Under umpire streakers

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  • DirkDiggler
    SBR High Roller
    • 08-21-14
    • 104

    #491
    I also saw Hoye listed for STL
    Comment
    • mitch51
      SBR MVP
      • 05-15-12
      • 4587

      #492
      Stat had Eddings and Covers none listed until recently. Other sources say another umpire is on the AZ/SD game. We will stay away from that game.

      Also, Hoye is listed for STL but the factors are not lining up right for us to take.

      Hope this helps.

      Ali
      Comment
      • Ebumdude
        SBR MVP
        • 11-15-12
        • 2189

        #493
        Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
        bos 7-5 *win
        nyy 2-3 *win
        atl 6-2 *win
        oak 3-4*lose
        tex 4-3*win
        arz 5-5*lose

        based on my previous post. I might be onto something.

        Last night the Phillies shut down the braves.

        Tonight I placed a wager on the braves to go under.

        Look what's about to cash.....


        i think you MAY be on to something as well.
        Last edited by Ebumdude; 09-02-14, 09:38 PM. Reason: Sbr's autocorrect
        Comment
        • IrishLuck777
          SBR Sharp
          • 01-25-14
          • 332

          #494
          this looks pretty interesting... how far has it been back tested if at all?
          Comment
          • Ebumdude
            SBR MVP
            • 11-15-12
            • 2189

            #495
            This is only the first time I have done it. Only game to see a shut out since JM's post, I believe was last night.
            Last edited by Ebumdude; 09-02-14, 09:38 PM.
            Comment
            • mitch51
              SBR MVP
              • 05-15-12
              • 4587

              #496
              Late evening update:


              Tues, 9/02/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

              #955 UN 7.5 -125 MIL/CUBS 1.25u/1.00u
              Barry 8ov/16un L24gms 66.7%


              0-1 -1.25u
              87-56-7 +19.43u 61.0%




              Tues, 9/02/14 DOGS

              #979 CIN +130 1.00u/1.30u

              #973 CWS +120 1.00u/1.20u


              1-1 +.20u
              142-146 +11.20u 49.3%




              Tues, 9/02/14 FUN

              #970 TB -110 1.00u/.91u

              #962 SD -115 1.00u/.87u

              1-1 -.13u
              28-17 +7.25u 62.2%



              Goodnight all

              Ali & Mitch
              Comment
              • mitch51
                SBR MVP
                • 05-15-12
                • 4587

                #497
                Good morning all (did my homework last night with the early game)



                Wed, 9/03/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

                #901 UN 7.5 -125 PHI/ATL 1.25u/1.00u
                Davidson 9ov/16un L25gm 64.0%

                #909 UN 7 -105 NYM/MIA 1.05u/1.00u
                Muchlinski 9ov/16un/L25gms 64.0%


                #913 UN 6.5 -125 AZ/SD 1.25u/1.00u
                Blaser 7ov/14un L21gms 66.7%



                Wed, 9/03/14 DOGS


                #915 SEA +110 1.00u/1.10u
                #917 DET +115 1.00u/1.15u
                #925 CWS +115 1.00u/1.15u
                #913 AZ +120 1.00u/1.20u


                Wed, 9/03/14 FUN


                #922 TB -124 1.00u/.81u


                GLTA


                Ali & Mitch
                Comment
                • J.M. Disciple
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 11-16-10
                  • 5154

                  #498
                  Last three days been following the juice for the o/u on my book meaning if it was o-115 i played over or vice versa if both were the same i stayed away. Been trying to follow that because over a short sample it showed winning record most days so figured it was just about how i bet all the games. Down 6u with sd u6.5 pending not looking good. Using a half unit increment system, Going to try and ride it out up to 50u loss. Tomorrow will have 3u bets each game to cover what is likely down 8.5u. Make sense? Guess i need to do some more research on this. I was testing the odds using sbr score and odds.

                  Think I am 12-12 this week for the o/u which is ok just meaning the this system and on3 system has not done well for the selective games I have bet with them. Probably be up if I did bet every game.
                  Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 09-03-14, 11:47 PM.
                  Comment
                  • mitch51
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-15-12
                    • 4587

                    #499
                    Late evening update


                    Wed, 9/03/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

                    #901 UN 7.5 -125 PHI/ATL 1.25u/1.00u
                    Davidson 9ov/16un L25gm 64.0%

                    #909 UN 7 -105 NYM/MIA 1.05u/1.00u PUSH (wrong umpire-already bet)
                    Muchlinski 9ov/16un/L25gms 64.0%

