MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

**2daBank** · 08-07-17, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

My concern w cards is they been to this point where a win puts them at .500 a bunch of times the last month or more and every stinking time they lose!!

0-6 when trying to get back to .500 since they dipped below.

**OlDirtyBaztid** · 08-07-17, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Really wanting to take the Cardinals based on model and that trend and the Royals 11-25 at Home vs them, but pitchers are trending in opposite directions as far as win/loss and Kennedy last faced the Cards in 2015 with the Padres in a 8-0 win. Martinez is the better pitcher though, so I'm leaning heavily on playing them.

i'm on the cards with you, bro! i actually went heavy on them. best of luck whatever direction you choose

**OlDirtyBaztid** · 08-07-17, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

0-6 when trying to get back to .500 since they dipped below.

i read 0-8? either way, tonight is the night!

**2daBank** · 08-07-17, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by OlDirtyBaztid

i read 0-8? either way, tonight is the night!

Lol could be, I knew they always lose that game didn't know how many times till I just heard it on radio. I didn't bother going back and looking.

Hope you right sick of watching them play mediocre baseball. Hopefully Martinez can get going quickly and avoid those terrible 1st innings he has had lately.

**FUqer** · 08-07-17, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Monday Plays 8/7

»-Padres +101

»-PARLAY: (Pirates -156 /Cubs -176) +157
__________________________

Added a parlay, too much juice on -1 for me.

**FUqer** · 08-07-17, 11:56 AM

haha, so conflicted on that Cardinals game now, may just pass, or wait and see what the line does and how the Padres start off.

**FUqer** · 08-07-17, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Monday Plays 8/7

»-Padres +101

»-PARLAY: (Pirates -156 /Cubs -176) +157

»-Cubs TT Over 4.5 -115
»-Padres TT Over 4.5 -110
__________________________

Added 2 team totals, Cubs have been on a pretty good run vs lefties and the Padres have been putting up some runs on the Road and I like their chances against their opposing pitchers today. Pretty windy in San Fran again, makes me want to play the over for the game also.

**2daBank** · 08-07-17, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Added 2 team totals, Cubs have been on a pretty good run vs lefties and the Padres have been putting up some runs on the Road and I like their chances against their opposing pitchers today. Pretty windy in San Fran again, makes me want to play the over for the game also.

I'm really tempted by the over in San Fran. Maybe cubs tt better cause sf offense definitely the factor that been holding me back as I think scrubbies good for 5-6 runs here.

**FUqer** · 08-07-17, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I'm really tempted by the over in San Fran. Maybe cubs tt better cause sf offense definitely the factor that been holding me back as I think scrubbies good for 5-6 runs here.

I was surprised to see it at 4.5, thought it would be 5. I'm worried it might be like some of my other recent over plays where I have been dependent on one team to get all the runs.

**FUqer** · 08-07-17, 01:57 PM

FADE: The Twins are 0-11 SU since June 15, 2007 with no rest in the first game of a series coming off a one-run, non-shutout win as a favorite.

team=Twins and rest=0 and FGS and p:W and p:margin=1 and op:runs>0 and p:F and date>=20070615

0-11 (-4.91, 0.0%)	avg line: 100.8 / -121.6	on / against: -$1,511 / +$1,401	ROI: -100.0% / +83.9%
1-10 (-5.05, 9.1%)	avg line: 111.3 / -126.1	on / against: -$1,002 / +$961	ROI: -79.4% / +66.6%

UNDER: The Orioles are 0-12-1 OU since Sep 05, 2014 with no rest on the road in the first game of a series after they had more than one multiple-run innings last game.

team=Orioles and rest=0 and A and FGS and p:MRI >= 2 and date>=20140905

0-12-1 (-2.38, 0.0%)

avg total: 8.2

over / under: -$1,275 / +$1,200

ROI: -91.6% / +81.7%

UNDER: The Cardinals are 0-9 OU since Jun 30, 2017 after they scored 6+ runs.

team=Cardinals and p:runs>=6 and date>=20170630

0-9-0 (-3.17, 0.0%)

avg total: 8.9

over / under: -$965 / +$900

ROI: -100.0% / +88.7%

**2daBank** · 08-07-17, 01:59 PM

I like both those unders just been trying to wait on lineup for cards.

