MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

**FUqer** · 06-18-17, 03:22 AM

SDQL 6/18

ALL = Yesterday 7-8 (Total 311-250)
SU = Yesterday 4-3 (Total 169-127)
OU = Yesterday 3-5 (Total 142-123)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Padres are 0-17 SU in the last game of a series as a 140-plus dog off a road game in which they allowed one or fewer walks.

team = Padres and LGS and line>=135 and p:A and po:walks <= 1 and season >= 2008

PLAY: The Brewers are 17-2 SU since May 15, 2014 in the last game of a series off a game as a favorite in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs.

team = Brewers and p:F and LGS and p:BPRA > 1 and date >= 20140515

FADE: The Orioles are 0-16 SU as a dog in the last game of a series off a game as a favorite when they lost the last two games their starter started.

team = Orioles and LGS and D and p:F and s:L and ss:L and date >= 20040627

FADE: The Nationals are 0-13 SU as a dog off a game as a favorite when seeking same season revenge vs their opponents starting pitcher and it is not a series opener.

team = Nationals and SG > 1 and D and p:F and oS:W and oS:season = season and date >= 20130430

FADE: The White Sox are 1-24 SU as a 155+ dog after a game in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.

team = White Sox and line>155 and po:LOB < 10 and season >= 2011

FADE: The Giants are 1-18 SU since August 1st 2014 as a dog of more than 130 in the last game of the series.

team = Giants and line>130 and LGS and date >= 20140800

FADE: The Giants are 2-18 SU since Aug 08, 2015 as a dog after they allowed 12+ hits last game.

team=Giants and D and po:hits >=12 and date>=20150808

PLAY: The Angels (78-28 +30.6% ROI)

H and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and season > 2008 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and rest = 0

PLAY: The Angels (169-108 +11.2% ROI)

H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month != 7 and month != 8) and 2008 <= season and SG > 1 and total > 6.5

PLAY: The Astros (55-21 +28.6% ROI)

H and tA(W)>=.45 and p:margin>=2 and tS(runs@team and season,N=6)=30 and po:BL=0 and 120>=line>=-195 and conference=o:conference and total<=10 and SG>1 and month>4 and 2008<=season

------------

OU

OVER: The Royals are 14-0-2 OU in not the first game of a series as a favorite off a road game in which they had more strikeouts than hits - since Aug 17, 2014.

team=Royals and F and p:A and SG > 1 and p:SO > p:hits and date>=20140817

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 113-68-7 OU +19.8% ROI this season.
(Marlins )

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (125-89-15 +11.3% ROI)
(Brewers, Mets, Nationals, Cardinals, Rangers)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Angels x2
Brewers x2
Rockies x2
Cardinals
Mets
Blue Jays
Astros

OU

Royals/Angels Over
Marlins/Braves Over
Padres/Brewers Over
Nationals/Mets Over x2
Cardinals/Orioles Over
Mariners/Rangers Over
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-18-17, 04:17 AM

Sunday Plays 6/18

»-Indians -133
»-Rays +100
»-Angels +101
»-Cardinals -108
___________________________

**FUqer** · 06-18-17, 06:31 PM

13 games on Sunday night this year, 8 of them had scores in the first inning, the last 3 that had scores in the first inning, both teams actually scored.

The Over is 8-2-3, Home team is 7-6.

10.1 avg rpg.

2.8 homers

teams that score first are 10-3

road teams 5-2 if score first, Over 6-1

----------------------------------------------

I'm actually leaning no score in first -115 and Under 8.5 +money and Red Sox ML and Altuve Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI's.

**FUqer** · 06-18-17, 07:03 PM

I'm going with no score in 1st inning for a whole $5.

