MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

**FUqer** · 06-08-17, 10:58 AM

I gotta go, so no total plays, I might be back before 7, but might also be intoxicated, so I'll just post my total projections. Marlins and Twins also interested me today on sides.

STL U9 -103 - (4.0-3.6 = 7.6) - 2.4
SEA O9 -118 - (4.3-6.3 = 10.6) - 1.6
PHI U10 -113 - (4.7-4.2 = 8.9) - 1.1
HOU U9 -103 - (5.2-3.0 = 8.2) - 0.8
DET U8.5 -118 - (3.3-4.5 = 7.8) - 0.7
BOS U7.5 -108 - (3.7-3.3 = 7.0) - 0.5
ARI U9.5 -113 - (4.3-4.7 = 9.0) - 0.5
BAL O9.5 +102 - (5.1-4.8 = 9.9) - 0.4
SF O8.5 -118 - (4.6-4.1 = 8.7) - 0.2
TB O8 -103 - (3.8-4.4 = 8.2) - 0.2
PIT U8.5 -103 - (3.9-4.4 = 8.3) - 0.2

**FUqer** · 06-09-17, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday Plays 6/8

»-Padres +127
»-Phillies +106
»-Orioles +132
»-Yankees -117
_________________________

Yesterday = 1-3 = -2.00
___________________________
June = 15-18 for -2.46
S/U = 13-10 for +4.06
O/U = 2-4 for -2.34
R/L = 0-4 for -4.18
---------------
Dogs = 8-8 for +1.22
Favs = 5-2 for +2.84
----------------
Over = 1-3 for -2.34
Under = 1-1 for +0.00
___________________________
Not sure how everything went down, I only saw the end results and they weren't good. I wished I would of played the Twins and Marlins and Over in Brewers game, but I got back and passed out.

**FUqer** · 06-09-17, 10:29 AM

SDQL 6/9

ALL = Yesterday 3-7 (Total 251-207)
SU = Yesterday 2-3 (Total 148-107)
OU = Yesterday 1-4 (Total 103-100)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Nationals (981-585 +12.0% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Nationals are 14-1 SU since Sep 11, 2016 as a favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they scored first.

team=Nationals and F and p:HF and p:SF>0 and date>=20160911

FADE: The Rangers are 2-17 SU as a road dog after a game in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.

team = Rangers and AD and po:TLOB < p:TLOB and date >= 20160702

PLAY: The Giants (41-17 (+30.1% ROI)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

PLAY: The Cubs are 28-0 SU since Jul 27, 2015 as a home 140+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had 6 or fewer hits.

team=Cubs and HF and p:F and line <=-140 and p:hits<=6 and date>=20150727

PLAY: The Indians are 11-0 SU since Jun 22, 2013 when Corey Kluber starts as a home favorite when they won in his last start in which he had a WHIP of less than 1.

team=Indians and HF and starter=Corey Kluber and s:W and s:SWHIP < 1 and date>=20130622

PLAY: The Red Sox are 19-1 SU as a favorite in the first game of a series after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks.

team = Red Sox and F and 5 <= po:walks and p:L and SG = 1 and date >= 20120824

FADE: The Phillies are 1-20 SU since Sep 11, 2016 on the road after their opponent scored first last game.

team=Phillies and A and po:SF>0 and date>=20160911

------------

OU

OVER: The Brewers are 21-1 OU as a dog after a home loss in which they left more than 16 men on base and scored more than one run.

team=Brewers and D and p:LOB>16 and p:HL and p:runs>1 and date>=20090900

UNDER: Giants/Twins (36-20-2 (+22.8% ROI)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

UNDER: The Giants are 1-13 OU in the first game of a series when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em after a game in which they left 18+ men on base.

team = Giants and FGS and -120 <= line <= 120 and 18 <= p:LOB and date >= 20140620

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 95-58-6 OU +18.0% ROI this season.
(Blue Jays, Rangers, Athletics)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

________________

SU

Nationals
Giants
Cubs
Indians
Red Sox
Cardinals

OU

Brewers/D-Backs Over
Twins/Giants Under
Blue Jays/Mariners Over
Rangers/Nationals Over
Athletics/Rays Over
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-09-17, 10:42 AM

Friday Plays 6/9

»-Blue Jays -123
»-Giants -111
---------------------------
Considering Braves and Pirates.

