MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

**FUqer** · 07-27-17, 07:22 AM

I'm hesitant on a couple Unders I like today for good reason.
________________________________________ __________
Since All Star Break

ML = 20-18 for +4.71
(Dogs = 13-8)
(Favs = 7-10)

RL = 7-4 for +3.20

O/U = 16-20 for -5.72
(Overs = 10-6)
(Unders = 6-14)

Total = 43-42 +2.19

**BOA12** · 07-27-17, 07:37 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

I'm hesitant on a couple Unders I like today for good reason.
________________________________________ __________
Since All Star Break

ML = 20-18 for +4.71
(Dogs = 13-8)
(Favs = 7-10)

RL = 7-4 for +3.20

O/U = 16-20 for -5.72
(Overs = 10-6)
(Unders = 6-14)

Total = 43-42 +2.19

looks like you are better with dogs and overs bol fuqer

**FUqer** · 07-27-17, 07:37 AM

The Cardinals game should be around pick'em, if they are favored by much more than that, they will be in the same spot they were against the Rockies and I will have to strongly consider them, Weaver doesn't look too bad. Other than that, unless some things change, I'm about done for the day and going to get started on tomorrow while it's still rainy out and I'm stuck inside.

**FUqer** · 07-27-17, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by BOA12

looks like you are better with dogs and overs bol fuqer

Small favs and Unders haven't been good to me all season. Model is at 54% on Unders since break, I just haven't been able to pick them out, even on the Overs, I'm doing good at 10-6 but model is 19-7 in that stretch, so there is lots of room for improvement still. Projections with the biggest differentials haven't done as well as the smaller differentials. Lately, I've went back to using trends more to help out with the selections and it's helped and I've reduced my volume slightly, with the exception of the other day.

Thanks for stopping in and BOL to u2!

**FUqer** · 07-27-17, 09:40 AM

Streak board filling up again, it will prolly empty out by the end of the weekend.

Playing on teams on losing streaks of 3 games or more this season has been profitable at +1.4% ROI.

The Athletics and Reds are on losing streaks of -3 playing today as Road Dogs, but both have terrible records in that spot.
The Athletics are 2-11 L13 and the Reds are 1-11 L12 as Road Dogs when they have lost 3 in a row.

Playing on teams on winning streaks of 3 games or more have gotten better but still losing on the season at -1.2% ROI.

The Indians are on a 6 game win streak as a Home Favorite and that spot has a +12.3 ROI in the database's history, the Indians are 5-6 in that spot after being 15-0 in yesterday's spot.

The Yankees and Blue Jays are Home Favorites on 3 game winning streaks and overall teams in that spot are 6-1 L7.
The Yankees are 66-31 and 7-0 L7 in that spot.
The Blue Jays are 2-4 L6 in that spot.

The Cardinals are Home Dogs on a 3 game winning streak which has a +1.7% ROI for the database's history in that spot, but teams are 0-6 L6 in that spot. The Cardinals are 4-2 and 3-0 L3 in that spot.

**FUqer** · 07-27-17, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Streak board filling up again, it will prolly empty out by the end of the weekend.

Playing on teams on losing streaks of 3 games or more this season has been profitable at +1.4% ROI.

The Athletics and Reds are on losing streaks of -3 playing today as Road Dogs, but both have terrible records in that spot.
The Athletics are 2-11 L13 and the Reds are 1-11 L12 as Road Dogs when they have lost 3 in a row.

Playing on teams on winning streaks of 3 games or more have gotten better but still losing on the season at -1.2% ROI.

The Indians are on a 6 game win streak as a Home Favorite and that spot has a +12.3 ROI in the database's history, the Indians are 5-6 in that spot after being 15-0 in yesterday's spot.

The Yankees and Blue Jays are Home Favorites on 3 game winning streaks and overall teams in that spot are 6-1 L7.
The Yankees are 66-31 and 7-0 L7 in that spot.
The Blue Jays are 2-4 L6 in that spot.

