MLB 2018 - SDQL / Tracking / Picks

[positivebankroll]

Monday 4/2/18 MLB Results

5-1 for = +4.07

WIN - ¤ Cardinals +103
LOSS - ¤ Braves +105
WIN - ¤ D-Backs +104
WIN - ¤ Indians -114

WIN - ¤ D-Backs TT Over 4 -105

WIN - ¤ Indians/Angels Under 8 +100
____________________
Season = 14-5 for +9.35
_____________________

ML = 6-4 for +2.09
(Dogs = 3-3 for +0.12)
(Favs = 3-1 for +1.97)

RL = 2-0 for +2.05

O/U = 6-1 for +5.21
(Overs = 2-0 for +2.00)
(Unders = 4-1 for +3.21)

_____________________
Recent Results

4/02 = 2-1 for +4.07
4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
______________________

Damn Braves play ruined my perfect night, I just had to have some 7pm action, oh well, I'm happy, I had two big 2% wins with Nova and the Under also.

FUqer do you post when you go as high as 2%?

[FUqer]

Great thread. Don’t know how I’ve missed it in the past. Thanks for posting!

YW, Thanks!

[FUqer]

FUqer do you post when you go as high as 2%?

Yea, but I rarely do them, especially for baseball.

[FUqer]

I got to head out of town to Dayton for business in a few minutes and didn't have enough time to look over some things, so no plays for today. I'm hoping I make it back in time for tonight's games. I do lean the Over in Detroit and the Giants ML, but didn't get to check them out too much. Rangers and Angels interest me a little for tonight.

[positivebankroll]

Yea, but I rarely do them, especially for baseball.

Thanks bro!! Keep it up your work here is invaluable!!

[FUqer]

Gonna pass tonight. Was close to playing the Angels FF -.5 or TT Over 4, but couldn't do it after I remembered the Angels lost 12 in a row to the Indians. I was thinking that the Angels power hitters were going to be able to knock a couple out against Tomlin who is a flyball pitcher.

[2daBank]

Ugh, don't like hearing that stat. I played halo's myself! Lol

[FUqer]

Ugh, don't like hearing that stat. I played halo's myself! Lol

Streak has to end sometime, prolly tonight. Trout gonna bust a 3 run HR.

[2daBank]

Streak has to end sometime, prolly tonight. Trout gonna bust a 3 run HR.

Sounds good to me. I have ml to finish parlay then ff and full game run line.

[2daBank]

Is it just me or does Richards suck balls!!

[FUqer]

Is it just me or does Richards suck balls!!

Good thing Tomlin sucks worse, might not make it out of the 1st, wow.

[FUqer]

wow crazy end in Cardinals game, back to back with 2 outs.

[huskers22]

That was unreal. Brewers saved my parlay. Now I just need nuggets and spurs in nba

[FUqer]

That was unreal. Brewers saved my parlay. Now I just need nuggets and spurs in nba

Can't believe Spurs gave that up, but then again couldn't believe the Cardinal gave it up, roller coaster night for you, I'm sure.

[FUqer]

SDQL 4/4


ALL = Yesterday 5-1 (Season: 16-5 for +13.40)

ML = Yesterday 5-1 (Season: 11-4 for +8.80)
RL = Yesterday 0-0 (Season: 3-0 for +3.65)
OU = Yesterday 0-0 (Season: 2-1 for +0.95)


---------------------------------
SU


PLAY: Angels = +9.9% (560-390)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)


PLAY: Giants = +30.2% ROI (35-13)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL



PLAY: Mariners, Orioles = +13.7% ROI (892-885)
179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79


FADE: The Padres are 0-11 their L11 games as a DOG.
team=Padres and D and date>=20170922


-----------------------------------
OU


UNDER: Mariners/Giants = +25.6% ROI (31-16-1)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL

__________________________

SDQL PLAYS


ML


Angels +135
Orioles +165
Rockies -120

RL

None

OU


Mariners/Giants Under 7.5 -115
___________________________________

[FUqer]

The story of the day will be the wind.

18 mph out in ATL

20 mph out in NYY & NYM

27 mph out in DET

22 mph out in PIT

16 mph out in SF

[Cardinals01]

Fuqer- Great job yesterday and impressive results so far. Thanks for the information you provide.

[FUqer]

Fuqer- Great job yesterday and impressive results so far. Thanks for the information you provide.

Thanks! I wish things would continue at this rate, but things will most certainly regress at some point.

