Pendulum Cycle Theory: MLB chase experiment

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  • arpeggiomeister
    SBR MVP
    • 05-23-08
    • 1015

    #246
    Went into the break with losses across the board. We are on the
    second tier of the underdog and over under chases. The
    semi-arbitrage game that was rained out left me very bitter. I
    reloaded the $254 that I lost on BAL bringing my account back to $500
    and change. I am playing very dangerously. I am hanging it all on
    the line hoping that I can hit 5 in a row.






    The main focus has been on the semi-arbitrage lately because of
    the amazing streaks it has had but the primary strategies being
    tested are the over/under and underdog chase. The over/under holds
    truest to my theory as an over under bet is an arbitrary number
    completely concocted from public opinion. It has no bearing on the
    outcome of the game. The teams are playing to win, they do not care
    by how much. The underdog chase ties in with the theory but the
    results are based on wins and losses. It is conceivable that an
    underdog can lose 15 game in a row straight up and thus is not as
    purely based on public opinion. The main goal is to hit 40% ROI
    based on a $3,000 bank roll using a grand martingale with $10 units.
    It would take 100 bets to achieve this. The underdog chase will be
    the first to cross that line. Today's bet is the 84th. I
    have 16 left to hit my target. Of course if bet 100 does not cover I
    must chase until I either cover or bust. The over/under chase is on
    its 76th bet today. Judging by the results to date both
    of these chases should reach the 40% ROI target I set.





    My success or failure in this experiment hinges on the underdog
    and over/under chases. The semi-arbitrage is a fun distraction but
    whenever I have come across something that is hitting huge returns it
    ends up burning me. The primary goal was to create a system that can
    produce 100% ROI a year consistently. If the two aforementioned
    chases hit their targets then I believe I have found that, as my NFL
    and NBA systems are consistent at 20% and 22% respectively. If you
    compound from one season to the next that comes out to 100% ROI.
    100% a year is enough to make you very rich in the long run. Chase
    systems are very high risk but are tailor made for the bubble
    phenomenon I see occurring in the odds and point spreads.





    Today's Plays:





    Underdog Chase

    ARI
    -130

    $37.82




    O/U Chase

    ATL
    U/7 -105

    $33.60




    Semi-Arbitrage

    COL
    +135

    $258.00
    PIT
    -1.5 +150

    $242.52
    ($105.78)

    Comment
    • BarstoolProphet
      SBR MVP
      • 06-05-14
      • 1151

      #247
      Instead of starting a new thread. I hope you do not mind me posting my little system chase here. It is quite simple. 2 game chase and losses spread out over the next 6 games(chases). It is a combination of many things. The money management, I owe to Keel. Goal is to hit 12 units by Aug 15th with a max bankroll of 60 units. This would give you a 20% ROI. Not bad for only 4 weeks. I have back tested for 4.5 years , with the lowest winning season of 15% ROI, the best season was 89% ROI with an Avg. of about 50%.

      I developed this to make it manageable for most bettors. I would like to share this, as I would like to work with you on NFL. I also have a really good half time NBA system. But I want to adopt your thinking and try and get a return on investment of 100% of the course of the NFL, NBA, MLB seasons.

      Here we go:

      PIT Pirates $155 to win $100

      DET Tigers $155 to win $100

      ATL Braves $155 to win $100

      OAK A's $155 to win $100


      I hope you do not mind. If so I will create another thread.
      Comment
      • arpeggiomeister
        SBR MVP
        • 05-23-08
        • 1015

        #248
        Semi-Arbitrage and underdog cover.






        We have a new underdog on the list. The Rangers are on the bottom
        now. I can not use them today because the money line is -160 in
        their favor. That is too expensive for an underdog. I went up to
        the next one on the list which is the Astros.





        We are on tier 3 with the over/under. I took CLE but I am
        searching for a team to score over 10. If they fail to cover the
        under today I will wait until a team scores over 10 and finish the
        chase with that team.





        Underdog Chase

        HOU
        -102

        $10.20




        O/U Chase

        CLE
        U/8.5 -110 gm 1

        $83.16




        Semi-Arbitrage

        COL
        +145

        $299.95
        PIT
        -1.5 +140

        $306.20
        ($128.73)

        Comment
        • arpeggiomeister
          SBR MVP
          • 05-23-08
          • 1015

          #249
          Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
          Instead of starting a new thread. I hope you do not mind me posting my little system chase here. It is quite simple. 2 game chase and losses spread out over the next 6 games(chases). It is a combination of many things. The money management, I owe to Keel. Goal is to hit 12 units by Aug 15th with a max bankroll of 60 units. This would give you a 20% ROI. Not bad for only 4 weeks. I have back tested for 4.5 years , with the lowest winning season of 15% ROI, the best season was 89% ROI with an Avg. of about 50%.