~~The Cardinals are Home Dogs on a 3 game winning streak which has a +1.7% ROI for the database's history in that spot, but teams are 0-6 L6 in that spot. The Cardinals are 4-2 and 3-0 L3 in that spot.~~

Cardinals are now favorites where they are 13-3 L16 in that spot.

And they now qualify for a hot trend.

HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL

23-4 (2.52, 85.2%)

avg line: -128.0 / 118.0

on / against: +$1,831 / -$1,873

ROI: +53.0% / -68.9%

**FUqer** · 07-27-17, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday Plays 7/27

»-Marlins -1 -101
»-Yankees -112
»-Cardinals -109

»-Rays/Yankees Over 8.5 -110
___________________________

I'm going keep riding the Cardinals. Them being favored with a new pitcher as a team with a losing record vs a team with a decent pitcher and a winning record should raise some flags on who the books are siding with. I like the Under too, but scared hesitant to play Unders ATM.

**FUqer** · 07-27-17, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday Plays 7/27

»-Marlins -1 -101
»-Yankees -112
»-Cardinals -109
»-Mets +104

»-Rays/Yankees Over 8.5 -110
»-Mets/Padres Under 9 +100

___________________________

Added the Mets and the Under.

**FUqer** · 07-27-17, 11:32 PM

Thursday Results 7/27

W - »-Marlins -1 -101
W - »-Yankees -112
L - »-Cardinals -109
L - »-Mets +104

W - »-Rays/Yankees Over 8.5 -110
L - »-Mets/Padres Under 9 +100
___________________________
Today = 3-3 = -0.09
___________________________
Bankroll = 2179 / 3000
___________________________

First three plays were winners and I should of stopped there on a card I wasn't too impressed with but I had to add 3 losers due to bad discipline again. The Cardinals took an unexpected big jump to dogs, which screwed my trend I was using. I beat the closing line by over 10 cents in the Yankees game and on the Over and crushed the closing line on the Mets and their Under by over 20 cents but but those ended up losing. In a positive, I'm now 5-1 L6 extra inning games after starting the season 0-29 in them, law of averages says I should do good in them the rest of the season.

**FUqer** · 07-28-17, 12:00 AM

I'm leaning toward the Twins tomorrow with Garcia going for them for the first time vs the worst left handed pitching hitting team in MLB. The Twins are at least showing that they are going to fight for the playoffs by trying to add some pitching. Oakland is coming back Home from across the Country and an extra inning game, the Twins have been chilling over on the West Coast on their day off.

I like a the Marlins, Rangers and Braves a little. The Cardinals being favored raises some flags, but I don't get caught by another late line move like yesterday.

Going to look into some road dogs for tomorrow as Home Favs have been on a tear.

I been riding the Mets vs lefties with success lately, but not sure if I can trust Montero.
The Royals deserve a look the way they been playing lately, although I'd prefer they'd be going against a RHP.
Rays and Rockies are on the bottom of my list of dogs to look at, not sure if I can trust the Rockies at all, I've been fading the heck out of them with success.

Leaning towards (Pirates/Padres Over), (Rays/Yankees Under), (Royals/Red Sox Over)

**FUqer** · 07-28-17, 02:56 AM

SDQL 7/28

ALL = Yesterday 3-1 (Total 55-61)
SU = Yesterday 2-0 (Total 38-26)
OU = Yesterday 1-1 (Total 17-35)

Pre All-Star Break

ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Mets are 0-26 SU as a road dog by more than 130 off a road game in which they left 18+ men on base and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Mets and A and line>130 and p:A and 18 <= p:LOB and AASB

PLAY: The Cubs are 14-0 SU in the first game of a series off a game as a favorite when they won the last two games their starter started and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Cubs and FGS and p:F and s:W and ss:W and AASB and date >= 20140829

FADE: The White Sox are 2-26 SU as a 155+ dog after a game in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.

team = White Sox and line>155 and po:LOB < 10 and season >= 2011

PLAY: The Blue Jays are 14-0 SU after the All-Star break in a series opener when they scored two or fewer runs in their starters last start.

team = Blue Jays and FGS and s:runs <= 2 and AASB and date >= 20140922

PLAY: The Blue Jays (1006-604 +11.7% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