**FUqer** · 06-09-17, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 6/9

»-Blue Jays -123
»-Giants -111

»-Dodgers TT Over 4½ -105
»-Reds TT Over 3½ +105
»-Mets TT Over 5 -105
---------------------------

Added some team totals, passing on Braves and Pirates.

**2daBank** · 06-09-17, 11:31 AM

Like that cincy team total. Hill either dealing w another blister or has just lost it, none his pitches look nearly as good as years past.

**FUqer** · 06-09-17, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 6/9

»-Blue Jays -123
»-Giants -111
»-Athletics +118

»-Dodgers TT Over 4½ -105
»-Reds TT Over 3½ +105
»-Mets TT Over 5 -105
---------------------------

Added Athletics.

**FUqer** · 06-09-17, 11:48 AM

Not making the cut..

Orioles
Tigers
Angels

LAA/HOU - U8.5 -103
MIL/ARI - U9.5 -108
KC/SD - O8 -103
MIN/SF - O8 -103

**FUqer** · 06-09-17, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 6/9

»-Blue Jays -123
»-Giants -111
»-Athletics +118
»-Angels +163
»-Tigers +123

»-Dodgers TT Over 4½ -105
»-Reds TT Over 3½ +105
»-Mets TT Over 5 -105
---------------------------

Added the Angels and Tigers. I was on the fence about both and the lines are a little suspicious to me. They might not be worth a play on their own, but sometimes I like to pair dogs up like this and at least hope for a split. The Orioles and Brewers are also now close to being a system play, if I'm around later, too close to make a guess right now. I'm not getting the best prices right now, but I'm making plays a littler later in the day and some are based on line and public backing systems, so it's harder to get the best prices in those. Anyway not gonna fret over $5 difference right now as long as it wins. Good Luck All!

**FUqer** · 06-09-17, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 6/9

»-Blue Jays -123
»-Giants -111
»-Athletics +118
»-Angels +163
»-Tigers +123
»-Padres -112

»-Dodgers TT Over 4½ -105
»-Reds TT Over 3½ +105
»-Mets TT Over 5 -105
---------------------------

Added the Padres. Chacin has been a different pitcher in his home park this season and I expect Skoglund who is making his first road start in the majors to struggle a big. The Royals are traveling out West and that might make their already weak bats even weaker. I already have more plays than I would like, so that's just about it for the night.

**FUqer** · 06-09-17, 03:43 PM

Looking at tomorrow's card, just seeing Matz is scheduled to start for the Mets, I can't wait for that. Berrios/Samardzija going against each other and Stroman/Miranda seem like Unders.

**2daBank** · 06-09-17, 03:54 PM

That cool berrios/shark could def be a epic pitching duel w a ton of strike outs!

**FUqer** · 06-09-17, 08:32 PM

Saturday Plays 6/10

»-Athletics +102 (Game #2 Manaea/Andriese)
»-Marlins -117
________________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-10-17, 12:23 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 6/9

»-Blue Jays -123
»-Giants -111
»-Athletics +118
»-Angels +163
»-Tigers +123
»-Padres -112

»-Dodgers TT Over 4½ -105
»-Reds TT Over 3½ +105
»-Mets TT Over 5 -105
---------------------------

_________________________
Yesterday = 3-6 = -2.76
___________________________
June = 18-24 for -5.22
S/U = 15-14 for +2.35
O/U = 3-6 for -3.39
R/L = 0-4 for -4.18
---------------
Dogs = 9-10 for +0.85
Favs = 6-4 for +1.50
----------------
Overs = 2-5 for -3.39
Unders = 1-1 for +0.00
___________________________

**FUqer** · 06-10-17, 08:58 AM

SDQL 6/10

ALL = Yesterday 6-5 (Total 257-212)
SU = Yesterday 3-3 (Total 151-110)
OU = Yesterday 3-2 (Total 106-102)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Pirates (100-146 -21.7% ROI)

