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Comment -
Almost half the card is Home Dogs but only two were even slightly on my radar, the Padres and White Sox.
Home Dogs
Marlins +112 vs Dodgers
Braves +105 vs D-Backs
Padres +100 vs Giants
Angels +104 vs Rays
Athletics +128 vs Indians
Reds +125 vs Nationals
White Sox +154 vs Mariners
Home Dogs didn't do too bad over the first half.
Here's how those teams have done.185-221 (-1.04, 45.6%) avg line: 122.7 / -133.2 on / against: -$350 / -$1,552 ROI: -0.9% / -2.9%
Marlins - (8-10 SU -4.8% ROI)
Braves - (7-12 SU -16.8% ROI)
Padres - (11-16 SU -4.8% ROI)
Angels - (6-10 SU -19.2% ROI)
Athletics - (12-11 SU +13.5% ROI)
Reds - (13-11 SU +15.1% ROI)
White Sox - (15-14 SU +14.9% ROI)Comment -
Saturday's Projections
LAD@ (-156 61.0%) (7.1)
WAS@ (-165 62.3%) (8.6)
CLE@ (-184 64.8%) (7.8)
SF@ (-157 61.1%) (8.0)
SEA@ (-110 52.4%) (8.4)
@DET (-134 57.2%) (8.9)
CHC@ (-156 61.0%) (8.5)
MIN@ (+156 39.0%) (8.0)
TEX@ (+107 48.2%) (8.9)
PHI@ (+138 42.0%) (9.7)
ARI@ (-114 53.3%) (8.7)
STL@ (-119 54.4%) (9.1)
COL@ (+102 49.6%) (8.6)
TB@ (-139 58.2%) (9.1)Comment -
Yesterday = 4-6-1 = -2.19
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Bankroll = 1967 / 3000
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Not the results I was hoping for, that Dodgers Under loss was a tough one to swallow, with 2 outs and nobody on in the top of the 9th and trailing by one, the Dodgers of course get a couple runners on and then blast a 3 run homer, FML, that was my dog of the day play too. The Cardinals and D-Backs were close games that could of went either way but didn't end my way. The important thing for me is that I finally won an extra inning game after going 0-29 this season, that calls for a celebration in itself.
Comment -
SDQL 7/15
ALL = Yesterday 8-7 (Total 8-7)
SU = Yesterday 5-1 (Total 5-1)
OU = Yesterday 3-6 (Total 3-6)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL = (Total 441-346)
SU = (Total 223-171)
OU = (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Mariners are 17-0 SU as a road favorite by more than 130 off a game as a favorite when their opponents starter has an ERA of higher than four on the season.
team = Mariners and A and line<-130 and p:F and o:STDSERA>4 and season >= 2011
FADE: The Dodgers (62-98 -31.1% ROI)
s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5
PLAY: The Brewers & Braves (998-600 +11.6% ROI)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)
FADE: The Royals are 0-11 SU their L11 vs the Rangers
team=Royals and o:team=Rangers and date>=20160723
------------
OU
UNDER: Twins/Astros (164-82-7 +26.5% ROI)
STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3
UNDER: The Indians are 1-20 OU on the road after a game as a road favorite in which they did not hit a home run since Apr 25, 2016.
team=Indians and A and p:AF and p:HR=0 and date>=20160425
UNDER: The Rays are 1-14 OU on the road after a game as a road dog in which they played extra innings.
team = Rays and A and p:ADX and date >= 20100702
OVER: The Cardinals are 17-3 OU as a dog off a game as a dog in which they scored in fewer innings than their opponent.
team = Cardinals and D and p
and p:SII < po:SII and date >= 20150711
OVER: The Rangers are 15-2-3 O/U since Sep 08, 2015 when Cole Hamels starts as a favorite when they won in his last start after they scored first.
team=Rangers and starter=Cole Hamels and s:W and s:SF>0 and date>=20150908
OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 152-111-11 OU +10.4% ROI this season.
