MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

FUqer · 07-06-17, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by OlDirtyBaztid

i'm wth you on both those plays.only thing that gets me nervous about the dbacks, aside from dodgers being one of the best teams in baseball, is the public % on favoring them.
i post on covers. the amount of negativity on this site is unreal so i just avoid it.

haha, you only get trolls when your winning, so I don't get them here. I would welcome them in here, it would mean I'm doing good. I've dealt with them on another forum I've been posting at for a few years, but I usually just ignore them and they go away.

I think Robbie Ray was getting a lot of attention in the media today for making the all star team so the public was eating it up. He'll have to be on his A game cuz they can't score vs lefties.

FUqer · 07-07-17, 12:40 AM

Thursday Results 7/6

L - »-Red Sox FF -½ -115

L - »-D-Backs +130
W - »-Athletics +145

L - »-Braves/Nationals Over 9 -113

___________________________
Yesterday = 1-3 = -1.83
___________________________
Bankroll = 2143 / 3000
___________________________
Freaking D-Backs blowing a 4-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th ruined a winning day for me, still can't escape those bad beats. That's what I get for playing on a public dog. I should of never went against the SDQL for that game anyway, regardless of the bad beat, it was a mistake.

I backed Faria every time he started so far but for some reason went against him today. I try to pick my spots with those square picks but failed today. I thought the same thing might happen to him that happened to Newcomb the other day, but they are two different types of pitchers, one a power pitcher and one a spot pitcher, the young power pitches might be the ones to watch about fading going deeper into the season.

Hopefully the pubic doesn't like the Marlins and Cardinals too much for tomorrow.

FUqer · 07-07-17, 04:27 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 7/7

»-Cardinals -113
»-Marlins -108

»-Braves/Nationals Over 8 -108
»-Marlins/Giants Over 8 -113
»-Padres/Phillies Under 9 -113
»-D-Backs/Reds Under 9 -103
»-Athletics/Mariners Over 8 +105
________________________________

I added 3 total plays. I like the Over in the Yankees game but I may go Yankees TT Over. I also like the Orioles and Padres but they seem too popular right now, I'm gonna see how those play out.

The Cubs lines are still inflated, the Over is on my radar, depending on the # when released.

The Yankees line seems high at first glance but Guerra's sabermetrics are pretty bad. The Brewers going against a lefty for the 3rd str8 game, winning the first two. They would be a play if I liked their pitcher a little more. Instead I like the Yankees RL.

FUqer · 07-07-17, 04:50 AM

SDQL 7/7

ALL = Yesterday 7-1 (Total 421-341)
SU = Yesterday 4-0 (Total 215-164)
OU = Yesterday 3-1 (Total 206-177)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Cubs are 29-1 SU since Jul 27, 2015 as a home 140+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had 6 or fewer hits.

team=Cubs and HF and p:F and line <=-140 and p:hits<=6 and date>=20150727

PLAY: The Yankees are 20-0 SU & 17-3 RL as a 140+ home favorite in the first game of a series after scoring 6+ runs.

team = Yankees and line<=-140 and HF and p:runs>=6 and FGS and date >= 20120430

PLAY: The Rockies are 15-1 SU since June 28th, 2013 as a favorite after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.

team = Rockies and F and p:TLOB < 5 and p:L and date >= 20130628

PLAY: The Rays (996-596 +11.8% ROI, 10-2 L12)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

FADE: The Tigers are 0-15 SU in the first game of a series as a dog of more than 130 off a game as a favorite in which they drew four-plus walks and they are facing a starter with an ERA higher than two.

team = Tigers and FGS and line>130 and p:F and p:walks>=4 and o:STDSERA>2

PLAY: The Indians (538-377 +9.8% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

PLAY: The Orioles (82-48 +13.4% ROI)

A and -110>line>-165 and conference=o:conference and 5.7>=STDSERA>=5.2 and conference=AL

PLAY: The Blue Jays are 15-0 RL as a home dog off a game as a dog after they had 12-plus hits.

team = Blue Jays and H and D and p

and 12 <= p:hits and date >= 20080824

------------

OU

UNDER: Marlins/Giants and Padres/Phillies (462-230-36 +25.7% ROI)

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

OVER: The Marlins are 15-0 OU as a road favorite in the first game of a series when they won the last two games their starter started.