-140<=line<=120 and p:margin<=-4 and pp:margin<=-4 and op:runs>=8 and H and SG<4 and total<11

PLAY: The Twins (65-61 (+18.3% ROI)

o:conference = NL and conference = AL and AD and month < 8 and 9.5 >= total >= 7 and p:W and series game=2

PLAY: The Rays (534-368 +10.6 ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

FADE: The Rangers are 3-17 SU as a road dog after a game in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.

team = Rangers and AD and po:TLOB < p:TLOB and date >= 20160702

------------

OU

OVER: The Royals are 13-0-2 OU (3.00 ppg) in not the first game of a series as a favorite off a road game in which they had more strikeouts than hits - since Aug 17, 2014.

team=Royals and F and p:A and SG > 1 and p:SO > p:hits and date>=20140817

UNDER: Twins/Giants (458-230-36 +25.4% ROI)

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

UNDER: Jeff Samardzija is 5-20-1 OU since 7/24/16.

starter=Jeff Samardzija and date>=20160724

OVER: The Pirates are 14-1-1 OU as a home dog when playing a team that has a better record since Jun 26, 2016.

team=Pirates and HD and WP < o:WP and date>=20160626

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 96-60-6 OU +17.0% ROI this season.
(Blue Jays, Marlins, Athletics GM #2)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

________________

SU

Marlins
Twins
Rays (Game #1)
Nationals

OU

Royals/Padres Over
Twins/Giants Under
Marlins/Pirates Over
Blue Jays/Mariners Over
Athletics/Rays Over (Game #2)
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-10-17, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Saturday Plays 6/10

»-Athletics +102 (Game #2 Manaea/Andriese)
»-Marlins -117
»-Royals -116
»-Twins FF +130
»-Mariners FF +105

»-Tigers/Red Sox Under 9 +102
»-Royals/Padres Over 8.5 +102
»-Twins/Giants FF Under 4 -115
________________________________________

Additions, no time to explain picks today. Good Luck!

**FUqer** · 06-10-17, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Saturday Plays 6/10

»-Athletics +102 (Game #2 Manaea/Andriese)
»-Marlins -117
»-Royals -116
»-Twins FF +130
»-Mariners FF +105
»-Braves +105 (Game #1 Gsellman/Newcomb)

»-Tigers/Red Sox Under 9 +102
»-Royals/Padres Over 8.5 +102
»-Twins/Giants FF Under 4 -115
________________________________________

Added Braves Game #1.

**FUqer** · 06-10-17, 10:56 PM

Saturday Plays 6/10

W - »-Athletics +102 (Game #2 Manaea/Andriese)
W - »-Royals -116
W - »-Twins FF +130
L - »-Braves +105 (Game #1 Gsellman/Newcomb)
L - »-Marlins -117
L - »-Mariners FF +105
W - »-Royals/Padres Over 8.5 +102
L - »-Twins/Giants FF Under 4 -115
L - »-Tigers/Red Sox Under 9 +102
_________________________
Yesterday = 4-5 = -0.98
___________________________
June = 22-29 for -6.20
S/U = 18-17 for +2.50
O/U = 4-8 for -4.52
R/L = 0-4 for -4.18
---------------
Dogs = 11-12 for +1.17
Favs = 7-5 for +1.33
----------------
Overs = 3-5 for -2.37
Unders = 1-3 for -2.15
___________________________

Twins and Giants 1-1 into the 5th inning and then score 3 runs and don't score afterwards, I thought I was being smart by staying away from twins bullpen.

Mariners lead 1-0 into the 4th. Miranda gives up 1 hit thru 5 innings, but gives up two runs and loses 2-1 FF, Mariners will prolly win the game now.

Marlins jump out 3-0 in 1st inning, lead 6-4 until bottom of 7th and give up 3 runs and lose by 1.

Red Sox under looking good until they plate 8 runs in their last two innings, not real mad about that but damn.

Newcomb looked as good as I thought for the Braves, but they couldn't get a hold of Gsellman?

