MLB 2018 - SDQL / Tracking / Picks

[FUqer]

Thursday 4/5/18 MLB Plays

¤ Mariners -112
____________________

¤ Padres -103

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Lucchesi has impressive minor league stats and Tyler Anderson 4-12 team record on the road for his career.
Lucchesi lost his first start but wasn't near as bad as Anderson was in his opener and througout spring.
Padres went 13-10 last season at Home vs a lefty starter and that's pretty good considering how many good lefties they have to face in their division and their overall record.
Rockies were only 12-12 on the Road vs a lefty starter last season, but were 16-8 at Home vs them.
Also have a decent SDQL trend for the Padres for extra confidence.

[OlDirtyBaztid]

¤ Padres -103

___________________

Lucchesi has impressive minor league stats and Tyler Anderson 4-12 team record on the road for his career.
Lucchesi lost his first start but wasn't near as bad as Anderson was in his opener and througout spring.
Padres went 13-10 last season at Home vs a lefty starter and that's pretty good considering how many good lefties they have to face in their division and their overall record.
Rockies were only 12-12 on the Road vs a lefty starter last season, but were 16-8 at Home vs them.
Also have a decent SDQL trend for the Padres for extra confidence.

gonna be on the padre's as well, but i'm gonna wait to see if i can get them at plus money first. the twinkies line does look pretty damn suspicious and i was going to keep that on my radar as well. just so hard to back paxton. the guy throws meatballs, especially to the twins

[FUqer]

gonna be on the padre's as well, but i'm gonna wait to see if i can get them at plus money first. the twinkies line does look pretty damn suspicious and i was going to keep that on my radar as well. just so hard to back paxton. the guy throws meatballs, especially to the twins

I wanted to get them before 8am, while 5D still offered reduced juice on ML.

[FUqer]

Red Sox 11-2 L13 Home Openers, 70-47 overall.


Nationals 1-3 L4 Home Openers, 4-8 L12.


Phillies 0-6 L6 Home Openers, 2-10 L12, 9-24 L33.


Cardinals 3-1 L4 Home Openers, 4-7 L11.


Twins 1-5 L6 Home Openers.


White Sox 0-3 L3 Home Openers, 12-4 L16.

[FUqer]

LOL, they released the Eagle before the Twins game and when it came back it landed on Paxton's shoulder, that's a pretty good sign.

[2daBank]

LOL, they released the Eagle before the Twins game and when it came back it landed on Paxton's shoulder, that's a pretty good sign.

Nice. Looked good 1st inning and nice they got him few early runs, played Gordon and segura a lot in dfs today unfortunately only few lineups not littered w bum ass Red Sox, lol

[FUqer]

¤ Orioles/Yankees Under 8.5 +102

[2daBank]

These Seattle jerkoffs gonna blow it. Wtf Paxton problem? I only saw little early and he was popping gun, I can't stand when guys with that good of stuff throw 100 stinking pitches in 5 innings of work! Don't even get me started on the offense and how they only managed 2 runs off that scrub twinks had on the hill, they had base runners everywhere early and again last inning and can't get any of them home!!

[FUqer]

¤ Orioles/Yankees Under 8.5 +102

¤ D-Backs +108

[FUqer]

These Seattle jerkoffs gonna blow it. Wtf Paxton problem? I only saw little early and he was popping gun, I can't stand when guys with that good of stuff throw 100 stinking pitches in 5 innings of work! Don't even get me started on the offense and how they only managed 2 runs off that scrub twinks had on the hill, they had base runners everywhere early and again last inning and can't get any of them home!!

He hung a curve ball to Sano who smashed it for a 2 run HR. Their inability to get a hit with runners in scoring pitching doomed them though.

[2daBank]

He hung a curve ball to Sano who smashed it for a 2 run HR. Their inability to get a hit with runners in scoring pitching doomed them though.

Yea not really mad about the hr, shit happens. Just that he took so many pitches leaving pen overly exposed. But yea I agree mostly on offense not driving in runners they had all over the place early. They get one last chance to redeem themselves against biggest scrub closer in game after blowing it vs the terrrible starter!

[FUqer]

Yea not really mad about the hr, shit happens. Just that he took so many pitches leaving pen overly exposed. But yea I agree mostly on offense not driving in runners they had all over the place early. They get one last chance to redeem themselves against biggest scrub closer in game after blowing it vs the terrrible starter!

Was hoping for a Rodney special.

