New guy getting started

Jimmy the Creep · 04-28-14, 03:21 PM

Welcome, we think a lot a like. BOL.

I'm 22-5 doing something similar .

5918mike · 04-28-14, 03:59 PM

Very interested in this concept, keep it updated

Dbldown0011 · 04-28-14, 04:08 PM

I'm kinda confused...

You're going to find 4 home teams that you think won't get swept in a series an bet the until they win. So if they win the first game in a series you won't bet them again right? But how does picking 4 teams that don't get swept make you 4-0 on your picks and +4 (4 what?) Lets say each of those teams lost the first two games of their series and won the 3rd. That means each of he four teams you'd have gone 1-2 on, and likely would have lost money, unless they were a huge dog in the game they won. Just trying to figure out your method here.

5918mike · 04-28-14, 04:15 PM

I assume he chases the previous loss on the next game to cover the previous loss and end up +1 unit on a win. In the end each series will leave you +1 unit.

CappinTerp · 04-28-14, 04:28 PM

Wish you good luck........for myself I do not like chases...........many times you will put too much money at risk..........and can go 92 -6 and still loose money................................BOL

5918mike · 04-28-14, 04:37 PM

It's basically a martingale system and 1 series loss is devastating and can wipe out a few weeks of wins, especially in a ML like the Giants series, -165 ish.

SToth22 · 04-28-14, 10:21 PM

Mike hit it on the head. If a team loses the first game, I bet enough to recover my loss plus 1 unit. If my team wins a game I'm done betting on that series and the series nets me 1 unit. As with any chase the key is knowing when to accept your loss and start the chase over. As I stated above about 9.5% of all series played end with the home team being swept. Should be fairly easy to make educated plays to avoid that 10%. I only bet on home teams, and only bet on series that are 3 games or longer. All numbers I have posted so far are in units. I really feel like the key to making this work is to stay disciplined.

Jimmy the Creep · 04-29-14, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by SToth22

Mike hit it on the head. If a team loses the first game, I bet enough to recover my loss plus 1 unit. If my team wins a game I'm done betting on that series and the series nets me 1 unit. As with any chase the key is knowing when to accept your loss and start the chase over. As I stated above about 9.5% of all series played end with the home team being swept. Should be fairly easy to make educated plays to avoid that 10%. I only bet on home teams, and only bet on series that are 3 games or longer. All numbers I have posted so far are in units. I really feel like the key to making this work is to stay disciplined.

I'm with ya bro. A loss does hurt but the key is to know when to fold em. And you must have discipline. Check out #11 in my thread. (Let's beat the book) My system is a little different but seems to work well. So far I'm 22-5. Next season I will wait out the first week. Then start to bet.

SToth22 · 04-29-14, 09:57 AM

I'm beginning to toy with the idea of not chasing the 3rd game when there is a potential sweep. Teams are actually a little over 50% when they have a chance to sweep. It may be better to just cut and run after game two and mimimize a 4 or 5 unit loss rather than having it jump up to a 15 unit loss if you're wrong on the third game.

dlunc3 · 04-29-14, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by SToth22

I'm beginning to toy with the idea of not chasing the 3rd game when there is a potential sweep. Teams are actually a little over 50% when they have a chance to sweep. It may be better to just cut and run after game two and mimimize a 4 or 5 unit loss rather than having it jump up to a 15 unit loss if you're wrong on the third game.

Betting A, B, A amount on a 3 game chase is never a bad idea. Much safer then chasing all three games.. When a series goes to C bet, you can always divide your losses and add them into your upcoming bets as well.

5918mike · 04-29-14, 10:53 AM

Hey SToth, have you done any analysis of the 10% visitor sweeps from years past or the 7 this year and see if there is any type of statistical data that jumps out, record? team? Anything that might help eliminate picking a series or teams, or might help picking a team or series.

SToth22 · 04-30-14, 06:06 AM

I looked at the lower half of the league and win% last year vs. who they swept. Virtually all of the teams in the lower half that wound up sweeping a team while on the road swept other losing teams. The one exception was the Angels who managed to sweep 6 teams while on the road last year. Now that it's may I think i'm going to start using a combination of RPI and ESPN weekly power ranking to try and pick the most lopsided matchups.

SToth22 · 04-30-14, 06:25 AM

This last set wasn't good, but it wasn't a complete bust either. Learned a few lessons for a novice, and am sure I will apply them going forward

1. Don't forget to check the weather!
2. If I'm not extremely busy, wait until closer to game time to put in my play.

Originally I was planning on playing 3 series, I wound up not playing the REDS series at all after the initial rain out, I'm also going to just take the loss in the first game of the Yankees series with the impending weather. I don't want to get caught up in chasing a series that isn't going to go 3 games.

