MLB 2018 - SDQL / Tracking / Picks

[FUqer]

I only like the Saturday ones, can you do that if not too much trouble?

I was on over yesterday, lol. Very rare I get a gift like that!

Sure, only takes a few seconds, I gotten pretty quick at it.

81-86-5 (0.64, 48.5%)

avg total: 9.3

over / under: -$1,378 / -$305

ROI: -7.3% / -1.6%

3-7-1 (-0.32, 30.0%)

avg total: 9.1

over / under: -$460 / +$355

ROI: -38.6% / +28.9%

4-8-0 (-0.79, 33.3%)

avg total: 8.2

over / under: -$533 / +$365

ROI: -38.7% / +28.9%

6-6-0 (1.46, 50.0%)

avg total: 8.0

over / under: -$55 / -$65

ROI: -4.2% / -4.9%

Last year = 18-15-1 in Home Day Games

Last Year on Saturdays = Home Day games 3-7-1

[FUqer]

9-2 (1.36, 81.8%)	avg line: -161.2 / 148.9	on / against: +$610 / -$640	ROI: +34.0% / -56.6%
6-5 (0.14, 54.5%)	avg line: 112.2 / -131.4	on / against: +$150 / -$235	ROI: +13.0% / -15.9%
3-7-1 (-0.32, 30.0%)	avg total: 9.1	over / under: -$460 / +$355	ROI: -38.6% / +28.9%

5.09	4.09	8.36	7.36	0.82	1.73	2.73	1.64	5.55	12.45	6.27	0.55	2.27	3.91
3.73	3.18	10.91	7.18	1.00	1.27	2.00	0.82	2.45	14.27	6.82	0.36	3.45	4.00

Apr 15, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	CC Sabathia - L	Cardinals	Carlos Martinez - R	3-2	1	W	-3.0	U	5-5	0-2	3-0	120	8.0	9
Apr 29, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	Michael Pineda - R	Orioles	Ubaldo Jimenez - R	12-4	8	W	7.0	O	10-9	1-1	10-0	-175	9.0	9
May 27, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	CC Sabathia - L	Athletics	Jharel Cotton - R	3-2	1	W	-4.5	U	2-7	0-0	2-0	-150	9.5	9
Jun 24, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	Luis Cessa - R	Rangers	Austin Bibens Dirkx - R	1-8	-7	L	-2.0	U	5-8	0-0	0-7	-150	11.0	9
Jul 08, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Brewers	Brent Suter - L	5-3	2	W	-1.5	U	6-6	1-2	2-3	-200	9.5	9
Jul 29, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	Caleb Smith - L	Rays	Blake Snell - L	5-4	1	W	0.0	P	9-8	2-0	1-1	-158	9.0	9
Aug 12, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Red Sox	Drew Pomeranz - L	5-10	-5	L	6.5	O	9-12	2-2	2-7	-160	8.5	9
Aug 26, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	Sonny Gray - R	Mariners	Yovani Gallardo - R	6-3	3	W	-0.5	U	8-6	1-0	5-0	-205	9.5	9
Sep 02, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	Masahiro Tanaka - R	Red Sox	Drew Pomeranz - L	5-1	4	W	-2.0	U	10-6	0-1	4-0	-155	8.0	9
Sep 16, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	Jordan Montgomery - L	Orioles	Jeremy Hellickson - R	9-3	6	W	2.0	O	10-6	1-0	9-0	-185	10.0	9
Sep 30, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	CC Sabathia - L	Blue Jays	Marcus Stroman - R	2-1	1	W	-5.5	U	7-6	0-0	2-0	-155	8.5	9

Showing 1 to 11 of 11 entries

[2daBank]

Wow still bad, Obviously I cap them and don't bet blind so guess what going on im just picking them out decent cause I sure do have the perception that been a killer bet!! I'm actually shocked, lol. Thanks buddy.

Man I don't like cards at all. Just not sure what attractive about 5 innings of wacha then bunch of dumb matheny desicions vs grenkie at that price? To me it zona or nothing once again.