[FUqer]

Considering the Under in the Cubs/Brewers game, will be another last minute play, might have to be U8.5 if I do.

[2daBank]

Considering the Under in the Cubs/Brewers game, will be another last minute play, might have to be U8.5 if I do.

I had a really hard time with that one, really just pissed I didn't jump on brewers at the good overnight price. I think Cain will get on bases and mess w Lester then Braun prob knock him around as he tends to do. I hate 8.5 in that park cause it gets to 4-4 so easy way ball jumps there. Not sure Cubs can get to 4 but little concern as I do think milw will.. I'm just passing kicking myself for not getting fat plus on brewers as I was slow to getting to this game. Gl if you play it bro.

[FUqer]

I had a really hard time with that one, really just pissed I didn't jump on brewers at the good overnight price. I think Cain will get on bases and mess w Lester then Braun prob knock him around as he tends to do. I hate 8.5 in that park cause it gets to 4-4 so easy way ball jumps there. Not sure Cubs can get to 4 but little concern as I do think milw will.. I'm just passing kicking myself for not getting fat plus on brewers as I was slow to getting to this game. Gl if you play it bro.

Definitely considered the Brewers myself. I hate the take the 8.5 also, especially when I got it projected at 8.7, but went against projections in the Yankee game and gonna chance the 8.5 here, cuz I just can't do the juice on 9.

[FUqer]

¤ Orioles/Yankees Under 8.5 +102

¤ D-Backs +108

¤ Cubs/Brewers Under 8.5 +105

[2daBank]

Definitely considered the Brewers myself. I hate the take the 8.5 also, especially when I got it projected at 8.7, but went against projections in the Yankee game and gonna chance the 8.5 here, cuz I just can't do the juice on 9.

Yea I totally understand, I wouldn't lay the juice on 9 either.. hope it cashes brotha

[FUqer]

Freak injury to Brewers closer and they had to bring in their 1st baseman Perez to pitch, with 2 outs in Top of 9th, one pitch and got the out, lol. Under looked toast early but Brewers laid their 2nd egg in a row.

[FUqer]

Thursday 4/5/18 MLB Results

3-2 for +1.00

LOSS - ¤ Mariners -112
LOSS - ¤ Padres -103
WIN - ¤ D-Backs +108

WIN - ¤ Orioles/Yankees Under 8.5 +102
WIN - ¤ Cubs/Brewers Under 8.5 +105
____________________
Season = 19-7 for +12.35
_____________________

ML = 7-6 for +1.02
(Dogs = 4-3 for +1.20)
(Favs = 3-3 for -0.18)

RL = 3-0 for +3.05

O/U = 9-1 for +8.28
(Overs = 2-0 for +2.00)
(Unders = 7-1 for +6.28)

_____________________
Recent Results

4/05 = 3-2 for +1.00
4/04 = 2-0 for +2.00
4/02 = 5-1 for +4.07
4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
______________________

Rough start for the day at 0-2 with the Mariners blowing a 2-0 lead and staining the bed with RISP and the Padres played terrible defense and had too many errors, then walked in the go ahead run, tied 0-0 in the 9th.

Was able to add three winners and finish ahead for the day, but not without some late inning drama.

[FUqer]

SDQL 4/6


ALL = Yesterday 2-2 for +1.50 (Season: 20-9 for +15.10)

ML = Yesterday 2-2 for +1.50 (Season: 15-7 for +11.65)
RL = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 3-0 for +3.65)
OU = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 2-1 for -0.20)


---------------------------------
SU


PLAY: Rangers: +11.7% ROI (1047-630)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



PLAY: Athletics and Reds: +13.6% ROI (894-889)
179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79


FADE: Brewers: -11.1% ROI (455-579)
p:margin=-8


FADE: Padres are 0-13 their L13 games as a DOG.
team=Padres and D and date>=20170922


__________________________

SDQL PLAYS


ML


Rangers +105
Athletics +120
Reds -120
Cubs -135
Astros -255

_____________________

Friday's Totals Projections

Yesterday = 4-5



(Overall = 48-34) (Overs = 20-16) (Unders = 28-18)


KC/CLE O7.5 (8.5) +1.0

ATL/COL O10.5 (11.3) +0.8

BAL/NYY U9.5 (8.8) -0.7

CIN/PIT O7.5 (8.2) +0.7

SD/HOU U8.5 (7.9) -0.6

LAD/SF U8.0 (7.4) -0.6

TOR/TEX O10.0 (10.6) +0.6

CHC/MIL U9.0 (8.7) -0.3

OAK/LAA O9.0 (9.3) +0.3

[positivebankroll]

