MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 02:46 PM

Not gonna plays any totals right now, 7 plays is enough for now and I got to go for a bit. So, I threw them in a juiced parlay for some action.

PARLAY $1.37 to win 1 Unit.

Cardinals/Royals Over 8.5 -115
Dodgers/D-Backs Over 8.5 -161
Mariners/Athletics Over 9 -129
Yankees/Blue Jays Under 9.5 -139
Cubs/Giants Over 7 -157
Red Sox/Rays Under 8 -168
Brewers/Twins Over 9 -181

**thekoreanmang** · 08-08-17, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Yes, I played Seattle. I go against those SDQL plays from time to time. Remember the 0-26 Mets trend where I played the Mets and they won? Match-ups and other variables have to be accounted for besides SDQL trends, that's just one part of the tool box. There are very few of them where I will play them blindly.

Good point. If you have the time, it would be cool to understand what other factors you considered in going against the trend. If not, no worries.

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

First and foremost for me is the match-up itself and pitching. Colon has had success vs the Rangers but it's been awhile and he had been a mess, his team is 0-7 his last 7 starts. Perez is no ace, but the Twins have struggled vs lefties lately. The Rangers bullpen isn't good, but it's still better than the Twins.

Then I run my model to get an idea of what the line should be, but after the break, I usually go against where it says the value is, especially anything over -20. Negative value since the break has gone 105-61, the higher the better. Positive value is 57-55. I set it all up with the team in order by pitching advantage according to my ratings and made a system out of it.

Then I run through my collection of SDQL to see if there are any hits for the day as soon as the database updates.

Then I select out what teams stand out according to the data and then I go through them individually and look at recent pitcher history and pitcher history against opponent and team's recent performance against certain spots, all with SDQL.

Then I consider what is becoming more important as the season goes along, motivation. I thought the Twins were ready to put up a fight when they singed Garcia and then after one good start for them, they give him to the Yankees. It seemed like their latest losing skid put a huge damper on their confidence. The Rangers don't fair much better, but at least they've won a couple in a row and still have plenty of time to go on one of their streaks if they can get hot and contend for a wild card spot.

And I try to put it altogether to come up with the best choices, but it's an ongoing process of refinement and learning.

This is from last week when you asked me about a Rangers play and I explained some of my process.

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 06:22 PM

I also check weather, monitor line movement and have discussions like with you see with 2dabank and oldirtybastard and others among other little things.

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Not gonna plays any totals right now, 7 plays is enough for now and I got to go for a bit. So, I threw them in a juiced parlay for some action.

PARLAY $1.37 to win 1 Unit.

WIN - Cardinals/Royals Over 8.5 -115
WIN - Dodgers/D-Backs Over 8.5 -161
WIN - Mariners/Athletics Over 9 -129
WIN - Yankees/Blue Jays Under 9.5 -139
WIN - Cubs/Giants Over 7 -157
WIN - Red Sox/Rays Under 8 -168
WIN - Brewers/Twins Over 9 -181

Now if Mariners can comeback and win it will be a decent night.

**2daBank** · 08-08-17, 11:44 PM

Wow nice, too bad you put so little on it. Lol

**FUqer** · 08-08-17, 11:57 PM

I almost played each of them alone but been so hesitant on totals and trying to be more disciplined. I can't catch many breaks this season, haha.

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 12:59 AM

Tuesday Results 8/8

»-Cardinals -120
»-Padres +127
»-Mariners -115
»-Brewers +118
»-Rays +190
»-D-Backs +120

»-PARLAY: (Braves -166/ Pirates -165) +157
__________________________
Today = 4-3 = +2.47
___________________________
Bankroll = 2702 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 36-36 for +3.38
(Dogs = 19-19)
(Favs = 17-17)

RL = 21-10 for +11.38

O/U = 28-31 for -5.25
(Overs = 17-13)
(Unders = 11-18)

Parlays = 2-1 for +3.09

Total = 87-78-8 +12.60
__________________________
Recent Results

8th = 4-3 for +2.47
7th = 3-2 for +1.47
6th = 2-3-1 for -0.95
5th = 3-2 for +1.14
4th = 4-3 for +0.69
3rd = 2-0 for +2.00
2nd = 3-0 for +3.52
1st = 2-7-1 for -5.27
31st = 1-2 for -1.05
30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
29th = 2-3 for -1.19
28th = 9-4 for +5.59
27th = 3-3 for -0.09
26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
24th = 4-2 for +2.28
23th = 2-1 for +1.17
________________________________________ ___________

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 01:31 AM

Wood hasn't faced the Reds in a few years but still pretty interesting starting point.