That's been my kind of luck for the season, and this doesn't seem that bad as some days. I'm not a superstitious person but FML. I also gotta be 0-20 in extra inning games. I'm about to sacrifice a chicken. I may not be an expert capper, but I don't think I'm as bad as my results have been. It takes a lot to frustrate me, but I'm about there.

**FUqer** · 06-10-17, 10:58 PM

Sunday Plays 6/11

Rockies +170
Mariners RL +130
Braves -114
Phillies +141
Brewers +150
Athletics +177

_____________________

The Rockies are on a roll and face off against Arrieta who is steadily declining. Although his home numbers have been much better than his road, his velocity has dropped off the past two seasons, especially this season and he has given up 1.44 HR/9 this season. Usually a ground ball pitcher, it seems he is having some trouble locating and he has been paying the price. That won't be good against the Rockies offense with the wind possibly blowing out. I think Senzatela can hold his own in this match-up and that is a nice price. The Cubs do have to be pretty motivated though, could be high scoring.

The Mariners got Paxton on the mound and he's been great so far going against a team that has struggled vs lefties with a pitcher in Happ who hasn't quit found his groove yet. I'm hoping my recent RL bad luck changes, I'm usually pretty decent at them.

The Braves will be looking to rebound from yesterday's double loss, with Garcia the lefty on the mound and the Mets have struggled vs lefties this year, they didn't do too great vs the newbie yesterday and Garcia is a veteran going up against Lugo making his 1st start off the DL. Garcia hasn't fared to well vs the Braves in the win column, but he has received poor run support. Lugo has gotten off to a fast start in the Majors, winning his last 7 team starts, but this will be his first start this year and he has received great run support in his starts.

The Phillies are sending out Nola who is fresh off a strong 8 inning 1 run, 1 walk, performance in his last start. Nola shut out the Cardinals last season in St.Louis. Wainwright struggled his first 7 starts then settled down for four starts but then got lit up his last start in Cincinnati for 9 runs in 3.2 IP. He has had success at Home vs the Phillies and both he and his team should be motivated after their recent run. It should be a close one, but I give a slight edge to the Phillies and worth the price. I also feel like there is something else I'm forgetting to mention about why I like this game, but can't think of it at the moment.

The Brewers send out Chase Anderson who has now went at least 7 innings in his last 3 games and gave up 0 runs. He has increased his velocity enough to get by more hitters and avoid giving up homers, which he will need to do vs the D-Backs. Rays for the D-Backs has been great also, having only given up 1 run in his last 30.3 innings. The problem is he has been a different pitcher at Home and the Brewers hit lefties pretty good.

The Athletics send out Jesse Hahn who has pitched much better on the Road this season and has only given up one homer all season and the Rays live by the long ball. Meanwhile the Rays send their ace Archer to the mound who has had a outstanding season, but he does give up some homers, which is the Athletics strength. And there is a lot of pressure on Archer to go deep into the game, because their bullpen got worked over yesterday during the double header. Ramirez only last 5 innings the first game and it went extra innings and they used 6 different relievers. In the second game Andriese last just one inning and the bull pen had to take over for the rest. I couldn't ignore that price given their bullpen situation and Hahn's ability to keep the ball in the park.

**FUqer** · 06-11-17, 02:45 AM

SDQL 6/11

ALL = Yesterday 6-3 (Total 263-215)
SU = Yesterday 2-2 (Total 153-112)
OU = Yesterday 4-1 (Total 110-103)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The White Sox are 0-23 SU as a 155+ dog after a game in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.

team = White Sox and line>155 and po:LOB < 10 and season >= 2011

FADE: The Tigers are 0-16 SU after a game as a road dog in which JD Martinez was hitless in at least three at bats

team = Tigers and p:AD and JD Martinez

:at bats>=3 and JD Martinez

:hits = 0 and date >= 20150829

FADE: Cubs and Tigers (422-557 -12.8% ROI)

p:margin=-8

PLAY: The Cubs are 28-1 SU since Jul 27, 2015 as a home 140+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had 6 or fewer hits.

