MLB 2018 - SDQL / Tracking / Picks

[FUqer]

Lol. Once again my perception and reality not the same! I guess on bright side like yanks on Saturday I kinda take that as I'm doing good capping cause have done well with both! Lol

This one tho, there really nothing to like bout over at all, I thought the roof open could be problem for under but appears not! Thanks for taking the time brother, really appreciate it!!

Astros have been over aggressive at the plate and if they continue that against Ross, who I think has some pretty decent off speed stuff, they could lay another egg and Morton can fling it and should get a lot of K's.

[FUqer]

Sunday 4/8/18 MLB Plays

¤ Reds/Pirates FF Under 4 -110


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[2daBank]

Astros have been over aggressive at the plate and if they continue that against Ross, who I think has some pretty decent off speed stuff, they could lay another egg and Morton can fling it and should get a lot of K's.

Yea I agree, I got down on under for half a unit.

[FUqer]

Sunday 4/8/18 MLB Plays

¤ Reds/Pirates FF Under 4 -110


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¤ Marlins/Phillies Under 8 +100

[2daBank]

Man I took my first -200 fav in a parlay today (wanted to have something on cards but wasn't down w -150 so needed a partner) and already regretting it. Pitching mismatch looked so strong for tribe but they just can't freaking hit. Looks like I'm stuck in a game on the overpriced fav similar to your astros play yesterday, or rest of this series! Not a good feeling, dunno how guys bet these favs constantly and feel good about it!! lol

[FUqer]

¤ Braves/Rockies Under 11 +100

[FUqer]

wow, wtf, 1-0 going into bottom of 5th and Pirates explode, still thought it was gonna be a push then another 2 out 2 run homer. FML today.

[2daBank]

wow, wtf, 1-0 going into bottom of 5th and Pirates explode, still thought it was gonna be a push then another 2 out 2 run homer. FML today.

This day turning into a real pain in the ass for me., that what I get for starting off with a stupid -200 fav in a parlay, this tribe offense excruciating to watch make this bum Hammel look like cy young!! Man I thought tribe had such a big advantage in this one, never again!! Lol

Then the reds disaster happened, I was really hopeful yesterday might get their offense to start plating some stinking runs, guess not.

[FUqer]

¤ Mets/Nationals Over 8 -105

¤ Parlay (WIN - Astros -275)(Nationals -170)
____________________

Adding Nationals and Over. GL!

[FUqer]

This day turning into a real pain in the ass for me., that what I get for starting off with a stupid -200 fav in a parlay, this tribe offense excruciating to watch make this bum Hammel look like cy young!! Man I thought tribe had such a big advantage in this one, never again!! Lol

Then the reds disaster happened, I was really hopeful yesterday might get their offense to start plating some stinking runs, guess not.

That Reds/Pirates 5th inning was a rough one, 1-0 and they score 4 runs and nobody scores the rest of the game and the Under hits. I felt real dumb taking the FF, but trying to use common sense and baseball don't mix a lot of the times and I thought it was better to avoid those pens, but I loved the starters. Then 1st innings have been killing me the last 2 days, 5 in the Phillies games and Under loses by a run, but that's baseball, I got lucky a few times so far and been unlucky a few times.

[FUqer]

Man I took my first -200 fav in a parlay today (wanted to have something on cards but wasn't down w -150 so needed a partner) and already regretting it. Pitching mismatch looked so strong for tribe but they just can't freaking hit. Looks like I'm stuck in a game on the overpriced fav similar to your astros play yesterday, or rest of this series! Not a good feeling, dunno how guys bet these favs constantly and feel good about it!! lol

I know a guy who post everyday and runs a parlays system of mostly high chalk 3 and 4 teamers and splits them up and leaves spots open and then hedges the final spot every time and it seems to work for him. I also seen a guy start posting and started out like 15-3 on multi unit high chalk plays and thought he was the best ever and then went a a losing streak and the juice ate him alive, never saw him again lol.