SDQL 4/6


ALL = Yesterday 2-2 for +1.50 (Season: 20-9 for +15.10)

ML = Yesterday 2-2 for +1.50 (Season: 15-7 for +11.65)
RL = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 3-0 for +3.65)
OU = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 2-1 for -0.20)


---------------------------------
SU


PLAY: Rangers: +11.7% ROI (1047-630)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



PLAY: Athletics and Reds: +13.6% ROI (894-889)
179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79


FADE: Brewers: -11.1% ROI (455-579)
p:margin=-8


FADE: Padres are 0-13 their L13 games as a DOG.
team=Padres and D and date>=20170922


__________________________

SDQL PLAYS


ML


Rangers +105
Athletics +120
Reds -120
Cubs -135
Astros -255

_____________________

Friday's Totals Projections

Yesterday = 4-5



(Overall = 48-34) (Overs = 20-16) (Unders = 28-18)


KC/CLE O7.5 (8.5) +1.0

ATL/COL O10.5 (11.3) +0.8

BAL/NYY U9.5 (8.8) -0.7

CIN/PIT O7.5 (8.2) +0.7

SD/HOU U8.5 (7.9) -0.6

LAD/SF U8.0 (7.4) -0.6

TOR/TEX O10.0 (10.6) +0.6

CHC/MIL U9.0 (8.7) -0.3

OAK/LAA O9.0 (9.3) +0.3

FU Tex and Oak are in a series, how does that work?

[FUqer]

Reds gonna be a popular play today, and as a Pirates fan I don't see them losing this one, they have gotten the better of them a lot lately, so 2 in a row would be a surprise, and the overnight line movement pretty much laminates that thought. Castillo pitched a 1-0 gem late last year vs the Pirates and Cole and Williams looked sharp in his opener. I'm leaning to the Under and don't really want to take a -1 and -120 is about the limit for juice for me. I have the Reds -110, but value isn't that important to me as I'm choosing to focus on wins rather than volume and value right now, I'm just not playing a lot of juice. Almost anytime I play a -1 line, it will be going against the value, because I don't think they should of been favored by that much and the books are picking a side, like with the Athletics the other day when every else was in love with the value on the Rangers, I took the A's -1 and it worked out nicely. But. I don't want the Reds to get too popular and they don't play until 7 pm, so I'm going hang back and continue to monitor the line.

Not really loving this card as far as sides and prices, Cubs followed by the Dodgers ones I like somewhat right now. The Orioles FF seems tempting and I'm on the fence with the Blue Jays and Angels, so I'll prolly just pass on those. Hopefully, I can find some good total plays.

Bridwell for the Angels had an amazing record last year, but I don't really have him rated that high, so I'm hesitant until I get to see him in a game this year. I actually have Gossett rated slightly better and I expect him to improve some this year. This Angel team could be a sleeper though, I liked them and the Brewers coming into the season, but I'm backing off the Brewers a little after seeing how bad their pitching is, and now their closer got hurt last night. I thought they would give the Cardinals a run for 2nd in the division, but the Cards are clearly better, I underestimated their offensive capabilities coming into the season. It's going to be a good battle for the wild card between the Angel and Twins, IMO.

Another trend for the day. The Under was 16-4-2 last season when the Blue Jays played on the Road against a left handed starter.

[FUqer]

FU Tex and Oak are in a series, how does that work?

Rangers play Blue Jays and Athletics play the Angels

But, if there was two contradicting trends, I would cancel them out as far as the SDQL plays go, but others might think one is stronger than the other and choose to use that one.

[FUqer]

FU Tex and Oak are in a series, how does that work?

Rangers play Blue Jays and Athletics play the Angels

But, if there was two contradicting trends, I would cancel them out as far as the SDQL plays go, but others might think one is stronger than the other and choose to use that one.

The Rangers one is actually one of my favorites and is 11-1 L12, but the Blue Jays were one of my few potentials for the day, so I'm prolly gonna to personally pass on that game. But less than 25% for that trend have been dogs, so that stood out to me and dogs actually have a higher ROI at +15.1%. I like Estrada better than Moore, but Moore hasn't done to bad vs them. I may actually give the Rangers a deeper look after typing this and I also want to look at the Under.

[positivebankroll]

Rangers play Blue Jays and Athletics play the Angels

But, if there was two contradicting trends, I would cancel them out as far as the SDQL plays go, but others might think one is stronger than the other and choose to use that one.

