got lit up last year against them and 7 of his last 8 starts have went Over. I used to keep a query on the Orioles and Unders at Home last year, but the Over started hitting a lot in the 2nd half. That's about all I can add.
-
Comment -
I wanted to take the Rockies, it looks like their going to fit one of my fav contrarian systems, but Marquez has sucked vs D-Backs and didn't look good in Spring and Greinke looked really good.
I liked the Angels too, but didn't get around to looking up some stuff on Mengden, data base had Gossitt starting and I was too lazy to type out Mengden's name at the time, so I guess I wasn't too interested I guess. I do like the Angels and Brewers this year though.
I don't see the Cubs or Astros losing and thought about a parlay but held off.
The White Sox do seem like possibly a good play and maybe the Brewers, depends on how this Yankee Under goes.Comment -
Might look into the Boston Under also.Comment -
Sabathia's stuff looks pretty weak and I don't think Gardner was supposed to play, but I think it was McKinney who ran into the wall and got hurt. Judge the heaviest CF in MLB history, lol.Comment -
Saturday 3/31/18 MLB Results
3-0 for +3.11
WIN - ¤ White Sox -105
WIN - ¤ Nationals/Reds Over 8 +100
WIN - ¤ Yankees/Blue Jays Under 9 +111
__________________________
Season = 5-2 for +3.21
___________________________
ML = 1-2 for -1.00
(Dogs = 0-2 for -2.00)
(Favs = 1-0 for +1.00)
RL = 1-0 for +1.00
O/U = 3-0 for +3.21
(Overs = 1-0 for +1.00)
(Unders = 2-0 for +2.21)
__________________________
Recent Results
3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
______________________________Comment -
Sunday's Totals Projections
TOTALS - (Overall = 21-14) (Overs = 7-4) Unders = 14-10)
HOU O9.5 (10.6) +1.1
TOR U8.5 (7.5) -1.0
CHC U8.0 (7.2) -0.8
KC O8.5 (9.2) +0.7
WAS O9.0 (9.6) +0.6
LAA U9.5 (8.9) -0.6
LAD U7.5 (7.2) -0.3
MIN U9.0 (8.7) -0.3
SEA U8.0 (7.7) -0.3
NYM O7.5 (7.6) +0.1
TB U8.0 (7.9) -0.1
DET P8.5 (8.5) 0.0 Williams/Fulmer
PIT N/A (8.6) N/A Kuhl/LirianoComment -
SDQL 4/1
ALL = Yesterday 5-0 (Total 6-0 for +6.50)
ML = Yesterday 2-0 (Total 2-0 for +2.00)
RL = Yesterday 2-0 (Total 2-0 for +2.50)
OU = Yesterday 1-0 (Total 2-0 for +2.00)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: Dodgers ML +29.5% ROI (34-13) RL +46.9% (28-19)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL
PLAY: Dodgers ML +8.4% ROI (175-118) RL +7.8% ROI (145-148)
H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month != 7 and month != 8) and 2008 <= season and SG > 1 and total > 6.5
PLAY: Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Reds ML +13.9% ROI (888-879)
179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79
PLAY: Nationals are 19-2 SU since May 4, 2016 as a road favorite after they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter last game.
team=Nationals and AF and po:BPRA > po:SRA and date>=20160504
FADE: (Red Sox) ROI -7.8% (418-353) Teams who won their last two games by 1 run and are Favorites
p:margin = 1 and pp:margin = 1 and F
-----------------------------------
OU
UNDER: Giants/Dodgers +28.0% ROI (31-15-1)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL
__________________________
SDQL PLAYS
ML
Dodgers -170
Marlins +190
Rangers +145
Rays +100
RL
Dodgers +115
OU
Giants/Dodgers Under 7.5 -105
___________________________________Comment -
Sunday 4/1/18 MLB Plays
¤ Twins +105
____________________
The Twins lineup is full of Lefties and Gausman can have some trouble with walks and HR's vs them. Berrios got 19 innings of work in spring, while Gausman got 9, both had a decent WHIP, but Berrios has the better BAA. Berrios struggled to get wins on the Road last season and I'm sure he will be plenty motivated to get off to a good start. With Gausman having one win in 5 starts vs the Twins, I like Berrios and the Twins lefty hitters to win this one. GL!Comment -
Great work FUqer!! What you do is not easy!!Comment -
Home Favorites on Sundays in April in night games are 21-4 since 2010. I'm trying to decided if I want to risk the unit I'm up for the day on the Dodgers RL or the Under, or just watch a movie with the woman.