**FUqer** · 06-19-17, 11:05 AM

Sunday Results 6/18

W - »-Indians -133
W - »-Rays +100
L - »-Angels +101
L - »-Cardinals -108
___________________________
Yesterday = 2-2 = -0.08
___________________________
Bankroll = 997 / 2000
___________________________

**FUqer** · 06-19-17, 11:09 AM

SDQL 6/19

ALL = Yesterday 5-7-1 (Total 316-257)
SU = Yesterday 3-4 (Total 172-131)
OU = Yesterday 2-3-1 (Total 144-126)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Marlins are 0-13 SU at home after a walk off loss.

team = Marlins and H and po:WOW and date >= 20040504

PLAY: The Cubs and Marlins (100-39 +24.1% ROI)

H and 4.8>=tA(runs)>=4.3 and 5.2>=(o:STDSERA)>=4.2 and o:conference=NL and 4.2>=(STDSERA)>=3.7 and conference=NL and 2007<=season and SG<4

FADE: The Athletics (19-45 -39.0% ROI)

H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1

PLAY: The Rays (104-55 +10.8% ROI)

HF and line<-130 and line>-160 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10

PLAY: The Rays (536-371 +10.4% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

------------

OU

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (126-92-16 +10.0% ROI)
(Orioles)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Rays x2
Cubs
Astros

OU

Indians/Orioles Over
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-19-17, 01:11 PM

Monday Plays 6/19

»-Pirates -120
»-Giants -128
»-Blue Jays -115

»-Mets/Dodgers Over 7 -108
»-Indians/Orioles Under 9 -113
___________________________

The Reds unfortunately may be a system play later if I'm around and the Tigers are creeping also. The Giants and Blue Jays travel worries me a bit but the pitching match-up and possible motivation is just too overwhelming, IMO. Giants, Blue Jays and Dodgers Over showing + value. Indians under is based on pitching match-up and some SDQL trends. The Pirates play is based mostly on the pitching match-up as they faced each other quite a lot.

The Pirates/Brewers total seems high, which makes me want to play the Over.

**FUqer** · 06-19-17, 04:53 PM

Tracking
__________________________________
RRL based on bookies totals of 9.5 or more
(23-33 25-31 SU)

Rangers +106 +194 = 88
Athletics +138 +255 = 117
Brewers +111 +213 = 102
Tigers +128 +192 = 64
__________________________________
RRL based on my totals of 9 or more
(26-34 28-32 SU)

Rangers
Athletics
Tigers
__________________________________
Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145
(10-2 for +11.68)

To be determined.

-------------------------------
Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing
(23-28 for +9.76)

To be determined.

-------------------------------
Suspect Lines (12-7)

Pirates/Brewers Over
__________________________________
Run Line Projection = 60%+ (30-25)

Dodgers -307 -143 = 164
Cubs -223 -108 = 115
-------------------------------
Run Line -1.5 diff projections (0-0)

Dodgers -307 -143 = 164
Blue Jays -115 +132 = 47
--------------------------------

Losing Streaks of 3 or more

(2017 = 133-130 +1.4% ROI 133-119 OU)

------------------------------ALL----------Since 2015----------TEAM

Reds -9 AD-----(11-29 -30.8%)---(2-6 -36.0%)-------(0-1)
Giants -6 AF---(26-24 -7.1%)----(6-3 +21.4%)-------(2-2)

____________________________

Winning Streaks of 3 or more

(2017 = 143-136 -2.2% ROI 137-131 OU)

------------------------------ALL----------Since 2015----------TEAM

Indians +5 AF-----(114-95 -6.4%)----(24-15 +6.6%)------(2-1)
Athletics +4 HD---(109-174 -15.5%)--(28-45 -18.5%)-----(3-4)
Dodgers +3 HF---(975-667 -0.9%)---(196-112 +6.6%)----(49-33)
_____________________________

**FUqer** · 06-19-17, 05:25 PM

A couple six teamers tonight for a little over a $1 to win a unit.