team = Marlins and FGS and A and F and s:W and ss:W and date >= 20050613

OVER: The Royals are 10-0 OU in the first game of a series as a dog off a road game in which they scored first, trailed and won.

team = Royals and FGS and D and p:A and p:W and p:SF>0 and po:BL > 0 and date >= 20040923

OVER: Both teams off rest this season. (63-37-6 +19.3% ROI)
(Angels/Rangers)

H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 142-102-10 OU +11.0% ROI this season.
(Mets, Marlins, Athletics, Red Sox)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (154-109-18 +11.2% ROI)
(Athletics, Astros, Cubs, Mariners, White Sox)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Cubs
Yankees
Rockies
Rays
Indians
Orioles

OU

Marlins/Giants Over
Padres/Phillies Under
Royals/Dodgers Over
Angels/Rangers Over
Mets/Cardinals Over
Athletics/Mariners Over
Astros/Blue Jays Over
Pirates/Cubs Over
White Sox/Rockies Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

FUqer · 07-07-17, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 7/7

»-Cardinals -113
»-Marlins -108
»-Padres +106
»-Rays +128
»-Orioles -124
»-Yankees -1.5 -118

»-Braves/Nationals Over 8 -108
»-Marlins/Giants Over 8 -113
»-Padres/Phillies Under 9 -113
»-D-Backs/Reds Under 9 -103
»-Athletics/Mariners Over 8 +105
»-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -108
________________________________

Additions.

FUqer · 07-07-17, 05:31 PM

Parlay: Risking 69 cents to win 1 unit

D-Backs
Indians
Nationals

Braves o3 -115
Athletics o3½ -115

Angels/Rangers Over 10
Mets/Cardinals Over 7.5
White Sox/Rockies Over 11.5

FUqer · 07-08-17, 12:50 AM

Friday Results 7/7

L - »-Cardinals -113
W - »-Marlins -108
W - »-Padres +106
L - »-Rays +128
L - »-Orioles -124

L - »-Yankees -1.5 -118

W - »-Braves/Nationals Over 8 -108
L - »-Marlins/Giants Over 8 -113
W - »-Padres/Phillies Under 9 -113
P - »-~~D-Backs/Reds Under~~ 9 -103
W - »-Athletics/Mariners Over 8 +105
W - »-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -108
___________________________
Yesterday = 6-5-1 = +0.43
___________________________
Bankroll = 2165 / 3000
___________________________

It was a winning day but I feel pretty disappointed in some of my side play decisions and of course had a couple of bad beats when playing on popular public plays. I dunno why I didn't play the Yankees Over after I was on it all day and it dropped to a playable price.

No problem with the Cardinals decision.
Marlins were my play of the week.
Glad the Padres public love dropped to playable and the delay didn't mess them up too much.

The Rays were based strictly on one of my favorite large sampled SDQL trends that's been hot lately, but I was able to resist it until the last hour. It was a dumb mistake. The Rays lineup isn't built to go vs lefties and Pomeranz was the better pitcher, I was hoping the Red Sox was going to go into easy mode before the all-star break after their 6 game streak ended, but I should give any weight to such baseless gut feelings. They still had plenty of opportunities to be in that game but couldn't get the job done.

The Orioles was up 6-0 after 3 innings and of course blew it. It was the worst decision of the night for me. I posted early last night that the Twins were one of my 3 early side leans, then I thought Gausman was due for a good game and didn't like the Twins pitcher, but I posted this morning about how I didn't like how the public liked the Padres and them as much as they did, and I wanted to wait, I prefer under 60%. The Padres fell, the Orioles didn't, but for some stupid reason I played them both. Dee Dee Dee!

I have no idea why I even try to play the Yankees, that in itself was stupid.

Total plays went good again with my only loss being in the Marlins/Giants game where the Marlins got 4 in the top of the 1st and the Under still hits. This was one of my earliest plays and if I had waited until I did my SDQL for the night and saw that Under trend on them, the same one I played on for the Padres/Phillies Under, there would be no way I would of played the Over.

I got a bad beat push in the D-Backs game, 6-0 in the 9th and the Reds just happen to get 3 across. I'll live with that one since I got lucky with the Over in the Nationals game, but I think I'm owed some of those anyway.

Like I said, it wasn't a bad night, but could of been so much better if not for some stupid mistakes and bad breaks.