Results 4/28 - 5/1

CIN: NO ACTION
SF: +1.17 (Late Matt Cain scratch improved my line)
NYY: -1.80

Weekly Result: -.63

YTD: +3.37 Units

DoubleR90 · 04-30-14, 06:38 AM

If you are betting on home teams avoiding sweeps you should check out the Cardinals today

5918mike · 04-30-14, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by DoubleR90

If you are betting on home teams avoiding sweeps you should check out the Cardinals today

Actually that is a perfect example of a series he would avoid playing. Better team playing on the road, especially their record on the road. Statistically you want to see the Brewers complete this sweep because it is one he did not pick and not picking the 10% of road sweeps is part of the equation here. SF won so that series is good, the Mariners won so it's another chase there but I really don't think the M's are sweeping in NY, but they do have a road sweep this year, the opener against the Angels.

SToth22 · 04-30-14, 10:20 AM

Mike,

Totally agree with you. STL winning today is definitely not a smart pick, IMHO. Going up against a good pitcher, with cold bats. Not to mention MIL has some serious momentum going right now. Also i'm going to bow out of the SEA v. NYY series losing 1.8 units. They most likely won't play tonight, making it a crap shoot if they play on thursday. If I was going to bet a team outside of the system I would start a chase of ATL tonight to win one of the next two in Miami

keel44 · 04-30-14, 10:44 AM

Any 3 game stretch is the same as facing the same team 3 times in a row. People have been looking at sweeps for years and there is just nothing special about it.

Jimmy the Creep · 04-30-14, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by SToth22

Mike,

Totally agree with you. STL winning today is definitely not a smart pick, IMHO. Going up against a good pitcher, with cold bats. Not to mention MIL has some serious momentum going right now. Also i'm going to bow out of the SEA v. NYY series losing 1.8 units. They most likely won't play tonight, making it a crap shoot if they play on thursday. If I was going to bet a team outside of the system I would start a chase of ATL tonight to win one of the next two in Miami

Bingo !

SToth22 · 04-30-14, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by keel44

Any 3 game stretch is the same as facing the same team 3 times in a row. People have been looking at sweeps for years and there is just nothing special about it.

Absolutely FALSE! In terms of baseball atleast. You put no value in seeing the same teams bullpen 3 days in a row? What about knocking a starter out early in game 1 and depleting the bullpen for the next day? What about a team just starting a home stand playing against a new team coming in who is finishing up 15 days in a row on the road.

Statistically speaking you're also wrong. Simple example. Last year the Diamondbacks won 3 games in a row 12 times (not including overlapping streaks of 5 or more). However they only completed 6 sweeps. Even a good team like the braves won 3 in a row 15 times (not including overlapping streaks of 5 or more), and only completed 12 sweeps. Those are hard numbers to back up that sweeping a team in a 3 game series has different statistical value than a random 3 game sampling

SToth22 · 04-30-14, 11:15 AM

Going the other way the Red Sox lost 3 in a row 5 times last year, but only got swept once. I wish I had time to do the analysis for every team in the league I just dont.

SToth22 · 04-30-14, 12:52 PM

Wound up chasing the Yanks again tonight. After checking the weather it looks like they may play, and if they play tonight they will definitely play tomorrow to make it a 3 game series as today is supposed to be the worst of it. If they don't play tonight I won't chase tomorrow....

keel44 · 05-01-14, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by SToth22

Absolutely FALSE! In terms of baseball atleast. You put no value in seeing the same teams bullpen 3 days in a row? What about knocking a starter out early in game 1 and depleting the bullpen for the next day? What about a team just starting a home stand playing against a new team coming in who is finishing up 15 days in a row on the road.

Statistically speaking you're also wrong. Simple example. Last year the Diamondbacks won 3 games in a row 12 times (not including overlapping streaks of 5 or more). However they only completed 6 sweeps. Even a good team like the braves won 3 in a row 15 times (not including overlapping streaks of 5 or more), and only completed 12 sweeps. Those are hard numbers to back up that sweeping a team in a 3 game series has different statistical value than a random 3 game sampling

Remember, you are chasing so you better hit a very high percentage of your chases. You are probably going to chase with high odds as well, so you better not lose even one chase. It will really put a damper on your bankroll.

I count the D-backs losing 3 in a row 11 times.