[FUqer]

Wow still bad, Obviously I cap them and don't bet blind so guess what going on im just picking them out decent cause I sure do have the perception that been a killer bet!! I'm actually shocked, lol. Thanks buddy.

Man I don't like cards at all. Just not sure what attractive about 5 innings of wacha then bunch of dumb matheny desicions vs grenkie at that price? To me it zona or nothing once again.

Marked Zona and Toronto as leans last night, woke up and did SDQL and Cards and Rangers were a SDQL Play. Seen the Cards were gonna be contrarian so I looked into it more and what I found was pretty even overall, Greinke a lil better than Wacha, but Home spot after losing Home Opener was favorable for the Cardinals. One of the first spots I started playing in baseball was the Cardinals in the 2nd game of a series and they have always been good to me since, so I thought it was worth the risk, especially since it's pretty contrarian and I really like that SDQL trend behind it. I think they won behind Wacha 1-0 vs Ray last year, so I'm hoping it's a similar game.

[FUqer]

Wow still bad, Obviously I cap them and don't bet blind so guess what going on im just picking them out decent cause I sure do have the perception that been a killer bet!! I'm actually shocked, lol. Thanks buddy.

Man I don't like cards at all. Just not sure what attractive about 5 innings of wacha then bunch of dumb matheny desicions vs grenkie at that price? To me it zona or nothing once again.

Yanks could get 9 off Tillman easy, they are about due for a big game.

[2daBank]

Yanks could get 9 off Tillman easy, they are about due for a big game.

Plus with both pens being overworked seems like lot of potential for few big innings, don't think yanks pen nearly the same either so curious how they hold up after being worked quite a bit last few.

[FUqer]

Wow still bad, Obviously I cap them and don't bet blind so guess what going on im just picking them out decent cause I sure do have the perception that been a killer bet!! I'm actually shocked, lol. Thanks buddy.

Man I don't like cards at all. Just not sure what attractive about 5 innings of wacha then bunch of dumb matheny desicions vs grenkie at that price? To me it zona or nothing once again.

Bullpen usages look really good for you, lol. 17+ for Orioles and 18+ for Yankees. If Tillman gets knocked out early those sidearm relievers gonna get knocked too.

[FUqer]

Plus with both pens being overworked seems like lot of potential for few big innings, don't think yanks pen nearly the same either so curious how they hold up after being worked quite a bit last few.

Was typing the same thing.

[2daBank]

Marked Zona and Toronto as leans last night, woke up and did SDQL and Cards and Rangers were a SDQL Play. Seen the Cards were gonna be contrarian so I looked into it more and what I found was pretty even overall, Greinke a lil better than Wacha, but Home spot after losing Home Opener was favorable for the Cardinals. One of the first spots I started playing in baseball was the Cardinals in the 2nd game of a series and they have always been good to me since, so I thought it was worth the risk, especially since it's pretty contrarian and I really like that SDQL trend behind it. I think they won behind Wacha 1-0 vs Ray last year, so I'm hoping it's a similar game.

Makes sense, I'm pretty hesitant to actually pull trigger after passing on gm 1 like a idiot. Not bad angle w cards cause if they do lose game 2 you can always come back in gm 3, doubt they get swept at home much. Wacha problem just he can't go the 3rd time thru very often, that just leaves too much matheny potential stupidity for my liking until this moron gets the pen ironed out.

[2daBank]

Was typing the same thing.

Great minds and all I honestly thought bout selling it up to 10, either yanks will bust out or they won't way im looking at it so number almost irrelevant.

[InRange07]

Hard to play cards Defensively, carpenter is a huge liability at third now, treble range and below avg arm.

[FUqer]

Saturday 4/7/18 MLB Plays


¤ Cardinals -105

¤ D-Backs/Cardinals Under 7 +113

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¤ Rays/Red Sox Under 8.5 +111

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I was on the fence with this one, I really like Faria, he pitched in a 2-1 game vs the Red Sox in his first start and I really like the SDQL trend for the Under in this game. I'm not loving the wind factor at all today, but if both pitchers can keep it on the ground, it won't matter. The thing that put me over the top was looking up some similar stuff for the Red Sox in Home day games using some filters. I found that Unders were more prevalent overall last year in that spot and on Saturday's, but in Day home games in 2016 and 2015 there were more Overs. But the thing that stood out was the difference between overall Home day games and Home Saturday day games. In 2015 The Red Sox were 18-10 Over in Home day games, but in Home Saturday day games, they were just 3-6-1. So I'm gonna go ahead and risk it at plus money based on multiple factors.