          I developed this to make it manageable for most bettors. I would like to share this, as I would like to work with you on NFL. I also have a really good half time NBA system. But I want to adopt your thinking and try and get a return on investment of 100% of the course of the NFL, NBA, MLB seasons.

          Here we go:

          PIT Pirates $155 to win $100

          DET Tigers $155 to win $100

          ATL Braves $155 to win $100

          OAK A's $155 to win $100


          I hope you do not mind. If so I will create another thread.
          I do not mind at all. That is what the spirit of my threads are all about, trying new ideas and discussing them with others.
          Comment
          • arpeggiomeister
            SBR MVP
            • 05-23-08
            • 1015

            #250
            What is the criteria for picking your teams for these chases?
            Comment
            • BarstoolProphet
              SBR MVP
              • 06-05-14
              • 1151

              #251
              Not a bad start. 3-1.

              Starting Bankroll: $6000

              Current Bankroll: $6145

              Goal: $7200 20% ROI

              As for the criteria, it is about 12 parameters. Mostly on Pitching match ups and opposing hitters vs. those pitchers. Home/Away records, overall records. Opening line, It will mostly always be favorites that we will chase. Not what I normally like to do. But it was a combination of about 4 systems that I like.

              Rather than "data mine" and create a new parameter on an existing system, in order to turn an L into a W, as so many people like to do and call it their own, I simply combined 4-5 systems that I liked and used only the logical parameters and it seemed to work out so far. It stills needs polishing. Lets hit this goal and then I will refine it a bit more.

              For example, today I had the second game of the DET/CLEV match up as the first game of the day. So it will not be a chase on the first game of today. I really like Kluber for the Tribe. A majority of this system is the money management. Debating on whether to chase the second game of today,(3rd game in series) or simply taking the 1 loss and getting it back on the next 6 chases. Since we did have a profitable day yesterday. But we do need to make that goal of 12 units. So spreading it out over the next 6 , may take an entire week or more. We only have 4 weeks to work with here.

              Conclusion: The second game of that DH of DET/CLEV is -175. Current loss on that chase $155. So it would take $272 to recoup our loss yesterday. This is so easy when back testing. You simply just record the result. Real time and real money makes it ,,,well REAL. I try and tell this to so many people when they come up with these systems , sure it looks great on paper, but when it comes to wagering that "paper" in real time, it now becomes reality. ie, the guy with a 6 game chase. I would bet that 99.9% people following it will never make that 6th bet. But they can air bet it on back testing and say that the record is 6859-0, and call it the greatest thing since sliced bread. In reality they are not betting it.

              So here it is. Going to bet only to recoup my loss. If this were at the beginning of my season I would chase it , knowing I had more time to recoup that loss.

              If DET losses Game 1 today then I will:

              DET Tigers $272 to win $155 Game 2

              If DET wins Game 1 today then no play.
              Comment
              • arpeggiomeister
                SBR MVP
                • 05-23-08
                • 1015

                #252
                Got burned on the semi-arbitrage. This blew up my account. I was hanging it all on the line which is a dangerous thing to do. I was playing around with tiny amounts so I am not overly concerned. There are a couple of things that I wanted to point out. The first deals with the major streaks this experiment went through. The Semi-arbitrage was supposed to be a control experiment to compare to the underdog chase and the over/under which truly fit my theory. The Semi-arbitrage is random so far as I can tell. You typically deal with different teams every day. There is not psychological connection from one game to the next and thus you are completely depending on luck. I just encountered 3 losses in a very short span. This shows the experiment returning to the mean after some large aberrant streaks. I encountered this with my experiments on roulette and blackjack as well.
                Comment
                • arpeggiomeister
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-23-08
                  • 1015

                  #253
                  The second point I wanted to make has to do with gambling addiction, specifically "setting the hook". I do not consider myself an addict. I never risk more then I can afford to lose. That is my golden rule. However, after seeing such a huge streak I decided to play with real money. Not a lot, but real money. I turned $200 into $950 before encountering double losses which set me all the way back to $246. I put in $254 to replace the last loss bringing the account back to $500. I planned on hitting 5 bets in a row which would set me at $1,000. As a result I blew up my account. Even now it is tempting to reload and try again. I have put on the brakes because I have no logical explanation as to why this was working so well other then I hit a major lucky streak. I find the results intriguing but I need to put some thought into what happened and see if I can find a solution. Otherwise I am throwing money at the wall and hoping just like any slot machine player, roulette player, etc. That is not my style. This concludes the semi-arbitrage experiment. As of now both control experiments have failed while the two Pendulum Cycle Theory experiments are still standing.
                  Comment
                  • arpeggiomeister
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-23-08
                    • 1015

                    #254
                    The underdog and semi-arbitrage lose, the under just barely
                    squeaks in. It was 8.5 and the game came out to 8. The
                    semi-arbitrage suffers a critical failure. Early in the experiment I
                    was disturbed by how thin the chase system was so I added a 3rd
                    tier. While the loss would not be total this third loss would
                    cripple the account. What I did with my real account was a total
                    loss as I was being more aggressive then using a grand martingale. I
                    was using an anti-martingale which takes your profits and risks them
                    all until you bust or decide to exit. I just busted. In either
                    case, for this to be a legitimate strategy there must be some
                    determining factor other then luck that makes me believe this is
                    going to win and so far I do not see it so I have drawn this
                    experiment to a close until such time as I can find an edge.