--------------------------
0.03 to win 1 unit

Astros -154
Indians -171
Pirates -118

Padres/Cubs Over 8 -119
Astros/Athletics Over 9.5 -103
Brewers/Pirates Over 9.5 -103

______________________________
0.02 to win 1 unit

Mariners -135
Giants -122

Red Sox/Royals Under 9.5 -103
Reds/Rays Under 9 -103
Blue Jays/Rangers Over 10.5 -103
Giants/Braves Under 9 -103
______________________________

**FUqer** · 06-20-17, 03:53 AM

Monday Results 6/19

W - »-Pirates -120
W - »-Blue Jays -115
L - »-Giants -128

W - »-Mets/Dodgers Over 7 -108
L - »-Indians/Orioles Under 9 -113
___________________________
3-2 = +0.54 (includes -0.05 from parlays)
___________________________
Bankroll = 1028 / 2000
___________________________

**FUqer** · 06-20-17, 03:58 AM

SDQL 6/20

ALL = Yesterday 3-1 (Total 319-258)
SU = Yesterday 2-1 (Total 174-132)
OU = Yesterday 1-0 (Total 145-126)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Blue Jays (82-47 +14.3% ROI)

A and -110>line>-165 and conference=o:conference and 5.7>=STDSERA>=5.2 and conference=AL

PLAY: The Orioles are 16-0 SU at home after a game as a home dog in which they allowed 12-plus hits.

team = Orioles and H and p:H and p

and po:hits>=12 and date >= 20130602

PLAY: The Indians (536-372 +10.3% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

PLAY: The Indians - Road Favorites on 6 game winning streaks are 22-7 since 2015.

streak=6 and AF and season>=2015

------------

OU

OVER: The Nationals are 20-4 OU since April 14th 2015 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after allowing 6+ runs on the road.

team = Nationals and -120 <= line <= 120 and 6 <= po:runs and p:A and date >= 20150414

OVER: The Nationals are 12-1-1 OU as a favorite after playing as a road favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead since Apr 25, 2015

team=Nationals and F and p:A and p:LF and p:BL > 0 and date>=20150425

UNDER: The Blue Jays are 1-14-1 OU in not the first game of a series off a game as a favorite in which they hit multiple home runs since Aug 30, 2016.

team=Blue Jays and SG > 1 and p:F and p:HR>1 and date>=20160830

OVER: Both teams off a day rest. (57-29-3 +25.8% ROI)
(Phillies/Cardinals, Rockies/D-Backs, Twins/White Sox, Yankees/Angels)

H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 114-70-7 OU +17.8% ROI this season.
(Cardinals)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (127-92-16 +10.3% ROI)
(Orioles, Dodgers, Cardinals, Reds)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Blue Jays
Indians

OU

Phillies/Cardinals Over x3
Nationals/Marlins Over x2
Blue Jays/Rangers Under
Rockies/D-Backs Over
Twins/White Sox Over
Yankees/Angels Over
Indians/Orioles Over
Mets/Dodgers Over
Reds/Rays Over
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-20-17, 05:32 AM

Tuesday Plays 6/20

»-Indians -138
»-Rockies -112
»-Athletics +107
»-Tigers +138
»-Royals +180
»-Padres +183

»-Giants/Braves Under 9 -101
»-Red Sox/Royals Under 8 -103
»-Astros/Athletics Over 9 -103
»-Reds/Rays Over 9 -103
»-Pirates/Brewers Under 9.5 -108
___________________________

**FUqer** · 06-20-17, 06:15 PM

The Reds should of been a system play but I already have a lot of plays today and I don't like Garrett at all. It looks like I made out pretty good on the prices last night.

**FUqer** · 06-21-17, 03:57 AM

Tuesday Results 6/20

W - »-Rockies -112
L - »-Tigers +138
L - »-Indians -138
L - »-Royals +180
L - »-Padres +183
L - »-Athletics +107

W - »-Reds/Rays Over 9 -103
W - »-Astros/Athletics Over 9 -103
P - »-Giants/Braves Under 9 -101
L - »-Pirates/Brewers Under 9.5 -108
L - »-Red Sox/Royals Under 8 -103
___________________________
Yesterday = 3-7-1 = -4.49
___________________________
Bankroll = 804 / 2000
___________________________

The curse continues, make that 0-27 in extra inning games for me now with the Tigers last night.
The Indians blew their 5-2 lead and lost.
The Rockies blew their lead late but regained it.
Royals, Padres, Athletics at least lost the normal way.

