New guy getting started

[Chaomino]

Are u still picking the Yanks series ?

[SToth22]

I haven't decided yet. I'm going to wait until tomorrow. Right now I'm leaning on not picking it. I don't like playing into a double header.

[SToth22]

I'm going to pass on the Yankees pirates series. A Sunday double header scares me. No telling what those lineups will look like

[Chaomino]

What you guys got for today? I like the LAA and the KC series but lines are extremely low...

[5918mike]

Top 4 teams on the road making it tough again. Looking at the series starting today or Tuesday I like 2 of them for sure, Cards vs. D-Backs and Angels vs Astros. The other 2 I'll have to dig a little deeper into is Marlins / Phillies and Nationals / Reds.

3 for 3 last weekend with SF, Col, and NY.

[RollinDo]

All over Cards series vs D'backs.
Three starters for StL have yet to lose at home this year.
Hope price isn't too steep (-200 or better)

[SToth22]

Should have stuck with my guns and played the Yankees but I always feel like it's better safe than sorry. If you did stick with them congrats on the extra Unit. I went 2-0 this weekend to bring my season total to +20.37 Units


Series 5/19-5/22

HOU @ LAA (Pretty much an automatic pick anytime the Astros are on the road)
PHL @ MIA
ARI @ STL
CIN @ WSH

DET @ CLE & NYY @ CHC would also be two good series to chase if your willing to get out of the system and play a few road teams. I'm personally not doing it but I think it would be a safe play

Good luck All

[feedmecappers]

Any love for LAD against the Mets for that series? Coming off some embarrassing defeats against the Dbacks

Beckett vs. Montero (1 start so far, Beckett historically quite good against NYM)
Ryu vs. deGrom (1 start so far)
Greinke vs. Niese (possible hedge situation)

Cheers

[whtsox13]

Playing the Det road series, also looking at Oak on the road starting Tuesday. LAA probably safe, but they buried alot of chasers last season 5/31-6/3 by getting swept at home in a 4-game series by Houston.

[fitguy67]

I am not sure how you are with record keeping, but was wondering if you could keep a record posted and upcoming plays you are on. A B C D format. Just to see how these teams are doing on the series you pick. Thanks for posting the upcoming series though. I will probably be on those as well. Please post when NYY is official. And thanks for doing all the hard work and research.

system: 0-0; Profit: 0.00u
Records:
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0

Upcoming plays
PIT @ nyy
Mia @ sf
Sd @ col

I am not sure what your current profit or record is in the thread. I would not mind helping keep track, but would need you update it first.

ST, this is quickly evolving into a a first-rate thread indeed...and as a "rookie thread" it could be an all-time great...especially if we make it through the entire season, especially with a reasonable profit to show for it.

Seems your knowledge of the underlying numbers...AND the game of baseball may help out your "spidey sense" enough to keep the number of losing series even more microscopic than that required to break even. I'm betting on it.

I'm an econ prof, and am always looking out for "costless improvements" to things. In that category, i'd suggest you take JM up on his offer to help with the record-keeping chores. He is as sharp and clear as they come with this sort of thing as I've ever seen...and having someone handle the units-accounting and keeping it clear exactly what stage of a chase each new version of "today's" plays are in, and fielding lots of the super-newb questions for you would be a big costless improvement...

it would free you up to do that most fundamentally important of tasks...looking ahead with an eye toward torpedo-/iceberg-laden series it'd be best to avoid.

Pop over to on3's very well-run mechanical chase system to see just how helpful he is over there...you'd be foolish to not take him up on his offer to help with the record-keeping here, giving you more time to THINK...because this chase is NOT mechanical...it depends on the lifeforce you have free to think about upcoming series, and any reduction in the day-to-day thread-management chores would help with that.

[Chaomino]

What a night! 4 underdogs won their games. Today a lot of GamesB and Games A.

BOL

[SToth22]

It's bound to happen. However it would be nice to win every game 1!. Let's hope the Angels and Nats get after it tonight so we don't get pushed to game 3, they make me nervous. As far as record keeping goes, anybody is more than welcome to contribute to the thread. I keep my own records locally on my computer and they only take me about 5 minutes a day to update. Feel free to help out.

[RollinDo]

I don't get why you'd get pushed to Game 3 if either of those teams loses tonight. Wouldn't they lose the series?
Anyone have series price on Cards or Marlins?
Funny that those 2 series were the ones I was going to play before I read this thread.
I would guess Cards will be around -230.

[SToth22]

Rollin, the system isn't set up to bet on them winning the series. The system is designed around them not being swept. And where do you get Moneylines for the whole series, I haven't found them anywhere.

