-
Comment -
Monday Results 7/17
W - »-Cardinals +104
W - »-Tigers +114
L - »-Red Sox -103
L - »-Phillies/Marlins Under 9 -108
L - »-Mariners/Astros Under 9 +102
P - »-Cardinals/MetsUnder 9 -113
W - »-Cubs/Braves Under 9 -101
___________________________
Yesterday = 3-3-1 = +0.07
___________________________
Bankroll = 1793 / 3000
___________________________Comment -
Tuesday Plays 7/18
»-D-Backs RL +122 (60.2%)
»-Cardinals -113 (54.5%)
»-Tigers +103 (57.0%)
»-Astros RL +100 (63.9%)
»-Rays/Athletics Over 9 +102 (9.9)
»-Tigers/Royals Over 10.5 -110 (10.8)
___________________________
Taking the D-Backs and Robbie Ray on the Road as long as they don't face a lefty on the Road, it's all good. The D-Backs should be motivated after losing the series vs the Braves and in the thick of the wild card chase. I considered the Under but both teams are off of rest so I'll prolly pass on that. Showing some decent value, and ignoring the fact the public will be on them.
Taking the Cardinals for the 3rd str8 day, I like the pitching match-up more than anything, even though Wacha can give up some runs on the Road, I'm showing value on the Under 9 +102 again but I don't like it that much with these pitchers.
Taking the Tigers again vs a lefty who they've been hitting good, the Royals have been hitting better vs lefties as of late also but the Tigers still have a big advantage, FF might of been the better play. I'm taking the Over even though I only have them slightly going over the total because I do expect some runs to be put up on both sides in this one. And I also don't get many Over projections and they do pretty good when I get them, this was one of 3 for tomorrow and I only had one yesterday for the Rockies game which hit easily.
+0.9 is a pretty high difference for an over by my model and the Athletics have trended heavily to Overs at Home vs lefties this season, I think it's 9-3 SU and OU at Home vs lefties. They've faced better lefties than Snell, so they should be able to get him for some runs and the Rays are always a threat to knock one out and put up some runs. The series history looked pretty good on the Over as well, so I pulled the trigger.
________________________________________ ____
The Cubs at that price is very tempting, the line drop sort of scared me, but I think Newcomb will get lit up again like his last two starts and the Braves should score some of Lackey also, so the over doesn't seem too bad of an option.
The Phillies/Marlins Under is another one I kind of like but the price isn't good right now at -113, it should go down later if I want to play it. The combined ERA of the pitchers is 13.1, for awhile I was fading anything that was 2 runs over or under the total, with the idea that people look at the ERA's first and see such a high or low number and jump all over it. Those have been some of those wtf plays I have made over the last month, but they have done pretty decent. Two more like that today are the Astros and Reds because the combined ERA's are 6.9 and 7.5, making them Over plays, but I don't think the Under in those games are really going to be liked by the public much, so not contrarian.
I like the Pirates but the price is too high and I like the Phillies just a little.Comment -
SDQL 7/18
ALL = Yesterday 1-4 (Total 18-25)
SU = Yesterday 1-2 (Total 11-7)
OU = Yesterday 0-2 (Total 7-18)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL = (Total 441-346)
SU = (Total 223-171)
OU = (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Astros are 23-0 SU as a favorite of more than 180 after they hit multiple home runs and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Astros and line<-180 and p:HR > 1 and AASB and date >= 20040901
FADE: The Mariners (49-135 -35.7% ROI)
team=Mariners and po:hits>=12 and AD
PLAY: The Tigers (538-378 +9.8% ROI)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)
FADE: The Royals (429-563 -12.4% ROI)
p:margin=-8
FADE: The Giants are 0-15 SU as a dog off a home game in which they did not draw a walk and it is not a series opener.
team = Giants and SG > 1 and D and p:H and p:walks = 0 and date >= 20050528
PLAY: The Orioles (47-23 +23.6% ROI)
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
PLAY: The Orioles are 22-3 SU since May 22, 2015 after a game as a home favorite in which they allowed 5+ walks.
team = Orioles and p:HF and 5 <= po:walks and date >= 20150522
------------
OU
UNDER: The Pirates are 0-17 OU off a home game after a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is after the All-Star break
team = Pirates and p:hits >= 3 * p:runs and p:HW and AASB and date >= 20040909
UNDER: Rangers/Orioles (43-24-3 +22.4% ROI)
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
OVER: Both teams off rest this season 63-37-7 OU +19.1% ROI.