(Rays, Phillies, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers)
A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017
OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (158-117-18 +9.3% ROI)
(Marlins, Giants))
date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O
________________
SU
Mariners
Marlins
Brewers
Rangers
Braves
OU
Twins/Astros Under
Indians/Athletics Under
Cardinals/Pirates Over
Rangers/Royals Over
Phillies/Brewers Over
Yankees/Red Sox Over
Dodgers/Marlins Over
Giants/Padres Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
Saturday Plays 7/15
»-Tigers -1 -102
»-Phillies/Brewers Over 9 +110
»-Twins/Astros Under 9 +105
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I know it seems nuts to take an Under with the Astros, but at least I have a good SDQL trend on my side this time.
The other total might seem just as nuts with the way those two pitchers have been going.
I like the Tigers too much, they will be my one public play for the day.
I like the Reds and Phillies but have had no luck with big dogs lately, if the Phillies trigger a system line play then I may play it if I'm around.
The only other play I'm waiting on is the Cardinals/Pirates total to drop to playable at Over 8 or at least plus money at 8.5. I may run a some parlays again just for some more action since I'm trying to practice more discipline.
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Watching the lines overnight I noticed the Brewers had some money come on them not long after it opened and rose the price almost 20 cents.
The Royals were -105 in minute and then -128 the next, so some money came in on them, despite them losing 11 str8 to the Rangers.
A few totals caught my eye as possible suspect, Rays Over, Cubs Over and Yankees Under.Comment -
Saturday Results 7/15
W - »-Tigers -1 -102
L - »-Phillies +157
L - »-Reds +166
L - »-Phillies/Brewers Over 9 +110
W - »-Twins/Astros Under 9 +105
L - »-Cardinals/Pirates Over 8 -113
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Yesterday = 2-4 = -2.05
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Bankroll = 1865 / 3000
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I should've stuck with my original 3 plays, but just had to add 3 losers. I'm going to have to consider different amounts on plays if I can't get my discipline sorted. Makes no sense to pick out 3 good plays only to ruin them by adding three more plays I didn't like as much with the same amount on them.Comment -
SDQL 7/16
ALL = Yesterday 6-6-1 (Total 14-13)
SU = Yesterday 4-1 (Total 9-2)
OU = Yesterday 2-5-1 (Total 5-11)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL = (Total 441-346)
SU = (Total 223-171)
OU = (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
FADE: The Royals are 0-12 SU their L11 vs the Rangers
team=Royals and o:team=Rangers and date>=20160723
------------
OU
OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 152-115-11 OU +10.4% ROI this season.
(Dodgers, Cardinals, Mariners, Rangers, Rays)
A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017
OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (159-118-18 +9.3% ROI)
(Giants)
date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O
________________
SU
Rangers
Red Sox GM #1
Tigers
Orioles
OU
Dodgers/Marlins Over
Cardinals/Pirates Over
Mariners/White Sox Over
Rangers/Royals Over
Rays/Angels Over
Giants/Padres Over
Indians/Athletics Under
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
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NOTE: The database has not updated yet and I don't know if I'll be able to get back to it later today. These two Over trends I've been using for awhile now, may have about ran it's course this season, I'm gonna keep an eye on them over the next couple of days.Comment -
Sunday Plays 7/16
»-Rangers -123
»-Rangers RL +137
»-Cardinals -129
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I have the Rangers at -143 and the Cardinals at -140. Kennedy hasn't ever defeated the Rangers and Darvish has done well vs the Royals. The Rangers have won 12 str8 vs the Royals. The Rangers could be about to go on one of their winning streaks. The Cardinals have a big edge on the mound with Martinez and I like the Cardinals left side batters at PNC.
Two total plays I'm on the fence about are the Braves Under and the Padres Over.
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For the other games...
