Under umpire streakers

[DirkDiggler]

I also saw Hoye listed for STL

[mitch51]

Stat had Eddings and Covers none listed until recently. Other sources say another umpire is on the AZ/SD game. We will stay away from that game.

Also, Hoye is listed for STL but the factors are not lining up right for us to take.

Hope this helps.

Ali

[Ebumdude]

bos 7-5 *win
nyy 2-3 *win
atl 6-2 *win
oak 3-4*lose
tex 4-3*win
arz 5-5*lose

based on my previous post. I might be onto something.

Last night the Phillies shut down the braves.

Tonight I placed a wager on the braves to go under.

Look what's about to cash.....


i think you MAY be on to something as well.

[IrishLuck777]

this looks pretty interesting... how far has it been back tested if at all?

[Ebumdude]

This is only the first time I have done it. Only game to see a shut out since JM's post, I believe was last night.

[mitch51]

Late evening update:


Tues, 9/02/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

#955 UN 7.5 -125 MIL/CUBS 1.25u/1.00u
Barry 8ov/16un L24gms 66.7%


0-1 -1.25u
87-56-7 +19.43u 61.0%




Tues, 9/02/14 DOGS

#979 CIN +130 1.00u/1.30u
#973 CWS +120 1.00u/1.20u

1-1 +.20u
142-146 +11.20u 49.3%




Tues, 9/02/14 FUN

#970 TB -110 1.00u/.91u
#962 SD -115 1.00u/.87u
1-1 -.13u
28-17 +7.25u 62.2%



Goodnight all

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

Good morning all (did my homework last night with the early game)



Wed, 9/03/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

#901 UN 7.5 -125 PHI/ATL 1.25u/1.00u
Davidson 9ov/16un L25gm 64.0%

#909 UN 7 -105 NYM/MIA 1.05u/1.00u
Muchlinski 9ov/16un/L25gms 64.0%

#913 UN 6.5 -125 AZ/SD 1.25u/1.00u
Blaser 7ov/14un L21gms 66.7%



Wed, 9/03/14 DOGS

#915 SEA +110 1.00u/1.10u
#917 DET +115 1.00u/1.15u
#925 CWS +115 1.00u/1.15u
#913 AZ +120 1.00u/1.20u


Wed, 9/03/14 FUN

#922 TB -124 1.00u/.81u


GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[J.M. Disciple]

Last three days been following the juice for the o/u on my book meaning if it was o-115 i played over or vice versa if both were the same i stayed away. Been trying to follow that because over a short sample it showed winning record most days so figured it was just about how i bet all the games. Down 6u with sd u6.5 pending not looking good. Using a half unit increment system, Going to try and ride it out up to 50u loss. Tomorrow will have 3u bets each game to cover what is likely down 8.5u. Make sense? Guess i need to do some more research on this. I was testing the odds using sbr score and odds.

Think I am 12-12 this week for the o/u which is ok just meaning the this system and on3 system has not done well for the selective games I have bet with them. Probably be up if I did bet every game.

[mitch51]

Late evening update


Wed, 9/03/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

#901 UN 7.5 -125 PHI/ATL 1.25u/1.00u
Davidson 9ov/16un L25gm 64.0%

#909 UN 7 -105 NYM/MIA 1.05u/1.00u PUSH (wrong umpire-already bet)
Muchlinski 9ov/16un/L25gms 64.0%

#913 UN 6.5 -125 AZ/SD 1.25u/1.00u
Blaser 7ov/14un L21gms 66.7%

0-2-1 -2.50u
87-58-8 +16.93u 60.0%





Wed, 9/03/14 DOGS

#915 SEA +110 1.00u/1.10u
#917 DET +115 1.00u/1.15u
#925 CWS +115 1.00u/1.15u
#913 AZ +120 1.00u/1.20u

2-2 +.16u
144-148 +11.36u 49.3%





Wed, 9/03/14 FUN

#922 TB -124 1.00u/.81u

0-1 -1.00u
28-18 +6.25u 61.0%



Goodnight all

Ali & Mitch

[RollinDo]

Been a rough last few days for Unders.
Really thought SD pitching would do its part on Wed. To snag that Under.

[SBRMAN23]

Should of had a terrible safe call at home by Mlb then 9th inning they want to put in mlb debut pitchers to walk bases loaded and give up the one run that put it over. Now you have to cap that bs also into games unbelievable baseball

[alamo]

bos 7-5 *win
nyy 2-3 *win
atl 6-2 *win
oak 3-4*lose
tex 4-3*win
arz 5-5*lose

based on my previous post. I might be onto something.

Are we saying by using that system the following three games would be plays tonight...

