MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

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  • FUqer
    SBR MVP
    • 01-22-15
    • 3968

    #631
    Not gonna plays any totals right now, 7 plays is enough for now and I got to go for a bit. So, I threw them in a juiced parlay for some action.

    PARLAY $1.37 to win 1 Unit.

    Cardinals/Royals Over 8.5 -115
    Dodgers/D-Backs Over 8.5 -161
    Mariners/Athletics Over 9 -129
    Yankees/Blue Jays Under 9.5 -139
    Cubs/Giants Over 7 -157
    Red Sox/Rays Under 8 -168
    Brewers/Twins Over 9 -181
    Comment
    • thekoreanmang
      SBR MVP
      • 03-17-14
      • 1422

      #632
      Originally posted by FUqer
      Yes, I played Seattle. I go against those SDQL plays from time to time. Remember the 0-26 Mets trend where I played the Mets and they won? Match-ups and other variables have to be accounted for besides SDQL trends, that's just one part of the tool box. There are very few of them where I will play them blindly.
      Good point. If you have the time, it would be cool to understand what other factors you considered in going against the trend. If not, no worries.
      Comment
      • FUqer
        SBR MVP
        • 01-22-15
        • 3968

        #633
        Originally posted by FUqer



        First and foremost for me is the match-up itself and pitching. Colon has had success vs the Rangers but it's been awhile and he had been a mess, his team is 0-7 his last 7 starts. Perez is no ace, but the Twins have struggled vs lefties lately. The Rangers bullpen isn't good, but it's still better than the Twins.

        Then I run my model to get an idea of what the line should be, but after the break, I usually go against where it says the value is, especially anything over -20. Negative value since the break has gone 105-61, the higher the better. Positive value is 57-55. I set it all up with the team in order by pitching advantage according to my ratings and made a system out of it.

        Then I run through my collection of SDQL to see if there are any hits for the day as soon as the database updates.

        Then I select out what teams stand out according to the data and then I go through them individually and look at recent pitcher history and pitcher history against opponent and team's recent performance against certain spots, all with SDQL.

        Then I consider what is becoming more important as the season goes along, motivation. I thought the Twins were ready to put up a fight when they singed Garcia and then after one good start for them, they give him to the Yankees. It seemed like their latest losing skid put a huge damper on their confidence. The Rangers don't fair much better, but at least they've won a couple in a row and still have plenty of time to go on one of their streaks if they can get hot and contend for a wild card spot.

        And I try to put it altogether to come up with the best choices, but it's an ongoing process of refinement and learning.
        This is from last week when you asked me about a Rangers play and I explained some of my process.
        Comment
        • FUqer
          SBR MVP
          • 01-22-15
          • 3968

          #634
          I also check weather, monitor line movement and have discussions like with you see with 2dabank and oldirtybastard and others among other little things.
          Comment
          • FUqer
            SBR MVP
            • 01-22-15
            • 3968

            #635
            Originally posted by FUqer
            Not gonna plays any totals right now, 7 plays is enough for now and I got to go for a bit. So, I threw them in a juiced parlay for some action.

            PARLAY $1.37 to win 1 Unit.

            WIN - Cardinals/Royals Over 8.5 -115
            WIN - Dodgers/D-Backs Over 8.5 -161
            WIN - Mariners/Athletics Over 9 -129
            WIN - Yankees/Blue Jays Under 9.5 -139
            WIN - Cubs/Giants Over 7 -157
            WIN - Red Sox/Rays Under 8 -168
            WIN - Brewers/Twins Over 9 -181
            Now if Mariners can comeback and win it will be a decent night.
            Comment
            • 2daBank
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-26-09
              • 88966

              #636
              Wow nice, too bad you put so little on it. Lol
              Comment
              • FUqer
                SBR MVP
                • 01-22-15
                • 3968

                #637
                I almost played each of them alone but been so hesitant on totals and trying to be more disciplined. I can't catch many breaks this season, haha.
                Comment
                • FUqer
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-22-15
                  • 3968