Nationals -117 (9.6)
Dodgers -124 (7.1) ( If Volquez starts)
Mets -116 (8.2)
D-Backs +118 (8.1)
Padres -103 (8.2)
Tigers -126 (9.3)
White Sox -104 (9.0)
Rays -201 (8.1)
Indians -119 (7.5)
Cubs -132 (8.5)Comment -
Rangers straight own kc, I played them the 1st 2 (loving hamels prices since his return!), want to play them here but I honestly feel like I never get Yu gms right, lol. I played under and really lean your way on side.Comment -
yea might not want to play them, seeing how I'm on them and I can't seem to get right. I don't mind, I'm gaining a lot of experience and making up for a lot of missed time in baseball. I was into it back when the Pirates had the Killer Bees and then ignored all through 2k, but I think I'm getting to know the players and how to bet MLB better.
I get a kinda high total for that Rangers game at 8.9, due to Kennedy, but the Under in that series has been almost as good as the Rangers and Unders have been hitting lately and it is Sunday. I thought about checking out the TT Over for the Rangers.
The sweep angle doesn't really worry me in that game, Road teams are the ones who have been having success avoiding the sweep this season. Phillies, D-Backs, and Indians are in that position today, but I haven't even had a chance to run the numbers for the Phillies and Twins games yet.
What do you think bout your Cardinals vs my Pirates today?Comment -
Yea I wouldn't worry much about the sweep seeing how Texas has been sweeping kc for some time it feels like!
Think Rockies trying to avoid a road sweep as well. Close to playing them although I fear teams struggling out of the break as those 1st 2 games seems muts only team interested in playing ball!
I'm all about cards today, the guys they have brought up the last month or so have really infused life into the offense. I don't know much bout pit pitcher but appears to me he doesn't have much in the way of breaking pitches, cards outta be able to sit fastball hit fastball. Only concern cards pen, not huge just enough to keep me off rl.Comment -
ahh, just seen you played the Cardinals and that Braves Under, I might pull the trigger on that Under after all and you're on the opposite of the Padres Over. Good to know.Comment -
I couldn't fault a over in sd at 7.5. I don't exactly love under 8 (which I did play but having few second thoughts). I like both starters chances at success but Cahill rarely goes deep and easy to see shark pitch count up striking out 10+. Really low total for some pretty bad pens. Guess fair to say I really liked the idea when I jumped but now I much prefer 1st 5 under to game.Comment -
Almost certain I'll be on Rockies just kinda waiting to see what happens w line, feels like 1 that may get driven up. Like them vs lefties and been pretty impressed with Hoffman this year, think he will give them a better chance than last 2 starters have.
Both those starters in atl are also great at keeping the ball on the ground as well which big in that park.Comment -
I had to rerun some numbers for pitching changes and I did the 2 games I didn't get too earlier.
Brewers -150 (10)
Red Sox -116 (8.5) Game #1
Dodgers -162 (7.6)
Astros -170 (7.7)Comment -
Some more SDQL added.
PLAY: The Red Sox Game #1 (195-129 +23.3% ROI)
H and -8 > (starter wins - starter losses + o:starter losses - o:starter wins) > -14 and day != Wednesday and day != Thursday and day != Friday and 6 > s:SRA > 0 and p:hits < 13 and total > 6.5 and (1.4 > STDSWHIP>1.1 or tA(runs) > 4.8)
PLAY: The Tigers (537-378 +9.7% ROI)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)
PLAY: The Orioles are 17-0 SU at home after a game as a home dog in which they allowed 12-plus hits.
team = Orioles and H and p:H and p and po:hits>=12 and date >= 20130602
UNDER: The Indians are 0-15 OU in the last game of a road series when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Indians and LGS and A and s:runs < 3 and AASB and date >= 20130821Comment -
I'm going to try to check the Phillies again before I leave for the day and if they are still qualifying for a system line play, I'll give it a go. Line plays are the only ones I really want to be adding later in the day, unless I find something really good.Comment -
I got a laugh out of the Rays opening at -140, but by the time I got done over thinking it as usual, it was already long gone.