                    #913 UN 6.5 -125 AZ/SD 1.25u/1.00u

                    Blaser 7ov/14un L21gms 66.7%

                    0-2-1 -2.50u
                    87-58-8 +16.93u 60.0%





                    Wed, 9/03/14 DOGS

                    #915 SEA +110 1.00u/1.10u

                    #917 DET +115 1.00u/1.15u

                    #925 CWS +115 1.00u/1.15u

                    #913 AZ +120 1.00u/1.20u


                    2-2 +.16u
                    144-148 +11.36u 49.3%





                    Wed, 9/03/14 FUN

                    #922 TB -124 1.00u/.81u


                    0-1 -1.00u
                    28-18 +6.25u 61.0%



                    Goodnight all


                    Ali & Mitch
                    Comment
                    • RollinDo
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 09-04-13
                      • 13322

                      #500
                      Been a rough last few days for Unders.
                      Really thought SD pitching would do its part on Wed. To snag that Under.
                      Comment
                      • SBRMAN23
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 01-07-11
                        • 6905

                        #501
                        Should of had a terrible safe call at home by Mlb then 9th inning they want to put in mlb debut pitchers to walk bases loaded and give up the one run that put it over. Now you have to cap that bs also into games unbelievable baseball
                        Comment
                        • alamo
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 02-21-09
                          • 7131

                          #502
                          Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                          bos 7-5 *win
                          nyy 2-3 *win
                          atl 6-2 *win
                          oak 3-4*lose
                          tex 4-3*win
                          arz 5-5*lose

                          based on my previous post. I might be onto something.
                          Are we saying by using that system the following three games would be plays tonight...

                          Pirates
                          Reds
                          Cards

                          Based on the fact that these teams got shut out last night (Wednesday)
                          Comment
                          • mitch51
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-15-12
                            • 4587

                            #503
                            Originally posted by SBRMAN23
                            Should of had a terrible safe call at home by Mlb then 9th inning they want to put in mlb debut pitchers to walk bases loaded and give up the one run that put it over. Now you have to cap that bs also into games unbelievable baseball
                            Getting kind of hard to cap for this. It's getting to be like the Twilight Zone. And a lot of pitching goes into capping both unders and dogs. Recreational drugs might help things, I guess.
                            Comment
                            • mitch51
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-15-12
                              • 4587

                              #504
                              Good morning


                              Thurs, 9/4/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

                              NONE




                              Thurs, 9/04/14 DOGS

                              #964 MIN +115 1.00u/1.15u



                              Thurs, 9/04/14 FUN

                              #961 SEA -125 1.00u/.80u




                              GLTA

                              Ali & Mitch
                              Comment
                              • J.M. Disciple
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 11-16-10
                                • 5154

                                #505
                                Originally posted by alamo
                                Are we saying by using that system the following three games would be plays tonight...

                                Pirates
                                Reds
                                Cards

                                Based on the fact that these teams got shut out last night (Wednesday)
                                I would not call it a system over a small tested sample of just this season. Right now I am just live betting following the juice and a money management strategy for the totals as I posted yesterday. If someone wants to do research that is able to data mine really fast I am sure there is a program that will tell us the results for the o/u based on when a team scores 0 runs. I only tested this season which was 54%. I have been busy at work and I have not done anything further then that.

                                Good Luck if you take them today. I see my book has most games at over (-115) for almost every game except Tb which is under at -120.
                                Comment
                                • alamo
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-21-09
                                  • 7131

                                  #506
                                  Thx JM for the reply. Sorry, to ask again but is the way you pick the under based on the team who is shut out the night before. In last nights case three teams were shut out so do we go under on their games.

                                  Apologies to Mitch and Ali for temporarily hi jacking their thread.
                                  Comment
                                  • mitch51
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-15-12
                                    • 4587

                                    #507
                                    Originally posted by alamo
                                    Thx JM for the reply. Sorry, to ask again but is the way you pick the under based on the team who is shut out the night before. In last nights case three teams were shut out so do we go under on their games.

                                    Apologies to Mitch and Ali for temporarily hi jacking their thread.
                                    No problem. That's what it's here for.
                                    Comment
                                    • Ebumdude
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-15-12
                                      • 2189

                                      #508
                                      Originally posted by alamo
                                      Thx JM for the reply. Sorry, to ask again but is the way you pick the under based on the team who is shut out the night before. In last nights case three teams were shut out so do we go under on their games.

                                      Apologies to Mitch and Ali for temporarily hi jacking their thread.
                                      ive only tested this theory with one game last week and it worked. One game doesn't mean success.