FADE: The Blue Jays (123-230 -29.0% ROI)

(so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7

PLAY: The Padres (54-27 +22.1% ROI)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

FADE: The Pirates are 2-17 SU since Aug 16, 2014 on the road after a game as a road dog in which they lost by one run.

team=Pirates and A and p:AD and p:margin=-1 and date>=20140816

FADE: The Padres are 2-18 SU since Jul 05, 2014 as a home dog of less than +200 when they have won at least two straight games and their opponent has lost at least two straight games.

team=Padres and HD and line<200 and streak>=2 and o:streak<=-2 and date>=20140705

PLAY: The Indians (242-146 +9.3% ROI)

AF and pp:LOB=14 and 7<p:LOB<18 and -3<p:margin

PLAY: The Cardinals - Home Favorite in the NL with WP% below 50% vs a team with a WP% above 50%. (23-4 +53.0% ROI)

HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL

-----------

OU

UNDER: Rays/Yankees (165-83-7 +26.3% ROI)

STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3

UNDER: The Rays are 1-14 OU on the road after a game as a road dog in which they played extra innings.

team = Rays and A and p:ADX and date >= 20100702

OVER: Teams on the Road are 20-1 OU after scoring 15 or more runs their previous game since 04/22/16.
(Royals/Red Sox)

p:runs>=15 and A and date>=20160422

OVER: Both teams off of rest. (63-39-7 +17.1% ROI)
(Giants/Dodgers, Braves/Phillies, Orioles/Rangers, Royals/Red Sox, Astros/Tigers)

H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017

UNDER: The Angels are 3-18-2 OU since Jun 22, 2016 vs a team that has won at least their last four games.

team=Angels and o:streak>=4 and date>=20160622

OVER: Teams on at least 3 straight Overs. (170-129 +8.2% ROI)
(Mets, Padres, Braves)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Mariners
Cubs
Blue Jays
Padres
Indians
Cardinals

OU

Rays/Yankees Under
Royals/Red Sox Over
Angels/Blue Jays Under
Giants/Dodgers Over
Braves/Phillies Over
Orioles/Rangers Over
Astros/Tigers Over
Mets/Mariners Over
Pirates/Padres Over