                    Today's plays:





                    Underdog Chase

                    HOU
                    +112

                    $26.96




                    O/U Chase

                    ARI
                    U/7.5

                    $10.50
                    Comment
                    • BarstoolProphet
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-05-14
                      • 1151

                      #255
                      2 Game Chase System

                      Starting Bankroll: $6000


                      Current Bankroll: $5873

                      Goal: $7200 20% ROI

                      Well DET did not come through for me. I had a feeling that I should have been content with a winning day and leave it at that. We will get it done this coming week.

                      Arp, as for the semi-arb. I have studied a way to beat that for many years, still to this day have not found one. I too agree it gets promising on such great streaks it has. But just as those hot streaks come so does those cold ones. I have too officially given up on trying to make that work.

                      What I do sometimes on heavy favorites of -200 or more that I like. I will parlay them with a semi-arb to bring the juice down , rather than play the runline. I think that my odds are better to only win the favorite game and another game (home team does not win by 1 run) than me winning the heavily favorite by 2.

                      See ya guys on Monday.
                      Comment
                      • arpeggiomeister
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-23-08
                        • 1015

                        #256
                        Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
                        2 Game Chase System

                        Starting Bankroll: $6000


                        Current Bankroll: $5873

                        Goal: $7200 20% ROI

                        Well DET did not come through for me. I had a feeling that I should have been content with a winning day and leave it at that. We will get it done this coming week.

                        Arp, as for the semi-arb. I have studied a way to beat that for many years, still to this day have not found one. I too agree it gets promising on such great streaks it has. But just as those hot streaks come so does those cold ones. I have too officially given up on trying to make that work.

                        What I do sometimes on heavy favorites of -200 or more that I like. I will parlay them with a semi-arb to bring the juice down , rather than play the runline. I think that my odds are better to only win the favorite game and another game (home team does not win by 1 run) than me winning the heavily favorite by 2.

                        See ya guys on Monday.
                        It was a fun experiment but everything I do is based on understanding the psychology behind the numbers and then using chase systems for an expected margin of error. The problem with the semi-arb is that I can not find a way to connect the public psychology to the results. This means I am playing a random game and all of the negative EV discussions some into play. With the underdog chase you have teams that the public have written off, but they still win games. The problem with this chase is that even though public perception affects the payout, the underdog still must win to make money. A losing streak of 15 games or so would wipe out any chase system I can devise for it, and there is a very real danger of that happening. I am thinking about testing the top ranked team on the run line bets. Same exact principle but the favorite must win by two runs. I am thinking out loud here, but I think that following the underdog through the first half of the season and then switching to the favorite with the run lines on the second half could be a good play. As the season progresses the underdogs will become less and less likely to win as the top teams start pushing to get in the playoffs. Excuse my lack of MLB knowledge if playoffs is not what they call it. The point is that public perception has written off the underdogs who will win games throughout the season. As the top teams begin on their championship runs the underdogs become less likely to win. This is the time to start playing the favorites on the run line.
                        Comment
                        • arpeggiomeister
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-23-08
                          • 1015

                          #257
                          I have another idea up my sleeve as well. I created something I called the "Super Martingale" for roulette. First I will tell you what it is, and then why I think it just might work in sports using parlays. I since have heard people on here call the Grand Martingale a "Super Martingale" so I should probably rename it. It was designed to go extremely deep. When you bet a single number on roulette the payout is 35:1. I designed this on online roulette wheels with a minimum bet of $1 and max of $100. I would start by placing $1 bets. I would 30 $1 bets say on the number 4. If I lost all 30 I would then raise my bets to $2 for 19 more bets. Since the payout is 35:1 the system is profitable as long as you do not bust. This thing is absolutely enormous. I was able to squeeze 149 tiers out of it. My tests ultimately proved what the experts have said all along, no matter how much you mess with the betting pattern it can not overcome a negative EV. I bought a wheel and tested for 3,800 spins. I tracked each number that came up and tested for bias on the wheel. My wheel was indeed biased but still failed. 4 was a bias number on my wheel and yet I had streaks where it would not come up for over 200 spins... ...more then enough to destroy this monster martingale system. I will post the chase system so you can see it and then discuss an idea that I have for using it to bet on sports.
                          Comment
                          • arpeggiomeister
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-23-08
                            • 1015

                            #258
                            Mike's
                            Monster Martingale