                  #638
                  Tuesday Results 8/8

                  ยป-Cardinals -120
                  ยป-Padres +127
                  ยป-Mariners -115
                  ยป-Brewers +118
                  ยป-Rays +190
                  ยป-D-Backs +120

                  ยป-PARLAY: (Braves -166/ Pirates -165) +157
                  __________________________
                  Today = 4-3 = +2.47
                  ___________________________
                  Bankroll = 2702 / 3000
                  ___________________________
                  Since All Star Break

                  ML = 36-36 for +3.38
                  (Dogs = 19-19)
                  (Favs = 17-17)

                  RL = 21-10 for +11.38

                  O/U = 28-31 for -5.25
                  (Overs = 17-13)
                  (Unders = 11-18)

                  Parlays = 2-1 for +3.09

                  Total = 87-78-8 +12.60
                  __________________________
                  Recent Results

                  8th = 4-3 for +2.47
                  7th = 3-2 for +1.47
                  6th = 2-3-1 for -0.95
                  5th = 3-2 for +1.14
                  4th = 4-3 for +0.69
                  3rd = 2-0 for +2.00
                  2nd = 3-0 for +3.52
                  1st = 2-7-1 for -5.27
                  31st = 1-2 for -1.05
                  30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
                  29th = 2-3 for -1.19
                  28th = 9-4 for +5.59
                  27th = 3-3 for -0.09
                  26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
                  25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
                  24th = 4-2 for +2.28
                  23th = 2-1 for +1.17
                  ________________________________________ ___________
                  Comment
                  • FUqer
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-22-15
                    • 3968

                    #639
                    Wood hasn't faced the Reds in a few years but still pretty interesting starting point.

                    The jist of it was he has shut them out 4 out of last 5 times and gave up 8 runs in last 7 starts against them, last 8 all went Under, but last start was in April 2015 when he was with the Cubs.
                    Last edited by FUqer; 08-09-17, 01:42 AM. Reason: had some external links in graphs
                    Comment
                    • FUqer
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-22-15
                      • 3968

                      #640
                      Reds 3-18 L21 vs a LH starter, Under 7-3 L10.

                      3-18 (-2.81, 14.3%) avg line: 129.6 / -141.6 on / against: -$1,497 / +$1,437 ROI: -68.8% / +46.7%
                      Comment
                      • FUqer
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-22-15
                        • 3968

                        #641
                        SDQL 8/9

                        ALL = Yesterday 5-10 (Total 112-103)
                        SU = Yesterday 3-7(Total 73-52)
                        OU = Yesterday 2-3 (Total 39-51)

                        Pre All-Star Break

                        ALL - (Total 441-346)
                        SU - (Total 223-171)
                        OU - (Total 218-185)
                        ---------------------------------

                        SU

                        PLAY: The Reds are 25-0 SU as a favorite by more than 130 after allowing six-plus runs as a home favorite.

                        team = Reds and line<-130 and p:HF and 6 <= po:runs and date >= 20120428



                        FADE: The Dodgers (66-99 -28.8% ROI)

                        s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5



                        PLAY: The Twins (542-381 +9.7% ROI)

                        (p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)



                        -----------

                        OU

                        UNDER: The Angels are 0-17 OU as a home dog after a game in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.

                        team = Angels and HD and p:TLOB < 5 and date >= 20140622



                        OVER: The Athletics are 14-0 OU as a favorite in the last game of a series after a home loss in which they scored first.

                        team=Athletics and F and p:HL and p:SF>0 and LGS and date>=20090902



                        UNDER: Cubs/Giants (465-231-37 +26.0% ROI)

                        season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)



                        ________________

                        SU

                        Reds
                        D-Backs
                        Twins

                        OU

                        Orioles/Angels Under
                        Mariners/Athletics Over
                        Cubs/Giants Under
                        ___________________________________

                        If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...______________
                        Comment
                        • 2daBank
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-26-09
                          • 88966

                          #642
                          Loving dbags again. Doyers historic run has clearly created some nice value in this series. Seems folks losing site of the fact zona a really good team in their own right. I'd argue better lineup, minus the closer a damn near equally good pen (hate Rodney and am nervous every 9th inning I play zona when that crooked hat clown comes in!), obviously doyers 1-2 punch of kershaw (when healthy) and darvish has a edge over most team but zona starting pitching very solid.