(Dodgers/White Sox)
H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017
OVER: The Braves are 20-5 OU off a loss as a dog in which they held the lead.
team = Braves and p
and p:BL > 0 and p:L and date >= 20160803
UNDER: The Angels are 1-15-2 OU since Jun 22, 2016 vs a team that has won at least their last four games.
team=Angels and o:streak>=4 and date>=20160622
________________
SU
Astros
Tigers
Indians
Orioles
OU
Brewers/Pirates Under
Rangers/Orioles Under
Dodgers/White Sox Over
Cubs/Braves Over
Nationals/Angels Under
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
Early Wednesday Projections
ARI@ (-160 61.6%) - (9.0)
CLE@ (-233 70.0%) - (7.7)
@BOS (-136 57.6%) - (9.2)
WAS@ (-150 60.0%) - (8.8)
@MIA (-142 58.7%) - (8.6)
SEA@ (+116 46.3%) - (6.9)
@PIT (-113 53.0%) - (8.3)
@NYM (-110 52.4%) - (7.1)
@COL (-149 59.9%) - (12.6)
@MIN (+100 50.0%) - (8.6)
DET@ (-113 53.0%) - (9.5)
CHC@ (-105 51.1%) - (8.8)
LAD@ (-172 63.3%) - (8.2)
@OAK (+100 50.0%) - (8.4)
@BAL (-102 50.6%) - (9.2)Comment -
it appears everyone had a tough dayyesterday, myself included with a loss of about 6 units. let's get it back today, my friendSDQL 7/18
ALL = Yesterday 1-4 (Total 18-25)
SU = Yesterday 1-2 (Total 11-7)
OU = Yesterday 0-2 (Total 7-18)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL = (Total 441-346)
SU = (Total 223-171)
OU = (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Astros are 23-0 SU as a favorite of more than 180 after they hit multiple home runs and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Astros and line<-180 and p:HR > 1 and AASB and date >= 20040901
FADE: The Mariners (49-135 -35.7% ROI)
team=Mariners and po:hits>=12 and AD
PLAY: The Tigers (538-378 +9.8% ROI)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)
FADE: The Royals (429-563 -12.4% ROI)
p:margin=-8
FADE: The Giants are 0-15 SU as a dog off a home game in which they did not draw a walk and it is not a series opener.
team = Giants and SG > 1 and D and p:H and p:walks = 0 and date >= 20050528
PLAY: The Orioles (47-23 +23.6% ROI)
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
PLAY: The Orioles are 22-3 SU since May 22, 2015 after a game as a home favorite in which they allowed 5+ walks.
team = Orioles and p:HF and 5 <= po:walks and date >= 20150522
------------
OU
UNDER: The Pirates are 0-17 OU off a home game after a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is after the All-Star break
team = Pirates and p:hits >= 3 * p:runs and p:HW and AASB and date >= 20040909
UNDER: Rangers/Orioles (43-24-3 +22.4% ROI)
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
OVER: Both teams off rest this season 63-37-7 OU +19.1% ROI.
(Dodgers/White Sox)
H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017
OVER: The Braves are 20-5 OU off a loss as a dog in which they held the lead.
team = Braves and p and p:BL > 0 and p:L and date >= 20160803
UNDER: The Angels are 1-15-2 OU since Jun 22, 2016 vs a team that has won at least their last four games.
team=Angels and o:streak>=4 and date>=20160622
________________
SU
Astros
Tigers
Indians
Orioles
OU
Brewers/Pirates Under
Rangers/Orioles Under
Dodgers/White Sox Over
Cubs/Braves Over
Nationals/Angels Under
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
$1.43 to win a unit
Pirates -157
Phillies +122
Cubs -131
Orioles -122
Indians -140
Blue Jays -127
$1.60 to win a unit
Phillies/Marlins Under 9.5 -154
Rangers/Orioles Under 10.5 -113
Cubs/Braves Over 9.5 -127
Cardinals/Mets Under 9.5 -127
Brewers/Pirates Under 9.5 -113
Dodgers/White Sox Over 8.5 -139Comment -
Love that over in atl.. don't disagree w any really..
hate that it second day in a row I've missed the good number on the Jays. Think they right side again but have a hard time trusting them enough to lay the current number. Actually like t-bone's idea of playing the 1st 5 rl with them.. gl tonight buddyComment -
yea, I should of played the Over in Atlanta this morning, still prolly goes over though. Jays scare me vs lefties but I seen Lock is on them so I threw them in a parlay. The only total left for me to play was the Cardinals Under and I don't think I want to go there today.
I do like you're plays today also, the Padres are/was showing good value, Nats and Angels should score a lot. GL 2u2!Comment -
Nats offense just sick, not many pitchers shutting that team down ( to think they lost Adam eaton early in year, imagine him leading off in that lineup!) and with them throwing gas can Jackson out there im willing to play it even tho that a really high number at that park.. gonna be interesting to see if nats recent move will help solidify their pen a little bit? Not sure if what they got was enough but certainly can't hurt!