team=Cubs and HF and p:F and line <=-140 and p:hits<=6 and date>=20150727

FADE: The Braves are 0-12 SU since Jul 19, 2015 in the last game of a series at home after they had 6 or fewer hits last game.

team=Braves and H and LGS and p:hits<=6 and date>=20150719

FADE: The Rays (234-238 -14.1% ROI)

p:margin =1 and pp:margin=1 and F and line>-210 and month!=5 and conference=o:conference

FADE: The Phillies are 1-22 SU since May 02, 2016 off a game as a dog in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits.

team = Phillies and p

and po:hits <= 6 and date >= 20160502

FADE: The Phillies were 1-16 SU as a 130-plus dog after they had six or fewer hits and it is not a series opener.

team = Phillies and SG > 1 and line>=130 and p:hits <= 6 and season >= 2016

FADE: The Phillies are 1-21 SU since Sep 11, 2016 on the road after their opponent scored first last game.

team=Phillies and A and po:SF>0 and date>=20160911

PLAY: The Pirates are 20-4 SU since July 20th, 2014 as a favorite in the last game of a series after a win in which they trailed.

team = Pirates and F and LGS and po:BL > 0 and p:W and date >= 20140720

------------

OU

UNDER: The Reds are 0-15 OU in the last game of a series as a road dog by more than 155 after a game in which they struck out at least ten times.

team = Reds and LGS and A and line>155 and p:SO >= 10 and date >= 20040900

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 98-61-6 OU +17.0% ROI this season.
(Athletics, Marlins, Rockies)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (99-73-13 +9.6% ROI)
(Padres, Rays, Athletics, Yankees)

________________

SU

Indians
Red Sox
Mets
Athletics
Cardinals
Pirates

OU

Reds/Dodgers Under
Athletics/Rays Over
Marlins/Pirates Over
Rockies/Cubs Over
Royals/Padres Over
Orioles/Yankees Over
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-11-17, 06:52 PM

Come home from the lake and check scoreboard for the first time all day and see this garbage. I see the Athletics blew a 3 run lead and even though I smashed the closing line on the Braves and Phillies, they both lose. Do I suck this bad?

Any way I'm playing the Tigers, it's a system play for me.

Tigers +144

**FUqer** · 06-12-17, 02:05 AM

Sunday Results 6/11

L - Rockies +170
L - Athletics +177
L - Mariners RL +130
L - Brewers +150
L - Braves -114
L - Phillies +141
W - Tigers +144
_________________________
Yesterday = 1-6 = -4.70
___________________________
June = 23-35 for -10.90
S/U = 19-22 for -1.20
O/U = 4-8 for -4.52
R/L = 0-5 for -5.18
---------------
Dogs = 12-16 for -1.39
Favs = 7-6 for +0.19
----------------
Overs = 3-5 for -2.37
Unders = 1-3 for -2.15
___________________________

The Rockies game worried me when I saw the line going, but for me it seems like it doesn't matter if I beat the closing line or not, I still lose, like with the Braves and Phillies who I got really good prices on, both lost.

The Phillies jumped out to a 2-0 lead, but of course lose. No lead is safe on any of my plays, but teams seems to come back from 3 or 4 runs daily on me. The Athletics of course blow a 3 run lead. I thought for sure the Tigers was going to blow their 3-0 lead when it was 3-2 in the 4th bases loaded with no outs and they don't score any. Luckily they got a grand slam the next inning to make up for it.

And of course I don't play any totals and model goes 11-4. Model now at 71-51 with Overs at 33-17, but yet, not when I play them!

I just can't win this season. I think you make your own karma, but damn I ain't smacked nobody's grandma or nothing, FFS. I wanted to quit last night, but I'll keep going until this $2 grand is gone.