                            Bet
                            Size

                            Number
                            of Plays

                            Individual
                            Bank Roll

                            Total
                            Bank Roll

                            $1.00
                            30
                            $30.00
                            $30.00
                            $2.00
                            19
                            $38.00
                            $68.00
                            $3.00
                            11
                            $33.00
                            $101.00
                            $5.00
                            14
                            $60.00
                            $171.00
                            $10.00
                            17
                            $170.00
                            $341.00
                            $20.00
                            17
                            $340.00
                            $681.00
                            $40.00
                            17
                            $680.00
                            $1,361.00
                            $80.00
                            17
                            $1,360.00
                            $2,721.00
                            $100.00
                            7
                            $700.00
                            $3,421.00








                            149
                            rounds of play. $3,421 Bank Roll.
                            Comment
                            • arpeggiomeister
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-23-08
                              • 1015

                              #259
                              I am thinking about trying an experiment with parlays using this same concept. You could create 30 combinations of a $1 parlay that pays 35:1. This would require several teams. You could then progress through the series as displayed above. You would have to narrow down the field and weed out the most unlikely outcomes. By covering a large number of combinations and having 149 tiers to play with it would be interesting to see if I could make it work. I might need to tweak with it a bit to even out the combinations to something consistent, but the idea is there.
                              Comment
                              • BarstoolProphet
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-05-14
                                • 1151

                                #260
                                Great posts.

                                Now about your logic in baseball, mid to late august is about the time the general public will think the same as you. And those so called favorites will be WAY over valued. A top tiered pitcher against a mediocre team will be like -250 or more, whereas the same match up in June will only have been -175. This is about the time you will see teams be better valued as a dog to play rather than your thought of playing the fav to win by 2. Just food for thought. Hence why you see a lot of ppl including myself shut down their systems at the end of August and not even continue into Sept. Hell I tend to stop playing Mid August. Too many AAA players get called up and have something to prove.

                                Now about your idea of the Super Marty. I like it. You always intrigue me with your way of thinking. It keeps my way of thinking fresh. Thank you.

                                You are absolutely right about the SemiArb. and that it is random. What we are seeking is something similar to a Correlated Parlay. Where if we can find something in the days games that could have an effect on another play.

                                First we will need to find out how many plays are needed to generate your 35 to 1 ratio. Which would be close to either a 5 to 6 team parlay. For example:

                                We would take 3 of the lowest totals on the board for that day and the Home team(or Favorite) and the Under in each match up and chase that until it hits.


                                Today I have:

                                SD Padre -105 Under 6.5 -110
                                NYY -120 Under 7 -110
                                LAD -185 Under 6.5 -110

                                Which yields about 38.8 units.

                                As you can see I took the Home team except for LAD, only because they are heavy favorites. My Thought was take the Road team in our little one day experiment because they are favored so much.
                                Comment
                                • BarstoolProphet
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-05-14
                                  • 1151

                                  #261
                                  More thought. The ROI in this doesnt seem to be favorable. Sure in Roulette, you can get 149 spins in an hour or 2. But in sports, like MLB, 149 plays or days , will be about an entire season. 6 months at 30 days = 180 total. And lets say on our 149th play we hit. yippppeeee

                                  wait, really, a whopping $179 profit. and the season is nearly over. Maybe something we should not spin our wheels on. A little play on words there for ya. lol

                                  But let me think about it some more.
                                  Comment
                                  • keel44
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-01-09
                                    • 3363

                                    #262
                                    Guys, read through my thread from last year. It worked for me. I don't know why I gave it up. I'll need to go back to it. Read through the posts, it is my finest hour.

                                    MLB handicapping, baseball betting, picks, matchups and the latests game results in the MLB forum.
                                    Comment
                                    • BarstoolProphet
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-05-14
                                      • 1151

                                      #263
                                      2 Game Chase System

                                      Starting Bankroll: $6000


                                      Current Bankroll: $5873

                                      Goal: $7200 20% ROI


                                      ATL Braves -175 $301 to win $172

                                      Keel, I have adopted your money management idea and have applied it in this experiment. I took all the losses that I had on DET Tigers $155 Game 1 and $272 Game 2 ($427) and divided it up across my next 6 plays. So now instead of my base amount to win $100 it is now to win $172.

                                      As for the parlay thread you had, this is where I got the idea. However , I did see your winning percentage on the games straight up. And yes, it was a very cold streak. If you cant not do well enough to "get close" to break even then parlays really are not the solution.

                                      Remember we are here to help one another. So the next time someone asks you " Do you have a gambling problem?"

                                      You can whole heartly reply," NO, But I have a gambling solution!"

                                      GO Braves. GL GUYS.

                                      Comment
                                      • arpeggiomeister
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-23-08
                                        • 1015

                                        #264
                                        Both plays cover. HOU scores 11 but is not playing today. OAK
                                        scores 10 but is not playing today. TOR scores 9 and is playing
                                        today so I will take them for the under.