FUqer · 07-08-17, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Parlay: Risking 69 cents to win 1 unit

D-Backs
Indians
Nationals

Braves o3 -115
Athletics o3½ -115

~~Angels/Rangers Over~~ 10
Mets/Cardinals Over 7.5
White Sox/Rockies Over 11.5

Missed it by one. I wish I would played 20 plays tonight, would of been a good night.

FUqer · 07-08-17, 12:54 AM

Blue Jays, Mets, White Sox, Reds/D-Backs Under are my early leans for tomorrow.

FUqer · 07-08-17, 03:09 AM

Saturday Plays 7/8

»-Padres/Phillies Under 8 -108
»-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 +107
»-Braves/Nationals Over 9 +105
»-Athletics/Mariners Over 10 +101
»-Reds/D-Backs Under 9.5 -108
»-Royals/Dodgers Under 9 -108
___________________________

I'm not really feeling too many side plays, at least any that are playable aside from maybe the Blue Jays.

FUqer · 07-08-17, 03:55 AM

SDQL 7/8

ALL = Yesterday 9-6 (Total 430-347)
SU = Yesterday 3-3 (Total 218-167)
OU = Yesterday 6-3 (Total 212-180)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Rangers (78-29 +29.7% ROI, 13-3 L16)

H and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and season > 2008 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and rest = 0

PLAY: The Rangers (49-18 +19.2% ROI, 6-0 L6)

HF and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and (SG=2 or SG=3) and conference = AL

PLAY: The Indians and Rockies (104-65 +10.1% ROI)

HF and line<-130 and line>-160 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10

FADE: The White Sox (427-563 -12.6% ROI)

p:margin=-8

PLAY: The Twins (996-597 +11.7% ROI, 10-3 L13)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Astros (537-377 +9.8% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

PLAY: Teams are 30-7 SU the last two seasons as a Home Favorite on Saturday when they lost the previous game at Home as a dog.
(Rays)

p:HL and p

and HF and day=Saturday and season>=2016

PLAY: The Cardinals are 15-1 SU since Sept 13, 2013 when Adam Wainwright starts at home when his last start was at home.

team=Cardinals and starter= Adam Wainwright and H and s:H and date>=20130913

------------

OU

UNDER: Padres/Phillies (461-230-36 +25.8% ROI, 12-2 L14)

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

UNDER: Royals/Dodgers (387-219-30 +21.0% ROI, 12-5 L17)

H and month > 5 and season>2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8>(s:SRA-os:SRA)>-4 and (p:hits + os:walks)<15 and month!=8 and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA<5 and 30.7>(p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP)>18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP)>19.4 and total>6.4 and p

u margin>-6.6 and streak<5 and o:streak<6 and -8 < o

u streak<4 and os:SPT<123 and team!=Twins and team!=Red Sox and o:team!=Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO)>9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO)<26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO +osssss:SSO)>13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO)<31

OVER: Braves/Nationals 19-5 OU L24 meetings

team=Braves and o:team=Nationals and date>=20160414

OVER: The Braves are 19-5 OU off a loss as a dog in which they held the lead.

team = Braves and p

and p:BL > 0 and p:L and date >= 20160803

UNDER: The Red Sox are 2-16 OU since Apr 17, 2016 as a dog after they hit more home runs than their opponent last game.

team=Red Sox and D and p:HR > po:HR and date>=20160417

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 145-103-10 OU +11.5% ROI this season.
(Astros, Pirates)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (158-110-18 +12.0% ROI)
(Athletics, Astros, Mariners, White Sox)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Rangers
Indians
Rockies
Twins
Astros
Rays
Cardinals

OU

Padres/Phillies Under
Royals/Dodgers Under
Braves/Nationals Over
Red Sox/Rays Under
Astros/Blue Jays Over
Pirates/Cubs Over
Athletics/Mariners Over
White Sox/Rockies Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

FUqer · 07-08-17, 02:38 PM

Teheran 1-8 L9 team starts vs Nationals, Over is 5-0 L5 and 9-2 L11.
Strasburg is 3-7 his last 10 team starts at Home vs the Braves, Over is 7-1 L8.Over is 19-5 L24 in the series.

Padres giving up 6.1 rpg when Chacin starts on the Road this season.
Nola has been dominating his last 3 starts, team gave up a total of 3 runs in those 3 games, while scoring 17.