[2daBank]

Wind was blowing out hard the 1st game too and didn't score shit, I think that prob be a bigger factor when that doesn't come w a freaking wind chill!!

My biggest concern is I don't think Sox bats are too far off and them already seeing Faria once this season I think a advantage to the hitters (he also has yet to pitch at Fenway, his strong splits vs all came in trop where offense goes to die). That and I never trust porcello, that wind could def hurt his fly ball ass, I did put small play on rays.

[FUqer]

Shoulda ran far away from the fence in that one, oh well better early than late, now I don't have to stress about it much.

[FUqer]

¤ Cubs -1 -114

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Gonna take advantage of a decent price on Darvish and the Cubs today. Giants and Athletics are possible plays for later.

[FUqer]

Late line movement against the Cubs is not a good sign.

[FUqer]

¤ Parlay (Astros -275)(OPEN)

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I don't see the Astros losing again to the Padres and I expect Cole to have a good showing for his home debut in his new park. I'm leaving one spot open for now and I'll fill it with another chalk favorite another day to get even or plus money.

[FUqer]

¤ Athletics/Angels Under 8.5 +112

[FUqer]

Kattar & Jedrzejczyk in UFC tonight.

[FUqer]

rofl at the ending in the Astros game, I dunno if that was ruled a hit or a error and who the hell do you charge the error too, there were three Padres there pointing up at the ball and the only guy who didn't see it comes running in hard and they think he has it and he just run right by it and it drops over his head about 10 ft from home plate and the guy on 2nd come around and scores on a 2 out full count, wow.

[2daBank]

Hell of a way to win a -290 bet, never in doubt!! Lol

[FUqer]

That one and the Cubs game was some funny shit to watch unless you had the Brewers or Padres, ouch!. Padres had a lot of chances to win that game. Cubs loaded bases without the ball leaving the infield cuz of 2 errors.

[2daBank]

The brewers mighta been tough loss just cause circumstance but you really shouldn't expect to win a game where team has 1 more hit than error; lol.

[FUqer]

wow, Clutch with the 3 run walk off and a 6-7 night.

[FUqer]

Saturday 4/7/18 MLB Results

2-3 for -1.00

WIN - ¤ Cardinals -105
WIN - ¤ Cubs -1 -114

LOSS - ¤ Rays/Red Sox Under 8.5 +111
LOSS - ¤ D-Backs/Cardinals Under 7 +113
LOSS - ¤ Athletics/Angels Under 8.5 +112

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Season = 21-12 for +9.35
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ML = 8-6 for +2.02
(Dogs = 4-3 for +1.20)
(Favs = 4-3 for +0.82)

RL = 4-2 for +2.05

O/U = 9-4 for +5.28
(Overs = 2-0 for +2.00)
(Unders = 7-4 for +3.28)

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Recent Results

4/07 = 2-3 for -1.00
4/06 = 0-2 for -2.00
4/05 = 3-2 for +1.00
4/04 = 2-0 for +2.00
4/02 = 5-1 for +4.07
4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
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Whiffed on totals tonight, still got an open parlay to be continued though.

[FUqer]

SDQL 4/8

ALL = Yesterday 4-3 for +0.95 (Season: 24-17 for +8.95)

ML = Yesterday 4-1 for +2.95 (Season: 19-13 for +7.50)
RL = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 3-0 for +3.65)
OU = Yesterday 0-2 for -2.00 (Season: 2-4 for -2.20)


---------------------------------
SU



PLAY: Athletics: +17.1% ROI (281-273)
AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2



PLAY: D-Backs, Brewers, Braves: +13.5% ROI (894-890)
179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79



PLAY: Cardinals: +11.6% ROI (1047-631)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