[FUqer]

Sunday 4/8/18 MLB Results

2-3 for -1.10

LOSS - ¤ Reds/Pirates FF Under 4 -110
LOSS - ¤ Marlins/Phillies Under 8 +100
WIN - ¤ Braves/Rockies Under 11 +100
WIN - ¤ Mets/Nationals Over 8 -105

LOSS - ¤ Parlay (WIN - Astros -275)(LOSS - Nationals -170)

____________________
Season = 23-15 for +8.25
_____________________
ML = 8-6 for +2.02
(Dogs = 4-3 for +1.20)
(Favs = 4-3 for +0.82)

RL = 4-2 for +2.05

O/U = 11-6 for +5.18
(Overs = 3-0 for +3.00)
(Unders = 8-6 for +2.18)
Parlays = 0-1 for -1.00
_____________________

Past Results

(Week 2 = 14-11 for +2.97)

4/08 = 2-3 for -1.10
4/07 = 2-3 for -1.00
4/06 = 0-2 for -2.00
4/05 = 3-2 for +1.00
4/04 = 2-0 for +2.00
4/02 = 5-1 for +4.07

(Week 1 = 9-4 for +5.28)

4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
______________________

Had one bad inning in both my Under losses that cost me and the Nationals would of most likely have won if Harper would of took 3rd base on the throwing error, but whatever, I can't complain a too much after the first two weeks.

[OlDirtyBaztid]

great start to the season, bro. if your pirates can get some hitters and fix their bullpen, they will be very impressive. their starting rotation has finally come together and is looking FIRE

[FUqer]

SDQL 4/9

ALL = Yesterday 2-2 for +0.00 (Season: 26-19 for +8.95)

ML = Yesterday 1-2 for -1.00 (Season: 20-15 for +6.50)
RL = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 3-0 for +3.65)
OU = Yesterday 1-0 for +1.00 (Season: 3-4 for -1.20)


---------------------------------
SU

FADE: Astros: -28.0% ROI (68-100)
s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5


FADE: White Sox: -37.3% ROI (21-48)
H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1


PLAY: Giants, Rangers, Padres, Twins: +13.7% ROI (897-891)
179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79


PLAY: Nationals: +11.5% ROI (1047-632)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)


PLAY: Nationals: +32.2% ROI (37-13)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL


PLAY: Angels: +10.0% ROI (561-390)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)


PLAY: Angels: +9.2% ROI (249-151)
AF and pp:LOB=14 and 7<p:LOB<18 and -3<p:margin


PLAY: Twins: +10.2% ROI (146-116)
STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3


FADE: Mets: Teams on the Road after playing on the Road on Sunday night the previous with no rest have lost their last 10.

p:NGT and day=Monday and rest=0 and A and p:A and date>=20170522


-----------------------------------
OU


UNDER: Rays/White Sox: +26.2% ROI (44-22-3)
H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1


UNDER: Braves/Nationals: +20.4% ROI (31-18-1)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL


UNDER: Astros/Twins: +25.0% ROI (168-87-7)
STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3

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SDQL PLAYS


ML


Rays -130
Nationals -230
Twins +150
Angels -125
Padres +170
Giants +105
Marlins +190

OU


Rays/White Sox Under 7.5 -120
Braves/Nationals Under 7.5 +105
Astros/Twins Under 8.0 -105

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I ran my model for totals, but I'm not liking all the Overs lately and even though it managed to go 7-7 yesterday, I'm going to hold off on posting them until the weather warms up a bit. This is only my 4th season for MLB and I only created my model midway through last season, so I have no experience with it in April and these cold weather games and how the best adjust to it. It's done decent so far, but these last couple of days it seems the books have adjusted to the weather pretty good, so the value on Unders are gone.

[FUqer]

Phillies vs a lefty looks great cept I don't like heavily public backed sides.

D-Backs vs that Lefty is tempting, D-Backs were atrocious early last year on the Road vs lefties, but were strong in the 2nd half in that spot and are lights out vs them at Home and Holland is pretty garbage.

Orioles seems to own Happ and do decent vs lefties, might be a good option.

Maybe the Royals and Junis, but I would like to see the lineups, but I got to leave for a couple of hours and don't have time to really look into to anything right now.