___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

________________________________________ _____

ATL 11-3 L14 on the Road in the first game of a series.
ATL 9-3 L12 when Teheran starts vs the Phillies, 6-1 L7, 5-1 in Philly, 5-0 L5.
PHI 7-3 L10 at Home vs Braves.
PHI 4-11 at Home in the first game of a series.
PHI 2-9 L11 when Hellickson starts, 0-4 L4 at Home.
Teheran vs Phillies = 118 AB's, 0 HR's, .587 OPS
Hellickson vs Braves = 127 AB's 5 HR's, .674 OPS
________________________
NYM won last 5 vs LHP, 4-0 L4 on the Road.
SEA 2-8 L10 at Home vs RHP.
________________________
STL 18-7 L25 vs D-Backs, 8-3 L11 at Home.
STL 6-0 L6 at Home vs LHP. 36-9STL 5-1 L6 starts by Wacha, 3-0 L3 at Home.
ARI 0-6 L6 in the 2nd game of a series.
ARI 0-2 when Ray starts vs the Cardinals.
Wacha vs D-Backs = 46 AB's, 3 HR's, .939 OPS
Ray vs Cardinals = 17 AB's, 1 HR, 1.194 OPS.
_______________________
TEX swept in 4 game series in Baltimore just over a week ago, outscored 11-34
TEX 7-1 L8 at Home vs the Orioles.
BAL 3-10 L13 in the first game of a series, 3-9 L12 in FGS against RHP.
BAL 10-22 on the Road vs RHP, 5-19 L24, Over 20-12.
Tillman beat Cashner 3-1 in Baltimore on July 17th.
Cashner vs Orioles = 66 AB's, 1 HR, .763 OPS.
Tillman vs Rangers = 102 AB's, 3 HR's, .894 OPS.
________________________
MIA 5-0 L5 at H vs Reds, 36-10. 1-4 L5 at H vs RHP.
MIA 5-11 in 2nd game of a series at Home.
CIN 3-7 in 2nd game of a series on Road after losing the first, 4-11 overall.
CIN 4-14 L18 on the Road vs RHP, 8-23 L31.
Romano beat the Marlins last week in Cincy 6-3.
Worley vs Reds = 43 AB's, 0 HR's, .817 OPS.
Romano vs Marlins = 16 AB's, 1 HR, .588 OPS.
________________________
MIN 2-14 L16 in Oakland. A's 9-5 at H vs LHP, Over 9-4-1
Garcia vs Athletics = 33 AB's, 1 HR, .708 OPS.
Gossett vs Twins = None
_________________________
WAS scored 42 runs their last 3 games vs the Rockies this season in Colorado.
WAS 2-5 L7 at Home in the first game of a series.
COL 3-16 L19 on the Road.
COL 21-11 in the first game of a series.
COL 10-3 L13 when Marquez starts.
COL 6-15 L21 vs RHP.
_________________________
NYY 19-6 L25 at Home vs Rays
NYY 0-3 L3 starts by Tanaka, 18-5 L23 starts at Home, 2-4 L6 tho.
NYY 8-2 vs Rays when Tanaka starts, 5-0 at Home. Both losses were this season, both on the Road.
NYY 24-11 at Home vs RHP, Over 22-12.
NYY 8-1 L9 vs RHP.
NYY 5-0 L5 in the 2nd game of a series, 6-2 L8 at Home.
TB 1-5 L6 vs RHP.
Tanaka vs Rays = 134 AB's, 11 HR's, .875 OPS.
Pruitt vs Yankees = None
_________________________
KC 8-3 L11 vs Red Sox, 4-1 L5 in Boston, 3-0 in FGS.
KC 4-1 L5 on Road vs LHP.
KC 9-1 L10 starts by Vargas, 4-0 L4 on the Road.
BOS 7-1 L8 at Home in the first game of a series.
BOS 3-4 L7 at Home vs LHP, 1-3 L4 overall vs LHP.
BOS 3-1 at Home this season when Price starts, Under 4-0.
Price vs Royals = 101 AB's, 4 HR's, .652 OPS.
Vargas vs Red Sox = None
_________________________

**FUqer** · 07-28-17, 06:17 AM

Friday Plays 7/28

»-Braves -117
»-Marlins -115
»-Rays +160
»-Royals +165
»-Rangers -1 -103
»-Cardinals -112
»-Twins -107
»-Mets +136

»-Braves/Phillies Over 9 -113
»-Reds/Marlins Under 9.5 -108
»-Rays/Yankees Under 9.5 -108
»-Royals/Red Sox Over 9.5 -108
»-D-Backs/Cardinals Under 8 -103
»-Astros/Tigers Over 9.5 +102
»-Indians/White Sox Under 9.5 -113
___________________________

Yes, I know too many plays, but I'm going big today for better or for worse. I may be out of town a day or two this weekend so I'm gonna get some games in now while I can. There wasn't really anything standing out so I'm playing volume. Wish me luck!

**thekoreanmang** · 07-28-17, 08:34 AM

Good luck, my friend! Lots of plays! I gotta pick and choose though. I'm gonna have to take a closer look at all the info you threw up there. It's crazy how detailed you are and how many trends you're reviewing to get down to your plays. If this is how you approach your "night" job then I can't even imagine how much you probably beast it in your day job.

One thing: Interesting that you're playing the Mets even though there is a strong fade trend. I know there's another trend that favors them but I'm assuming it just becomes a judgment call for you to as to which trend you think might win out.

**FUqer** · 07-28-17, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Good luck, my friend! Lots of plays! I gotta pick and choose though. I'm gonna have to take a closer look at all the info you threw up there. It's crazy how detailed you are and how many trends you're reviewing to get down to your plays. If this is how you approach your "night" job then I can't even imagine how much you probably beast it in your day job.

One thing: Interesting that you're playing the Mets even though there is a strong fade trend. I know there's another trend that favors them but I'm assuming it just becomes a judgment call for you to as to which trend you think might win out.