The jist of it was he has shut them out 4 out of last 5 times and gave up 8 runs in last 7 starts against them, last 8 all went Under, but last start was in April 2015 when he was with the Cubs.

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 01:36 AM

Reds 3-18 L21 vs a LH starter, Under 7-3 L10.

3-18 (-2.81, 14.3%)

avg line: 129.6 / -141.6

on / against: -$1,497 / +$1,437

ROI: -68.8% / +46.7%

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 09:49 AM

SDQL 8/9

ALL = Yesterday 5-10 (Total 112-103)
SU = Yesterday 3-7(Total 73-52)
OU = Yesterday 2-3 (Total 39-51)

Pre All-Star Break

ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Reds are 25-0 SU as a favorite by more than 130 after allowing six-plus runs as a home favorite.

team = Reds and line<-130 and p:HF and 6 <= po:runs and date >= 20120428

FADE: The Dodgers (66-99 -28.8% ROI)

s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5

PLAY: The Twins (542-381 +9.7% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

-----------

OU

UNDER: The Angels are 0-17 OU as a home dog after a game in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.

team = Angels and HD and p:TLOB < 5 and date >= 20140622

OVER: The Athletics are 14-0 OU as a favorite in the last game of a series after a home loss in which they scored first.

team=Athletics and F and p:HL and p:SF>0 and LGS and date>=20090902

UNDER: Cubs/Giants (465-231-37 +26.0% ROI)

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

________________

SU

Reds
D-Backs
Twins

OU

Orioles/Angels Under
Mariners/Athletics Over
Cubs/Giants Under
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...______________

**2daBank** · 08-09-17, 10:09 AM

Loving dbags again. Doyers historic run has clearly created some nice value in this series. Seems folks losing site of the fact zona a really good team in their own right. I'd argue better lineup, minus the closer a damn near equally good pen (hate Rodney and am nervous every 9th inning I play zona when that crooked hat clown comes in!), obviously doyers 1-2 punch of kershaw (when healthy) and darvish has a edge over most team but zona starting pitching very solid.

I think wood has gotten little shaky of late. I read somewhere his velo has been dipping of late, been trying to find somewhere to see this but so far without success (would you happen to know where I can get pitchers game to game velo numbers?) makes sense there some truth to it as his strikeouts have dropped every month since peaking in may.

**thekoreanmang** · 08-09-17, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Now if Mariners can comeback and win it will be a decent night.

Wow. That's insane! Great stuff, FUQer!

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Wow. That's insane! Great stuff, FUQer!

Thanks, getting better and better with more experience.

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Loving dbags again. Doyers historic run has clearly created some nice value in this series. Seems folks losing site of the fact zona a really good team in their own right. I'd argue better lineup, minus the closer a damn near equally good pen (hate Rodney and am nervous every 9th inning I play zona when that crooked hat clown comes in!), obviously doyers 1-2 punch of kershaw (when healthy) and darvish has a edge over most team but zona starting pitching very solid.

I think wood has gotten little shaky of late. I read somewhere his velo has been dipping of late, been trying to find somewhere to see this but so far without success (would you happen to know where I can get pitchers game to game velo numbers?) makes sense there some truth to it as his strikeouts have dropped every month since peaking in may.

The D-Backs are a different team at Home vs lefties also, 8-2 SU, 7.8 RPG and 7-2-1 Over, lol compared to them on the Road where they were averaging under 2 RPG all season and now at 2.4 RPG.

Dodgers just 3-8 specifically in that trend above.

LoL, still getting to know some of the nicknames for teams, Doyers is a new one I been seeing, but I have got to know Rodney pretty well from him screwing me a few times this year, once gave up 4 runs vs the Rockies in the 9th, I remember it like it was yesterday.

**2daBank** · 08-09-17, 11:09 AM

Zona offense very much like the Rockies used to be where they great at home and of course at coors and struggle most other places.

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 11:11 AM

Run down on my thoughts so far.

Red Sox - mainly for pitching advantages, both teams are familiar with each pitcher with Porcello having much better success.

Braves - ~~Sweep angle on Home Favorites, 11-1 L12 in NL~~. I still need to research match-up more.

Yankees - I liked them before and after the pitching change, but they are popular and pricey, so they may just have to go into a parlay.

Padres - Travis Wood has shut them out 4 out of his last 5 starts, but those were a few seasons ago. The Reds are 3-18 L21 vs a lefty. That 25-0 trend for the Reds does scare me a little though.

Cardinals, Athletics, Orioles - I like but need to research match-ups more.

Mets - I like the Mets vs lefties lately, even though they have faced a couple of tough ones their last couple and didn't too well.