-----------------------------------

OU



UNDER: Giants are 0-16 OU as a home dog after they allowed 5-plus walks and it is not a series opener.
team = Giants and SG > 1 and HD and 5 <= po:walks and date >= 20100427

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SDQL PLAYS



ML


Athletics +150
Brewers +105
Braves +125


OU


Dodgers/Giants Under 8 -110
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Sunday's Totals Projections



(Overall = 57-46) (Overs = 28-24) (Unders = 29-22)

Yesterday = 4-10


LAD U8.0 (6.1) -1.9

KC O7.5 (8.3) +0.8

HOU U8.0 (7.2) -0.8

LAA U9.0 (8.2) -0.8

ATL O11.5 (12.2) +0.7

DET O8.5 (9.2) +0.7

TEX O9.0 (9.6) +0.6

WAS O8.0 (8.6) +0.6

NYY O9.0 (9.5) +0.5

PIT O7.5 (7.8) +0.3

CHC O8.5 (8.7) +0.2

STL O7.5 (7.7) +0.2

PHI U8.0 (7.9) -0.1

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Too many Over projections for my liking again. It tells me the books are shading the Unders and my projections might have another day like yesterday. It's pretty telling how I usually only get maybe 3 or 4 Over projections on average, but the last couple of days, have been filled with them. Might want to use extra caution until the weather gets right, it seems the books have adjusted to the cold.

[2daBank]

I didn't go thru game by game and look at where you had the higher projections but I would assume some of that under shading by books is weather related, lot of cold windy games today.

[2daBank]

Well shit, I should have read your complete post before typing, see you mentioned the weather! Lol. Thought I read all must have tailed off at end of post in name of im behind trying to hurry up!! Lol

Did you not have a projection for Boston? Or did I just miss it?

[FUqer]

I didn't go thru game by game and look at where you had the higher projections but I would assume some of that under shading by books is weather related, lot of cold windy games today.

Definitely, and prolly cuz some teams also had Friday off to rest up their bullpens, those extra days off are gonna change things a bit.

[FUqer]

Well shit, I should have read your complete post before typing, see you mentioned the weather! Lol. Thought I read all must have tailed off at end of post in name of im behind trying to hurry up!! Lol

Did you not have a projection for Boston? Or did I just miss it?

I just did it a few minutes ago after I finally saw who the TB pitcher was, surprise another Over, and the wind is coming in hard there.

BOS O8.5 (9.1) +0.6

[2daBank]

I just did it a few minutes ago after I finally saw who the TB pitcher was, surprise another Over, and the wind is coming in hard there.

BOS O8.5 (9.1) +0.6

Yea I was looking at under or nothing but I didn't come up with a great number minus the weather either. Def understand why you high there. Wish there was more to like in the pitching matchup cause would like to be on under in those conditions but just passing I think.

[2daBank]

Is there a sdql you can run for when the roof open in Houston? My perception is it plays like a total band box but as we have seen my perception is often not reality!! Lol

[FUqer]

By subtracting the record for indoors minus overall, it should tell me the record for when it's open.

OU: 38-53-3 (0.02, 41.8%)
OU: 31-46-1 (0.04, 40.3%)

Over is 7-7-2 Last Season



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OU: 104-143-11 (-0.10, 42.1%)

OU: 88-123-6 (-0.09, 41.7%)

Over is 16-20-5 Since 2015

[FUqer]

By subtracting the record for indoors minus overall, it should tell me the record for when it's open.

OU: 38-53-3 (0.02, 41.8%)
OU: 31-46-1 (0.04, 40.3%)

Over is 7-7-2 Last Season


--------------------------------------
OU: 104-143-11 (-0.10, 42.1%)

OU: 88-123-6 (-0.09, 41.7%)

Over is 16-20-5 Since 2015

I actually have them below average in my park factor ratings I think a lot because of their history of Unders there and not so much the park dynamics, so I get a lot of Under projections for them at Home.

[2daBank]

Lol. Once again my perception and reality not the same! I guess on bright side like yanks on Saturday I kinda take that as I'm doing good capping cause have done well with both! Lol

This one tho, there really nothing to like bout over at all, I thought the roof open could be problem for under but appears not! Thanks for taking the time brother, really appreciate it!!