Comment -
SDQL 7/17ALL = Yesterday 3-8 (Total 17-21) SU = Yesterday 1-3 (Total 10-5) OU = Yesterday 2-5 (Total 7-16) Pre All-Star Break(Total 441-346)(Total 223-171)(Total 218-185)---------------------------------SUFADE: The Tigers are 0-16 SU in the first game of a series as a dog of more than 130 off a game as a favorite in which they drew four-plus walks and they are facing a starter with an ERA higher than two.team = Tigers and FGS and line>130 and p:F and p:walks>=4 and o:STDSERA>2PLAY: The Phillies are 15-0 SU in the first game of a series after they scored first, trailed and won and it is after the All-Star break.team = Phillies and FGS and p:W and p:SF>0 and po:BL > 0 and AASB and date >= 20050826PLAY: The Marlins (141-113 +10.0% ROI)STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3PLAY: The Orioles are 17-1 SU at home after a game as a home dog in which they allowed 12-plus hits.team = Orioles and H and p:H and p and po:hits>=12 and date >= 20130602PLAY: The Orioles and Athletics ( 1000-600 +11.7% ROI)H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5) ------------OUUNDER: Phillies/Marlins (165-82-7 +26.8%)STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3OVER: The Rangers are 10-0 OU in the first game of a series as a dog off a game as a favorite in which they drew one or fewer walks and it is after the All-Star break.team = Rangers and FGS and D and p:F and p:walks <= 1 and AASB and date >= 20060717OVER: The Rays are 13-0 OU in the first game of a road series when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs.team = Rays and A and -120 <= line <= 120 and p:HPR>=3 and p:L and SG = 1 and date >= 20110422UNDER: The Rays are 0-12 OU in the first game of a series as a favorite after a game as a road favorite in which they struck out at least ten times.team = Rays and FGS and F and p:AF and p:SO >= 10 and date >= 20090703________________SU RoyalsOriolesAthleticsOU Phillies/Marlins UnderRangers/Orioles Over___________________________________I f you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
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ANY TIPS FOR DEALING WITH THIS. I COPY AND PASTE FROM MY NOTEPAD EVERYDAY AND IT ENDS UP LIKE THIS AND I HAVE TO GO THROUGH IT AND FIX IT?Comment -
I got home late last night and had an appt. this morning so I'm behind big time today, SDQL is all I have gotten too.Comment -
We skated by on that under in atl! LolComment -
yea wasn't looking good when I left and I had crap connection where I was at so I couldn't check the scores. I seen the Cards and Rangers lost in the bottom of the 9th, haha, sonz of bishes.
I'm interested in the Under in the Astros and Marlins games so far, and I kind of like the Pirates, Mariners, Tigers, and Phillies, what you got for today?Comment -
The way matheny manages a game is beyond stupid, guy really has no business managing a big league club as he single handedly cost the team games w boneheaded decisions!! I understand his options out of the pen are far from ideal, that said it makes no sense to pull your ace for a pitch hitter that did nothing when you already had gotten him a lead and he was only at 95 pitches. When your pen sucks you leave your starter in when he pitching well! If they let Carlos pitch the 8th then they can bring rosenthal in for the 9th or to finish up 8th if Martinez happened to get in trouble (he should be closer anyways as he far and away best we have out of pen!). I get Oh has struggled but that struggle has been mostly due to ineffectiveness vs lefties, so why the fukk he brings Cecil in to close against mostly right handed bats is beyond me!?!? If Cecil our closer they should just sell everyone at deadline cause dude ain't a closer!!
I just can't play under in Stros games as they have a tendency to score freaking 10 by themselves!! Lol.
All I've played thus far is rangers and cubs rl.. I hate cashner and consider over in that game but 11 such a big number and balty offense just isn't trustable at moment.
I was looking at tigers as well but line has dropped too much for me. Trying to wait on umps but lean over in kc.Comment -
Didn't help cards only managed 3 runs on 13 hits 3 walks and 2 pit errors! Gyrko hit into 3 double plays, freaking most pathetic 4 hole hitter in league! Lol..Comment -
Monday Plays 7/17
»-Cardinals +104
»-Tigers +114
»-Red Sox -103
»-Phillies/Marlins Under 9 -108
»-Mariners/Astros Under 9 +102
»-Cardinals/Mets Under 9 -113
»-Cubs/Braves Under 9 -101
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