Mets have gone Over the total in 6 of Zack Wheeler's last 8 starts.
Adam Wainwright has lost his last 3 team starts at Home vs the Mets.
Cardinals 10-4 the last 14 times Wainwright has started.

The Pirates have went Under the total in Ivan Nova's last 5 starts, 2-5 SU L7 in his L7 starts on the Road.
The Cubs are 9-2 OU L11 when Arrieta starts at Home.
The Cubs are 6-2 SU vs the Pirates when Arrieta starts at Home, giving up 2.88 rpg, and 13-5 SU overall vs the Pirates when he starts giving up 3.06 rpg.

The Giants are 6-2 SU vs the Marlins when Jeff Samardzija starts, Over is 5-2. 4-0 SU at Home, 3-0 RL at Home.

The D-Backs are 10-3 when Taijuan Walker starts for them, winning their last 5.

I like Luis Castillo who held is own in his first start at Colorado in his last start and has faced strong hitting teams in all 3 of his starts, two of which were on the Road.

The Astros are 9-2 L11 Road starts by Mike Fiers.
The Blue Jays are 8-3 L11 starts by Marcus Stroman and 5-1 in his L6 starts at Home.

The Red Sox are 0-2 vs the Rays this season when Rick Porcello starts, the Over is 4-0 L4 and 6-2 L8 when he starts vs the Rays.
The Over is 3-0 L3 times Cobb started vs the Red Sox and 6-1 L7.
Red Sox 6-3 vs Rays when Porcello starts on the Road.
Rays 1-5 vs Red Sox when Cobb starts at Home.

The Tigers are 0-5 L5 times Justin Verlander started on the Road and 1-7 L8, Over is 6-2 L8.
The Tigers are 2-9 L11 vs the Indians when Verlander starts, 0-5 L5 on the Road.
The Indians have lost the last 4 at Home when Mike Clevinger has started, Under 6-1 L7.

FUqer · 07-08-17, 06:37 PM

On the road right now had to get a pic of this.

FUqer · 07-09-17, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Saturday Results 7/8

»-Padres/Phillies Under 8 -108
»-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 +107
»-Braves/Nationals Over 9 +105
»-Athletics/Mariners Over 10 +101
»-Reds/D-Backs Under 9.5 -108
»-~~Royals/Dodgers~~ Under 9 -108
___________________________

___________________________
Yesterday = 3-2-1 = +1.05
___________________________
Bankroll = 2217 / 3000
___________________________

Not a bad night, it would of been better if not for a late score by the Dodgers to force a push and if I would played those sides I liked, but I decided to take the day off from sides. I'm getting that same kind of feeling today about sides, there doesn't seem to be many sides that I like that are playable.

FUqer · 07-09-17, 07:03 AM

SDQL 7/9

ALL = Yesterday 7-7-1 (Total 437-344)
SU = Yesterday 4-3 (Total 222-170)
OU = Yesterday 3-4-1 (Total 215-184)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Cubs are 12-0 SU since Jun 14, 2015 when Jon Lester starts as a home 140+ favorite when they lost in his last start.

team=Cubs and starter=Jon Lester and H and line<=-140 and s:L and date>=20150614

PLAY: The Pirates are 18-0 RL as a 140-plus dog off a road game when they won the last two games their starter started.

team = Pirates and 140 <= line and p:A and s:W and ss:W and date >= 20120519

------------

OU

UNDER: The Cardinals are 0-13 OU in franchise history when Lance Lynn starts at home in July.

team = Cardinals and starter = Lance Lynn and H and month = 7

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 145-105-10 OU +11.5% ROI this season.
(Astros, Royals, Marlins, Tigers, Braves, Brewers)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (158-110-18 +12.0% ROI)
(None Today?)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Cubs

Marlins
OU

Mets/Cardinals Under
Astros/Blue Jays Over
Royals/Dodgers Over
Tigers/Indians Over
Braves/Nationals Over
Brewers/Yankees Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

________________________________________ ___________________________

Database has not updated yet for some reason, making it impossible for me to check my SDQL, not sure if I'll have time to go through it later or not.

FUqer · 07-09-17, 07:31 AM

I do like a bunch of sides, just not sure if enough to pull the trigger, cuz most are personal picks.

