-
Comment -
Added to SDQL CO: Vince Atkins
OVER: The Reds are 15-0 OU since Apr 15, 2016 as a 170+ dog after they used 5+ pitchers last game.
team=Reds and line>=+170 and p:PU>=5 and date>=20160415Comment -
FADE: The Phillies are 0-14 SU since May 02, 2016 on the road coming off a game as a dog in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits.
team=Phillies and A and p
and po:hits<=6 and date>=20160502
OVER: The Diamondbacks are 9-0 OU since Jul 02, 2013 when Patrick Corbin starts after they won as an away dog in his last start.
team=Diamondbacks and starter=Patrick Corbin and s:ADW and date>=20130702Comment -
Wow, another wtf just happened loss for me with the Blue Jays and now the Rangers let the Yanks tie it and go to extras where I'm 0-27. My possible 6-2 night looking more like a 4-4 night now.
Comment -
Friday Results 6/23
L - »-Blue Jays -124
L - »-White Sox -107
L - »-Rangers +108
L - »-Orioles +189
W - »-Mets/Giants Over 8.5 -108
W - »-Twins/Indians Under 10 -113
W - »-Tigers/Padres Under 8 -103
W - »-Dodgers TT Over 4.5 -110
___________________________
Yesterday = 4-4 = -0.31
___________________________
Bankroll = 955 / 2000
___________________________
Rangers up 1-0 in bottom of 9th and Blue Jays up 4-1 in Bottom of 9th and it's looking like a 6-2 night with the two late Over plays almost reached in the 2nd inning and then in a flash it's a 4-4 night. I knew once the Rangers went to extras it was over with my now 0-28 curse, I was able to hedge for half of it on the Yanks but I don't post or count live bets, they are questionable posting wise, IMO. Too many people lie about them and their record as it is.
The Blue Jays collapse I guess I deserved for guessing wrong about them not being such a highly public backed team when betting them so early. Weird things like that tend to happen against those sides like that late in games and with my bad luck, I need to avoid highly backed public plays as much as possible. It was still unbelievable, I left the room thinking it was over and came back to see the final score and it almost didn't surprise me it's happened so much to me this season. Every bad beat game it seems like I'm on the wrong side of.
The Orioles was just a plain bad pick. I knew Jimenez has been sucking and I don't know why I thought for some reason he was all of a sudden going to change just because he has had success against the Rays. I've done that too many times this season, it's about time I learn from it. I don't really have the luxury at playing teams that don't have a decent chance to win right now.
The White Sox bats are so unpredictable and never seem to show up when I play on them. It's too bad because I like them again tomorrow during a day game, but I'm reluctant, they have been my worse team playing on by far.
I think that covers the bad, fortunately all my total plays won easily.Comment -
I love the Rays but will have to be -1 or RL.
I like the Brewers and White Sox, but they may be too public.
Also considering the Pirates.
As far as totals, I'm consider the Over in the D-Backs game or TT O.
Considering the Astros Over or TT Over.
Considering Rays TT Over or Orioles TT Under.
Other possibilities for me are the Royals, Angels. Tigers/Padres Over, Reds/Nationals Over, Mets/Giants Over, Dodgers TT Over.
________________________________________ ___
I have 9 side plays and 9 total plays for my SDQL post later. I want to see some new names enter the Dog of the Day thread today. It takes 5 seconds to post a play in there and I know some of you are good at playing dogs.Comment -
Just got two new replacement yaks the other day and bout to hit the river up today if doesn't rain again.
Comment -
Comment -
SDQL 6/24
ALL = Yesterday 8-6-1 (Total 344-276)
SU = Yesterday 3-2 (Total 180-140)
OU = Yesterday 5-4-1 (Total 164-136)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Rays (985-593 +11.6% ROI)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)
PLAY: The Mariners and Rays (536-373 +10.2% ROI)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)
PLAY: The Red Sox (55-23 +24.8% ROI)
H and 8.5 >= total >= 7 and tA(runs) <= 4.2 and o:STDSERA <= 4.2 and o:conference = AL and po:runs <= 4 and ppo:runs <= 4 and pppo:runs <= 4 and ppppo:runs <= 4 and pppppo:runs <= 4
PLAY: The Brewers (270-248 +20.4% ROI)
AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2
FADE: The Braves (235-238 -13.9% ROI)
p:margin =1 and pp:margin=1 and F and line>-210 and month!=5 and conference=o:conference
PLAY: The White Sox - Teams are 30-6 SU the last two seasons as a Home Favorite on Saturday when they lost the previous game at Home as a dog.