And those weren't half as unlucky as totals, I went 2-2-1, but I should've only lost one.
Giants and Braves was 2-0 until the 8th inning and I had to settle for a push.
The Pirates got 6 in the top of the 6th then they both combined for 4 runs after that to lose the total play by half a run.

I beat the closing lines at least 80% of the time and it doesn't matter for me. Nothing makes any damn sense in this sport, I'm beginning to hate baseball as much as NBA.

**FUqer** · 06-21-17, 04:01 AM

SDQL 6/21

ALL = Yesterday 6-4-1 (Total 325-262)
SU = Yesterday 0-2 (Total 174-134)
OU = Yesterday 6-2-1 (Total 151-128)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Orioles and Rockies (985-590 +11.8% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Pirates (2600 game sample, 10-5 L15 +8.1% ROI)

playoffs=0 and AD and p:W and division=o:division and 7.5<=total<=10.5 and day not in [Saturday,Sunday]

------------

OU

OVER: The Cardinals are 12-0 OU when Michael Wacha starts on the road when they lost in his last start since May 09, 2014.

team=Cardinals and starter=Michael Wacha and A and s:L and date>=20140509

OVER: The Twins are 11-0 OU after a game as a home favorite in which they scored in at least four separate innings since Apr 19, 2016.

team=Twins and p:HF and p:SII >= 4 and date>=20160419

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 114-71-7 OU +17.1% ROI this season.
(Mets, Indians, D-Backs, White Sox)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (129-93-17 +10.5% ROI)
(Dodgers, Rays, Reds)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Orioles
Rockies
Pirates

OU

White Sox/Twins Over x2
Mets/Dodgers Over x2
Reds/Rays Over x2
Cardinals/Phillies Over
Indians/Orioles Over
D-Backs/Rockies Over
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-21-17, 04:06 AM

Wednesday Plays 6/21

»-Pirates +114
»-Reds +126
»-D-Backs +133
»-White Sox +180

»-Nationals/Marlins Over 8 -103
»-Reds/Rays Over 9.5 -103
»-Blue Jays/Rangers Over 11 -103
»-D-Backs/Rockies Over 11.5 -108
___________________________

**FUqer** · 06-22-17, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Wednesday Plays 6/21

»-Pirates +114
»-Reds +126
»-D-Backs +133
»-White Sox +180

»-Nationals/Marlins Over 8 -103
»-Reds/Rays Over 9.5 -103
»-Blue Jays/Rangers Over 11 -103
»-D-Backs/Rockies Over 11.5 -108
___________________________

___________________________
Yesterday = 4-4 = +0.30
___________________________
Bankroll = 819 / 2000
___________________________

Sucked on sides again, I been picking up a few things on totals and it seems to be working well. I'm not going to change anything on side plays, dogs just haven't been biting the last few days, just 9-17 the last two days before tonight and their prolly going 6-9 tonight. I've been jumping around on tactics all season and that could be part of the problem.

And tonight was another example that beating the closing lines means jack shit, at least for me this season. I'm not betting for value by a long shot, but if I'm going to play a team, I want to try to get the best price. You would think when you take a team +126 and they close at -105, you were on the right side, but night after night they been losing. I beat the lines on 3 out of 4 side plays and the only winner was the one I lost against the closing line, the 3 that beat the closer. It's been one big ass backwards season.

It seems logic, models and stats and whose better doesn't mean as much as it should. Analyzing the lines, from sides, totals, first five, RRL, RL, TT, etc.. can give you hints of what the books are expecting. Don't get me wrong, research and capping is still needed to help find these discrepancies.

I kind of feel like sports betting is just one big reality show and it's all half scripted and to get a good idea of where the story line is heading, just study the script, which is all the lines provided by the bookies and the moves that follow.