21-4 (2.20, 84.0%) avg line: -147.0 / 135.6 on / against: +$1,582 / -$1,622 ROI: +43.4% / -64.8% 16-9 (0.70, 64.0%) avg line: 148.4 / -162.1 on / against: +$1,510 / -$1,726 ROI: +60.3% / -42.3% Comment -
Sunday 4/1/18 MLB Results
4-2 for +2.07
WIN - ¤ Twins +105
LOSS - ¤ Rays -103
WIN - ¤ Blue Jays -110
WIN - ¤ Dodgers -1.5 +105
WIN - ¤ Red Sox/Rays Under 8 +100
LOSS - ¤ Yankees/Blue Jays Under 8 +105
____________________
Season = 9-4 for +5.28
_____________________
ML = 3-3 for +0.02
(Dogs = 1-2 for -0.95)
(Favs = 2-1 for +0.97)
RL = 2-0 for +2.05
O/U = 4-1 for +3.21
(Overs = 1-0 for +1.00)
(Unders = 3-1 for +2.21)
_____________________
Recent Results
4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
______________________
I was conflicted whether to play the Dodgers RL or the Under last night and when I went to look at the alternate prices on Under 7 and Over 8, the difference between them convinced me it was going to go Over, so much that I even picked the Over in contests.Comment -
A few things off the top of my head before I run today's numbers.
The Cardinals pitcher doesn't look like anything special and Davies struggled against the Cardinals last year, I want to check out the Over in that game.
The Pirates have to go back Home and play a 1 pm game after the double header yesterday, I want to look up some SDQL for that spot. The Twins look really good with all those lefties and PNC isn't a bad park for them.
I like the heat that Newcomb throws for the Braves and Roark can be a wild card. Braves could definiteley give the Nats their first loss.
Colon for the Rangers, is always going to be on my radar to fade.Comment -
Monday's Totals Projections
(Overall = 26-18) (Overs = 9-5) Unders = 17-13)
CHC/CIN O8.5 (9.6) +1.1
CHW/TOR U9.5 (8.4) -1.1
CLE/LAA U8.5 (7.7) -0.8
BAL/HOU U9.5 (8.8) -0.7
STL/MIL O9.0 (9.6) +0.6
PHI/NYM O8.0 (8.6) +0.6
KC/DET O8.5 (8.7) +0.2
MIN/PIT O8.0 (8.2) +0.2
LAD/ARI O9.0 (9.1) +0.1
WAS/ATL U9.0 (8.9) -0.1
COL/SD O8.5 (8.6) +0.1
TEX/OAK P9.0 (9.025) --
TB/NYY N/A (9.03) N/A
---------------------Comment -
I was trying to find some supporting data for the Over in home day games for the Brewers with the roof closed and besides a pretty insignificant 5-3 last year, there's nothing to support them scoring more runs history wise. My gut and projections like the Over, but I wanted something else since it seems like a popular pick and I haven't found it yet.
Brewers in Home Day games indoors.
Brewers in Home Day games indoors vs a division opponent. 8/11 went Under.67-70-4 (0.19, 48.9%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: -$880 / -$343 ROI: -5.7% / -2.2%
-------------28-38-1 (-0.19, 42.4%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$1,300 / +$732 ROI: -17.8% / +9.8%
Unless I'm typing in the wrong query, the data base is showing no previous instances of a team playing the 2nd game of a double header in a road night game and having to go back home the next day for a afternoon game. But teams who have had to play a a road night game and come back home the next day to play a day game have done good. I'm not so sure about the Twins anymore.
--------------------------------21-10 (0.55, 67.7%) avg line: -148.1 / 136.2 on / against: +$724 / -$855 ROI: +15.6% / -27.0%
Rangers might actually end up being a system play, so I don't think I'll be fading Colon.
--------------------------------
I lean towards the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres right now.Comment -
SDQL 4/2
ALL = Yesterday 3-3 (Season: 9-3 for +7.50)
ML = Yesterday 2-2 (Season: 4-2 for +2.90)
RL = Yesterday 1-0 (Season: 3-0 for +3.65)
OU = Yesterday 0-1 (Season: 2-1 for +0.95)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: D-Backs = +13.6% ROI (888-883)
179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79
FADE: Red Sox = -7.7% ROI (419-353)
p:margin = 1 and pp:margin = 1 and F
FADE: Phillies are 0-12 SU since Jul 18, 2014 in the first game of a series with rest off a game as a dog in which they lost by 5+ runs.
team=Phillies and FGS and p
and p:margin<=-5 and rest>=1 and date>=20140718
FADE: The Rays are 0-23 SU since Apr 20, 2004 on the road after a game as a home dog in which they had more strikeouts than hits.
team=Rays and A and p:HD and p:SO > p:hits and date>=20040420
PLAY: The Indians have won the last 11 vs the Angels.
team=Angels and o:team=Indians and date>=20160612
-----------------------------------
OU
__________________________
SDQL PLAYS
ML
D-Backs +105
Marlins +125
Mets -110
Indians -115
RL
None
OU
None
_________________________Comment -
Indians have beaten the Angel their last 11 meetings and last 15 out of 16, and the Indians have won Clevinger's last 7 starts. I lean towards the Under here also. My only concern is Clevinger can give up some long balls. I'm going to add the Indians 11-0 streak to the SDQL plays.Comment -
Diamondbacks 20-5 L25 at Home vs a Lefty. Over 17-6-2.