[FUqer]

Wednesday's Totals Projections



(Overall = 39-26) (Overs = 17-10) Unders = 22-16)



COL O7.0 (8.2) +1.2

TOR O9.0 (9.8) +0.8

HOU U8.5 (7.8) -0.7

PIT O8.0 (8.5) +0.5

CLE U7.0 (6.5) -0.5

NYY O8.0 (8.4) +0.4

SF U7.5 (7.2) -0.3

KC O9.0 (9.2) +0.2

OAK O8.5 (8.6) +0.1

LAD U8.0 (7.9) -0.1

NYM P7.0 (7.0) 0.0

WAS P8.0 (8.0) 0.0

STL P9.0 (9.0) 0.0

[FUqer]

FADE: The Padres are 0-11 thier L11 games as a DOG.
team=Padres and D and date>=20170922

0-11 (-4.45, 0.0%) avg line: 142.8 / -157.8 on / against: -$1,102 / +$1,100 ROI: -100.0% / +62.0% 2-9 (-2.95, 18.2%) avg line: -143.8 / 124.0 on / against: -$1,045 / +$928 ROI: -65.7% / +78.6% 8-3-0 (1.45, 72.7%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: +$485 / -$590 ROI: +40.9% / -47.8%

2.55 2.55 9.45 7.73 2.09 1.00 1.73 0.73 1.09 13.27 6.70 0.75 4.64 3.92 7.00 3.91 7.09 11.09 3.09 1.64 3.64 2.00 6.36 15.36 7.40 1.08 1.73 4.25

[FUqer]

Mets 6-18 in Home Day games last year, 2-10 L12.
Phillies 10-18 in Road Day games last year, 7-3 L10.


Dodgers 4-2 avoiding the sweep in a 3 game series last year. They were swept both times by the D-backs.
D-Backs were 9-3 when going for a 3 game sweep last year, 6-1 at Home.
Home Dogs going for a 3 game sweep last year were 11-23 -28.1% ROI and 16-26 for -14.1% ROI in 2016.


All 5 starts by Corey Kluber vs the Angels have been Overs, average score of 11.20, 3 of them in LA.
All 3 starts by Tyler Skaggs vs the Indians have been Overs, average score of 11.33, 2 of them at Home.
Indians 40-21-1 UNDER last year vs Left Handed Starters.
Indians 17-1 L18 Day games.

[hotcross]

Wednesday's Totals Projections
(Overall = 39-26) (Overs = 17-10) Unders = 22-16)

very helpful, thanks !!!

How much time does it take you on a daily basis? Meaning all of your MLB capping?

[FUqer]

I was close to play the Over in the Mets game, but I want to be extra sure when playing Overs on low totals and I don't like how it's so low with all that wind and both pitchers did look really good their first start, so I'm going to stay disciplined and cautious and pass on it.

Feel kind of the same way with the Over in the Nationals and Indians game. I'm still considering the Dodgers, but I'm going to monitor the line and see how these early games go. Wood wasn't that impressive, and the I posted the other day how good the D-Backs have been vs Lefties at Home. The only real angle I have here is the sweep angle and line movement, so I'll wait and see. I haven't got to the later games yet.

[FUqer]

very helpful, thanks !!!

How much time does it take you on a daily basis? Meaning all of your MLB capping?

Model = 30-45 mins depending on if I have to add any new pitchers

SDQL = 20-30 mins depending on how many in my collection I decide to check for daily hits.

Organizing/Tracking = 30 mins

Matchup Research - Varies on how many games I'm interested in and how in depth I want to go.

--------------------------

I prolly spend at least 2 hours and up to half the day sometimes, it just depends how I feel and how much time I have, but I enjoy doing it and helping others and learning new things. It's a nice break from Politics for me.

[FUqer]

Wednesday 4/4/18 MLB Plays


¤ Athletics -1 -115

¤ Cardinals/Brewers Under 9 -107
____________________

These are mostly contrarian and line plays rather than overwhelming analysis. There was some things I liked and also a few question marks, but I'll take the risk. GL!

[FUqer]

Thursday's Totals Projections




ARI U8.0 (6.9) -1.1 RAY/WAINWRIGHT

MIA O8.5 (9.4) +0.9 SMITH/PIVETTA

TEX U9.5 (9.0) -0.5 PEREZ/MENGDEN

PIT O8.5 (8.9) +0.4 BAILEY/BRAULT

CHC U9.0 (8.7) -0.3 LESTER/BUTLER

DET U9.5 (9.3) -0.2 ZIMMERMAN/SHIELDS

SEA O8.5 (8.6) +0.1 PAXTON/GIBSON

NYY O9.0 (9.1) +0.1 CASHNER/TANAKA

WAS O7.5 (7.6) +0.1 DEGROM/STRASBURG

SD P8.5 (8.5) 0.0 ANDERSON/LUCCHESI

[huskers22]

Can't believe Spurs gave that up, but then again couldn't believe the Cardinal gave it up, roller coaster night for you, I'm sure.