Thank F my bad!!

[FUqer]

Thank F my bad!!

np, it happens

[FUqer]

Friday 4/6/18 MLB Plays

¤ Reds FF -.5 +110
¤ Reds -1 +103
____________________

With the Giants game getting cancelled for today and tomorrow for still unknown reasons to me, the small card just got a bit smaller. Going to look into the Astros Under and maybe a few others if I have time. GL!

[FUqer]

I really wanted to play Pirates TT Under also but I wanted 2 FF or 4 game.

Pirates last 8 games after Williams had a quality start.

0-8 (-3.25, 0.0%) avg line: 120.0 / -130.2 on / against: -$876 / +$850 ROI: -100.0% / +77.1% 1-7 (-2.88, 12.5%) avg line: -111.1 / -109.4 on / against: -$755 / +$680 ROI: -74.8% / +66.0% 1-7-0 (0.00, 12.5%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$667 / +$590 ROI: -76.1% / +66.8%

2.75 3.00 6.50 6.88 1.25 0.88 1.75 0.62 0.38 13.12 6.75 0.67 3.38 3.44 6.00 3.38 7.75 9.00 1.75 1.12 3.62 1.62 6.50 15.75 6.50 0.78 1.00 3.78

[FUqer]

I didn't care for what I found for the Under in the Astros game and looked into the Over in the Indians game, but nothing convincing there either. Here are some small things I found for the Indians game.


Indians 2-7 L9 Home Openers.

Indians 14-2 L16 vs a Lefty starter.

Under 40-21-1 last season for the Indians vs a Lefty starter.

Danny Duffy 2-7 team record L9 starts on the Road vs his Division.

Carlos Carrasco 8-1 team record L9 starts at Home vs his Division.

Indians 13-2 the last two seasons at Home in the FGS after losing an Away game.

Indians 11-18 at Home in April since 2015 for -33.0% ROI.

Road Dogs on 2 days rest are 36-57 38.7% for -9.3% ROI, and 8-16 vs a team with one day rest for -17.8% ROI.

[FUqer]

Friday 4/6/18 MLB Results

0-2 for -2.00

LOSS - ¤ Reds FF -.5 +110
LOSS - ¤ Reds -1 +103

____________________
Season = 19-9 for +10.35
_____________________

ML = 7-6 for +1.02
(Dogs = 4-3 for +1.20)
(Favs = 3-3 for -0.18)

RL = 3-2 for +1.05

O/U = 9-1 for +8.28
(Overs = 2-0 for +2.00)
(Unders = 7-1 for +6.28)

_____________________
Recent Results

4/06 = 0-2 for -2.00
4/05 = 3-2 for +1.00
4/04 = 2-0 for +2.00
4/02 = 5-1 for +4.07
4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
______________________

Couldn't of been more wrong about the Reds game, Castillo threw way too many pitches trying to be too perfect and the Reds couldn't get the job done when they got one base and they had plenty of chances. Oh well, not gonna be the last losing effort, today is a new day.

[FUqer]

SDQL 4/7


ALL = Yesterday 0-5 for -7.10 (Season: 20-14 for +8.00)

ML = Yesterday 0-5 for -7.10 (Season: 15-12 for +4.55)
RL = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 3-0 for +3.65)
OU = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 2-1 for -0.20)


---------------------------------
SU


FADE: Blue Jays: -27.6% ROI (68-99)
s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5


PLAY: Cardinals: +31.2% ROI (36-13)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL


PLAY: Pirates: +29.6% ROI (118-48)
season>=2013 and month in [3,4] and H and HPU in [Jerry Layne, Dan Bellino, Mike Everitt,David Rackley, John Tumpane, Doug Eddings, Victor Carapazza]


FADE: Marlins are 0-20 SU as a road dog of more than 120 when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed six or fewer hits.
team = Marlins and A and line>120 and po:hits <= 6 and p:L and SG > 1 and season >= 2012


FADE: Orioles are 0-17 SU since May 11, 2013 in not the first game of a series off a road game in which they played extra innings.
team = Orioles and p:A and p:X and SG > 1 and date >= 20130511

-----------------------------------
OU


UNDER: D-Backs/Cardinals: +25.5% ROI (168-86-7)
STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3


UNDER: D-Backs/Cardinals: +23.1% ROI (31-17-1)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL


UNDER: Rays/Red Sox: +23.3% ROI (89-47-8)
H and 8.5 >= total >= 7 and tA(runs) <= 4.2 and o:STDSERA <= 4.2 and o:conference = AL and po:runs <= 4 and ppo:runs <= 4 and pppo:runs <= 4 and ppppo:runs <= 4 and pppppo:runs <= 4


__________________________

SDQL PLAYS



ML


Rangers +115
Cardinals -110
Pirates -120
Phillies -150
Yankees -205


OU


D-Backs/Cardinals Under 7 +110
Rays/Red Sox Under 8.5 +110
___________________________________


Saturday's Totals Projections


yesterday = 5-2-1


(Overall = 53-36) (Overs = 24-17) (Unders = 29-19)


COL O11.5 (13.5) +2.0

TOR O9.5 (10.4) +0.9

NYY U9.5 (8.8) -0.7

CLE O7.5 (8.2) +0.7

PIT O8.0 (8.6) +0.6

ARI U7.5 (7.0) -0.5

DET O8.0 (8.4) +0.4

SEA O8.0 (8.3) +0.3

BOS O8.5 (8.8) +0.3

CHC O8.5 (8.7) +0.2

HOU O8.0 (8.2) +0.2

WAS O8.0 (8.2) +0.2

MIA U8.0 (7.9) -0.1

LAA O8.5 (8.6) +0.1
-----------------------

I think that's the most Over projections I've had in my short time, I'm not sure what to think of it yet, Overs usually do pretty good for my projections, but seems like the books set some lower totals cuz of the weather and Unders seemingly hitting a bunch so far.

First losing day for the SDQL plays yesterday and boy was it a bad one, 0-5. I'm not too sure about adding those heavy chalk plays to it, if they don't come through, I'll start posting them, but leaving them out of the plays.

A reminder for everyone who doesn't already know, I do not personally play those SDQL plays, I use them as another tool for my personal plays and sometimes I'll play them and once in awhile I'll even go against one. It's up to people to use their own judgement. GL!

[FUqer]

Saturday 4/7/18 MLB Plays


¤ Cardinals -105

¤ D-Backs/Cardinals Under 7 +113

____________________

[2daBank]

Crazy you got all those over yet seem so low to me on the yanks game! I really like that one to fly over, actually kinda like you having it projected lower makes me feel better about line. I just don't really trust Tillman or gray to go real deep and after the bullpen marathon last night think should be few innings w some fireworks. Prob squarest thing I play is Saturday daytime overs in the Bronx, freaking love them. I doubt I bet them all so curious if you ran it where it hit at? I'd assume pretty good.

[FUqer]

Crazy you got all those over yet seem so low to me on the yanks game! I really like that one to fly over, actually kinda like you having it projected lower makes me feel better about line. I just don't really trust Tillman or gray to go real deep and after the bullpen marathon last night think should be few innings w some fireworks. Prob squarest thing I play is Saturday daytime overs in the Bronx, freaking love them. I doubt I bet them all so curious if you ran it where it hit at? I'd assume pretty good.

Surprisingly not that great. I did like the way Gray looked his first outing, but has not been great vs the Orioles and Tillman is Tillman now, or else I would consider the Under. I picked the Under last night in a contest and the Grand Slam got me in the 14th inning, and I stayed up watching it till the end.

Yankees seem to project an Under a lot at Home, even though I do have them at +1.05 on park factors and in my top 10 hitters parks. It seems to do pretty good, so I don't mess with it. I think a lot of their Under projections is cuz of their bullpen, even though they haven't been the greatest so far. I did end up lowering the Padres park factors cuz I kept getting too many Over projections and raising the Rangers cuz too many Unders. I got a few more changes that prolly need to be made and want to research some more on the parks, but as long as their doing good, I'm not gonna mess with it too much.

Yankees at Home in Day games.

221-239-20 (0.39, 48.0%)

avg total: 9.2

over / under: -$4,084 / -$348

ROI: -7.7% / -0.7%

2017

18-15-1 (0.59, 54.5%)

avg total: 9.0

over / under: +$155 / -$445

ROI: +4.1% / -12.0%

2016

11-21-0 (-0.66, 34.4%)

avg total: 8.3

over / under: -$1,287 / +$910

ROI: -35.5% / +26.6%

2015

15-16-2 (0.82, 48.4%)

avg total: 8.0

over / under: -$277 / -$35

ROI: -7.5% / -1.0%

[2daBank]

I only like the Saturday ones, can you do that if not too much trouble?

I was on over yesterday, lol. Very rare I get a gift like that!