                                        Today's plays:





                                        Underdog Chase

                                        TEX
                                        +155

                                        $6.45




                                        O/U

                                        TOR
                                        U/8.5 -110

                                        $11.00
                                        Comment
                                        • arpeggiomeister
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-23-08
                                          • 1015

                                          #265
                                          Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
                                          More thought. The ROI in this doesnt seem to be favorable. Sure in Roulette, you can get 149 spins in an hour or 2. But in sports, like MLB, 149 plays or days , will be about an entire season. 6 months at 30 days = 180 total. And lets say on our 149th play we hit. yippppeeee

                                          wait, really, a whopping $179 profit. and the season is nearly over. Maybe something we should not spin our wheels on. A little play on words there for ya. lol

                                          But let me think about it some more.
                                          The difference here is that you can matrix many different combinations together. Baseball is not the best example because of the varying odds. I was thinking football. If you parlay 6 teams together you can create many combinations. If you choose one team that you think is definitely going to cover and then run different combinations of the rest the odds increase that you are going to cover. We can't hit every possible combination or it will not be profitable but you can hit say 20 combinations. A 6 team parlay at 11:10 odds win will pay out over 40:1.
                                          Comment
                                          • arpeggiomeister
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-23-08
                                            • 1015

                                            #266
                                            Here is a chart of multiple combinations. F stands for favorite, U stands for underdog.
                                            1
                                            2
                                            3
                                            4
                                            5
                                            6
                                            7
                                            8
                                            9
                                            10
                                            11
                                            12
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            F
                                            U
                                            F
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U




































                                            13
                                            14
                                            15
                                            16
                                            17
                                            18
                                            19
                                            20












                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F
                                            F












                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U
                                            U
                                            F
                                            U












                                            U
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U
                                            U
                                            F












                                            U
                                            U
                                            U
                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U
                                            U












                                            F
                                            U
                                            U
                                            U
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U
                                            U












                                            F
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U
                                            U
                                            F
                                            U
                                            U












                                            Comment
                                            • arpeggiomeister
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-23-08
                                              • 1015

                                              #267
                                              I started going through 2013 and making mock plays. One thing that is really striking is that this is a major pain in the ass. The back test can not be considered legit because I already know the results of the games but so far this is what I got.
                                              1. W – 2 DEN w, SEA l, ATL l, NE l, HOU l, CIN l
                                              2. L DEN w, ATL w, NE l, HOU l, GB w, NO l
                                              3. L ATL vs MIA
                                              4. L NO w, CHI l, NE w, CIN l , KC w, IND w

                                                I win the first week and lose the next 3. Now if I was to place $1 bets on the first week, $2 the next week, $4 on the third, etc. I think this would work. Not sure what the ROI would look like but I think I have methods that are way easier then this that will produce the same results without the extra effort. Still, it was a cool idea.
                                              Comment
                                              • arpeggiomeister
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-23-08
                                                • 1015

                                                #268
                                                Originally posted by keel44
                                                Guys, read through my thread from last year. It worked for me. I don't know why I gave it up. I'll need to go back to it. Read through the posts, it is my finest hour.

                                                http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-baseball.html
                                                What you are calling "pressing" is what I call the "anti-martingale". If you can get them to hit they multiply fast. I do something similar when playing blackjack. I call it a "hybrid martingale" because I will chase when I lose and press when I win. I'll bet $10 to start. If I win I bet $20. If I win again I bet $40. If I win this time I bet $20 to try and cap off $100. If I lose that $20 I will bet $40. If I lose again I will bet $20. If that loses I start over again. If I start with a loss I will chase the $10 with a $20 bet the way you normally would chase a martingale. Sometimes I will only raise the bet by $10 each time instead of doubling. Any chase system fails against random games but if you add card counting into the picture the success rate changes dramatically. I have never done this in a casino because I can't count well enough yet to look like I am playing normally but I have done hundreds of trials at home, perhaps even thousands, and it works. I prefer sports betting because you can make your decisions at your own pace without the pressure of a pit boss breathing down your neck. The advantage of card counting though is that you can have hundreds of trials in the span of 3 hours where as you only have one baseball game in that time. You can bet multiple games but there is still no comparison to how many bets you can place playing blackjack
                                                Comment
                                                • arpeggiomeister
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-23-08
                                                  • 1015

                                                  #269
                                                  I am actually considering doing something similar with 15 point teasers in the NFL.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • arpeggiomeister
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-23-08
                                                    • 1015

                                                    #270
                                                    Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
                                                    Great posts.

                                                    Now about your logic in baseball, mid to late august is about the time the general public will think the same as you. And those so called favorites will be WAY over valued. A top tiered pitcher against a mediocre team will be like -250 or more, whereas the same match up in June will only have been -175. This is about the time you will see teams be better valued as a dog to play rather than your thought of playing the fav to win by 2. Just food for thought. Hence why you see a lot of ppl including myself shut down their systems at the end of August and not even continue into Sept. Hell I tend to stop playing Mid August. Too many AAA players get called up and have something to prove.