[RollinDo]

Rollin, the system isn't set up to bet on them winning the series. The system is designed around them not being swept. And where do you get Moneylines for the whole series, I haven't found them anywhere.

5Dimes and Sportsbook has this.
I locked in Cards series (-245)
Bit of a gamble. I will also take D'backs +1.5 tonight with Arroyo. Tonight is their best chance to hang with Cards.

[RollinDo]

So what happens if Cards lose tonight. Do you chase them tomorrow night? And then the next if they lose 2nd game?

[SToth22]

Correct

[5918mike]

It gets dicey going into a 3rd game when the lines get down into -150 to -175 so I've considered betting those at the run line of -1 for the opener and if I lose it's less to chase and a 1 run win pushes that series.

[J.M. Disciple]

This system is a cappers home game chase system. You are not betting for a team to win 2 out of 3, you are betting for home team to win 1 out of 3 games. Whenever a team wins the chase is over. You are betting to win 1 unit during the chase. If you lose 1.5u on game 1 you would bet to win 2.5u on bet 2, and to show a profit of 1u on game 3 if you lost both game 1 and game 2.

I would only use -1RL on A games and play ML on B and C to assure loss recovery. I do not know the odds, but if I had to guess you would be missing out on about 30% of A game wins whenever the team wins by 1 run. Similar to on3's system I would only take -1 or -1.5 if the team is -190 or above. Anything below that I would just play ML.

Stoth you should really look at how on3 runs his Labby lines and consider implementing it into your system since they are so similar. Also you might pick up a few good pointers such as the o/u being 9 or higher the home team is more likely to win 1 game in the series. This has been back tested over 10 years.

Could you update me with a list of all 20+ series played to get the 20.37u profit? I will see if I can go through and get a record going for the thread. I will be using covers closing lines to determine amount won/lost. I think a lot of your series will overlap with on3's system but you throw in a few more because you dont have a filter for your A games.

Thanks for the help and running the thread. Just hope you can maintain it throughout the season.

Good Luck
Austin

[SToth22]

Rollin I would love to backtest some stuff against previous series lines at 5 dimes. You don't have any of the old lines for series by any chance do you.

[J.M. Disciple]

Rollin I would love to backtest some stuff against previous series lines at 5 dimes. You don't have any of the old lines for series by any chance do you.

What do you mean old lines? Can't you just look at covers and teams?

[SToth22]

So PISSED!!!! Got tied up at work and didn't get my play in for the STL game!!!!! Kinda hoping they lose so i can jump on them tomorrow!

[ItsMeMrMattE]

So PISSED!!!! Got tied up at work and didn't get my play in for the STL game!!!!! Kinda hoping they lose so i can jump on them tomorrow!

dont say that im on the RL.

[keel44]

I say take your profit now and abandon the Miami series.

[RollinDo]

I say take your profit now and abandon the Miami series.

Why? I really like Fish tomorrow.

[RollinDo]

Rollin I would love to backtest some stuff against previous series lines at 5 dimes. You don't have any of the old lines for series by any chance do you.

I just started betting series last weekend with Cards. Lay ed the juice with them in this series too (-245).
I am going to test the Braves, Cards, Tigers, Rockies for home series, and Oakland and Giants in some instances on the road.
I don't have previous odds for series. Sorry man.

[SToth22]

Thanks again for your insight Keel....

[Dougie_Fre$h]

Tiger RL and Rockies RL is a sweet little parlay 2morrow.

[SToth22]

Tiger RL and Rockies RL is a sweet little parlay 2morrow.

What on earth does that have to do with the system or anything that is going on in this thread????

[RollinDo]

So are you guys on the system putting down 2.5 units on Marlins tonight?
I'm just going with 1.5 since I didn't play them yesterday.

[Chaomino]

I forgot to bet on the Marlins yesterday so today im putting to win just +1u.

Glad the Halos and the Nats won yesterday.

[5918mike]

3 more unit wins yesterday. Marlins game 2 today to cover game 1 loss, yessir!

[Chaomino]

Cashing with the Marlins series!

Today starts the SEA/HOU series that i like a lot

[5918mike]

I say take your profit now and abandon the Miami series.

+1 unit with Miami's big win yesterday, looking ahead to the weekend up 4 units.

[SToth22]

System came through again this week YTD +23.37 Units

This weekends plays feature a few 4 game series, which statistically are even more difficult to sweep. I'm chasing.

TEX @ DET
HOU @ SEA
CLE @ BAL
MIN @ SF