FADE: The Marlins are 0-20 SU as a 135-plus dog when their opponent is seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they never led.
team = Marlins and SG > 1 and line>=135 and po:BL = 0 and p:W and date >= 20140626
PLAY: The Indians are 12-0 SU since Jun 22, 2013 when Corey Kluber starts as a home favorite when they won in his last start in which he had a WHIP of less than 1.
team=Indians and HF and starter=Corey Kluber and s:W and s:SWHIP < 1 and date>=20130622
FADE: The Rockies are 1-21 SU as a 165-plus dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starters last start and it is not a series opener.
team = Rockies and SG > 1 and line>=165 and s:W and so:BL > 0 and season >= 2012
FADE: The Phillies are 2-24 SU since May 02, 2016 off a game as a dog in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits.
team = Phillies and p and po:hits <= 6 and date >= 20160502
------------
OU
UNDER: Tigers/Padres (89-46-8 +24.1% ROI)
H and 8.5 >= total >= 7 and tA(runs) <= 4.2 and o:STDSERA <= 4.2 and o:conference = AL and po:runs <= 4 and ppo:runs <= 4 and pppo:runs <= 4 and ppppo:runs <= 4 and pppppo:runs <= 4
UNDER: Rockies/Dodgers (60-36-7 +19.8% ROI)
H and total<=7 and 9 * tS(o:earned runs - starter earned runs) / tS(9 - starter innings pitched) <= 3.75 and tA(walks)>=4 and 2010<=season and SG<4
UNDER: The Athletics are 0-12 OU as a dog off a game as a favorite in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent since May 07, 2016.
team=Athletics and D and po:TLOB < p:TLOB and p:F and date>=20160507
OVER: The Cubs are 17-4 OU as a road favorite after a game as a road favorite in which they had more strikeouts than hits.
team = Cubs and SG > 1 and A and F and p:A and p:F and p:SO > p:hits and date >= 20160608
OVER: The Red Sox are 10-1 OU when David Price starts as a 150+ favorite when their opponent is averaging more than seven strike outs a game
team = Red Sox and starter = David Price and line<=-150 and oA(SO)>=7 and date >= 20160723
OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 119-78-7 OU +15.1% ROI this season.
(Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Tigers, Orioles)
A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017
OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (139-95-17 +12.8% ROI)
(Mets, Angels, Reds, Mariners, Rays, Red Sox)
date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O
________________
SU
Rays
Mariners
Red Sox
Brewers
White Sox
Cubs
Indians
Dodgers
D-Backs
OU
Rockies/Dodgers Under
Athletics/White Sox Under
Cubs/Marlins Over
Angels/Red Sox Over
Phillies/D-Backs Over
Mets/Gants Over
Orioles/Rays Over
Reds/Nationals Over
Astros/Mariners Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
Saturday Plays 6/24
»- Rays -1 -114
___________________________
Close to playing the Angels, would like them to fall into a system play for added confidence, I need it right now on these bigger dogs. Still a handful of totals and or team totals I'm having a hard time selecting from.Comment -
Interesting thread FUqer....that's a lot of work you're putting in....so if I understand correctly you are now at 955 from a bankroll of 2000?
Have you differentiated your individual team query results from your league-wide results, in both totals and side plays? Which subset of the above has been the most profitable? I'm not a big fan of individual team queries, but perhaps your past data would prove that this is a valid money maker, or not.
Baseball is tough....I've found that things change month to month and the strength of queries are sometimes weakened/strengthened by differing days of the week. For example, in April divisional away dogs do very well, except on the weekend. Why? Who knows? It reverses in June, so weekend away dogs have performed profitably.
I'm now doing a three game series chase based on home/away records that so far has been ok....starting with 1/4 unit, playing about 10 series twice a week, trying to win 2.5 units a week. So far, so good.
Good fortune to you, I'll keep an eye on your posts and expect that things go great for you the rest of the way.Comment -
Yes, it's actually been worse than that though. This season has been a learning experience for me with a enough bad luck to make anyone quit several times over, but I keep the big picture in mind. This is only my 3rd season and I've learned a great deal this year. Kind of hard to have a winning season when you're 0-28 in extra inning games and the weirdest stuff happens to you every other night, but that's betting, I deal with it the best I can. Money isn't an issue, but my pride hurts sometimes, but you also got to learn how to lose sometimes also.
Yes, when I personally play a SDQL play, I cross reference with league or vice versa with a specific team, I've mentioned that several times along with some of my other methods. I don't have the time or desire to post every single SDQL query I look up. I try to explain a pick when I make a play or explain enough of my picks so people understand my logic and angles that I use behind my plays even when I don't post explanations for every single one.