I know jays numbers vs lefties not good this season but when you look at their lineup you would think they be tough on lhp.Comment -
Pretty close on most of my projections now that the lines have came out. I was exact on the lines of 3 games, Red Sox, Twins, Dodgers, and off by 5 or less on a couple and the totals look right on also, so I know my model is pretty good after only creating it not long ago and I'm starting to trust it more. I still set my games up my pitching adv. and not value though, sometimes value is just the books taking the other side for some unknown reason. I like the changes I've made to it at the All Star Break. I may still need to do some research on park factors, I keep getting low totals for the Astros, Orioles, Mets games. The biggest thing is that it takes me half the time to do it now.Comment -
Guerra seems like one of those guys whose starts go a lot better than his sabermetrics would indicate. I liked him before I got into metrics and then they scared me off him. I may have to re-examine his ratings.Comment -
I made a mistake this morning when I said I like the Under in the Reds game but that both teams were off rest and the Over has been great this year in that spot, but I forgot the Reds played an early game yesterday. The only game with both teams off rest is the Dodgers/White Sox and how often do you see the total at 9 when Kershaw is pitching? The Dodgers will prolly smash Gonzales.Comment -
I really straddle the fence on this topic. I use a great deal of advanced stats in my capping but at the same time some of the best value you can find is on guys the saber crowd hates. Ultimately I strongly disagree w their "luck" stance on guys who can pitch. Bottom line imo there is a art to pitching that can't always be quantified and saber guys tend to think everything black and white while I tend to live in the gray. Guys can be successful pitchers without striking everyone out, guys who make pitches when they have runners on base isn't luck imo.
They tend to undervalue anyone who doesn't fit it their nice little box but there far too many examples of guys outperforming their metrics year after year (and underperforming them for that matter), a guy can do this for 5 years and in the 6th when he starts to struggle you hear these tools act like oh yea there the regression! lol, give me a break!!Comment -
Ultimately what I've come to realize is advanced metrics are a great tool like many others but at the end of the day there is no end all be all to quantifying a sport played by men.Comment -
Tuesday Results 7/18
W - »-D-Backs RL +122
W - »-Cardinals -113
W - »-Tigers +103
W - »-Astros RL +100
L - »-Rays/Athletics Over 9 +102
W - »-Tigers/Royals Over 10.5 -110
___________________________
Yesterday = 5-1 = +4.25
___________________________
Bankroll = 2005 / 3000
___________________________
Parlay is still alive, but the Indians are in trouble in the bottom if the 9th, I'm hoping the Indians can take care of business so I can think about hedging with the Red Sox.
I like the D-Backs and Rays tomorrow.
Rangers/Orioles Under
Cubs/Braves Under
Padres/Rockies OverComment -
Wednesday Plays 7/19
»-D-Backs RL -103
»-Cubs/Braves Under 9.5 -108
___________________________
On the fence with the Rays, Braves, Rangers, White Sox, and Yankees/Twins Under and Cardinals/Mets Under.Comment -
Early Thursday Projections
@SF (-148 59.7%) (6.9)
TEX@ (-115 53.5%) (8.6)
@LAD (-149 59.8%) (7.7)
DET@ (-102 50.6%) (9.5)
NYY@ (-115 53.4%) (7.7)
ARI@ (-129 56.4%) (9.1)
@BOS (-145 58.2%) (9.8)
STL@ (-106 51.4%) (8.2)
@PIT (-108 51.9%) (7.9)
__________________________
I like the Tigers and Rangers for Thursday.Comment -
Help with this query
One theory i have that I'm looking into further is what's called the work-backwards OVER theory. Essentially here what we are doing is ignoring starting pitchers all together in an MLB game and only looking from July 1st onwards betting OVER on the total when both teams BULLPENs are over 4.5 ERA.*Comment -
SDQL 7/19
ALL = Yesterday 5-4 (Total 23-29)
SU = Yesterday 3-1 (Total 14-8)
OU = Yesterday 2-3 (Total 9-21)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Orioles (49-23 (+25.2% ROI)
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
PLAY: The Rangers (539-378 +9.8% ROI)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)
FADE: The Royals (103-147 -20.6% ROI)
-140<=line<=120 and p:margin<=-4 and pp:margin<=-4 and op:runs>=8 and H and SG<4 and total<11
PLAY: The White Sox (164-212 +9.6% ROI)
175 >= line >= 135 and t:conference = AL and tA(runs) <= 4.5 and p:L and p:margin >= -2 and 9 * oS(o:earned runs - starter earned runs) / oS(9 - starter innings pitched) <= 3.75 and SG>1 and day!=Saturday and 2006<=season
FADE: The Dodgers (404-346 -8.3% ROI)
p:margin = 1 and pp:margin = 1 and F
------------
OU
UNDER: Rangers/Orioles (43-26-3 +19.0% ROI)
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
________________
SU
Tigers
White Sox
OU
Rangers/Orioles Under
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
PARLAY: $1.79 to win 1 unit
Pirates -157
Mets -168
D-Backs -154
Royals -103
Nationals/Angels Over 8.5 -127
Blue Jays/Red Sox Under 9.5 -110Comment -
Thursday Plays 7/20
»-Tigers -110 (2 units)
»-Rangers -112 (2 units)
»-Tigers/Royals Over 9 +102
__________________________Comment -
Starting to really like tomorrow's small card.
LEANS
D-Backs@ -123
Braves@ +196
@Red Sox -118
Cardinals@ -105
Brewers@ +110
Rangers/Orioles Under 10 -113
D-Backs/Reds Under 10 -118
Braves/Dodgers Under 8 +100
Brewers/Pirates Under 8 +100
Padres/Giants Under 7 -108
Yankees/Mariners Over 8 -118
Blue Jays/Red Sox Over 10 -118Comment