I have a lot of catching up to do in baseball, I didn't follow it closely for almost 20 years.

The Mets were one of my last selections, because of that trend, but I like them vs lefties and I only had Seattle at 52.3% so the price was worth it. I'm not sure exactly why leaving 18+ men on base would make it such a bad spot, but I cross checked it against the league and it is for some reason, but with so many plays I'll chance going against it today. I just had two 20+ streaks for the Cubs end on the same day last week, they all end sometime. I'm more scared of the larger samples than the streaks. I just get this feeling that road dogs are going to hit today after every single favorite won yesterday and Home teams have been rolling lately.

**SAX27** · 07-28-17, 11:45 AM

Dang FUquer you are a machine when it comes to analysis!!!

**FUqer** · 07-28-17, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday Plays 7/28

»-Braves -117
»-Marlins -115
»-Rays +160
»-Royals +145
»-Rangers -1 -103
»-Cardinals -112
»-Twins -107
»-Mets +136

»-Braves/Phillies Over 9 -113
»-Reds/Marlins Under 9.5 -108
»-Rays/Yankees Under 9.5 -108
»-Royals/Red Sox Over 9.5 -103
»-D-Backs/Cardinals Under 8 -103
»-Astros/Tigers Over 9.5 +102
»-Indians/White Sox Under 9.5 -113
___________________________

Pitching change for the Red Sox, I like the Royals better vs a righty and replayed both the Royals and the Over, lines updated.

**FUqer** · 07-28-17, 12:10 PM

**FUqer** · 07-29-17, 06:28 AM

Friday Results 7/28

~~P - »-Braves -117~~
W - »-Marlins -115
L - »-Rays +160
W - »-Royals +145
W - »-Rangers -1 -103
W - »-Cardinals -112
W - »-Twins -107
W - »-Mets +136

~~P - »-Braves/Phillies Over 9 -113~~
L - »-Reds/Marlins Under 9.5 -108
W - »-Rays/Yankees Under 9.5 -108
L - »-Royals/Red Sox Over 9.5 -103
W - »-D-Backs/Cardinals Under 8 -103
W - »-Astros/Tigers Over 9.5 +102
L - »-Indians/White Sox Under 9.5 -113
___________________________
Today = 9-4 = +5.59
___________________________
Bankroll = 2459 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 26-21 for +8.43
(Dogs = 15-10)
(Favs = 11-11)

RL = 9-4 for +5.20

O/U = 20-24 for -5.94
(Overs = 12-7)
(Unders = 8-17)

Total = 55-49 +7.69
__________________________
Recent Results

FRI = 9-4 for +5.59
THU = 3-3 for -0.09
WED = 5-2-1 for +3.28
TUE = 5-6-1 for -1.15
MON = 4-2 for +2.28
SUN = 2-1 for +1.17
___________________________

Braves plays were no action cuz of Hellickson scratch.

I was able to crush the closing lines on a few plays and almost every total play beat the closing price, but I only went 3-3 in totals. I'm not sure what the % of the time I beat the closing line but it has to be pretty high, too bad that has no to little effect on a game, but it's still nice to get a better price.

My only loss on sides was my DOD pick and it's the 2nd day in a row I've went with a newbie starter and paid the price for it.

___________________________

I was out last night and have no idea about today's card so far and only have until the wife wakes up and gets ready.

Just by glancing at the card.

Braves, Royals and Rays interest me a little.
The price on the Astros looks awful low, especially with the Tigers facing RHP.
Cubs & Indians will win today.

**thekoreanmang** · 07-29-17, 07:00 AM

Good stuff!