D-Backs - Different team at Home vs lefties, 8-2 SU, and Wood is showing some signs of regression after a hot first half. Also a nice SDQL trend above says to fade the Dodgers. I been saying there is no way that 70% holds up for long, I just wish they were priced a little higher. I think that is saying something in itself that they are so low priced and on one of the best runs ever.

A couple of totals I like but haven't got too far into.

Padres/Reds Under
Yankees/Blue Jays Over
Phillies/Braves Under
Pirates/Tigers Under

**2daBank** · 08-09-17, 11:16 AM

Lean over in Tampa but then I ran into how good porcello has been at the trop throughout his career. Stands to reason tampons should score off him cause he allows bombs and Tampa pretty hr dependant. His stellar record down there kinda worries me tho and certainly makes a Boston play understandable. I'd expect Sox to score their fair share off odorizzi.

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 11:23 AM

Database hasn't updated Giants as favorites yet, but when it does it will trigger a hot trend for losing teams favored over winning teams in the NL.

26-5 (2.32, 83.9%)	avg line: -128.2 / 118.2	on / against: +$1,976 / -$2,031	ROI: +49.7% / -65.1%
20-11 (1.02, 64.5%)	avg line: 152.3 / -173.5	on / against: +$1,992 / -$2,372	ROI: +61.2% / -43.2%
11-20-0 (-0.65, 35.5%)	avg total: 8.8	over / under: -$1,072 / +$775	ROI: -31.8% / +22.4%

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 11:29 AM

I just can't trust the Giants going against the Cubs with another lefty who have 3 teams now breathing down their neck in their division.

Glad I missed the Mets game, looks like it's heading to be like their last few vs lefties, lopsided Overs.

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 11:40 AM

Thought the Braves were avoiding 3 game sweep, but lot's of 2 game series and database is acting buggy on them, so that angle on them is no good. They have lost 10 out of last 12 vs the Phillies tho.

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 11:50 AM

Wednesday Plays 8/9

»-Red Sox -1 +102
__________________________

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Wednesday Plays 8/9

»-Red Sox -1 +102
»-D-Backs +105

__________________________

Addition.

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Wednesday Plays 8/9

»-Red Sox -1 +102
»-D-Backs +105
»-Athletics -109
__________________________

Addition. A's have been good in day games and I think have won 5 or 6 in a row at Home in day games. Line starting to move in their favor.

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Wednesday Plays 8/9

»-Red Sox -1 +102
»-D-Backs +105
»-Athletics -109

»-Parlay: (Orioles -131/ Yankees -171) +179
__________________________

Addition.

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 02:11 PM

Another totals parlay. The Win/Loss don't go on my record on these but the Win/Loss money does. Didn't need to juice last night, but still worth the extra few cents in this case.

Parlay: $1.95 to win 1 Unit

Dodgers/D-Backs Over 8 -147
Royals/Cardinals Over 8 -132
Yankees/Blue Jays Over 8.5 -139
Phillies/Braves Under 9.5 -139
Mariners/Athletics Over 9.5 -129
Padres/Reds Under 9.5 -139

**FUqer** · 08-09-17, 03:07 PM

Early Total Projections for tomorrow.

LAD@ARI (8.2) U9.5 (-1.3)
NYY@TOR (8.1) U9 (-0.9)
HOU@CHW (8.7) U9.5 (-0.8)

MIA@WAS (8.9) U9.5 (-0.6)
SD@CIN (8.9) O8.5 (+0.4)

KC@STL (8.8) O8.5 (+0.3)
PIT@DET (9.2) U9.5 (-0.3)
NYM@PHI (8.3) O8 (+0.3)
LAA@SEA (7.8) O7.5 (+0.3)
BAL@OAK (9.3) U9.5 (-0.2)
MIN@MIL (9.2) O9 (+0.2)
CLE@TB (7.8) U8 (-0.2)

**FUqer** · 08-10-17, 09:57 AM

Wednesday Results 8/9

»-Red Sox -1 +102
»-D-Backs +105
»-Athletics -109

»-Parlay: (Orioles -131/ Yankees -171) +179
__________________________
Yesterday 1-3 = -2.09
___________________________
Bankroll = 2598 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break

ML = 36-38 for +1.29
(Dogs = 19-20)
(Favs = 17-18)

RL = 22-10 for +12.40

O/U = 28-31 for -5.25
(Overs = 17-13)
(Unders = 11-18)

Parlays = 2-2 for +2.07

Total = 88-81-8 +10.51
__________________________
Recent Results

9th = 1-3 for -2.09
8th = 4-3 for +2.47
7th = 3-2 for +1.47
6th = 2-3-1 for -0.95
5th = 3-2 for +1.14
4th = 4-3 for +0.69
3rd = 2-0 for +2.00
2nd = 3-0 for +3.52
1st = 2-7-1 for -5.27
31st = 1-2 for -1.05
30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
29th = 2-3 for -1.19
28th = 9-4 for +5.59
27th = 3-3 for -0.09
26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
24th = 4-2 for +2.28
23th = 2-1 for +1.17
____________________________