**FUqer** · 06-12-17, 02:44 AM

SDQL 6/12

ALL = Yesterday 8-4 (Total 271-219)
SU = Yesterday 4-2 (Total 157-114)
OU = Yesterday 4-2 (Total 114-105)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Braves are 0-21 SU as a 170+ dog off a home loss in which they never led.

team = Braves and line>=170 and p:H and p:BL = 0 and p:L and date >= 20060617

FADE: The Braves are 0-19 SU & RL as a 170+ dog off a home game in which they had more strikeouts than hits

team = Braves and 170 <= line and p:H and p:SO > p:hits and date >= 20100705

PLAY - The Nationals are 14-2 SU since Sep 11, 2016 as a favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they scored first.

team=Nationals and F and p:HF and p:SF>0 and date>=20160911

------------

OU

UNDER: The Angels are 0-14 OU as a home dog after a game in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.

team = Angels and HD and p:TLOB < 5 and date >= 20140622

OVER: The Braves and Nationals are 15-4 O/U last 19 meetings.

team=Braves and o:team=Nationals and date>=20160414

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 100-62-6 OU +17.4% ROI this season.
(Rockies, Rangers, Braves, Orioles)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (103-73-13 +11.3% ROI)
(Padres, Reds, Orioles, Yankees)
________________

SU

Nationals

OU Braves/Nationals Over
Rockies/Pirates Over
Rangers/Astros Over
Orioles/White Sox Over
Reds/Padres Over
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-12-17, 02:48 AM

Monday Plays 6/12

»-White Sox +107
»-Rockies +131
»-Mariners +114

»-Reds/Padres Over 9 +105
________________________

**FUqer** · 06-12-17, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Monday Plays 6/12

»-White Sox +107
»-Rockies +131
»-Mariners +114

»-Reds/Padres Over 9 +105
________________________

Yesterday = 3-1 = +2.26
___________________________
June = 26-36 for -8.64
S/U = 21-23 for +0.01
O/U = 5-8 for -3.47
R/L = 0-5 for -5.18
---------------
Dogs = 14-17 for -0.18
Favs = 7-6 for +0.19
----------------
Overs = 4-5 for -1.32
Unders = 1-3 for -2.15
___________________________

**FUqer** · 06-12-17, 11:11 PM

Fell for the trap with the Rockies and learned dogs can be just as square. I'm not falling for the D-Backs trap with Greinke only -118 vs Buck Farmer. Greinke could have a nagging injury and Buck Farmer has looked like Cy Young all of a sudden, it's Tigers or nothing for me.

I think the Brewers will get one of those double header games tomorrow and both prolly go over.

I'm still not trusting Cole enough or I would like the Pirates.
Maybe the Phillies. Possible system play with Rays and Brewers Game #1.

I think the Rays game goes Under, Faria seems pretty decent.

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 10:27 AM

SDQL 6/13

ALL = Yesterday 3-2-1 (Total 274-221)
SU = Yesterday 0-1 (Total 157-115)
OU = Yesterday 3-1-1 (Total 117-106)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Red Sox are 20-0 SU as a favorite by more than 190 vs a team that has lost at least their last four games and it is not a series opener.

team = Red Sox and SG > 1 and line<-190 and o:streak <= -4 and season >= 2005

PLAY: The Mariners (536-368 +10.7% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

FADE: The Twins (101-146 -21.2% ROI)

-140<=line<=120 and p:margin<=-4 and pp:margin<=-4 and op:runs>=8 and H and SG<4 and total<11

FADE: The Twins 0-12 SU at Home since 4/24/16 after losing their previous 2 games

team=Twins and streak=-2 and H and date>=20160424

PLAY: The Indians are 11-0 SU since May 27, 2015 at home vs a team that has won at least their last four games

team=Indians and H and o:streak>=4 and date>=20150527

PLAY: The Marlins (981-586 +11.9% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Yankees (21-5 +43.1% ROI)

streak=6 and AF and season>=2015

------------

OU

OVER: The Red Sox are 10-0 OU when David Price starts as a 150+ favorite when their opponent is averaging more than seven strike outs a game

team = Red Sox and starter = David Price and line<=-150 and oA(SO)>=7 and date >= 20160723

OVER: The Braves and Nationals are 16-4 OU their last 20 meetings.

team=Braves and o:team=Nationals and date>=20160414

OVER: Teams both off a day rest this season. (52-26 +26.2% ROI)
(Rays/Blue Jays, Cardinals/Brewers, Giants/Royals, Indians/Dodgers, Marlins/Athletics, Tigers/D-Backs)