20-5 (2.56, 80.0%) avg line: -133.1 / 120.5 on / against: +$1,435 / -$1,556 ROI: +40.6% / -56.3% 17-8 (2.14, 68.0%) avg line: -100.4 / -116.1 on / against: +$1,179 / -$1,304 ROI: +39.3% / -39.8% 17-6-2 (3.04, 73.9%) avg total: 9.4 over / under: +$1,040 / -$1,240 ROI: +37.5% / -45.5% Comment -
What you provide in this thread is greatly appreciated! Thank you and best of luck this season!
Comment -
Monday 4/2/18 MLB Plays
¤ D-Backs +104
¤ Indians -114
¤ D-Backs TT Over 4 -105
¤ Indians/Angels Under 8 +100
____________________Comment -
Brewers lost their last 3 Home openers giving up 29 runs and are 2-6 L8. Cardinals were one of my leans this morning, but they kinda got popular on here and even though there are some good players on them, I'm still not sure. One of the things I was worried about was it being the Homer opener for the Brewers, but that don't look like much of a concern, it's just there's some question marks about Mikolas. All of my action is for late tonight, so it will be hard to hold off on it.
Anyone wanna tell me their reasons they are on the Cardinals?Comment -
Houston's ring ceremony is tonight and they have won their last 5 Home openers giving up a combined 6 runs, no more than 2 in one game.
Mariners 3-0
Royals 8-2
Indians 2-0
Yankees 6-2
Rangers 8-2Comment -
Couldn't resist.Comment -
Going out of town tomorrow, so not sure if Ill be around, so getting these out now.
Tuesday's Totals Projections
BAL/HOU U9.0 (7.6) -1.4 WRIGHT/VERLANDER
KC/DET O9.0 (9.7) +0.7 JUNIS/BOYD
TB/NYY O8.0 (8.5) +0.5 ARCHER/MONTGOMERY
BOS/MIA U7.5 (6.8) -0.7 SALE/URENA
CLE/LAA U8.5 (7.8) -0.7 TOMLIN/RICHARDS
PHI/NYM O8.0 (8.6) +0.6 LIVELY/HARVEY
SEA/SF U8.5 (7.9) -0.6 GONZALES/BLACH
STL/MIL O9.0 (9.5) +0.5 FLAHERTY/ANDERSON
WAS/ATL O9.0 (9.5) +0.5 COLE/TEHERAN
CHW/TOR O9.0 (9.4) +0.4 FULMER/HAPP
CHC/CIN U9.0 (8.6) -0.4 LESTER/REED
TEX/OAK U8.5 (8.2) -0.3 HAMELS/GRAVEMAN
LAD/ARI O7.5 (7.6) +0.1 KERSHAW/GODLEY
COL/SD O8.5 (8.6) +0.1 FREELAND/ROSSComment -
Monday 4/2/18 MLB Results
5-1 for = +4.07
WIN - ¤ Cardinals +103
LOSS - ¤ Braves +105
WIN - ¤ D-Backs +104
WIN - ¤ Indians -114
WIN - ¤ D-Backs TT Over 4 -105
WIN - ¤ Indians/Angels Under 8 +100
____________________
Season = 14-5 for +9.35
_____________________
ML = 6-4 for +2.09
(Dogs = 3-3 for +0.12)
(Favs = 3-1 for +1.97)
RL = 2-0 for +2.05
O/U = 6-1 for +5.21
(Overs = 2-0 for +2.00)
(Unders = 4-1 for +3.21)
_____________________
Recent Results
4/02 = 2-1 for +4.07
4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
______________________
Damn Braves play ruined my perfect night, I just had to have some 7pm action, oh well, I'm happy, I had two big 2% wins with Nova and the Under also.Comment -
SDQL 4/3
ALL = Yesterday 2-1 (Season: 11-4 for +8.55)
ML = Yesterday 2-1 (Season: 6-3 for +3.95)
RL = Yesterday 0-0 (Season: 3-0 for +3.65)
OU = Yesterday 0-0 (Season: 2-1 for +0.95)
---------------------------------
SU
FADE: Phillies are 0-12 SU since Jul 18, 2014 in the first game of a series with rest off a game as a dog in which they lost by 5+ runs.
team=Phillies and FGS and p and p:margin<=-5 and rest>=1 and date>=20140718
FADE: The Rays are 0-23 SU since Apr 20, 2004 on the road after a game as a home dog in which they had more strikeouts than hits.
team=Rays and A and p:HD and p:SO > p:hits and date>=20040420
FADE: Cubs = -27.6% ROI (68-99)
s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5
PLAY: Rangers, White Sox, Braves, D-Backs, Padres, Reds, Rays = +13.7 ROI (889-883)
179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79
-----------------------------------
OU
__________________________
SDQL PLAYS
ML
Mets -110
Reds +160
Rangers +125
White Sox +170
Braves +105
D-Backs +150
Padres +105
RL
None
OU
None
__________________________Comment -
Great thread. Don’t know how I’ve missed it in the past. Thanks for posting!
Comment