**FUqer** · 07-29-17, 07:12 AM

SDQL 7/29

ALL = Yesterday 9-6 (Total 64-67)
SU = Yesterday 3-3 (Total 41-29)
OU = Yesterday 6-3 (Total 23-38)

Pre All-Star Break

ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Red Sox (1006-605 +11.6% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

FADE: The Royals are 1-22 SU as a 120+ dog after a game as a road dog in which Alcides Escobar was hitless and their starter went fewer than seven innings.

team = Royals and line>120 and p:AD and Royals:Alcides Escobar

:hits = 0 and p:SIP<7 and season >= 2013

FADE: The Giants are 0-11 SU as a road dog off a game as a dog in which their opponent scored first, they took the lead, but lost.

team = Giants and A and D and p

and p:L and po:SF>0 and p:BL > 0 and date >= 20080506

PLAY: The Marlins are 15-1 SU as a home favorite after any game that was tied at the end of the sixth inning and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Marlins and H and F and p:M6 = 0 and AASB and date >= 20080912

-----------

PLAY: The Angels are 15-0 RL as a dog after a win as a road dog in which they never trailed and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Angels and D and p:A and p

and po:BL = 0 and p:W and AASB and date >= 20130810

PLAY: The Cardinals are 14-0 RL as a home dog off a home win in which they never trailed and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Cardinals and H and D and p:H and po:BL = 0 and p:W and AASB and date >= 20070729

FADE: The Marlins are 0-14 RL as a home 140-plus favorite after they had multiple multiple-run innings and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Marlins and H and line <= -140 and p:MRI >= 2 and AASB and date >= 20090814

FADE: The Yankees are 0-12 RL as a home favorite after a game as a home favorite after they had six or fewer hits and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Yankees and HF and p:HF and p:hits <= 6 and AASB and date >= 20140924

-----------

OU

UNDER: The Tigers are 0-17 OU as a home dog off a home game in which they allowed six-plus runs and it is after the All-Star break and not a series opener.

team = Tigers and SG > 1 and HD and p:H and 6 <= po:runs and AASB and date >= 20050907

OVER: Teams on at least 3 straight Overs. (172-130 +8.3% ROI)
(Mets, Braves)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Red Sox
Dodgers
Marlins

OU

Astros/Tigers Under
Mets/Mariners Over
Phillies/Braves Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html__________________________________ _

PHI 8-3 L11 at Home vs Braves

SEA 2-9 L11 at Home vs RHP.

STL 19-7 L26 vs D-Backs, 9-3 L12 at Home.

TEX 8-1 L9 at Home vs the Orioles.
BAL 10-23 on the Road vs RHP, 5-20 L25.

MIA 6-0 L6 at Home vs Reds.

MIN 3-14 L17 in Oakland.
A's 9-6 at H vs LHP, Over 10-4-1.

WAS scored 42 runs their last 3 games vs the Rockies this season in Colorado.
COL 3-16 L19 on the Road.
COL 6-15 L21 vs RHP.

NYY 20-6 L26 at Home vs Rays
TB 1-6 L7 vs RHP.

KC 9-3 L12 vs Red Sox, 5-1 L6 in Boston.
KC 5-1 L6 on Road vs LHP.

**OlDirtyBaztid** · 07-29-17, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

thank you for this and the rest of your hard work, bro! def value this and the trends!

**FUqer** · 07-29-17, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by OlDirtyBaztid

thank you for this and the rest of your hard work, bro! def value this and the trends!

yw! always nice to get some appreciation once in awhile.

**FUqer** · 07-29-17, 09:38 AM

**FUqer** · 07-29-17, 10:19 AM

Saturday Plays 7/29

»-Athletics -101
»-Marlins -1 -104
»-Pirates -111
___________________________
I don't want to force any total plays today.

**FUqer** · 07-29-17, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Saturday Plays 7/29

»-Athletics -101
»-Marlins -1 -104
»-Pirates -111
»-Rays +150

»-Rockies/Nationals Over 8.5 -108
___________________________

Two additions.

**FUqer** · 07-30-17, 08:58 AM

Saturday Results 7/29

W - »-Athletics -101
W - »-Marlins -1 -104
L - »-Pirates -111
L - »-Rays +150

L - »-Rockies/Nationals Over 8.5 -108
___________________________
Today = 2-3 = -1.19
___________________________
Bankroll = 2400 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 27-23 for +7.32
(Dogs = 15-11)
(Favs = 12-12)

RL = 10-4 for +6.20

O/U = 20-25 for -7.02
(Overs = 12-8)
(Unders = 8-17)

Total = 57-52 +6.50
__________________________

Recent Results

SAT = 2-3 for -1.19
FRI = 9-4 for +5.59
THU = 3-3 for -0.09
WED = 5-2-1 for +3.28
TUE = 5-6-1 for -1.15
MON = 4-2 for +2.28
SUN = 2-1 for +1.17
___________________________

The last two adds got me again or it would of been a 2-1 day. The Rays almost came through in a back n forth game.