[FUqer]

great start to the season, bro. if your pirates can get some hitters and fix their bullpen, they will be very impressive. their starting rotation has finally come together and is looking FIRE

Could be another year where they surprise a lot of people when nobody expected very much from them. I thought they would have a good offense, but that pitching is still suspect. Nova hasn't looked too good at all so far and that worries me. I don't think they'll have enough pitching to compete with the Cubs or Cardinals, but one can hope for the best.

[FUqer]

This Season So Far, I will update every month or so.


Favorites = 59.5% for -0.4% ROI
Dogs = 40.5% for -4.3% ROI


Home = 46.7% for -11.1% ROI
Away = 53.3% for +8.3% ROI


Road Favs = 63.8% for +8.9% ROI
Home Favs = 56.2% for -6.9% ROI


Road Dogs = 43.8% for +5.5% ROI
Home Dogs = 36.2% for -16.8% ROI


Favs -100 to -125 = 53.3% for -0.2% ROI
Favs -126 to -150 = 63.9% for +9.7% ROI
Favs -151 to -175 = 55.0% for -10.7% ROI
Favs -176 to -200 = 50.0% for -23.5% ROI
Favs -201 to -250 = 75.0% for +9.0% ROI
Favs -251+ = 66.7% for -10.4% ROI


O/U = 61-70-4 for -9.3% ROI for Overs and +1.3% ROI for Unders

[FUqer]

Monday 4/9/18 MLB Plays

¤ Phillies -1 +110
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I gotta go with the Phillies today even though they are popular with the public. I like them vs lefties and Cody Reed has a 0-11 team record for his career and Lively isn't that bad of a pitcher, he just didn't get very good run support last year. Favs in this price range so far this season have been pretty good, so I'll hope that continues today. GL!

[FUqer]

SDQL addition.

FADE: Mets: Teams on the Road after playing on the Road on Sunday night the previous with no rest have lost their last 10.

0-10 (-2.40, 0.0%)	avg line: -127.3 / 112.5	on / against: -$1,388 / +$1,321	ROI: -100.0% / +105.4%
1-9 (-2.10, 10.0%)	avg line: -142.3 / 121.8	on / against: -$1,205 / +$1,060	ROI: -79.5% / +96.8%
3-7-0 (-1.25, 30.0%)	avg total: 9.1	over / under: -$440 / +$375	ROI: -40.9% / +33.3%

[2daBank]

I know a guy who post everyday and runs a parlays system of mostly high chalk 3 and 4 teamers and splits them up and leaves spots open and then hedges the final spot every time and it seems to work for him. I also seen a guy start posting and started out like 15-3 on multi unit high chalk plays and thought he was the best ever and then went a a losing streak and the juice ate him alive, never saw him again lol.

Oh yea I've seen a bunch of those types over the years. Doesn't take many losses to bury that winning streak! I don't mind the parlay method, that only way I'll play them but always 2 teams and usually don't go over the -200 range and typically have one of them lot lower than that. I def think doing them open is the way to go if you gonna do them (saw you had a open one over weekend didn't see if you closed) instead of forcing the plays to close it out. Wanna play cards and there lot of high priced favs tonight, thinking maybe cards/muts even tho I think urena's gets underpriced quite often as squares always fading fish and metrics guys don't like him either typically leading to some value on him. Just like way muts playing right now I think will do cards/muts 2 teamer!

[FUqer]

Monday 4/9/18 MLB Plays

¤ Phillies -1 +110
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¤ Orioles -113

________________

[2daBank]

Could be another year where they surprise a lot of people when nobody expected very much from them. I thought they would have a good offense, but that pitching is still suspect. Nova hasn't looked too good at all so far and that worries me. I don't think they'll have enough pitching to compete with the Cubs or Cardinals, but one can hope for the best.

Trading Cole was such a mistake if they wanted to compete (didn't sound like they got all that much for him either? Like a bag of balls and player to be named later! Lol). Agree w offense but yea that starting rotation still pretty suspect imo. Think opponents have helped how they looked so far.

[FUqer]

Trading Cole was such a mistake if they wanted to compete (didn't sound like they got all that much for him either? Like a bag of balls and player to be named later! Lol). Agree w offense but yea that starting rotation still pretty suspect imo. Think opponents have helped how they looked so far.

yea Tigers and Reds and a split with the Twins, not exactly tough competition outside of the Twins who are decent. Might of had a chance if they kept Cole and Cutch. I've always been a fan of Cole's passion and I think playing for the Astros is gonna give him a jolt, he seemed a little disinterested last year and that was unusual for him. It wouldn't surprise me if he demanded to be traded.