Braves - I like Newcomb but these power pitchers start strong and fade quick and he got rocked last game vs a big league lineup, although the Nats aren't hitting too well right now.

Padres - Not one that I like a lot, I just think they have the momentum and Eickhoff finds it hard to win games.

Mets - I've always been high on Matz and low on Cardinals vs lefties with advantage to LHP in that stadium, and Lynn hasn't been sharp at Home.

Tigers - Tigers usually hit Kluber pretty good and Fulmer is one of my favorite pitchers and the price is attractive, I've just had no luck with bigger dogs this season.

Brewers - Nelson has quietly been pitching pretty good and Tanaka has been lit up at times this season. I wonder how the Brewers will do after facing 3 str8 lefties.

White Sox - They have to always be considered against Lefties and Freeland seems like he is fading a bit. The White Sox have gave me problems this season though.

SAX27 · 07-09-17, 07:47 AM

Nice call on the Pads/Phils under yesterday!

FUqer · 07-09-17, 08:02 AM

Cardinals 12-5 at Home in day games, Under 6-2 L8.

Nationals 1-3 at Home vs lefties in day games, Under 4-0.
Braves 5-0 L5 Road day games.

Red Sox 5-0 on the Road vs Division in day games.
Rays lost last 3 Home Division day games, Over is 6-0 L6 day games, 11-5 overall.

Yankees lost last 4 Home day games, Over is 9-4 overall in Yankees day Home games.
Brewers 7-2 L9 day games.

White Sox 6-11 on the Road during the day, 2-7 L9, 2-1 vs lefties.
Rockies 10-6 in Home day games, lost the last 2.

The Over is 11-2-3 in Sunday Night games this season.

FUqer · 07-09-17, 08:58 AM

Sunday Plays 7/9

»-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -103
»-Mets/Cardinals Over 9 -108
»-Red Sox/Rays Over 8 +102
»-Orioles/Twins Under 10.5 -108
»-Athletics/Mariners Over 9.5 +102
»-Tigers/Indians Over 8 -108
___________________________

SAX27 · 07-09-17, 09:26 AM

Go get 'em....think its going to be wild one in Minnesota w/Jimenez & Gibson on the mound.

Thoughts on Padres/Phillies under?

FUqer · 07-09-17, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by SAX27

Go get 'em....think its going to be wild one in Minnesota w/Jimenez & Gibson on the mound.

Thoughts on Padres/Phillies under?

That's some of the reason I'm playing the Under in the Twins game, everyone believes it will be high scoring, but both teams can shit the bed on offense too, I get 9.8 for that game, but yea Jimenez has been scary.

For the Padres/Phillies I get 8.0 and normally it would of been a play but it applies to an Over system at 9, if becomes playable at 8.5 I may reconsider the Under. I know some of it doesn't seem to make sense, but it's been working for me.

It's a little risky for 5 over plays on a Sunday but yesterday had a lot of Unders.

FUqer · 07-09-17, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Sunday Plays 7/9

»-Padres +101
»-Brewers +146
»-White Sox +107

»-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -103
»-Mets/Cardinals Over 9 -108
»-Red Sox/Rays Over 8 +102
»-Orioles/Twins Under 10.5 -108
»-Athletics/Mariners Over 9.5 +102
»-Tigers/Indians Over 8 -108
»-White Sox/Rockies Over 12 -105
___________________________

Added 3 sides and 1 more total, I considered the White Sox -2 +196 briefly.

FUqer · 07-09-17, 10:38 AM

A few SDQL additions now that the database is working.

FADE: The Giants (122-229 -29.2% ROI, but 11-1 L12.)

(so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7

PLAY: The Cubs (996-598 +11.7% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

--------------------------------

UNDER: Marlins/Giants (462-230-36 +25.9%)

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

UNDER: Royals/Dodgers (76-47-11 +17.9% ROI)

H and total<=7 and 9 * tS(o:earned runs - starter earned runs) / tS(9 - starter innings pitched) <= 3.75 and tA(walks)>=4 and 2010<=season and SG<4

OVER: Royals/Dodgers (57-39-7 +12.7% ROI)

H and total<=7 and day=Sunday and STDSWHIP<=1.05 and conference=NL and SG>2

FUqer · 07-09-17, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Sunday Plays 7/9

»-Padres +101
»-Brewers +146
»-White Sox +107

»-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -103
»-Mets/Cardinals Over 9 -108
»-Red Sox/Rays Over 8 +102
»-Orioles/Twins Under 10.5 -108
»-Athletics/Mariners Over 9.5 +102
»-Tigers/Indians Over 8 -108
»-White Sox/Rockies Over 12 -105
»-Marlins/Giants Under 8 +102
___________________________

Added Marlin/Giants Under based on the SDQL trend that's been red hot recently and great long term.