                          I think wood has gotten little shaky of late. I read somewhere his velo has been dipping of late, been trying to find somewhere to see this but so far without success (would you happen to know where I can get pitchers game to game velo numbers?) makes sense there some truth to it as his strikeouts have dropped every month since peaking in may.
                          Comment
                          • thekoreanmang
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-17-14
                            • 1422

                            #643
                            Originally posted by FUqer
                            Now if Mariners can comeback and win it will be a decent night.
                            Wow. That's insane! Great stuff, FUQer!
                            Comment
                            • FUqer
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-22-15
                              • 3968

                              #644
                              Originally posted by thekoreanmang
                              Wow. That's insane! Great stuff, FUQer!
                              Thanks, getting better and better with more experience.
                              Comment
                              • FUqer
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-22-15
                                • 3968

                                #645
                                Originally posted by 2daBank
                                Loving dbags again. Doyers historic run has clearly created some nice value in this series. Seems folks losing site of the fact zona a really good team in their own right. I'd argue better lineup, minus the closer a damn near equally good pen (hate Rodney and am nervous every 9th inning I play zona when that crooked hat clown comes in!), obviously doyers 1-2 punch of kershaw (when healthy) and darvish has a edge over most team but zona starting pitching very solid.

                                I think wood has gotten little shaky of late. I read somewhere his velo has been dipping of late, been trying to find somewhere to see this but so far without success (would you happen to know where I can get pitchers game to game velo numbers?) makes sense there some truth to it as his strikeouts have dropped every month since peaking in may.
                                The D-Backs are a different team at Home vs lefties also, 8-2 SU, 7.8 RPG and 7-2-1 Over, lol compared to them on the Road where they were averaging under 2 RPG all season and now at 2.4 RPG.

                                Dodgers just 3-8 specifically in that trend above.

                                LoL, still getting to know some of the nicknames for teams, Doyers is a new one I been seeing, but I have got to know Rodney pretty well from him screwing me a few times this year, once gave up 4 runs vs the Rockies in the 9th, I remember it like it was yesterday.
                                Comment
                                • 2daBank
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-26-09
                                  • 88966

                                  #646
                                  Zona offense very much like the Rockies used to be where they great at home and of course at coors and struggle most other places.
                                  Comment
                                  • FUqer
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-22-15
                                    • 3968

                                    #647
                                    Run down on my thoughts so far.


                                    Red Sox - mainly for pitching advantages, both teams are familiar with each pitcher with Porcello having much better success.

                                    Braves - Sweep angle on Home Favorites, 11-1 L12 in NL. I still need to research match-up more.

                                    Yankees - I liked them before and after the pitching change, but they are popular and pricey, so they may just have to go into a parlay.

                                    Padres - Travis Wood has shut them out 4 out of his last 5 starts, but those were a few seasons ago. The Reds are 3-18 L21 vs a lefty. That 25-0 trend for the Reds does scare me a little though.

                                    Cardinals, Athletics, Orioles - I like but need to research match-ups more.

                                    Mets - I like the Mets vs lefties lately, even though they have faced a couple of tough ones their last couple and didn't too well.

                                    D-Backs - Different team at Home vs lefties, 8-2 SU, and Wood is showing some signs of regression after a hot first half. Also a nice SDQL trend above says to fade the Dodgers. I been saying there is no way that 70% holds up for long, I just wish they were priced a little higher. I think that is saying something in itself that they are so low priced and on one of the best runs ever.

                                    A couple of totals I like but haven't got too far into.