                                      This has been a crazy week for me. Once the smoke settles, I'll try to research or even throw a few units to test it.
                                      Comment
                                      • J.M. Disciple
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 11-16-10
                                        • 5154

                                        #509
                                        Big day following the total juice for the o/u's whatever is -115 or more for whatever side. Looking like a 7-1 day to turn a -8.4u week into what is looking like +6u week now pending SD and stl on the overs. Maybe I am onto something over a short live sample. Back to small bets with my .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3.0 system. So simple its genius....


                                        Anyways I have a question about this thread. Why is it you play Favorites risking 1u and dogs risking 1u to win more then 1u. Shouldn't you just risk 1u on favorites and bet to win 1u on dogs. Today for example you are down .2u but if you bet dogs .87 to win 1 and favorite 1 to win .8 it would show a smaller loss right?
                                        Comment
                                        • mitch51
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-15-12
                                          • 4587

                                          #510
                                          Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

                                          Anyways I have a question about this thread. Why is it you play Favorites risking 1u and dogs risking 1u to win more then 1u. Shouldn't you just risk 1u on favorites and bet to win 1u on dogs. Today for example you are down .2u but if you bet dogs .87 to win 1 and favorite 1 to win .8 it would show a smaller loss right?
                                          You're right.

                                          Ali
                                          Comment
                                          • mitch51
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-15-12
                                            • 4587

                                            #511
                                            Evening update

                                            Thurs, 9/4/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

                                            NONE

                                            87-58-8 +16.93u 60.0%




                                            Thurs, 9/04/14 DOGS

                                            #964 MIN +115 1.00u/1.15u

                                            0-1 -1.00u
                                            144-149 +10.36u 49.1%



                                            Thurs, 9/04/14 FUN

                                            #961 SEA -125 1.00u/.80u

                                            1-0 +.80u
                                            29-18 +7.05u 61.7%



                                            Goodnight all


                                            Ali & Mitch
                                            Comment
                                            • J.M. Disciple
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 11-16-10
                                              • 5154

                                              #512
                                              turned a .9u profit on the week. I thought SD was going over in the 8th with bases loaded and 1out. Only got 1 run in though. As other guy said I am not trying to hi-jack any thread. Just share money management strategies that I found to be of some success and bounce off ideas from other baseball betters.

                                              I have had someone test betting all over or all under every game using a 5 - 10 - 15 - 20 - 25 - 30 etc strategy before and it would go up like 100 units at one point and finish the season where you would be down over 100 units, but that was betting all overs or all unders was not following the juice of the site which is mixed over and under.

                                              The books look at their simulations as if its 53% of going over they charge -115 juice or -120 juice cause they have a small edge on it and vice versa with the under. You will never long run get a system where you can flat bet every game blindly and show a profit because the books are just too smart. People get paid 100s of thousands to set these odds so I doubt any of us are smarter then them or they would not get paid that much. All about being on the ship when water and calm and jumping off when the hurricane comes and waiting for smooth waters again.

                                              Good night and Good tomorrow.
                                              Comment
                                              • mitch51
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-15-12
                                                • 4587

                                                #513
                                                Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                                turned a .9u profit on the week. I thought SD was going over in the 8th with bases loaded and 1out. Only got 1 run in though. As other guy said I am not trying to hi-jack any thread. Just share money management strategies that I found to be of some success and bounce off ideas from other baseball betters.

                                                I have had someone test betting all over or all under every game using a 5 - 10 - 15 - 20 - 25 - 30 etc strategy before and it would go up like 100 units at one point and finish the season where you would be down over 100 units, but that was betting all overs or all unders was not following the juice of the site which is mixed over and under.

                                                The books look at their simulations as if its 53% of going over they charge -115 juice or -120 juice cause they have a small edge on it and vice versa with the under. You will never long run get a system where you can flat bet every game blindly and show a profit because the books are just too smart. People get paid 100s of thousands to set these odds so I doubt any of us are smarter then them or they would not get paid that much. All about being on the ship when water and calm and jumping off when the hurricane comes and waiting for smooth waters again.