**FUqer** · 06-22-17, 03:46 AM

Thursday Plays 6/22

»-White Sox -117
»-Brewers -109
»-D-Backs +102
___________________________

Waiting on Dodger Under to be released and want to see if price on D-Backs Over will come down on the 11.5 and on the fence with White Sox Over.

**FUqer** · 06-22-17, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday Plays 6/22

»-White Sox -117
»-Brewers -109
»-D-Backs +102
»-Mets +144

»-Giants/Braves Over 9 -105
___________________________

I added the Mets after finding out Wood won't be going for the Dodgers and backed off the Under.

I added the Braves Over as it's the only Over my model is projecting and it's 51-25 on Overs, it only projects a few a day at most, so I consider all of them and prolly should be playing them all.

The Over in D-Backs game hasn't came down any and the Over in Twins game is rose too much.

I studied the Ranger game pretty hard and lean Rangers but not enough yet to make a play.
I was real close to playing the Over in the Brewers game because I don't quite understand why it's that high for these two pitchers and given the series recent history of Unders.

**FUqer** · 06-22-17, 03:14 PM

The rain delay makes me want to play the Over in the Twins game even more, but can't pull the trigger.

I didn't post SDQL today just to see if anyone would miss it and ask about it and as predicted, I don't think anybody really cares, so not sure I will waste my time posting them or anything else besides my shit plays anymore, even though I still do them for myself every night.

Should've just gone with with the juice on the Over 11.5 in D-Backs game or just taken 12.

**BennyFang** · 06-22-17, 04:31 PM

I for one do like and appreciate the SQDL presentation but realize it's a good bit of work and time. BOL

**stevenash** · 06-22-17, 04:39 PM

You do good work in here.

**FUqer** · 06-22-17, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by BennyFang

I for one do like and appreciate the SQDL presentation but realize it's a good bit of work and time. BOL

It only takes me an extra 5-10 minutes to organize it and post it because I do it for myself anyway, but that's 10 mins I could be doing other stuff if not many are interested in it.

**FUqer** · 06-22-17, 05:15 PM

SDQL 6/22

ALL = Yesterday 4-5 (Total 329-267)
SU = Yesterday 0-3 (Total 174-137)
OU = Yesterday 4-2 (Total 155-130)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Diamondbacks (61-29 +39.2% ROI)

p:hits - po:hits >= 10 and A and day = Thursday and line <= 165

PLAY: The Marlins (150-156 +9.9 ROI)

p:runs<=3 and division!= o:division and (SG=1 or SG=3) and op:runs<=3 and H and rest<3 and line>=105 and month!=8 and 2006<=season and 10>=total>=6.5

FADE: The Pirates are 2-16 SU since Aug 16, 2014 on the road after a game as a road dog in which they lost by one run.

team=Pirates and A and p:AD and p:margin=-1 and date>=20140816

FADE: The Giants are 1-19 SU since August 1st 2014 as a dog of more than 130 in the last game of the series.team = Giants and line>130 and LGS and date >= 20140800

------------

OU

OVER: (D-Backs) Teams on the Road are 17-1 OU after scoring 15 or more runs their previous game since 04/22/16.

p:runs>=15 and A and date>=20160422

OVER: The Twins are 17-3 OU in the last game of a series off a game as a favorite in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.

team = Twins and SG = SGS and p:F and po:TLOB < p:TLOB and date >= 20140529

OVER: The Twins are 20-4 OU when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series.

team = Twins and line<=120 and p:walks>=5 and p:W and SG > 1 and date >= 20130903

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 116-73-7 OU +16.7% ROI this season.
(Mets, Indians, Blue Jays)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (132-93-17 +11.4% ROI)
(Dodgers, Mets, Angels)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

D-Backs
Marlins
Brewers
Braves

OU

Mets/Dodgers Over
White Sox/Twins Over
D-Backs/Rockies Over
Indians/Orioles Over
Blue Jays/Rangers Over
Angels/Yankees Over
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-23-17, 01:51 AM

Thursday Results 6/22

W - »-White Sox -117
W - »-Brewers -109
W - »-D-Backs +102
L - »-Mets +144

W - »-Giants/Braves Over 9 -105
___________________________
Yesterday = 4-1 = +3.02
___________________________
Bankroll = 970 / 2000
___________________________

**RisingDough** · 06-23-17, 03:41 AM

Keep it up

**FUqer** · 06-23-17, 03:49 AM

Friday Plays 6/23

»-Blue Jays -124

»-Mets/Giants Over 8.5 -108
»-Twins/Indians Under 10 -113
___________________________

For sides I'm on the fence with the Cubs (SDQL) and White Sox (PUBLIC), and the Orioles are my dark horse for the day.