Good luck to you also.Comment -
»-Reds +140
_______________
System play less than 30% road dog between +130 - +145.Comment -
Saturday Results 6/24
L - »-Rays -1 -114
L - »-Brewers -102
W - »-Pirates +111
L - »-Reds +140
W - »-Twins/Indians Under 9 -103
W - »-Blue Jays/Royals Under 9 +100
L - »-Mets/Giants Over 8 +102
L - »-Astros/Mariners Over 9 -113
W - »-Tigers/Padres Over 9 +105
L - »-Orioles TT Under 4 +100
P - »-Dodgers TT Over 4 -120
___________________________
Yesterday = 4-6-1 = -2.13
___________________________
Bankroll = 849 / 2000
___________________________
Regrets: Mets/Giants Over was downright bad and not sure what I was thinking there. Should of gone with the Over in the Rays game instead of Orioles TT Under, Faria did his job, but the bullpen sucked. I was too afraid of the Over cuz of Faria. I also got caught with them being such a public play by betting them so early not thinking they would be so popular. The Reds plays was bad, but can't regret it, because it's a very good system, I was rushing all afternoon trying to do too much and was having a hard time narrowing down plays and again played too many. The Dodgers should of been an easy cover though, they get 4 in one inning early on and can't get another while stranding a ton of runners, so I had to settle for a push.Comment -
SDQL 6/25
ALL = Yesterday 7-11 (Total 351-287)
SU = Yesterday 3-6 (Total 183-146)
OU = Yesterday 4-5 (Total 168-141)
---------------------------------
SU
FADE: The Blue Jays (119-229 -30.0% ROI)
(so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7
PLAY: The Phillies (270-249 +20.2% ROI)
AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2
FADE: The Phillies were 2-17 SU as a 130-plus dog after they had six or fewer hits and it is not a series opener.
team = Phillies and SG > 1 and line>=130 and p:hits <= 6 and season >= 2016
FADE: The Phillies are 1-22 SU since Sep 11, 2016 on the road after their opponent scored first last game.
team=Phillies and A and po:SF>0 and date>=20160911
FADE: The Rockies are 1-22 SU as a 165-plus dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starters last start and it is not a series opener.
team = Rockies and SG > 1 and line>=165 and s:W and so:BL > 0 and season >= 2012
------------
OU
UNDER: Orioles/Rays (72-47 +14.5% ROI)
H and 10>=total>=8.5 and 54>=WP>=51 and o:WP<50 and day=Sunday and 2009<=season
OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 122-80-8 OU +15.0% ROI this season.
(Angels)
A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017
OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (141-999-17 +11.8% ROI)
(Reds, Rays)
date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O
________________
SU
Royals
D-Backs
Dodgers
OU
Angels/Red Sox Over
Reds/Nationals Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
Sunday Plays 6/25
»-Marlins +109
»-Tigers -103
»-Cubs/Marlins Over 9 +105
»-Tigers/Padres Over 9 +102
___________________________
All the other games I'm on the fence on or waiting for better prices.
Royals +102
Angels/Red Sox Over 11 +102 or Red Sox TT Over
Orioles/Rays Under 9.5 -118
Mets/Giants Under 9 -113 or Giants TT Under
Dodgers TT Over
Twins/Indians Under 9.5 -113 or Indians TT Under
Astros/Mariners Over 9Comment -
Dogs have won, are winning or are tied in all games at this point.
Comment -
Sunday Results 6/25
W - »-Marlins +109
W - »-Tigers -103
W - »-Astros +102
L - »-Cubs/Marlins Over 9 +105
W - »-Tigers/Padres Over 9 +102
L - »-Mets/Giants Under 9 -103
W - »-Mets TT Over 4 +100
___________________________
5-2 = +3.10
___________________________
Bankroll = 1004 / 2000
___________________________
Good reads on sides today for a change. Almost was sharp with the Mets TT Over and game Under, would of been really sharp if I took the Giants TT Under like I originally mentioned and I wanted to take the Mets also but so many dogs and Road teams won and were winning today it scared me off. The two totals that I lost were both opposite of my model, I actually had 8.9 in the Marlins game and 10.1 in the Giants but both were system fade plays that have gone 12-4 for me this week, so can't complain and the other one in that system won but I didn't play it cuz I didn't think it was contrarian enough. It figures I would miss the Reds system play today but played them in the one yesterday's loss. Could of been a better day if I played some of the ones I mentioned but I'll take 5-2 everyday. I was going to add grand to my bankroll from some winnings from tail plays, but things are looking up a little, so I may hold off.
With so many Road teams and dog teams winning today, I'd have to go with the Cardinals in tonight's game and the Under if I was playing them.Comment -
Comment -
Comment -
Love the MINN/BOS to go U. I think the like drops to 8 even before game time
Give me the Rockies at + money going against the Giants.Comment -
Will prolly be fading the Top 3 model projections for totals todays. And most likely playing the Indians RL, Twins, and maybe Reds, Cubs, White Sox, Under in Cardinals game and Over in Giants game are two model plays I'm considering for totals. The Over 9 in Indians game is +116, just waiting for database to update so I can check some SDQL real quick. Mondays are when I usually post more stuff like the above two things.