**FUqer** · 08-10-17, 10:00 AM

SDQL 8/10

ALL = Yesterday 4-2 (Total 116-105)
SU = Yesterday 2-1(Total 75-53)
OU = Yesterday 2-1 (Total 41-52)

Pre All-Star Break

ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Yankees (62-29 +39.9% ROI)

p:hits - po:hits >= 10 and A and day = Thursday and line <= 165

PLAY: The Tigers (80-29 +30.7% ROI)

H and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and season > 2008 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and rest = 0

PLAY: The D-Backs and Nationals (1013-609 +11.6% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

FADE: The White Sox are 1-14 SU in the last game if a series vs a non divisional opponent when they face a divsional opponent next game.

team=White Sox and LGS and no

IV and NDIV and 20160720<=date

FADE: The Marlins are 2-21 SU as a dog of more than 135 in the last game of a series after a game in which they did not hit a home run.

team = Marlins and line>135 and p:HR = 0 and LGS and season >= 2014

PLAY: The Twins are 16-0 RL off a road game in which they had six or fewer hits and it is after the All-Star break and not a series opener.

team = Twins and SG > 1 and p:A and p:hits <= 6 and AASB and date >= 20150909

-----------

OU

UNDER: The Reds are 0-18 OU in not the first game of a series as a home 140-plus favorite after they scored six-plus runs.

team = Reds and SG > 1 and H and line<=-140 and 6 <= p:runs and date >= 20121009

UNDER: The Reds are 2-18-1 OU since October 9th, 2012 as a 130+ home favorite after a game in which they had multiple multiple-run innings and it is not the first game of a series.team = Reds and H and line<-130 and p:MRI>=2 and SG > 1 and date >= 20121009

________________

SU

Yankees
Tigers
D-Backs
Nationals
Astros
Mets

OU

Padres/Reds Under
Royals/Cardinals Under
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

**FUqer** · 08-10-17, 10:35 AM

Thursday Plays 8/10

»-Padres/Reds FF Under 4 +110
__________________________

**2daBank** · 08-10-17, 10:35 AM

Man it tough for me to get behind a under on what a pretty low total at that bandbox in cincy (just noticed at least the juice flipping, when I was looking the under 8.5 was juiced).

I do like both the kids starting but lamet fly ball rate is concerning as is both their walk rates. Couple walks at that park and next thing you know a routine fly ball leaves the yard and ya staring at a crooked number.

**FUqer** · 08-10-17, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Man it tough for me to get behind a under on what a pretty low total at that bandbox in cincy (just noticed at least the juice flipping, when I was looking the under 8.5 was juiced).

I do like both the kids starting but lamet fly ball rate is concerning as is both their walk rates. Couple walks at that park and next thing you know a routine fly ball leaves the yard and ya staring at a crooked number.

And an Over umpire? to boot it looks like and opposite of my model and Reds on 4 str8 Overs.

I'm guessing the W/L by umps are for Home teams?

That's why I had to go first five with + money, I like the starters, but not the pens and they are used up pretty good. The Padres have to go back out West to face the Dodgers and I'm hoping that will have some affect. Stadium will be mostly empty with no energy and a nice 18-0 Under SDQL trend for the game. It's one of those ones if I was a professional gambler doing it for a living and betting huge money, I might not of played it, but I like action.

**2daBank** · 08-10-17, 11:04 AM

Yea the w/l is for home team. Covers even breaks down record by line.

Action junkie in me says reds rl but I don't like home team rl unless I expect a high scoring game.

**FUqer** · 08-10-17, 11:38 AM

I been there since 2011 back when I only did NFL parlays, just hit over 50% on both sides and totals with over 1000 games for each for the season in MLB after starting really bad start. I've seen the Umpire stuff there, just never paid it much attention, they've gotten a lot better the last year or so on their info page.

For today the Mariners will prolly at least be a parlay play, and I like the Yankees and I need to rerun the Brewers game with the pitching change to a lefty. And I kind of like the Over in the Orioles/Athletics game especially with the wind, I suppose I better start checking ump info and I still need to check bullpen usage on that one as well.

I think the Cardinals, Brewers, and Astros are all in good sweep spots today, need to check SDQL though to be exact.

Only two travel concerns would be the Padres going back West to face the Dodgers and the Astros going back to Texas @ the Rangers.

**OlDirtyBaztid** · 08-10-17, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday Plays 8/10

»-Padres/Reds FF Under 4 +110
__________________________

caught this one at 4.5. good luck to us