                                                    Now about your idea of the Super Marty. I like it. You always intrigue me with your way of thinking. It keeps my way of thinking fresh. Thank you.

                                                    You are absolutely right about the SemiArb. and that it is random. What we are seeking is something similar to a Correlated Parlay. Where if we can find something in the days games that could have an effect on another play.

                                                    First we will need to find out how many plays are needed to generate your 35 to 1 ratio. Which would be close to either a 5 to 6 team parlay. For example:

                                                    We would take 3 of the lowest totals on the board for that day and the Home team(or Favorite) and the Under in each match up and chase that until it hits.


                                                    Today I have:

                                                    SD Padre -105 Under 6.5 -110
                                                    NYY -120 Under 7 -110
                                                    LAD -185 Under 6.5 -110

                                                    Which yields about 38.8 units.

                                                    As you can see I took the Home team except for LAD, only because they are heavy favorites. My Thought was take the Road team in our little one day experiment because they are favored so much.
                                                    I am actually looking to get out in August. I am closing in on my goal of 40%. Today's bet on the underdog chase is bet #87. I need to hit 100 to get 40%. If bet 100 does not cover then I must chase until it does. I should hit bet 100 some time in the first week of August. I should be out by the second week in August. The over/under is lagging behind. I am on bet 79 today so I have 21 bets left to hit 100. Should still be out before September on that one.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BarstoolProphet
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-05-14
                                                      • 1151

                                                      #271
                                                      First I would like to get something more refined for this upcoming NFL season. I have already decided to shut down MLB by Aug 15th.

                                                      I like the idea of doing 20 combinations of the 64 possible outcomes. However, one must understand that with parlays there is a considerable amount of value lost. I would like you to refine and reduce the amount of plays in your Roulette System to accommodate only for a 3 team parlay. Reasoning is parlays are bad any way you look at them. They do not return true odds. A 3 team parlay is the ONLY one to do so.

                                                      I have said this many times over as well. The only time to do a parlay is if the events overlap on the time scale. For example if we were to bet only 3 NFL morning games. But If we were to bet a morning game then and afternoon game then the Sunday night game. It is wise to straight bet them and press the amount into the next event or game.

                                                      Not to insult anyone's intelligence here , but I am sure with the level of math skills in this thread , everyone already knows the possible outcomes and their respective payouts. But it bears repeating.

                                                      2 Teams = 4 Possible Outcomes = 2.6 to 1 payout True Payout = 2.64 to 1

                                                      3 Teams = 8 Possible Outcomes = 6 to 1 payout True Payout = 5.95 to 1

                                                      4 Teams = 16 Possible Outcomes = 10 to 1 payout True Payout = 12.28 to 1

                                                      5 Teams = 32 Possible Outcomes = 20 to 1 payout True Payout = 24.35 to 1

                                                      6 Teams = 64 Possible Outcomes = 40 to 1 payout True Payout = 47.40 to 1


                                                      Based on the above information, one can conclude the ONLY advantageous parlay is the 3 teamer. Because it is the ONLY one that pays out more than the TRUE outcome.

                                                      True outcome is based on the idea of "pressing" the bet and its winnings forward into the next event.

                                                      So if we are going to do parlays and not as Keel suggested in the MLB thread and press bets forward. Then we will only need to work with the 3 teamer, otherwise we are killing ourselves.

                                                      So We develop a "full proof" Super Marty system tailored to only the 3 team and 6 to 1 payout. Or we can take it up to Mike's Roulette Super Marty , but will need to do a combination of two 3 teamers. So lets say we Take 3 NFL morning games and parlay them together and then press that into another 3 team parlay in the afternoon. For a total of 6 teams.

                                                      In conclusion: We work with 3 team parlays or simply straight bet and press forward. The math speaks for itself.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BarstoolProphet
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-05-14
                                                        • 1151

                                                        #272
                                                        2 Game Chase System

                                                        Overall Record: 3-3

                                                        Starting Bankroll: $6000


                                                        Current Bankroll: $5572

                                                        Goal: $7200 20% ROI


                                                        ATL Braves -175 $828 to win $473
                                                        Comment
                                                        • keel44
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-01-09
                                                          • 3363

                                                          #273
                                                          I really like the idea of pressing a high +odds situation with a chase. A normal handicapper should be able to get hot enough to satisfy whatever is needed to win. I say just use your own picks with a version of money management.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • arpeggiomeister
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-23-08
                                                            • 1015

                                                            #274
                                                            Pressed for time. Underdog wins, under bet loses.