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 103-63-6 OU +18.0% ROI this season.
(Yankees, D-Backs, Brewers GM #2)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Over (106-74-13 +12.0% ROI)
(Padres, Reds, Orioles, Rays, Dodgers, Athletics, Red Sox)

________________

SU

Red Sox
Mariners x3
Indians
Marlins

Yankees

OU

Phillies/Red Sox Over x2
Braves/Nationals Over
Cardinals/Brewers Over Game #1
Cardinals/Brewers Over Game #2
Giants/Royals Over
Indians/Dodgers Over x2
Athletics/Marlins Over x2
Tigers/D-Backs Over x2
Yankees/Angels Over
Reds/Padres Over x2
Orioles/White Sox Over
Rays/Blue Jays Over x2
___________________________________

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 11:14 AM

Tuesday Plays 6/13

»-Brewers +145 Woodruff/Lynn
»-Brewers +114 Nelson/Gonzales

»-Reds/Padres Over 8 -108
»-Athletics/Marlins Over 9 -118
____________________________

Still looking at Mariners and Rays. No way am I falling for the D-Backs today, prolly should take the Tigers, but I'll pass, I think the books like to throw people off once in awhile with decoys, they know what people look for, especially a day after the Rockies trap. I'm also on the fence about the Over in the Royals/Giants game. I do kinda like the Athletics, but passing for now.

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 11:50 AM

Tuesday's Projections

@BOS -187 U9.5 (7.5) (-2.0)
BAL@ -105 U10.5 (9.0) (-1.5)
LAD@ -162 U8 (6.3) (-1.2)
@WAS -151 U10 (9.1) (-0.9)
CHC@ -120 U8.5 (7.7) (-0.8)
@PIT -110 U9 (8.2) (-0.8)
@MIN -106 U11 (10.3) (-0.7)
CIN@ -110 O8 (8.6) (+0.6)
@MIA -129 O9 (9.6) (+0.6)
@TOR -148 U8.5 (7.9) (-0.6)
@SF -120 O7.5 (8.0) (+0.5)
ARI@ -158 U9 (8.5) (-0.5)
NYY@ -119 U8.5 (8.1) (-0.4)
@HOU -164 O9 (9.4) (+0.4)
@STL +109 O9 (9.4) (+0.4) #2
@STL -135 U9 (8.8) (-0.2) #1

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 12:05 PM

Tracking 6/13
__________________________________
RRL based on bookies totals of 9.5 or more
(16-17 18-15 SU)

Phillies SU +222 RRL +323
White Sox SU +103 RRL +189
Braves SU +188 RRL +271
Mariners SU +106 RRL +151
Athletics SU +110 RRL +157
__________________________________
RRL based on my totals of 9 or more
(19-20 21-18 SU)

White Sox SU +103 RRL +189
Braves SU +188 RRL +271
Mariners SU +106 RRL +151
Athletics SU +110 RRL +157
Rangers SU +166 RRL +254
Brewers SU +146 RRL +218 #1
Brewers SU +114 RRL +171 #2
__________________________________
Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145
(8-1 for +9.83)

To be determined.
-------------------------------
Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing
(16-19 for +7.17)

To be determined.
-------------------------------
RRL dogs @ Col ( 2-3)

-------------------------------
Suspect Lines
(12-6)

Tigers
__________________________________
Run Line Projection = 60%+
(18-16)

ARI SU -108 RL +147
WAS SU -208 RL -113
HOU SU -180 RL +117
LAD SU -161 RL +112
BOS SU -247 RL -128
-------------------------------

Call it greedy if you want but I'm about to consider taking dogs RRL in games with high totals, cuz as you can see by my tracking this season and earlier research where I back tested it, when they win, they win by 2 or more pretty frequently, and by paying attention to the contrast in ML and RRL prices, you can narrow it down even more and see what favorites the books aren't trusting as much. If I picked today soley on that, I would go with the Orioles, Mariners and Athletics.

One of the very first systems I ever used is still doing very well, especially since I narrowed it down to Road Dogs with less than 30% backing and between +130 - +145. I like it, cuz it involves very little thinking, just gotta monitor the line and wait until near close.