For totals, I like the Under in the Tigers/Padres but I think it might go from 7.5 to 8 by the time it starts. I also like the Dodgers TT Over.

**FUqer** · 06-23-17, 03:54 AM

Originally posted by RisingDough

Keep it up

That's been the problem, not too bad this week aside from one day I got screwed pretty bad, but that's nothing new this season.

**FUqer** · 06-23-17, 04:00 AM

SDQL 6/23

ALL = Yesterday 7-3 (Total 336-270)
SU = Yesterday 3-1 (Total 177-138)
OU = Yesterday 4-2 (Total 159-132)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The White Sox (44-20 +26.7% ROI)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

PLAY: The White Sox (50-32 +15.3% ROI)

HF and line<-105 and line>-120 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10

PLAY: The Marlins (102-39 +24.7 ROI)

H and 4.8>=tA(runs)>=4.3 and 5.2>=(o:STDSERA)>=4.2 and o:conference=NL and 4.2>=(STDSERA)>=3.7 and conference=NL and 2007<=season and SG<4

PLAY: The Mets (269-248 +20.3% ROI)

AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2

FADE: The Phillies are 1-24 SU since May 02, 2016 off a game as a dog in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits.

team = Phillies and p

and po:hits <= 6 and date >= 20160502

PLAY: The Red Sox are 20-1 SU as a favorite in the first game of a series after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks.

team = Red Sox and F and 5 <= po:walks and p:L and SG = 1 and date >= 20120824

PLAY: The Astros are 19-0 RL as a dog in the first game of a road series after a road game in which they hit more home runs than their opponent.

team=Astros and AD and p:A and FGS and p:HR>po:HR and date>=20120907

------------

OU

UNDER: Tigers/Padres (161-81-7 +26.3%)

STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3

UNDER: The Padres are 2-23 OU in the first game of a series after a road win in which their hit-per-run ratio was at least 2.4 and they did not draw more than five walks.

team = Padres and p:HPR>=2.4 and p:W and p:A and SG = 1 and p:walks<=5

UNDER: Athletics/White Sox (38-23-3 +18.9%)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

OVER: The Braves are 19-4 OU at home after they allowed 12-plus hits.

team = Braves and H and 12 <= po:hits and date >= 20160612

OVER: The Nationals are 13-1-1 OU as a favorite after playing as a road favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead since Apr 25, 2015

team=Nationals and F and p:A and p:LF and p:BL > 0 and date>=20150425

OVER: is 59-31-3 +24.3% ROI when both teams are off one day rest this season.
(Reds/Nationals)

H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 116-73-7 OU +16.7% ROI this season.
(Rangers, Angels, Brewers, Pirates, Rockies, Tigers)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (135-93-17 +12.4% ROI)
(Dodgers, Mets, Angels, Reds, Yankees, Angels)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

White Sox
Marlins
Mets
D-Backs
Red Sox

OU

Tigers/Padres Under
Athletics/White Sox Under
Brewers/Braves Over
Reds/Nationals Over
Rangers/Yankees Over
Angels/Red Sox Over
Pirates/Cardinals Over
Rockies/Dodgers Over
Mets/Giants Over
Phillies/D-Backs Over

___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-23-17, 04:56 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 6/23

»-Blue Jays -124
»-White Sox -107

»-Mets/Giants Over 8.5 -108
»-Twins/Indians Under 10 -113
___________________________

Added White Sox.