**FUqer** · 07-30-17, 09:04 AM

SDQL 7/30

ALL = Yesterday 4-2 (Total 68-69)
SU = Yesterday 3-0 (Total 44-29)
OU = Yesterday 1-2 (Total 24-40)

Pre All-Star Break

ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Blue Jays, Cardinals, Red Sox (1007-605 +11.6% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Cardinals - Home Favorite in the NL with WP% below 50% vs a team with a WP% above 50%. (24-4 +53.8% ROI)

HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL

PLAY: The Tigers (195-132 +22.1% ROI)

H and -8 > (starter wins - starter losses + o:starter losses - o:starter wins) > -14 and day != Wednesday and day != Thursday and day != Friday and 6 > s:SRA > 0 and p:hits < 13 and total > 6.5 and (1.4 > STDSWHIP>1.1 or tA(runs) > 4.8)

-----------

OU

UNDER: The Cardinals are 0-15 OU in franchise history when Lance Lynn starts at home in July.

team = Cardinals and starter = Lance Lynn and H and month = 7

OVER: The Twins are 19-5 OU in the last game of a series off a game as a favorite in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.

team = Twins and SG = SGS and p:F and po:TLOB < p:TLOB and date >= 20140529

________________

SU

Blue Jays
Cardinals
Red Sox
Tigers

OU

D-Backs/Cardinals Under
Twins/Athletics Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

__________________________________

PHI 9-3 L12 at Home vs Braves

MIA 7-0 L7 at Home vs Reds.

MIN 3-15 L18 in Oakland.

COL 4-16 L20 on the Road.

NYY 21-6 L27 at Home vs Rays

**FUqer** · 07-30-17, 09:07 AM

Sunday Plays 7/30

»-Blue Jays -1.5 +152
»-Phillies -1 +126
»-Red Sox -1.5 +122
»-White Sox +1.5 -113
»-Cardinals -1 +118
»-Pirates -1.5 +107

»-Indians/White Sox Under 9.5 +102
»-D-Backs/Cardinals Under 8.5 +100
»-Mets/Mariners Over 9 +110
______________________________

**FUqer** · 07-30-17, 09:20 AM

Away Favs trying to avoid sweep are 18-7 and 11-1 L12. (Pirates)
Home Favs trying to complete the sweep are 9-1 L10. (Phillies)
Home Favs trying to avoid a sweep are 36-15. (Blue Jays)
Favs overall are 59-26 when trying to avoid the sweep. (Pirates, Blue Jays)

Home Dogs on 5 game losing streaks are +13.0% ROI and 11-1 L12 and the Under is 15-2-1 L18. (White Sox)
Away Favs on 4 game losing streaks are 7-1 L8. (Pirates)
Home Favs on 6 game winning streaks are +12.7% ROI. (Yankees 12-2 L14 in spot)
Home Dogs on 4 game winning streaks are -16.8% ROI and 1-8 L9. (Padres)
Home Favs on 3 game winning streaks are 9-1 L10. (Phillies)

One of my favorite SDQL trends above. ( Blue Jays, Red Sox, Cardinals)

**FUqer** · 07-30-17, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Sunday Plays 7/30

»-Blue Jays -1.5 +152
»-Phillies -1 +126
»-Red Sox -1.5 +122
»-White Sox +1.5 -113
»-Cardinals -1 +118
»-Pirates -1.5 +107
»-Reds -109
»-Mets +215
»-Rockies -111 Game #2 (Gray/Jackson)

»-Indians/White Sox Under 9.5 +102
»-D-Backs/Cardinals Under 8.5 +100
»-Mets/Mariners Over 9 +110
______________________________

3 Additions, off on a 10 mile kayak trip, gonna miss all the action.

**FUqer** · 07-30-17, 07:22 PM

not looking too bad, 6-3-2 with one game to go, if only I would of went ML on Phillies, Cardinals, and Blue Jays, I'd really be looking good.

