Hey ST are you still on the A's vs M's, all the other series posted a home team winner. Felix in the first game makes it a tricky chase, I like the second game for sure if the M's pull it off.
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Yeah I'm still on it. We'll see what happens. A little nervous about this one, but i'm gonna chase it to the end. I debated about this one a lot today. Felix on the mound makes it tough, I probably should have taken a net -3 unit on this week and bowed out.Comment -
BOL, looking forward to see who you run with for the weekend.Comment -
Well, it all came through in the final game of the SEA @ OAK series. Man it's no fun when they come down to the last game. Just have to trust the research and the math, and have faith that i'm picking good series.
Results for series from 5/5 - 5/8
STL @ ATL (Game 2) +1 Unit
HOU @ DET (Game 1) +1 Unit
ARI @ MIL (Game 1) +1 Unit
SEA @ OAK (Game 4) +1 Unit
YTD: +12.37Comment -
Hopefully I can keep this going.....
5/9 - 5/11
CHC @ ATL
ARI @ CHW
MIN @ DET
HOU @ BALComment -
The exact 4 games I wrote down on Wednesday looking ahead.Originally posted by SToth22Comment -
With the Tigers' win this afternoon this set of series worked out well. Up 4 more units. I'll put my next set of picks out Monday
YTD: +16.37 UnitsComment -
After a good 4 unit weekend, there are only two plays I feel really confident about to start this week...
5/12 - 5/15
CHC @ STL
PIT @ MIL
The Cubs series is a 4 gamer at Busch Stadium, and the Pirates are historically AWFUL in Miluakee....Good LuckComment -
How about OAK over White Sox?Comment -
How about Washington over Arizona?Comment -
whtsox13, I only chase home teams through the series. I do think that that would probably be a safe play though. Keel, I'm just not sold on the A's. I know they are a division leader, I just feel like they're pitching is over performing. Combine that with the fact that the whitesox are tops in the AL in both runs and hits, doesn't give me the confidence to play this series.Comment -
Btw this has worked out well to the tune of +6 units so far.Originally posted by whtsox13Comment -
Cardinals and Brewers both pulled them out last night, and I cashed two more units.
YTD: +18.37Comment -
I also played the A's series for a winner. Haven't looked ahead much but the Giants start a 4 game series with the Marlins tomorrow, I'm on that one for sure.Originally posted by SToth22Comment -
Im also following you. Started last night with the Brewers and looking forward for the Giants Marlins series
keep it goingComment -
You are playing with fate here. I say quit the chasing now and flat bet the rest of the year.Comment -
I haven't really looked ahead yet to the next set. The Marlins are due to get better on the road, and their going to be hungry to beat the giants. That series may not be as much of a sure thing as I originally thought. To those following, do so at your own peril. As I said I'm a total newb to the sports gambling thing. I don't want to mess any of you guys up, and there are no doubt much more talented guys on here that you can tail. Either way thanks for the props. Currently my opening bet is only 2% of my bankroll.
Keel I don't know what else to tell you....I'm an engineer, I'm married to a mathematician. I believe in numbers. Not hunches, not intuition. Pitcher / Hitter matchups are often wrong. For me personally, flat betting is a bigger risk. I don't have time to do enough due diligence on enough games every day to make educated plays. And has been very evident even after hours of research even the top cappers are getting burned in baseball right now. Since 1998 right around 10% percent of ALL series end with the home team getting swept. This number is consistent every season. Most of those sweeps are either a very talented road team playing a very bad home team(eg. Detroit @ Houston) or tow evenly matched teams (eg. San Francisco @ Atlanta). I believe by avoiding those two situations you may be able to cut that 10% down to 5%, possibly even 2%. I am sure I am going to lose a few series throughout the year. However, my models suggest that I will wind up ahead at the end of the season. I also have no doubt that when I lose that series or 2 you'll be the first to show up and say I told you so. I understand this method doesn't appeal to everybody, but everybody can find something that works for them. Best of luck to you in your gambling endeavors however you try to play out the season.Comment -
Seems you are familiar with this?