Pirates
Reds
Cards

Based on the fact that these teams got shut out last night (Wednesday)

[mitch51]

Should of had a terrible safe call at home by Mlb then 9th inning they want to put in mlb debut pitchers to walk bases loaded and give up the one run that put it over. Now you have to cap that bs also into games unbelievable baseball

Getting kind of hard to cap for this. It's getting to be like the Twilight Zone. And a lot of pitching goes into capping both unders and dogs. Recreational drugs might help things, I guess.

[mitch51]

Good morning


Thurs, 9/4/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

NONE




Thurs, 9/04/14 DOGS

#964 MIN +115 1.00u/1.15u



Thurs, 9/04/14 FUN

#961 SEA -125 1.00u/.80u




GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[J.M. Disciple]

Are we saying by using that system the following three games would be plays tonight...

Pirates
Reds
Cards

Based on the fact that these teams got shut out last night (Wednesday)

I would not call it a system over a small tested sample of just this season. Right now I am just live betting following the juice and a money management strategy for the totals as I posted yesterday. If someone wants to do research that is able to data mine really fast I am sure there is a program that will tell us the results for the o/u based on when a team scores 0 runs. I only tested this season which was 54%. I have been busy at work and I have not done anything further then that.

Good Luck if you take them today. I see my book has most games at over (-115) for almost every game except Tb which is under at -120.

[alamo]

Thx JM for the reply. Sorry, to ask again but is the way you pick the under based on the team who is shut out the night before. In last nights case three teams were shut out so do we go under on their games.

Apologies to Mitch and Ali for temporarily hi jacking their thread.

[mitch51]

Thx JM for the reply. Sorry, to ask again but is the way you pick the under based on the team who is shut out the night before. In last nights case three teams were shut out so do we go under on their games.

Apologies to Mitch and Ali for temporarily hi jacking their thread.

No problem. That's what it's here for.

[Ebumdude]

Thx JM for the reply. Sorry, to ask again but is the way you pick the under based on the team who is shut out the night before. In last nights case three teams were shut out so do we go under on their games.

Apologies to Mitch and Ali for temporarily hi jacking their thread.

ive only tested this theory with one game last week and it worked. One game doesn't mean success.

This has been a crazy week for me. Once the smoke settles, I'll try to research or even throw a few units to test it.

[J.M. Disciple]

Big day following the total juice for the o/u's whatever is -115 or more for whatever side. Looking like a 7-1 day to turn a -8.4u week into what is looking like +6u week now pending SD and stl on the overs. Maybe I am onto something over a short live sample. Back to small bets with my .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3.0 system. So simple its genius....


Anyways I have a question about this thread. Why is it you play Favorites risking 1u and dogs risking 1u to win more then 1u. Shouldn't you just risk 1u on favorites and bet to win 1u on dogs. Today for example you are down .2u but if you bet dogs .87 to win 1 and favorite 1 to win .8 it would show a smaller loss right?

[mitch51]

Anyways I have a question about this thread. Why is it you play Favorites risking 1u and dogs risking 1u to win more then 1u. Shouldn't you just risk 1u on favorites and bet to win 1u on dogs. Today for example you are down .2u but if you bet dogs .87 to win 1 and favorite 1 to win .8 it would show a smaller loss right?

You're right.

Ali

[mitch51]

Evening update

Thurs, 9/4/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

NONE

87-58-8 +16.93u 60.0%




Thurs, 9/04/14 DOGS

#964 MIN +115 1.00u/1.15u

0-1 -1.00u
144-149 +10.36u 49.1%



Thurs, 9/04/14 FUN

#961 SEA -125 1.00u/.80u

1-0 +.80u
29-18 +7.05u 61.7%



Goodnight all

Ali & Mitch

[J.M. Disciple]

turned a .9u profit on the week. I thought SD was going over in the 8th with bases loaded and 1out. Only got 1 run in though. As other guy said I am not trying to hi-jack any thread. Just share money management strategies that I found to be of some success and bounce off ideas from other baseball betters.

I have had someone test betting all over or all under every game using a 5 - 10 - 15 - 20 - 25 - 30 etc strategy before and it would go up like 100 units at one point and finish the season where you would be down over 100 units, but that was betting all overs or all unders was not following the juice of the site which is mixed over and under.

The books look at their simulations as if its 53% of going over they charge -115 juice or -120 juice cause they have a small edge on it and vice versa with the under. You will never long run get a system where you can flat bet every game blindly and show a profit because the books are just too smart. People get paid 100s of thousands to set these odds so I doubt any of us are smarter then them or they would not get paid that much. All about being on the ship when water and calm and jumping off when the hurricane comes and waiting for smooth waters again.