Chacin is pretty garbage, 0-6 team record vs Cards too.
Thor has been one of the more impressive pitchers so far this season to me.

[FUqer]

wow, the Rays got so lucky there with 0 outs and man on 2nd and 3rd and 3 str8 weak ground ball outs, avoiding a 9 game losing streak.

[FUqer]

Just tuned into Phillies game, bases loaded for Reds and 0 outs already, another 1st inning disaster, yikes. Long game though, at least it's not a under play.

[2daBank]

Just tuned into Phillies game, bases loaded for Reds and 0 outs already, another 1st inning disaster, yikes. Long game though, at least it's not a under play.

In what turning into typical putrid reds fashion they only get the 1 run! That another offense that been absolute dog shit early on. They have few guys hitting but nobody doing so w men on base.

[FUqer]

In what turning into typical putrid reds fashion they only get the 1 run! That another offense that been absolute dog shit early on. They have few guys hitting but nobody doing so w men on base.

yep, got lucky there and just dodged a based loaded situation for the Blue Jays, could be my lucky day.

[2daBank]

yep, got lucky there and just dodged a based loaded situation for the Blue Jays, could be my lucky day.

I'm losing patients fast for cards. Between the stupid manager and the continued redic stupid base running I can't take much more!! 2 leadoff hits and both guys get thrown out trying to take a extra base!! Just unreal the level of stupid on this team since matheny been in charge!!

[FUqer]

Monday 4/9/18 MLB Plays

¤ Phillies -1 +110
____________________

¤ Orioles -113

________________

¤ D-Backs TT Over 4 +105
¤ D-Backs/Giants Over 7.5 -110

[FUqer]

I'm losing patients fast for cards. Between the stupid manager and the continued redic stupid base running I can't take much more!! 2 leadoff hits and both guys get thrown out trying to take a extra base!! Just unreal the level of stupid on this team since matheny been in charge!!

Been lots of bad base running so far, Harper prolly cost them the game last night.

[FUqer]

Monday 4/9/18 MLB Results

0-3-1 for -3.23

PUSH - ¤ Phillies -1 +110
LOSS - ¤ Orioles -113

LOSS - ¤ D-Backs TT Over 4 +105
LOSS - ¤ D-Backs/Giants Over 7.5 -110

____________________
Season = 23-18 for +5.02
_____________________

ML = 8-7 for +0.89
(Dogs = 4-3 for +1.20)
(Favs = 4-4 for -0.31)

RL = 4-2 for +2.05

O/U = 11-8 for +3.08
(Overs = 3-2 for +0.90)
(Unders = 8-6 for +2.18)

Parlays = 0-1 for -1.00
_____________________
Past Results

4/09 = 0-3 for -3.23

(Week 2 = 14-11 for +2.97)

4/08 = 2-3 for -1.10
4/07 = 2-3 for -1.00
4/06 = 0-2 for -2.00
4/05 = 3-2 for +1.00
4/04 = 2-0 for +2.00
4/02 = 5-1 for +4.07

(Week 1 = 9-4 for +5.28)

4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
______________________

Another losing night, need to put a stop to it tomorrow. Got a couple already.

[FUqer]

Tuesday 4/10/18 MLB Plays


¤ Mariners -110


¤ Giants -111
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[FUqer]

Tuesday 4/10/18 MLB Plays


¤ Mariners -110 (Action)


¤ Giants -111
____________________

Forgot to add that the Mariners play is an action play. All other plays are listed unless specified otherwise.

[BeBrave]

On board BOL

What do you mean by action play?

[FUqer]

On board BOL

What do you mean by action play?

Means if there is a pitching change the play still stands, unlike my Giants play which is canceled cause the listed pitcher Cueto is not pitching now. I had an outside hope that Paxton would pitch instead of Felix, so I choose Action instead of listed, and if there was a change to Paxton the line would of gone higher, but I wasn't counting on it. GL2U2!