**FUqer** · 08-07-17, 02:24 PM

The Orioles Under tops my model as the best value, but there are some trends that scare me. Bundy 8-1 Over L9 starts, 5-0 Over L5 starts on the Road. The Orioles are 6-20 SU L26 on the road vs a RH starter giving up 6.5 rpg. And I haven't done too well on Unders this season, but that's just me. The Orioles TT Under 4 +105 is tempting though and I kind of like the Tigers game to go Over. I'm trying to be really selective on my total plays though, those I have the least experience with.

**FUqer** · 08-07-17, 03:04 PM

Small parlay to keep my action down.

Parlay: $4.34 to win 1 unit

Cardinals -121
Brewers +101
Tigers/Pirates Over 8.5 -127
Cubs/Giants Over 8 -110

**2daBank** · 08-07-17, 03:32 PM

Wow cards actually sent piscotty to minors today! I'm very excited as a fan as he a mess and truthfully didn't believe they would ever remove him from the lineup cause matheny a idiot and the front office doesn't want to admit giving him long term deal before season was a mistake. As someone looking to play cards unders it not as encouraging as this is good for their offense as it means Martinez gonna get more playing time. Oh and fowler back.

**2daBank** · 08-07-17, 03:33 PM

While it not great for under I do think it good if you looking to back cards.

**2daBank** · 08-07-17, 03:34 PM

Wow gyrko out of lineup again as well, no way did I see that coming. I was hopeful they would just move him out of the cleanup spot.

**FUqer** · 08-07-17, 03:42 PM

Good info, thanks.

**2daBank** · 08-07-17, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Good info, thanks.

now that I've finished w this game I think most things point to cards. Kc one of worst teams far as 1st inning production which when Carlos vulnerable. Good ump for Martinez as well and not so much Kennedy who doesn't have particularly good numbers at home. As mentioned I like cards lineup as well. So much for swearing off sides I'm on stl (probably the kiss of death, lol).

**FUqer** · 08-07-17, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Monday Plays 8/7

»-Padres +101
»-Cardinals -120

»-PARLAY: (Pirates -156 /Cubs -176) +157

»-Cubs TT Over 4.5 -115
»-Padres TT Over 4.5 -110
__________________________

Added the Cards.

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 12:25 AM

Monday Plays 8/7

»-Padres +101
»-Cardinals -120

»-PARLAY: (Pirates -156 /Cubs -176) +157

»-Cubs TT Over 4.5 -115
»-Padres TT Over 4.5 -110
__________________________
Today = 3-2 = +1.47
___________________________
Bankroll = 2579 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 32-34 for +0.91
(Dogs = 17-17)
(Favs = 15-17)

RL = 21-10 for +11.38

O/U = 28-31 for -5.25
(Overs = 17-13)
(Unders = 11-18)

Parlays = 2-0 for +3.09

Total = 83-75-8 +10.13
__________________________
Recent Results

7th = 3-2 for +1.47
6th = 2-3-1 for -0.95
5th = 3-2 for +1.14
4th = 4-3 for +0.69
3rd = 2-0 for +2.00
2nd = 3-0 for +3.52
1st = 2-7-1 for -5.27
31st = 1-2 for -1.05
30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
29th = 2-3 for -1.19
28th = 9-4 for +5.59
27th = 3-3 for -0.09
26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
24th = 4-2 for +2.28
23th = 2-1 for +1.17
_______________________________

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 10:06 AM

SDQL 8/8

ALL = Yesterday 3-2-1(Total 107-93)
SU = Yesterday 2-1(Total 70-45)
OU = Yesterday 1-1-1(Total 37-48)