                                    Padres/Reds Under
                                    Yankees/Blue Jays Over
                                    Phillies/Braves Under
                                    Pirates/Tigers Under
                                    Last edited by FUqer; 08-09-17, 11:38 AM. Reason: correction.
                                    Comment
                                    • 2daBank
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-26-09
                                      • 88966

                                      #648
                                      Lean over in Tampa but then I ran into how good porcello has been at the trop throughout his career. Stands to reason tampons should score off him cause he allows bombs and Tampa pretty hr dependant. His stellar record down there kinda worries me tho and certainly makes a Boston play understandable. I'd expect Sox to score their fair share off odorizzi.
                                      Comment
                                      • FUqer
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-22-15
                                        • 3968

                                        #649
                                        Database hasn't updated Giants as favorites yet, but when it does it will trigger a hot trend for losing teams favored over winning teams in the NL.

                                        26-5 (2.32, 83.9%) avg line: -128.2 / 118.2 on / against: +$1,976 / -$2,031 ROI: +49.7% / -65.1%
                                        20-11 (1.02, 64.5%) avg line: 152.3 / -173.5 on / against: +$1,992 / -$2,372 ROI: +61.2% / -43.2%
                                        11-20-0 (-0.65, 35.5%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$1,072 / +$775 ROI: -31.8% / +22.4%
                                        Comment
                                        • FUqer
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-22-15
                                          • 3968

                                          #650
                                          I just can't trust the Giants going against the Cubs with another lefty who have 3 teams now breathing down their neck in their division.

                                          Glad I missed the Mets game, looks like it's heading to be like their last few vs lefties, lopsided Overs.
                                          Comment
                                          • FUqer
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-22-15
                                            • 3968

                                            #651
                                            Thought the Braves were avoiding 3 game sweep, but lot's of 2 game series and database is acting buggy on them, so that angle on them is no good. They have lost 10 out of last 12 vs the Phillies tho.
                                            Comment
                                            • FUqer
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-22-15
                                              • 3968

                                              #652
                                              Wednesday Plays 8/9


                                              ยป-Red Sox -1 +102
                                              __________________________
                                              Comment
                                              • FUqer
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-22-15
                                                • 3968

                                                #653
                                                Originally posted by FUqer
                                                Wednesday Plays 8/9


                                                ยป-Red Sox -1 +102
                                                ยป-D-Backs +105

                                                __________________________
                                                Addition.
                                                Comment
                                                • FUqer
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-22-15
                                                  • 3968

                                                  #654
                                                  Originally posted by FUqer
                                                  Wednesday Plays 8/9


                                                  ยป-Red Sox -1 +102
                                                  ยป-D-Backs +105
                                                  ยป-Athletics -109
                                                  __________________________
                                                  Addition. A's have been good in day games and I think have won 5 or 6 in a row at Home in day games. Line starting to move in their favor.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • FUqer
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-22-15
                                                    • 3968

                                                    #655
                                                    Originally posted by FUqer
                                                    Wednesday Plays 8/9


                                                    ยป-Red Sox -1 +102
                                                    ยป-D-Backs +105
                                                    ยป-Athletics -109

                                                    ยป-Parlay: (Orioles -131/ Yankees -171) +179
                                                    __________________________
                                                    Addition.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • FUqer
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-22-15
                                                      • 3968

                                                      #656
                                                      Another totals parlay. The Win/Loss don't go on my record on these but the Win/Loss money does. Didn't need to juice last night, but still worth the extra few cents in this case.

                                                      Parlay: $1.95 to win 1 Unit

                                                      Dodgers/D-Backs Over 8 -147
                                                      Royals/Cardinals Over 8 -132
                                                      Yankees/Blue Jays Over 8.5 -139
                                                      Phillies/Braves Under 9.5 -139
                                                      Mariners/Athletics Over 9.5 -129
                                                      Padres/Reds Under 9.5 -139
                                                      Comment
                                                      • FUqer
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-22-15
                                                        • 3968

                                                        #657
                                                        Early Total Projections for tomorrow.