**FUqer** · 06-23-17, 06:25 AM

Maybe Rangers and Pirates later, cooled off on Cubs and Dodgers TT Over.

The Reds new pitcher doesn't seem bad but a lot of unknowns and he's going against Strasburg. The Over with both teams off rest has been hot this season.

The Cubs bats are starting to wake up a little and Lackey may be extra motivated to get revenge to an earlier loss to Urena in Chicago. I don't have a good feel for the total.

Both pitchers for Brewers and Braves have been pitching well lately and the Brewers are a good Road team but are heavily backed by the public at this point, the Under looks decent to me.

Mark Leiter Jr should be starting for the Phillies and he has to face the red hot D-Backs bats. I haven't seen a line yet, but I'm projecting around -190 and a total set at about 10.5.

Two hot pitchers going at it for the Rockies and Dodgers. Freeland is already 2-0 vs the Dodgers in team starts and Wood has won his last 7 team starts and has been stingy with the runs in those games. He's also shut out the Rockies this season in the lone time he's faced them. The way the line is set, seems like Dodgers are gonna put it on them as the Rockies bullpen has faded in the last 2 weeks. I was originally interested in the Over as a contrarian play, then thought about the Dodgers TT Over, I'm not that interested right now.

The Giants have to travel back home from the East Coast, while the Mets are already in Californistan, but Blach has pitched a lot better at Home, aside from his last start when the red hot Royals got to him a bit. I played the Over in this one as a model and SDQL play and part of something new I been using the last few days for totals.

If I get time later I'll go through my thoughts on the rest of games, I got to hit the DMV up this morning.

**BennyFang** · 06-23-17, 01:11 PM

Brewers TT over might be worth consideration. Braves fan in ATL here, Don't have the stats handy but seems like it's Folty's MO to fade in the middle innings and the bullpen is worn down after an 11 inning game and a slugfest last night. Hot & very humid here too.

**FUqer** · 06-23-17, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by BennyFang

Brewers TT over might be worth consideration. Braves fan in ATL here, Don't have the stats handy but seems like it's Folty's MO to fade in the middle innings and the bullpen is worn down after an 11 inning game and a slugfest last night. Hot & very humid here too.

I used to live in GA, on Tybee Island, humid as hell down there. I just added 4 more plays though, so I'm a little heavy today as it is, or I would consider it, thanks.

**FUqer** · 06-23-17, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 6/23

»-Blue Jays -124
»-White Sox -107
»-Rangers +108
»-Orioles +189

»-Mets/Giants Over 8.5 -108
»-Twins/Indians Under 10 -113
»-Tigers/Padres Under 8 -103

»-Dodgers TT Over 4.5 -110

___________________________

For sides I'm on the fence with the Cubs (SDQL) and White Sox (PUBLIC), and the Orioles are my dark horse for the day.

For totals, I like the Under in the Tigers/Padres but I think it might go from 7.5 to 8 by the time it starts. I also like the Dodgers TT Over.

I added 4 more plays. The price on the Dodgers TT wasn't as bad as I thought it might be, so I went ahead with it, they been on a tear lately and the Rockies bullpen is showing some signs of fatigue.

I waited and was able to get the line and price I wanted on the Padres Under.

The Orioles were hard to pass at that price, considering how these pitchers have fared vs their opponent, hopefully Jimenez can keep it together today.

The Rangers aren't in the best spot travel wise, but the pitching advantage and hotter bats should be able to take care of the struggling Yankees.

**FUqer** · 06-23-17, 05:41 PM

I've now tracked 80 games for dogs RRL in games with totals of 9.5 or higher. It was highly profitable until last week and it's been on a bad run this last week or so aside from yesterday. But what's most interesting to me is the RRL record is 30-50, while the SU record is 33-47. So only 3 times out of 33 did the dog not win by 2 or more. When I researched it last month I found they won by 2 or more at a 79% rate in 2016. I should consider taking dogs -1 or -1.5 when I play them if the total is 9.5 or higher. People might say it's greedy, but I'd say it's smart.