Pre All-Star Break

ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The White Sox are 0-11 SU vs a Left Handed starting pitcher since June 26th, 2017.

team=White Sox and o:STL and date >=20170626

PLAY: The Blue Jays are 18-0 SU as a favorite after a game as a road dog in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs and it after the All-Star break.

team = Blue Jays and F and p:AD and p:BPRA > 1 and AASB and date >= 20070907

PLAY: The Blue Jays (196-132 +22.3% ROI)

H and -8 > (starter wins - starter losses + o:starter losses - o:starter wins) > -14 and day != Wednesday and day != Thursday and day != Friday and 6 > s:SRA > 0 and p:hits < 13 and total > 6.5 and (1.4 > STDSWHIP>1.1 or tA(runs) > 4.8)

FADE: The Red Sox (124-231 -28.9% ROI)

(so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7

PLAY: The Reds (106-60 +8.2% ROI)

HF and line<-130 and line>-160 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10

FADE: The Twins (409-349 -8.2% ROI)

p:margin = 1 and pp:margin = 1 and F

FADE: The Mariners, Mets, Padres, Royals (433-568 -12.4% ROI)

p:margin=-8

PLAY: The Pirates are 16-2 SU as a favorite off a home shutout win.

team = Pirates and F and p:H and po:runs = 0 and date >= 20130521

FADE: The Giants are 3-18 SU since Aug 08, 2015 as a dog after they allowed 12+ hits last game.

team=Giants and D and po:hits >=12 and date>=20150808

-----------

OU

UNDER: The Reds are 0-18 OU in not the first game of a series as a home 140-plus favorite after they scored six-plus runs.

team = Reds and SG > 1 and H and line<=-140 and 6 <= p:runs and date >= 20121009

UNDER: The Reds are 1-18-1 OU since October 9th, 2012 as a 130+ home favorite after a game in which they had multiple multiple-run innings and it is not the first game of a series.

team = Reds and H and line<-130 and p:MRI>=2 and SG > 1 and date >= 20121009

UNDER: The Rangers are 0-15 OU in the first game of a road series after a game as a road dog in which they hit multiple home runs.

team = Rangers and FGS and A and p:AD and p:HR > 1 and date >= 20090506

OVER: The Cardinals are 13-0 OU when Michael Wacha starts on the road when they lost in his last start since May 09, 2014.

team=Cardinals and starter=Michael Wacha and A and s:L and date>=20140509

OVER: The Diamondbacks are 12-0 OU off a game as a dog when their starters have produced quality starts for three straight and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Diamondbacks and p

and p:QS and p2:QS and p3:QS and AASB and date >= 20130909

OVER: The Dodgers are 15-1 OU in the first game of a series as a road favorite off a game as a favorite in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.

team = Dodgers and FGS and AF and p:F and po:LOB < 10 and date >= 20080502

UNDER: Cubs/Giants (288-200-27 +12.2% ROI)

H and REG and 6.5<=total<=8 and total/2<=STDSERA<=5.25 and total/2<=o:STDSERA<=5.25 and 1.25<=STDSWHIP<=1.55 and 1.25<=o:STDSWHIP<=1.55 and season>=2007

________________

SU

Astros
Blue Jays
Rays
Reds
Brewers
Athletics
Rangers
Cardinals
Pirates
Cubs

OU

Padres/Reds Under
Cardinals/Royals Over
Dodgers/D-Backs Over
Cubs/Giants Under
Rangers/Mets Under
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

**2daBank** · 08-08-17, 10:18 AM

I was looking pretty hard at the under in cincy but that park combined w those pitchers inconsistencies have me kinda scared off.

**2daBank** · 08-08-17, 10:34 AM

What do you have to endorse the over in Cleveland? Not sure I can pass plus money on under 8 as I like both pitchers a great deal.

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 10:38 AM

Late start again, but early thoughts are Cardinals again, the books must really like them again too to be favored like that, IMO.

Cubs vs lefty again, haven't checked wind or TT lines yet though.