**FUqer** · 07-30-17, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Streak board filling up again, it will prolly empty out by the end of the weekend.

I think there were at least 10 teams on losing or winning streaks of 3 or more at the start of the day, just two are left with the Dodgers pending. I've watched it all year fill up before the weekend and empty by the time Sunday is done.

**FUqer** · 07-30-17, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

That was just the start of yesterday, 13 teams on it and the only two teams that are left now wasn't even on there yesterday ( Phillies +4 and Braves -4), so every team on there had their streak ended, including the new ones from last night, with the Dodgers pending still.

**FUqer** · 07-30-17, 09:36 PM

Sunday Results 7/30

L - »-Blue Jays -1.5 +152
~~P - »-Phillies -1 +126~~
L - »-Red Sox -1.5 +122
W - »-White Sox +1.5 -113
~~P - »-Cardinals -1 +118~~
W - »-Pirates -1.5 +107
W - »-Reds -109
L - »-Mets +215
L - »-Rockies -111 Game #2 (Gray/Jackson)

W - »-Indians/White Sox Under 9.5 +102
W - »-D-Backs/Cardinals Under 8.5 +100
W - »-Mets/Mariners Over 9 +110
___________________________
Today = 6-4-2 = +2.08
___________________________
Bankroll = 2504 / 3000
___________________________

Since All Star Break

ML = 28-25 for +6.21
(Dogs = 15-12)
(Favs = 13-13)

RL = 12-6 for +6.27

O/U = 23-25 for -3.90
(Overs = 13-8)
(Unders = 10-17)

Total = 63-56 +8.58
__________________________
Recent Results

30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
29th = 2-3 for -1.19
28th = 9-4 for +5.59
27th = 3-3 for -0.09
26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
24th = 4-2 for +2.28
23th = 2-1 for +1.17
___________________________

Late additions hurt me again, 1-2 in those, I got to work on those. I got a little carried away with the RL and settled for pushes in the Cardinals and Phillies games and really didn't need to play them at -1, same for the Blue Jays, I was all set to play them at -1 and then I went with -1.5. It was a good day but it could of been a lot better, going 3-0 in totals made it a positive day.

**FUqer** · 07-31-17, 05:41 AM

SDQL 7/31

ALL = Yesterday 5-1 (Total 73-70)
SU = Yesterday 3-1 (Total 47-30)
OU = Yesterday 2-0 (Total 26-40)

Pre All-Star Break

ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Nationals (65-99 -29.5% ROI)

s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5

PLAY: The Marlins (1010-606 +11.7% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Tigers (542-378 +10.0% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

FADE: The Athletics and Phillies (406-348 -8.4% ROI)

p:margin = 1 and pp:margin = 1 and F

-----------

FADE: The Yankees are 0-13 RL as a home favorite after a game as a home favorite after they had six or fewer hits and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Yankees and HF and p:HF and p:hits <= 6 and AASB and date >= 20140924

PLAY: The Nationals are 14-0 RL on the road after a game as a home dog in which they had 6 or fewer hits

team = Nationals and A and p:HD and p:hits <= 6 and date >= 20070420

-----------

OU

UNDER: Indians/Red Sox (89-47-8 +23.3% ROI)

H and 8.5 >= total >= 7 and tA(runs) <= 4.2 and o:STDSERA <= 4.2 and o:conference = AL and po:runs <= 4 and ppo:runs <= 4 and pppo:runs <= 4 and ppppo:runs <= 4 and pppppo:runs <= 4

UNDER: Indians/Red Sox (463-232-37 +25.6% ROI)

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

UNDER: The Red Sox are 2-16 OU as a dog after they hit more home runs than their opponent.

team = Red Sox and D and p:HR > po:HR and date >= 20160417

________________

SU

Marlins
Tigers
Giants
Braves

OU

Indians/Red Sox Under
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html