                                                            Today's plays





                                                            Underdog Chase

                                                            TEX
                                                            +160

                                                            $6.25




                                                            O/U chase

                                                            BOS
                                                            U/9 -115

                                                            $35.65
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BarstoolProphet
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-05-14
                                                              • 1151

                                                              #275
                                                              2 Game Chase System

                                                              Overall Record: 3-3

                                                              Starting Bankroll: $6000


                                                              Current Bankroll: $5572

                                                              Goal: $7200 20% ROI


                                                              ATL Braves -175 $828 to win $473

                                                              Adding:

                                                              OAk A's -260 $447 to win $172
                                                              Comment
                                                              • arpeggiomeister
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-23-08
                                                                • 1015

                                                                #276
                                                                Both bets lose. That brings us to tier 2 on the underdog and tier
                                                                3 on the under bet,





                                                                Today's Plays:





                                                                Underdog Chase

                                                                TEX
                                                                -110

                                                                28.88




                                                                O/U Chase

                                                                BOS
                                                                U/8.5 -110

                                                                85.42
                                                                Comment
                                                                • arpeggiomeister
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 05-23-08
                                                                  • 1015

                                                                  #277
                                                                  Originally posted by BarstoolProphet
                                                                  First I would like to get something more refined for this upcoming NFL season. I have already decided to shut down MLB by Aug 15th.

                                                                  I like the idea of doing 20 combinations of the 64 possible outcomes. However, one must understand that with parlays there is a considerable amount of value lost. I would like you to refine and reduce the amount of plays in your Roulette System to accommodate only for a 3 team parlay. Reasoning is parlays are bad any way you look at them. They do not return true odds. A 3 team parlay is the ONLY one to do so.

                                                                  I have said this many times over as well. The only time to do a parlay is if the events overlap on the time scale. For example if we were to bet only 3 NFL morning games. But If we were to bet a morning game then and afternoon game then the Sunday night game. It is wise to straight bet them and press the amount into the next event or game.

                                                                  Not to insult anyone's intelligence here , but I am sure with the level of math skills in this thread , everyone already knows the possible outcomes and their respective payouts. But it bears repeating.

                                                                  2 Teams = 4 Possible Outcomes = 2.6 to 1 payout True Payout = 2.64 to 1

                                                                  3 Teams = 8 Possible Outcomes = 6 to 1 payout True Payout = 5.95 to 1

                                                                  4 Teams = 16 Possible Outcomes = 10 to 1 payout True Payout = 12.28 to 1

                                                                  5 Teams = 32 Possible Outcomes = 20 to 1 payout True Payout = 24.35 to 1

                                                                  6 Teams = 64 Possible Outcomes = 40 to 1 payout True Payout = 47.40 to 1


                                                                  Based on the above information, one can conclude the ONLY advantageous parlay is the 3 teamer. Because it is the ONLY one that pays out more than the TRUE outcome.

                                                                  True outcome is based on the idea of "pressing" the bet and its winnings forward into the next event.

                                                                  So if we are going to do parlays and not as Keel suggested in the MLB thread and press bets forward. Then we will only need to work with the 3 teamer, otherwise we are killing ourselves.

                                                                  So We develop a "full proof" Super Marty system tailored to only the 3 team and 6 to 1 payout. Or we can take it up to Mike's Roulette Super Marty , but will need to do a combination of two 3 teamers. So lets say we Take 3 NFL morning games and parlay them together and then press that into another 3 team parlay in the afternoon. For a total of 6 teams.

                                                                  In conclusion: We work with 3 team parlays or simply straight bet and press forward. The math speaks for itself.
                                                                  Here is my first crack at it. (and actually my math skills are
                                                                  pretty basic. I haven't done anything more advanced then simple
                                                                  ratios and basic algebra since high school)





                                                                  I have a 9 level system. This one is pretty aggressive, offering
                                                                  a large return if you go the distance. If we wanted to hold the
                                                                  profit at $120 and accept a smaller return I think we could make this
                                                                  stretch through the entire NFL regular season.












                                                                  Risk Amount
                                                                  Total Risk
                                                                  Amount won
                                                                  1
                                                                  $20.00
                                                                  $20.00
                                                                  $120.00
                                                                  2
                                                                  $30.00
                                                                  $50.00
                                                                  $130.00
                                                                  3
                                                                  $40.00
                                                                  $90.00
                                                                  $150.00
                                                                  4
                                                                  $50.00
                                                                  $140.00
                                                                  $160.00
                                                                  5
                                                                  $70.00
                                                                  $210.00
                                                                  $210.00
                                                                  6
                                                                  $110.00
                                                                  $320.00
                                                                  $340.00
                                                                  7
                                                                  $160.00
                                                                  $480.00
                                                                  $480.00
                                                                  8
                                                                  $250.00
                                                                  $730.00
                                                                  $770.00
                                                                  9
                                                                  $400.00
                                                                  $1,130.00
                                                                  $1,270.00
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BarstoolProphet
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-05-14
                                                                    • 1151

                                                                    #278
                                                                    2 Game Chase System

                                                                    Overall Record: 3-5

                                                                    Starting Bankroll: $6000


                                                                    Current Bankroll: $4297

                                                                    Goal: $7200 20% ROI

                                                                    Well this is not going well at all. In the years of the back testing , it never had back to back losses, chase losses. But just goes to show that it is always possible. Meeting the goal by that deadline seems a near impossibility. However, I did account for at least one big loss in these time frame, but not two.