Brewers vs a lefty, might also be high scoring there.

I think the Mariners/Athletics could be high scoring and maybe the Orioles/Angels also.

Not understanding the Reds line again, I like the Padres but that line is worrisome.

Going to look into the D-Backs, thought the line would be higher.

I don't understand yet why the public are liking the Rangers so much so far.

And I like that Under in the Yankees/Blue Jays game, and something in my head about Sabathia vs the Blue Jays but I'll need to look it up.

Braves/Indians might be a parlay, but I still got a lot to do yet.

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

What do you have to endorse the over in Cleveland? Not sure I can pass plus money on under 8 as I like both pitchers a great deal.

Nothing too special, both teams off rest, been cooling down somewhat though, I wouldn't worry bout it too much.

69-44-7 (1.06, 61.1%)

avg total: 8.8

over / under: +$2,092 / -$3,065

ROI: +15.7% / -23.4%

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 10:42 AM

It's actually minus ROI since July, so it's more than cooled off.

8-9-3 (0.17, 47.1%)

avg total: 9.3

over / under: -$178 / +$30

ROI: -8.1% / +1.4%

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 10:45 AM

I'm going to go ahead and remove that one.

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

SDQL 8/8

ALL = Yesterday 3-2-1(Total 107-93)
SU = Yesterday 2-1(Total 70-45)
OU = Yesterday 1-1-1(Total 37-48)

Pre All-Star Break

ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The White Sox are 0-11 SU vs a Left Handed starting pitcher since June 26th, 2017.

team=White Sox and o:STL and date >=20170626

PLAY: The Blue Jays are 18-0 SU as a favorite after a game as a road dog in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs and it after the All-Star break.

team = Blue Jays and F and p:AD and p:BPRA > 1 and AASB and date >= 20070907

PLAY: The Blue Jays (196-132 +22.3% ROI)

H and -8 > (starter wins - starter losses + o:starter losses - o:starter wins) > -14 and day != Wednesday and day != Thursday and day != Friday and 6 > s:SRA > 0 and p:hits < 13 and total > 6.5 and (1.4 > STDSWHIP>1.1 or tA(runs) > 4.8)

FADE: The Red Sox (124-231 -28.9% ROI)

(so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7

PLAY: The Reds (106-60 +8.2% ROI)

HF and line<-130 and line>-160 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10

FADE: The Twins (409-349 -8.2% ROI)

p:margin = 1 and pp:margin = 1 and F

FADE: The Mariners, Mets, Padres, Royals (433-568 -12.4% ROI)

p:margin=-8

PLAY: The Pirates are 16-2 SU as a favorite off a home shutout win.

team = Pirates and F and p:H and po:runs = 0 and date >= 20130521

FADE: The Giants are 3-18 SU since Aug 08, 2015 as a dog after they allowed 12+ hits last game.

team=Giants and D and po:hits >=12 and date>=20150808

-----------

OU

UNDER: The Reds are 0-18 OU in not the first game of a series as a home 140-plus favorite after they scored six-plus runs.

team = Reds and SG > 1 and H and line<=-140 and 6 <= p:runs and date >= 20121009

UNDER: The Reds are 1-18-1 OU since October 9th, 2012 as a 130+ home favorite after a game in which they had multiple multiple-run innings and it is not the first game of a series.

team = Reds and H and line<-130 and p:MRI>=2 and SG > 1 and date >= 20121009

UNDER: The Rangers are 0-15 OU in the first game of a road series after a game as a road dog in which they hit multiple home runs.

team = Rangers and FGS and A and p:AD and p:HR > 1 and date >= 20090506

OVER: The Cardinals are 13-0 OU when Michael Wacha starts on the road when they lost in his last start since May 09, 2014.

team=Cardinals and starter=Michael Wacha and A and s:L and date>=20140509

OVER: The Diamondbacks are 12-0 OU off a game as a dog when their starters have produced quality starts for three straight and it is after the All-Star break.