SToth22 · 05-01-14, 08:13 PM

You're right in 2013 the diamond backs lost 3 in a row 11 times, yet only got swept in a series 4 times. That proves my point that a sweep is definitely different than losing any 3 games in a row doesn't it? The chase i'm running is based on the fact that it is very difficult to sweep a team at home. Even more difficult to sweep a good team in their own park. Why on earth would any intelligent person ever put money on the Diamondbacks this season????? Time will tell if my theory works or not. Like i said in my first post I'm not doing this for a living. I'm doing it for recreation, hopefully I make some money along the way.

keel44 · 05-01-14, 10:27 PM

1.5 units to win 1
3.75 to win 2.5 profit 1
9.375 to win 6.25 profit 1
14.625 units needed to profit 1 unit assuming all games are -150

Good teams at home versus bad teams will be -150 or more. If you were to win 15 chases in a row, then lose one, you will only have a miniscule profit. I am sure you already know this, but I believe you need some additional angle to make sure you win almost every chase.

SToth22 · 05-02-14, 07:32 AM

Sitting at +3.37 Units right now YTD

5/2 - 5/4

The only matchup that I'm really confident about is Yankees over TB. I'm also going to chase the Cardinals over the Cubs in the series at Wrigley. The cubs are so bad right now I just can't see them sweeping the cardinals even if the series is in chicago

whtsox13 · 05-02-14, 08:46 AM

May fade/chase Cubs through June 1. 19 road games, tough opponents, one scheduled day off.

SToth22 · 05-04-14, 10:38 PM

Wow what a night! The Cards had me scared, and I think it is official that I am going to strictly stick to my system and only play home teams from now on! I also had a change to my betting strategy to try and maximize my pofits. My wife (masters degree in mathematics) and I sat down and looked at some statistical numbers. In short instead of running a straight chase through a sweep I am going to increase the possible profit by one unit tier. When chasing anyway adding enough to pick up an extra unit winds up being a minor percentage of the bet. Betting for the previous 3 days was as follows...

TB @ NYY

Game 1: Lost, -.8 units
Game 2: Won, Recovered Loss and +2 units

STL @ CHC

Game 1: Lost, -1.9 Units
Game 2: Lost, -7.4 Units
Game 3: Won, Recovered Loss and +3 units

YTD: +8.37 Units

I'll put out my chases for 5/5-5/8 tomorrow after i get a chance to check out the updated power rankings

dollarperhead · 05-05-14, 07:52 AM

Wel-come to join this forum hope you enjoy stay here....

rkelly110 · 05-05-14, 10:11 AM

Hi Steve. We had a capper named Vegasgold do the same as you a few years back with great success. Until the bottom
fell out and had quite a few home shut outs and stopped posting.

He didn't start betting until mid May so teams could establish themselves. He would take the home team fav with an
over .500 win rate and a home win rate over .500 and chase them from the 1st game.

I got a free betting system that uses the home team fav., but we have to wait until the 2nd game. The system goes like this:

Look for a home fav getting beat by 2 or more runs. If the same team is the home fav again the next day, begin your chase. It goes by the same premise of home teams not getting shut out, but you won't have near the amount of investment as chasing from game one. I'm using this with good success.

GL

5918mike · 05-05-14, 10:22 AM

I saw 2 road sweeps this weekend, Giants and Tigers. Hopefully you stayed away from both of those.

SToth22 · 05-05-14, 10:42 AM

Absolutely stayed away from them. I feel lucky to get out of the Cardinals Series. That will be the last time I put money on an away team using my system.

whtsox13 · 05-05-14, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by SToth22

I looked at the lower half of the league and win% last year vs. who they swept. Virtually all of the teams in the lower half that wound up sweeping a team while on the road swept other losing teams. The one exception was the Angels who managed to sweep 6 teams while on the road last year. Now that it's may I think i'm going to start using a combination of RPI and ESPN weekly power ranking to try and pick the most lopsided matchups.

Are you using the 'overall' power ranking? Noticed that if you consider 'home' and 'away' rankings some matchups become more lopsided, some less. Just a thought.

SToth22 · 05-05-14, 12:58 PM

I use a combination of power rankings from different sites. Now for the next group of chases...

5/5- 5/8

HOU @ DET
ARI @ MIL
STL @ ATL (I know the baves are cold, but the Cardinals offense isn't much better and I just can't see the braves dropping 9 straight)
SEA @ OAK

Here we go!

Jimmy the Creep · 05-05-14, 01:38 PM

I couldn't see the Braves getting beat 6 straight. -7 units for me. I had some clams on the Cards last night and was happy to do it. Although it was a nail bitter at the end. And that's why your not supposed to watch the games.