                                                        LAD@ARI (8.2) U9.5 (-1.3)
                                                        NYY@TOR (8.1) U9 (-0.9)
                                                        HOU@CHW (8.7) U9.5 (-0.8)

                                                        MIA@WAS (8.9) U9.5 (-0.6)
                                                        SD@CIN (8.9) O8.5 (+0.4)

                                                        KC@STL (8.8) O8.5 (+0.3)
                                                        PIT@DET (9.2) U9.5 (-0.3)
                                                        NYM@PHI (8.3) O8 (+0.3)
                                                        LAA@SEA (7.8) O7.5 (+0.3)
                                                        BAL@OAK (9.3) U9.5 (-0.2)
                                                        MIN@MIL (9.2) O9 (+0.2)
                                                        CLE@TB (7.8) U8 (-0.2)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • FUqer
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-22-15
                                                          • 3968

                                                          #658
                                                          Wednesday Results 8/9

                                                          ยป-Red Sox -1 +102
                                                          ยป-D-Backs +105
                                                          ยป-Athletics -109

                                                          ยป-Parlay: (Orioles -131/ Yankees -171) +179
                                                          __________________________
                                                          Yesterday 1-3 = -2.09
                                                          ___________________________
                                                          Bankroll = 2598 / 3000
                                                          ___________________________
                                                          Since All Star Break

                                                          ML = 36-38 for +1.29
                                                          (Dogs = 19-20)
                                                          (Favs = 17-18)

                                                          RL = 22-10 for +12.40

                                                          O/U = 28-31 for -5.25
                                                          (Overs = 17-13)
                                                          (Unders = 11-18)

                                                          Parlays = 2-2 for +2.07

                                                          Total = 88-81-8 +10.51
                                                          __________________________
                                                          Recent Results

                                                          9th = 1-3 for -2.09
                                                          8th = 4-3 for +2.47
                                                          7th = 3-2 for +1.47
                                                          6th = 2-3-1 for -0.95
                                                          5th = 3-2 for +1.14
                                                          4th = 4-3 for +0.69
                                                          3rd = 2-0 for +2.00
                                                          2nd = 3-0 for +3.52
                                                          1st = 2-7-1 for -5.27
                                                          31st = 1-2 for -1.05
                                                          30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
                                                          29th = 2-3 for -1.19
                                                          28th = 9-4 for +5.59
                                                          27th = 3-3 for -0.09
                                                          26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
                                                          25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
                                                          24th = 4-2 for +2.28
                                                          23th = 2-1 for +1.17
                                                          ____________________________
                                                          Comment
                                                          • FUqer
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-22-15
                                                            • 3968

                                                            #659
                                                            SDQL 8/10

                                                            ALL = Yesterday 4-2 (Total 116-105)
                                                            SU = Yesterday 2-1(Total 75-53)
                                                            OU = Yesterday 2-1 (Total 41-52)

                                                            Pre All-Star Break

                                                            ALL - (Total 441-346)
                                                            SU - (Total 223-171)
                                                            OU - (Total 218-185)
                                                            ---------------------------------

                                                            SU

                                                            PLAY: The Yankees (62-29 +39.9% ROI)

                                                            p:hits - po:hits >= 10 and A and day = Thursday and line <= 165



                                                            PLAY: The Tigers (80-29 +30.7% ROI)

                                                            H and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and season > 2008 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and rest = 0



                                                            PLAY: The D-Backs and Nationals (1013-609 +11.6% ROI)

                                                            H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



                                                            FADE: The White Sox are 1-14 SU in the last game if a series vs a non divisional opponent when they face a divsional opponent next game.

                                                            team=White Sox and LGS and noIV and NDIV and 20160720<=date



                                                            FADE: The Marlins are 2-21 SU as a dog of more than 135 in the last game of a series after a game in which they did not hit a home run.

                                                            team = Marlins and line>135 and p:HR = 0 and LGS and season >= 2014



                                                            PLAY: The Twins are 16-0 RL off a road game in which they had six or fewer hits and it is after the All-Star break and not a series opener.

                                                            team = Twins and SG > 1 and p:A and p:hits <= 6 and AASB and date >= 20150909



                                                            -----------

                                                            OU

                                                            UNDER: The Reds are 0-18 OU in not the first game of a series as a home 140-plus favorite after they scored six-plus runs.