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I am not the type to say I told you so. I am saying that being up almost 20 units for a whole season is good all by itself, no need to push the envelope. My opinion that's all. Good luck to both of us.Comment -
You should check out on3's thread. Its for a home chase where the series opens at -145 or higher. He has past records posted some where on the thread or last years thread. I like what you are doing here. I would be careful with game 1 of that SF series. Cain has had a rough year so far.Comment -
Sf 6-0
oak 5-2
det 5-0
arz 7-0
cubs 5-0
hou 6-0
Just going by the team rankings following top 3 teams and fading bottom 3 teams when they are on the road for 3 consecutive games. Oakland is the only team that managed to get swept twice bringing the overall record to 34-2 for a 3 game martingale chase. Series losses would of cost you:
oak vs tex
A (-103) 1.03 to win 1
b (-163) 3.30 to win 2.03
c (-166) 8.84 to win 5.33
series loss (13.17u)
oak vs sea
a) (-196) 1.96 to win 1
b) (-170) 5.03 to win 2.96
- (+112) 7.13 to win 7.99
series loss (14.12u)
So almost 28 units lost on those two series, but the bottom 3 teams have yet to sweep anyone on the road. Something to look at when making your choices.
Good Luck and keep up the winning.Comment -
Is there a web where they tell when a series start?Comment -
I appreciate everyone's comments and suggestions.
JM. I'm not sure where you are getting your data. Oakland was swept 1 time while they were the visiting team in Texas. As stated in several posts I am only betting on home teams so that is irrelevant as I wouldn't have had money on that series. They did lose 3 in a row to Seattle at home, however it was a 4 game series and they DID NOT get swept as they won the 4th game. Knowing before the series starts that it was a 4 game series weighs into my equation of picking them or not. If you look back I was a winner on that series.
I am aware of the MLB sweeps site. I wish it would get updated so I could get a feel where we are in the current system.Comment -
You are wrong.
The A's got swept in Oakland by the Rangers (04-21 to 04-23). Then the A's swept the Rangers in Arlington.
But as you said. I think i wouldnt put my money on this series.Comment -
Looking over the data on that site, I would just add you were only a little off on that 9.5%. As posted on the sweep site a 3 game series is (927/9278; 9.9%) and a 4 game series drops to only (127/2208; 5.7%) for a combined total of 3 and 4 game series (1054 / 11486; 9.1%)
Really like what you are doing here. I was thinking of making this into a blind type system such as on3's thread where you chase the home team for 3 games where they close as a -145 favorite or higher at home. Maybe if we just remove the bottom 10 teams and chase top 20 teams or so I wonder what the record would be. I am not one for backtesting as I know it takes a lot of time. Just wanted to go over the numbers before I decide to jump and maybe understand your system a little better.
Great Job and keep up the winnings.Comment -
You're right I looked at it quick on my phone and didn't catch it. Either way I didn't have money on either of them.Comment -
Do you guys know any sites that post projected odds for the next few days? Obviously it wouldn't be accurate and it would be based purely on projected starters. I'm just curious if its out there.Comment -
Going to be a bit tougher picking a couple series this weekend. I start by looking at the top 5 and bottom 5 teams, only 1 matchup and it's Colorado vs SD. The other bottom feeders are at home, SF being the only other top 5 team at home.Comment -
Right now I'm Leaning
PIT @ NYY (Pending weather)
MIA @ SF
SD @ COLComment -
I don't think the match-ups are correct here.Comment -
Oh. I see these may be series (upcoming).Comment -
I'm with you on those, BOL!Originally posted by SToth22Comment -
I am not sure how you are with record keeping, but was wondering if you could keep a record posted and upcoming plays you are on. A B C D format. Just to see how these teams are doing on the series you pick. Thanks for posting the upcoming series though. I will probably be on those as well. Please post when NYY is official. And thanks for doing all the hard work and research.
system: 0-0; Profit: 0.00u
Records:
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0
Upcoming plays
PIT @ nyy
Mia @ sf
Sd @ col
I am not sure what your current profit or record is in the thread. I would not mind helping keep track, but would need you update it first.Comment -
Good stuff going on here.
Im +2u with the Giants W from last night and the MIL series against PIT. I will be on the NYY and COL series too.Comment -
Looks like yanks gave postponed. Relying on COL now....Comment