That really sucked. It was a 7 team paid 35 to 1. I have one going today and already hit yankees - mets - diamondbacks and pushed the nationals total. Need Twins - Sixers ML- and of course Spurs ML

[FUqer]

Wednesday's Totals Projections



(Overall = 39-26) (Overs = 17-10) Unders = 22-16)



COL O7.0 (8.2) +1.2
TOR O9.0 (9.8) +0.8

HOU U8.5 (7.8) -0.7

PIT O8.0 (8.5) +0.5

CLE U7.0 (6.5) -0.5

NYY O8.0 (8.4) +0.4

SF U7.5 (7.2) -0.3

KC O9.0 (9.2) +0.2
OAK O8.5 (8.6) +0.1

LAD U8.0 (7.9) -0.1

NYM P7.0 (7.0) 0.0
WAS P8.0 (8.0) 0.0
STL P9.0 (9.0) 0.0

5-3

(Overall = 44-29) (Overs = 19-12) Unders = 25-17)

[FUqer]

SDQL Plays went 2-2 for + money again. 18-7 for +13.60 on the season. There's not much today, so I'm not going to do any a SDQL Play post for today. There is however one that is note worthy and if the Padres fall to dogs, they are 0-12 their L12 as Dogs, if I find something else, I'll post it.

Road Dogs of at least +150 in Thursday games in April. The Orioles fit this spot today.

45-56 (-0.71, 44.6%)	avg line: 179.1 / -199.4	on / against: +$2,220 / -$3,087	ROI: +22.0% / -15.4%
48-27 (0.87, 64.0%)	avg line: -123.9 / 110.8	on / against: +$1,638 / -$1,988	ROI: +17.4% / -25.6%
53-41-7 (0.55, 56.4%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: +$895 / -$1,780	ROI: +8.2% / -15.8%

_______________________________

I'm not sure how this is going to play out cuz it seems MLB has changed up their schedule for Friday's a bit and some of this trend as to do with it being a get away day, but if more teams are going to have a Friday off, it might matter less.

Edit: I changed my mind, I'm gonna go ahead and do a SDQL post real quick, cuz I found a decent one.

[FUqer]

Wednesday 4/4/18 MLB Results

2-0 for +2.00

WIN - ¤ Athletics -1 -115

WIN - ¤ Cardinals/Brewers Under 9 -107

____________________
Season = 16-5 for +11.35
_____________________

ML = 6-4 for +2.09
(Dogs = 3-3 for +0.12)
(Favs = 3-1 for +1.97)

RL = 3-0 for +3.05

O/U = 7-1 for +6.21
(Overs = 2-0 for +2.00)
(Unders = 5-1 for +4.21)

_____________________
Recent Results

4/04 = 2-0 for +2.00
4/02 = 5-1 for +4.07
4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
______________________

[2daBank]

Great start bro.

[FUqer]

Great start bro.

Thanks, I been pretty cautious so far and left a lot of winners on the table, but I'd rather regret not playing a winner, than regret playing a loser.

I liked the Mariners today, but just not sure about Paxton's health. I read all this stuff about how his main goal was to stay healthy this season and but didn't look good his first start. He went to Minnesota a day early to try to get used to the cold, I just don't know about his health. I was thinking if he regained his form from last year against lefties, he could be trouble for all those Twins lefty hitters. Twins also 1-6 L7 home openers.

[FUqer]

SDQL 4/5

ALL = Yesterday 2-2 (Season: 18-7 for +13.60)

ML = Yesterday 2-1 (Season: 13-5 for +10.15)
RL = Yesterday 0-0 (Season: 3-0 for +3.65)
OU = Yesterday 0-1 (Season: 2-1 for -0.20)


---------------------------------
SU

PLAY: Rangers, Padres, Reds = +13.6% ROI (893-887)
179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79


PLAY: Orioles = +22.0% ROI (45-56)
AD and line >150 and day = Thursday and month = 4



-----------------------------------
OU

__________________________

SDQL PLAYS


ML


Rangers +135
Padres -105
Reds +125
Orioles +220
_________________

[2daBank]

Thanks, I been pretty cautious so far and left a lot of winners on the table, but I'd rather regret not playing a winner, than regret playing a loser.

I liked the Mariners today, but just not sure about Paxton's health. I read all this stuff about how his main goal was to stay healthy this season and but didn't look good his first start. He went to Minnesota a day early to try to get used to the cold, I just don't know about his health. I was thinking if he regained his form from last year against lefties, he could be trouble for all those Twins lefty hitters. Twins also 1-6 L7 home openers.

I played them, I know his history but thought he was healthy coming into this year (I hear bout him a lot it feels like cause he on my brothers fantasy team, lol). I'm looking at him kinda just like gray and Martinez yesterday and taking the cheap price expecting him to bounce back strong. Not to mention twinks have that meatball thrower taking the mound. I couldn't resist. I'm less shy about havinf some losers, I'm piling up the volume!! Lol

[FUqer]

Thursday 4/5/18 MLB Plays

¤ Mariners -112
____________________

Gonna look into the Padres next.