                                                            team = Reds and SG > 1 and H and line<=-140 and 6 <= p:runs and date >= 20121009



                                                            UNDER: The Reds are 2-18-1 OU since October 9th, 2012 as a 130+ home favorite after a game in which they had multiple multiple-run innings and it is not the first game of a series.team = Reds and H and line<-130 and p:MRI>=2 and SG > 1 and date >= 20121009



                                                            ________________

                                                            SU

                                                            Yankees
                                                            Tigers
                                                            D-Backs
                                                            Nationals
                                                            Astros
                                                            Mets


                                                            OU

                                                            Padres/Reds Under
                                                            Royals/Cardinals Under
                                                            ___________________________________

                                                            If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
                                                            Last edited by FUqer; 08-10-17, 01:43 PM. Reason: Added Cardinals Under, trend in later post. Added Mets.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • FUqer
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-22-15
                                                              • 3968

                                                              #660
                                                              Thursday Plays 8/10

                                                              ยป-Padres/Reds FF Under 4 +110
                                                              __________________________
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 2daBank
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-26-09
                                                                • 88966

                                                                #661
                                                                Man it tough for me to get behind a under on what a pretty low total at that bandbox in cincy (just noticed at least the juice flipping, when I was looking the under 8.5 was juiced).

                                                                I do like both the kids starting but lamet fly ball rate is concerning as is both their walk rates. Couple walks at that park and next thing you know a routine fly ball leaves the yard and ya staring at a crooked number.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FUqer
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-22-15
                                                                  • 3968

                                                                  #662
                                                                  Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                                  Man it tough for me to get behind a under on what a pretty low total at that bandbox in cincy (just noticed at least the juice flipping, when I was looking the under 8.5 was juiced).

                                                                  I do like both the kids starting but lamet fly ball rate is concerning as is both their walk rates. Couple walks at that park and next thing you know a routine fly ball leaves the yard and ya staring at a crooked number.
                                                                  And an Over umpire? to boot it looks like and opposite of my model and Reds on 4 str8 Overs.

                                                                  I'm guessing the W/L by umps are for Home teams?

                                                                  That's why I had to go first five with + money, I like the starters, but not the pens and they are used up pretty good. The Padres have to go back out West to face the Dodgers and I'm hoping that will have some affect. Stadium will be mostly empty with no energy and a nice 18-0 Under SDQL trend for the game. It's one of those ones if I was a professional gambler doing it for a living and betting huge money, I might not of played it, but I like action.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 2daBank
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                                    • 88966

                                                                    #663
                                                                    Yea the w/l is for home team. Covers even breaks down record by line.

                                                                    Action junkie in me says reds rl but I don't like home team rl unless I expect a high scoring game.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • FUqer
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-22-15
                                                                      • 3968

                                                                      #664
                                                                      I been there since 2011 back when I only did NFL parlays, just hit over 50% on both sides and totals with over 1000 games for each for the season in MLB after starting really bad start. I've seen the Umpire stuff there, just never paid it much attention, they've gotten a lot better the last year or so on their info page.

                                                                      For today the Mariners will prolly at least be a parlay play, and I like the Yankees and I need to rerun the Brewers game with the pitching change to a lefty. And I kind of like the Over in the Orioles/Athletics game especially with the wind, I suppose I better start checking ump info and I still need to check bullpen usage on that one as well.

                                                                      I think the Cardinals, Brewers, and Astros are all in good sweep spots today, need to check SDQL though to be exact.

                                                                      Only two travel concerns would be the Padres going back West to face the Dodgers and the Astros going back to Texas @ the Rangers.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • OlDirtyBaztid
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 05-28-17
                                                                        • 953

                                                                        #665
                                                                        Originally posted by FUqer
                                                                        Thursday Plays 8/10

                                                                        ยป-Padres/Reds FF Under 4 +110
                                                                        __________________________
                                                                        caught this one at 4.5. good luck to us
                                                                        Comment
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