                                                Good night and Good tomorrow.
                                                One of the best posts ever in this thread. Vegas is raping us on under prices. Vegas is tough to beat, and they get tougher as the year goes on.
                                                Comment
                                                • RollinDo
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 09-04-13
                                                  • 13322

                                                  #514
                                                  Originally posted by mitch51
                                                  One of the best posts ever in this thread. Vegas is raping us on under prices. Vegas is tough to beat, and they get tougher as the year goes on.
                                                  Yep...like that Cincy Under yesterday...Easy $$ right?
                                                  Opened at 8 and down to 7 before 1st pitch...I was suckered in.
                                                  Also seeing a lot of games I bet Under and 5-6 runs scored with 2 outs...you just don't expect that.
                                                  Both my Unders that lost yesterday (went 1-2) had 6 runs scored with 2 outs and nobody on base.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mitch51
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-15-12
                                                    • 4587

                                                    #515
                                                    Morning all


                                                    Fri, 9/5/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

                                                    #925 UN 8 -110 LAA/MIN 1.10u/1.00u
                                                    BWelke 10ov/17un L27gms 63.0%




                                                    Fri, 9/5/14 DOGS


                                                    #902 CUBS +112 1.00u/1.12u
                                                    #907 METS +107 1.00u/1.07u
                                                    #917 KC +110 1.00u/1.10u
                                                    #921 BAL +130 1.00u/1.30u
                                                    #909 STL +106 1.00u/1.06u
                                                    #911 SD +115 1.00/1.15u



                                                    Fri, 9/5/14 FUN


                                                    #919 TOR -113 1.00u/.88u



                                                    GLTA

                                                    Ali & Mitch
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ejoa
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 11-08-12
                                                      • 39

                                                      #516
                                                      Angels under looks good. Good luck
                                                      Comment
                                                      • RollinDo
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 09-04-13
                                                        • 13322

                                                        #517
                                                        I gotta go with Twins TT Under.
                                                        No way can I back an Under with Gascan Nolasco.
                                                        Angels shoukd be one of easiest wins of day, so better to go with -130 on the Twins Under than -165 on ML.
                                                        Make sense?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • mitch51
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-15-12
                                                          • 4587

                                                          #518
                                                          Evening update:



                                                          Fri, 9/5/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

                                                          #925 UN 8 -110 LAA/MIN 1.10u/1.00u
                                                          BWelke 10ov/17un L27gms 63.0%

                                                          0-1 -1.10u
                                                          87-59-8 +15.83u 60.0%




                                                          Fri, 9/5/14 DOGS

                                                          #902 CUBS +112 1.00u/1.12u SUSPENDED (PUSH)
                                                          #907 METS +107 1.00u/1.07u

                                                          #917 KC +110 1.00u/1.10u

                                                          #921 BAL +130 1.00u/1.30u

                                                          #909 STL +106 1.00u/1.06u

                                                          #911 SD +115 1.00/1.15u


                                                          2-3 -.90u
                                                          146-152 +9.46u 49.0%




                                                          Fri, 9/5/14 FUN


                                                          #919 TOR -113 1.00u/.88u
                                                          0-1 -1.00u
                                                          28-19 +6.05u 59.6%




                                                          Goodnight all

                                                          Ali & Mitch
                                                          Comment
                                                          • J.M. Disciple
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 11-16-10
                                                            • 5154

                                                            #519
                                                            I was not able to bet anything, but just keeping an eye on what I would of played for the o/u following the juice using the SBR odds whatever total has the highest juice or a no play if the juice is equal. Would of been 8-3! if you count -107 / -103 on one of the games, probably would have skipped something so close in odds though and treated it as equal being less then 10c on the dollar.

                                                            Still looking for any of these programmers to follow SBR site to jump in and do a quick test on the percentage of this if its possible to run a program to test this.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • IrishLuck777
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 01-25-14
                                                              • 332

                                                              #520
                                                              JM you should post this idea/system in a new thread in a better area that you might be able to get some help in. I know myself and I am sure others are interested in seeing how it turns out, we just don't have the resources to help with the data mining process. Please keep us up to date!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • alamo
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 02-21-09
                                                                • 7131

                                                                #521
                                                                Good idea. Definitely a good idea for a new thread and I think would attract a lot of interest. Certainly looks like your on to something.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • funnyman
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 05-06-10
                                                                  • 606

                                                                  #522
                                                                  you're, not your. common mistake.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mitch51
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-15-12
                                                                    • 4587

                                                                    #523
                                                                    NO games today Saturday.

                                                                    Update later

                                                                    Ali & Mitch
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • J.M. Disciple
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 11-16-10
                                                                      • 5154

                                                                      #524
                                                                      I did think about running a thread, however I get tied up at work usually and often times cant even place all the bets. I could certainly start a thread, but seriously doubt it would run very smooth with my schedule. Worth a try I suppose.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • IrishLuck777
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 01-25-14
                                                                        • 332

                                                                        #525
                                                                        make a thread for someone to back test it. if it looks to be profitable ill run the thread next season
                                                                        Comment
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