team = Diamondbacks and p

and p:QS and p2:QS and p3:QS and AASB and date >= 20130909

OVER: The Dodgers are 15-1 OU in the first game of a series as a road favorite off a game as a favorite in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.

team = Dodgers and FGS and AF and p:F and po:LOB < 10 and date >= 20080502

UNDER: Cubs/Giants (288-200-27 +12.2% ROI)

H and REG and 6.5<=total<=8 and total/2<=STDSERA<=5.25 and total/2<=o:STDSERA<=5.25 and 1.25<=STDSWHIP<=1.55 and 1.25<=o:STDSWHIP<=1.55 and season>=2007

________________

SU

Astros
Blue Jays
Rays
Reds
Brewers
Athletics
Rangers
Cardinals
Pirates
Cubs

OU

Padres/Reds Under
Cardinals/Royals Over
Dodgers/D-Backs Over
Cubs/Giants Under
Rangers/Mets Under
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

Changes made.

**2daBank** · 08-08-17, 11:11 AM

Like the cardinals again, starting to play good ball and lineup looks a lot better w piscotty in minors! Figuring after few days off gyrko most likely be back. that not necessarily a bad thing as even if his bat been terrible he has played all star caliber defense at 3rd base, just hoping he gets moved down in the order. Tough to predict what matheny's dumb ass will do but gotta believe he has to stick w Martinez in the cleanup spot given the results the last few games!

hoping wacha's last start was just a blip and not a sign of him regressing again. I've always been a believer when his shoulder is fine he a front line starter and havnt heard anything negative about the shoulder so have to believe it still feeling strong.

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 12:03 PM

Taking the Cardinals again, but want to try to get just a little cheaper price. I'll prolly go -1 and want + money. Cards 7-2 L9 vs a LH starter outscoring them 51-26, but I don't want to lay juice cuz Royals are 15-3 L18 Home starts by Vargas.

On the fence with the Mets, Cashner has been pitching good lately. Rangers 11-4 vs NL this year, 4-1 on the Road.

One the fence with the Brewers, not sure about Garza on the Road and the recent line movement.

The Astros look too easy today, I don't even think I can stick them in a parlay cuz they will be so popular.

Cubs 11-1 L12 vs a LH starter and Brewers 6-1 L7 vs a LH starter.

I liked the Orioles a little before I did my streaks chart and saw their recent history as an AD on a 3 game win streak vs the Angels and Home Favorites on a 3 game losing streak.

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 01:28 PM

Tuesday Plays 8/8

»-Cardinals -120
»-Padres +127
»-Mariners -115
»-Brewers +118
»-Rays +190
»-D-Backs +120
__________________________

I got a several totals I'm interested in also, may be a high volume day.

**2daBank** · 08-08-17, 01:35 PM

I don't mind the cards -1.5 honestly. The pen has been performing much better of late, i expect a good line from wacha, only thing keeping me off under is my fear cards offense continues recent surge against Vargas. I think suter from milw a excellent comp to Vargas and cards tagged him at a time the offense was doing horribly.

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Tuesday Plays 8/8

»-Cardinals -120
»-Padres +127
»-Mariners -115
»-Brewers +118
»-Rays +190
»-D-Backs +120

»-PARLAY: (Braves -166/ Pirates -165) +157

__________________________

Added a parlay.

**thekoreanmang** · 08-08-17, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Tuesday Plays 8/8

»-Cardinals -120
»-Padres +127
»-Mariners -115
»-Brewers +118
»-Rays +190
»-D-Backs +120
__________________________

I got a several totals I'm interested in also, may be a high volume day.

Did you mean to bet SEA? I thought based on your backup that the play would be OAK?

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Did you mean to bet SEA? I thought based on your backup that the play would be OAK?

Yes, I played Seattle. I go against those SDQL plays from time to time. Remember the 0-26 Mets trend where I played the Mets and they won? Match-ups and other variables have to be accounted for besides SDQL trends, that's just one part of the tool box. There are very few of them where I will play them blindly.