FUqer · 07-09-17, 10:52 AM

I'm out for the day, may be back in time to take a look at the Tigers again for tonight. GL today!

FUqer · 07-12-17, 02:39 AM

Friday Projections

CHC@bal (-117 53.9%) (8.4)
STL@pit (-122 54.9%) (8.3)
tor@DET (-117 54.0%) (9.3)
col@NYM (-114 53.2%) (7.2)
LAD@mia (-137 57.9%) (7.4)
ARI@atl (-130 56.6%) (8.7)
phi@MIL (-155 60.8%) (10.2)
min@HOU (-151 60.1%) (7.6)
CLE@oak (-140 58.3%) (7.1)
SF@sd (-111 52.5%) (8.3)
_________________________

I made some significant changes, updates and additions to my model during the break.

Model has the Cardinals favored, small advantage in pitching for the Pirates but I get over 4% advantage on offense for the Cardinals and that's increased by PNC park being friendlier for lefty hitters, where the Cardinals are ranked top ten and the Pirates bottom 5.

FUqer · 07-12-17, 02:57 AM

Leake has a WHIP below 1.00 on the Road this season at 0.94.
Leake 5-11 in PIT. OU 6-10
Leake 3-6 vs Division this season.
Cardinals OU 18-11 on the Road vs Righties this season.

Cole has given up 13 HR's to lefties this season, compared to 8 combined the previous 2 seasons.
Lefties are batting .291 off Cole this year and .329 last season.
Cole 4-1 in PIT. OU 4-1
Cole OU 5-13 this season, OU 1-6 vs Division.
Pirates 0-6-1 OU L7 games, OU 5-16-1 L22 vs righties.
Pirates 2-6 SU L8 at Home vs Righties, OU 2-6.

FUqer · 07-12-17, 08:30 PM

Some predictions and power rankings. The Indians are higher than others might have them, but I think they are in good shape in their division and the way they went into Houston and handled them left an impression on me.

The Cubs should make a run a run but they got a lot work to do and haven't shown many positive signs and the Dodgers and Nationals are looking good in the NL this year.

There was a few tough calls for me, I thought that each group of 5 was easy, but the order of those 5 was tough.

American League

EAST

02 - Red Sox
05 - Yankees
06 - Rays
08 - Blue Jays
11 - Orioles
___________

CENTRAL

01 - Indians
07 - Royals
10 - Tigers
12 - Twins
14 - White Sox
____________

WEST

03 - Astros
04 - Rangers
09 - Mariners
13 - Angels
15 - Athletics

___________________________

National League

EAST

02 - Nationals
08 - Mets
10 - Marlins
11 - Braves
15 - Phillies
_____________

CENTRAL

03 - Cubs
06 - Brewers
07 - Cardinals
09 - Pirates
13 - Reds
_____________

WEST

01 - Dodgers
04 - D-Backs
05 - Rockies
12 - Giants
14 - Padres

___________________________

OVERALL

01 - Dodgers
02 - Indians
03 - Red Sox
04 - Nationals
05 - Astros
06 - Cubs
07 - D-Backs
08 - Rangers
09 - Rockies
10 - Yankees
11 - Brewers
12 - Rays
13 - Cardinals
14 - Royals
15 - Mets
16 - Blue Jays
17 - Mariners
18 - Pirates
19 - Tigers
20 - Marlins
21 - Braves
22 - Orioles
23 - Giants
24 - Twins
25 - Angels
26 - White Sox
27 - Athletics
28 - Reds
29 - Padres
30 - Phillies

FUqer · 07-13-17, 12:00 AM

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FUqer · 07-13-17, 06:53 PM

Early Leans

Based on model only.