RL's over 60% has faded a bit recently, but still profitable, I've just had no luck when I play them this month, I'm 0-5 on them.

The Suspect lines I picked up a little from Mr.Lock and it has been doing very well also.

**OlDirtyBaztid** · 06-13-17, 12:15 PM

I appreciate your write ups, man. Although i don't take every pick, i use them as a baseline for what i'll be looking at for the day. solid work!

Originally posted by FUqer

Tuesday Plays 6/13

»-Brewers +145 Woodruff/Lynn
»-Brewers +114 Nelson/Gonzales

»-Reds/Padres Over 8 -108
»-Athletics/Marlins Over 9 -118
____________________________

Still looking at Mariners and Rays. No way am I falling for the D-Backs today, prolly should take the Tigers, but I'll pass, I think the books like to throw people off once in awhile with decoys, they know what people look for, especially a day after the Rockies trap. I'm also on the fence about the Over in the Royals/Giants game. I do kinda like the Athletics, but passing for now.

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by OlDirtyBaztid

I appreciate your write ups, man. Although i don't take every pick, i use them as a baseline for what i'll be looking at for the day. solid work!

Thanks! I would do the same as you, and that's what I hope people do, is just use my information and not follow my plays blindly, at least until I get some things figured out and start winning consistently.

It's nice to get some appreciation once in awhile, I don't get it all that much and besides my personal plays, I think I do some really good work at times. I dunno if people think I'm pretentious or cuz maybe I don't leave much else to be said. Oh well, not looking for attention or friends, just looking to get better and this thread helps me when I write some of the things out and easier to go back and reference some things.

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 12:45 PM

Added Yankees to SDQL post above.

PLAY: Teams who won 6 str8 and are Road Favorites since 2015. (21-5 +43.1% ROI)

streak=6 and AF and season>=2015

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 01:12 PM

I had some time today to post some things I haven't been able to for awhile and here's another one, my streak chart.

Losing Streaks of 3 or more
2017 = 122-115 +2.7% ROI 122-107 OU

(ROI % ALL) (ROI since 2015) (Specific Team Record in Spot)

Phillies -6 AD (+4.2) (+28.9) (8-3 4-1 L5)
Orioles -5 AF (+4.0) (-9.4) (2-0)
Nationals -4 HF (-0.7) (+7.7) (13-9 8-2 L10)
Reds -4 AF (-8.3) (+1.6) (1-8 1-4 L5)

____________________________

Winning Streaks of 3 or more
2017 = 125-123 -3.8% ROI 122-116 OU

(ROI % ALL) (ROI since 2015) (Specific Team Record in Spot)

Yankees +6 AF (+6.7%) (+43.1%) ( 5-5 3-2 L5)
Rangers +4 AD (-3.4%) (-10.4%) (9-15 3-7 L10)
Dodgers +4 AF (-4.7%) (-10.4%) (6-6 4-6 L10)
Cardinals +3 HF (-1.0%) (+5.8%) (54-33 7-3 L10)
Pirates +3 HF (-1.0%) (+5.8%) (21-15 6-4 L10)
_____________________________

First number in () is the ROI all time for database history, the second number in () is ROI since the 2015 season, and the third is the record for that specific team in that spot.

Based on that, I would play the Phillies, Orioles, Nationals, Padres, and Yankees.

Earlier research I've done on streaks show it's a lot better to fade NL teams on winning streaks and play on AL teams on losing streaks.

Based on that, the Orioles, Indians, Brewers, and Rockies would be plays.

Common denominator = Orioles

**FUqer** · 06-13-17, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Tuesday Plays 6/13

»-Brewers +145 Woodruff/Lynn
»-Brewers +114 Nelson/Gonzales
»-Orioles -115

»-Reds/Padres Over 8 -108
»-Athletics/Marlins Over 9 -118
____________________________

Added the Orioles. From looking at the my streaks work, RRL work and the line movement, and when I went to play it I was going to play -1 until I saw it's only +100, that's another red flag for the White Sox.