Good night and Good tomorrow.

[mitch51]

turned a .9u profit on the week. I thought SD was going over in the 8th with bases loaded and 1out. Only got 1 run in though. As other guy said I am not trying to hi-jack any thread. Just share money management strategies that I found to be of some success and bounce off ideas from other baseball betters.

I have had someone test betting all over or all under every game using a 5 - 10 - 15 - 20 - 25 - 30 etc strategy before and it would go up like 100 units at one point and finish the season where you would be down over 100 units, but that was betting all overs or all unders was not following the juice of the site which is mixed over and under.

The books look at their simulations as if its 53% of going over they charge -115 juice or -120 juice cause they have a small edge on it and vice versa with the under. You will never long run get a system where you can flat bet every game blindly and show a profit because the books are just too smart. People get paid 100s of thousands to set these odds so I doubt any of us are smarter then them or they would not get paid that much. All about being on the ship when water and calm and jumping off when the hurricane comes and waiting for smooth waters again.

Good night and Good tomorrow.

One of the best posts ever in this thread. Vegas is raping us on under prices. Vegas is tough to beat, and they get tougher as the year goes on.

[RollinDo]

One of the best posts ever in this thread. Vegas is raping us on under prices. Vegas is tough to beat, and they get tougher as the year goes on.

Yep...like that Cincy Under yesterday...Easy $$ right?
Opened at 8 and down to 7 before 1st pitch...I was suckered in.
Also seeing a lot of games I bet Under and 5-6 runs scored with 2 outs...you just don't expect that.
Both my Unders that lost yesterday (went 1-2) had 6 runs scored with 2 outs and nobody on base.

[mitch51]

Morning all


Fri, 9/5/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

#925 UN 8 -110 LAA/MIN 1.10u/1.00u
BWelke 10ov/17un L27gms 63.0%




Fri, 9/5/14 DOGS

#902 CUBS +112 1.00u/1.12u
#907 METS +107 1.00u/1.07u
#917 KC +110 1.00u/1.10u
#921 BAL +130 1.00u/1.30u
#909 STL +106 1.00u/1.06u
#911 SD +115 1.00/1.15u



Fri, 9/5/14 FUN

#919 TOR -113 1.00u/.88u



GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[ejoa]

Angels under looks good. Good luck

[RollinDo]

I gotta go with Twins TT Under.
No way can I back an Under with Gascan Nolasco.
Angels shoukd be one of easiest wins of day, so better to go with -130 on the Twins Under than -165 on ML.
Make sense?

[mitch51]

Evening update:



Fri, 9/5/14 UNDER Umpire Streakers

#925 UN 8 -110 LAA/MIN 1.10u/1.00u
BWelke 10ov/17un L27gms 63.0%

0-1 -1.10u
87-59-8 +15.83u 60.0%




Fri, 9/5/14 DOGS

#902 CUBS +112 1.00u/1.12u SUSPENDED (PUSH)
#907 METS +107 1.00u/1.07u
#917 KC +110 1.00u/1.10u
#921 BAL +130 1.00u/1.30u
#909 STL +106 1.00u/1.06u
#911 SD +115 1.00/1.15u

2-3 -.90u
146-152 +9.46u 49.0%




Fri, 9/5/14 FUN

#919 TOR -113 1.00u/.88u 0-1 -1.00u
28-19 +6.05u 59.6%




Goodnight all

Ali & Mitch

[J.M. Disciple]

I was not able to bet anything, but just keeping an eye on what I would of played for the o/u following the juice using the SBR odds whatever total has the highest juice or a no play if the juice is equal. Would of been 8-3! if you count -107 / -103 on one of the games, probably would have skipped something so close in odds though and treated it as equal being less then 10c on the dollar.

Still looking for any of these programmers to follow SBR site to jump in and do a quick test on the percentage of this if its possible to run a program to test this.

[IrishLuck777]

JM you should post this idea/system in a new thread in a better area that you might be able to get some help in. I know myself and I am sure others are interested in seeing how it turns out, we just don't have the resources to help with the data mining process. Please keep us up to date!

[alamo]

Good idea. Definitely a good idea for a new thread and I think would attract a lot of interest. Certainly looks like your on to something.

[funnyman]

you're, not your. common mistake.

[mitch51]

NO games today Saturday.

Update later

Ali & Mitch

[J.M. Disciple]

I did think about running a thread, however I get tied up at work usually and often times cant even place all the bets. I could certainly start a thread, but seriously doubt it would run very smooth with my schedule. Worth a try I suppose.

[IrishLuck777]

make a thread for someone to back test it. if it looks to be profitable ill run the thread next season