Rays -108 (-154) at Angels
D-Backs -113 (-130) at Braves
Rangers +115 (+101) at Royals
Rockies +135 (+114) at Mets
Cardinals +106 (-122) at Pirates
White Sox +154 (+111) vs Mariners

----

Cubs/Orioles Under 10 (8.4)
Twins/Astros Under 9 (7.6)
Mariners/White Sox Under 9.5 (8.1)
Dodgers/Marlins Under 8.5 (7.4)

FUqer · 07-13-17, 10:30 PM

SDQL 7/14

ALL = Sunday 4-2-2 (Total 441-346)
SU = Sunday 1-1 (Total 223-171)
OU = Sunday 3-1-2 (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Nationals are 14-0 SU since May 4, 2016 as a road favorite after they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter last game.

team=Nationals and AF and po:BPRA > po:SRA and date>=20160504

PLAY: The Braves, Brewers, and Padres (996-599 +11.6%)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Pirates (46-22 +24.7% ROI)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

------------

OU

UNDER: Cubs/Orioles (49-26-2 +24.7% ROI)

team = Orioles and H and date >= 20160709

UNDER: Giants/Padres (288-199-27 +12.4%)

H and REG and 6.5<=total<=8 and total/2<=STDSERA<=5.25 and total/2<=o:STDSERA<=5.25 and 1.25<=STDSWHIP<=1.55 and 1.25<=o:STDSWHIP<=1.55 and season>=2007

UNDER: Cardinals/Pirates (41-24-3 +20.4%)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

OVER: The Braves are 20-4 OU at home after they allowed 12-plus hits.

team = Braves and H and 12 <= po:hits and date >= 20160612

OVER: D-Backs/Braves (78-50-5 +15.8% ROI)

team=Braves and date>=20160811

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 148-107-10 OU +10.8% ROI this season.
(Twins, Indians, D-Backs, Dodgers, Rockies, Cardinals, Mariners)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (158-115-18 +10.0% ROI)
(Braves, Nationals)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Nationals
Braves
Brewers
Padres
Pirates
Rangers

OU

Cubs/Orioles Under
Giants/Padres Under
D-Backs/Braves Over
Twins/Astros Over
Indians/Athletics Over
Dodgers/Marlins Over
Rockies/Mets Over
Mariners/White Sox Over
Nationals/Reds Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

FUqer · 07-13-17, 11:18 PM

Friday Plays 7/14

»-Rays -112

»-Cubs/Orioles Under 10 -103
___________________________

Faria 5-1 team starts this season, with only team loss coming when the bullpen gave up 5 runs in a 3-3 game after 6 innings.

Opponents have only scored 1 run in 4 of Faria's 6 team starts.

Faria isn't a power pitcher so less chance that he starts to fade due to fatigue, IMO.

Nolasco 1-7 L8 team starts vs the Rays.

Under 9-1-1 L11 in series.

Rays have won the last 5 in LA, last 21 of 29 there.

Rays 5-2 Away, this season on Friday's.

Angels 2-5 Home, this season on Friday's.

Rays 10-5 Away, this season in first game of the series, 3-0 L3.

Angels 4-8 Home, this season in the first game of the series, 0-5 L5.

FUqer · 07-13-17, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 7/14

»-Rays -112
»-Cardinals +108

»-Cubs/Orioles Under 10 -103
___________________________

I added the Cardinals, I already posted the reasons why I like them yesterday.

FUqer · 07-14-17, 12:15 AM

Still on the fence with the Rangers.

PLAY: The Rangers are 10-0 SU vs the Royals their L10 meetings, Under 8-2. (Added to SDQL plays)

10-0 (2.20, 100.0%)

avg line: -125.8 / 115.5

on / against: +$1,013 / -$1,041

ROI: +77.2% / -100.0%

Under 11-1 L12 meetings in KC.
Perez 3-9 team record L12 Road starts.
Hammel 4-14 team record last 18 starts, 3-9 L12 at Home.

FUqer · 07-14-17, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 7/14

»-Rays -112
»-Cardinals +108
»-Rangers +111

»-Cubs/Orioles Under 10 -103
___________________________

I added the Rangers after looking at a few more things. The Royals are better hitters from the left side and although Perez hasn't shown it this season, he is usually strong vs lefties, so his numbers should get better in that dept. Hammel's GB% is under 40% and he has given up 8 homers to righties this year and the Rangers are a top 10 hitting team from the right side. The pitching and offense edge has to go to the Rangers, while the Royals have the bullpen advantage, but both squads should be nice and rested.