The RRL on dogs in games with totals of 9.5 or higher smashed it yesterday, not surprising seeing how so many dogs won. Will it be a day for the favorites today with the public doubling down on them or they gonna have yesterday fresh in their mind, the lines seems to be tilted to the favorites too much, but things can change.Comment -
A lot of people gonna love that game, especially those who just look at ERA's, that why it will most likely be a fade for me. The Twins usually bat decent vs Sale and Berrios has to prove to be human sooner or later. I'm hoping it does drop to 8, that a good thing about contrarian plays, you can wait a little longer before making a play and usually get a better line/price.Comment -
SDQL 6/26
ALL = Yesterday 2-3 (Total 353-290)
SU = Yesterday 2-1 (Total 185-147)
OU = Yesterday 0-2 (Total 168-143)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Cardinals (985-594 +11.5% ROI)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)
FADE: The Cubs are 0-12 SU as a dog after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks.
team = Cubs and D and 5 <= p:walks and p:L and date >= 20140709
FADE: The Phillies are 1-23 SU since Sep 11, 2016 on the road after their opponent scored first last game.
team=Phillies and A and po:SF>0 and date>=20160911
FADE: The Giants are 0-15 RL in the first game of a series as a home favorite off a home game in which they allowed 5-plus walks.
team = Giants and FGS and H and F and p:H and 5 <= po:walks and date >= 20100827
------------
OU
OVER: Twins are 15-4 OU on the road when they won their last two games and the opponent lost their last two games.
team = Twins and A and p:W and p2:W and op:L and op2:L and date >= 20150826
OVER: The Giants are 15-5 OU as a home favorite after they loss and never led.
team = Giants and HF and p:BL = 0 and p:L and date >= 20160421
OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 122-81-8 OU +14.5% ROI this season.
(Rockies, Rangers, Yankees)
A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017
________________
SU
Cardinals
Nationals
D-Backs
OU
Twins/Red Sox Over
Rockies/Giants Over
Rangers/Indians Over
Yankees/White Sox Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
Monday Plays 6/26
»-Indians -1.5 +117
»-Twins +188
»-Yankees/White Sox Over 10.5 +102
»-Rangers/Indians Over 9 +116
»-Reds/Cardinals Under 9.0 -101
»-Rockies/Giants Over 8.0 +102
___________________________
Waiting for Twins/Red Sox to drop to 8 at a decent price on the Over and on the fence with the White Sox. Backed off Cubs and Reds.Comment -
The Reds are so tempting today with the Cardinals just playing last night and having to play a make up game against a team who has beat them the last 5 times they played this year, then they have to travel to Arizona for a game Tuesday. Wacha is undefeated at Home vs the Reds though.Comment -
Added The White Sox, they are very good vs lefties and the Yanks are slumping. Added the Reds, the scheduling for the Cards is rough and their not very good vs lefties, especially at Home. I got a little better price on the Over 8 in the Twins game, surprised it didn't move more.Comment -
Comment -
Monday Results 6/26
W - »-Indians -1.5 +117
L - »-Twins +188
L - »-White Sox +149
L - »-Reds +137
W - »-Yankees/White Sox Over 10.5 +102
W - »-Rangers/Indians Over 9 +116
L - »-Reds/Cardinals Under 9 -101
W - »-Rockies/Giants Over 8 +102
L - »-Twins/Red Sox Over 8 -113
___________________________
Yesterday = 4-5 = -0.77
___________________________
Bankroll = 966 / 2000
___________________________
I made a few mistakes tonight, the last 3 adds were all losses and I should of stayed away from the two sides, like I originally planned. I'm in my best mind frame as I'm going through the information and then I make my selections and go about my day, then later for one reason or another I get on and add crap. I shouldn't be adding anything later unless I'm specifically waiting on a price or line or a play that fell into a system based on a line change.
The Twins Over, I was waiting on the line, but I need to do better determining a contrarian system play from a stupid one that should just be passed on. The other two system fades I played both won.
And I played the an under in the Cardinals game based too heavily on my model and that's not a good idea. The only Over for model projections won again, making it 60-29 in Overs.
I also got to be more weary of bad teams on streaks, good or bad, like the White Sox aren't hitting the ball and couldn't even hit a left today for 7 innings. The Twins who were rolling and had more success vs Sale than any other team fell flat.
Still a learning process, sometimes I gotta repeat the same mistakes over before they finally register. Hopefully sharing my failures and thoughts can help someone not have to learn the hard way.Comment -
model projections, I try to do them before the lines come out for that dayComment -
Interesting. For what it's worth most of my plays happen to fall between the 52% - 57% of your projections and I hit very well on them. I have my own method of picking games just happens to fall in those parameters of your systemComment