                                                                    I do have a contingency, that is not to chase into the second game, and only play the first game and spread losses over the next 3 bets. So this will be the plan going forward. This may bring me back to even and I might need to go into the end of Aug. if I am to meet that goal.

                                                                    So units will be increased to $300 in order to meet this goal. It is virtually the same unit layout because there will be no chase into the 2nd game where the bet size gets to be too large. This is an average of the total unit outlay , so $300 isnt really an increase as it is more of an redistribution of resources. lol.

                                                                    good luck guys.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • arpeggiomeister
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-23-08
                                                                      • 1015

                                                                      #279
                                                                      I am more intrigued by teasers then parlays. When you hit a parlay it is like a lightning strike but teasers are predictable. The main basis of "The Pendulum Cycle Theory" is that extreme results make the public act in predictable patterns. If a team wins against the spread by 20 or more points the public will jump all over that team in the next game which drives the spread even higher. If a dog loses by 20 or more points then the spread will decrease as more people shy away from that team. If you take the opposite side and put it into teasers it should produce positive results. I have absolutely crushed it in the past with this. I didn't do so hot last year, but I think that is because I was trying too many different ideas instead of choosing one strategy and sticking with it. I have several filters I use but here is a basic one. If they win by 20+ ATS fade them, if they lose by 20+ bet them. Here are the results from last year. Mix and match the teams from week to week and I think you will start to see what I have been saying all along, there is absolutely nothing random about this whatsoever.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • arpeggiomeister
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-23-08
                                                                        • 1015

                                                                        #280
                                                                        Chase Tracker 2013 AFC








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                                                                        15
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                                                                        17
                                                                        NE
                                                                        L8
                                                                        L9
                                                                        W13
                                                                        W9.5
                                                                        L7
                                                                        W1.5
                                                                        L6.5
                                                                        W3
                                                                        W17
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L1
                                                                        W4
                                                                        L4.5
                                                                        L10
                                                                        L1.5
                                                                        W32
                                                                        W6.5
                                                                        NYJ
                                                                        W4
                                                                        W9
                                                                        W6
                                                                        L21.5
                                                                        W12.5
                                                                        L13
                                                                        W6.5
                                                                        L34.5
                                                                        W11.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L24
                                                                        L11.5
                                                                        L20
                                                                        W7
                                                                        W1
                                                                        W10
                                                                        W21.5
                                                                        BUF
                                                                        W8
                                                                        W4.5
                                                                        L6
                                                                        W6
                                                                        L9.5
                                                                        W4
                                                                        W9
                                                                        L6.5
                                                                        L5.5
                                                                        L10.5
                                                                        W24
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L8
                                                                        L18.5
                                                                        W2.5
                                                                        W18
                                                                        L6.5
                                                                        MIA
                                                                        W14.5
                                                                        W5
                                                                        W2
                                                                        L13.5
                                                                        L5.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L9
                                                                        L3
                                                                        W5
                                                                        L2
                                                                        W6.5
                                                                        W0.5
                                                                        W20
                                                                        W9
                                                                        W1.5
                                                                        L18
                                                                        L21.5
                                                                        PIT
                                                                        L14
                                                                        L3.5
                                                                        L16
                                                                        L9.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W13
                                                                        W2
                                                                        L5.5
                                                                        L17
                                                                        W10.5
                                                                        W13
                                                                        W16
                                                                        W0.5
                                                                        L9
                                                                        W12
                                                                        W6
                                                                        W2.5
                                                                        BAL
                                                                        L13
                                                                        W1
                                                                        W21
                                                                        L6
                                                                        W5.5
                                                                        L2
                                                                        L2
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L6
                                                                        W3
                                                                        P
                                                                        W11.5
                                                                        L0.5
                                                                        L4
                                                                        W6.5
                                                                        W32
                                                                        L9.5
                                                                        CIN
                                                                        P
                                                                        W3.5
                                                                        W7
                                                                        L14.5
                                                                        W7
                                                                        L4
                                                                        W5.5
                                                                        W34.5
                                                                        L5
                                                                        L3
                                                                        W16.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W7
                                                                        W6.5
                                                                        L12
                                                                        W19
                                                                        W9.5
                                                                        CLE
                                                                        L14.5
                                                                        L1
                                                                        W10
                                                                        W14.5
                                                                        W9.5
                                                                        L14
                                                                        L8
                                                                        W2
                                                                        W6
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L16.5
                                                                        L16
                                                                        L12.5
                                                                        W10
                                                                        L7
                                                                        L10
                                                                        L2.5
                                                                        HOU
                                                                        W2
                                                                        L3
                                                                        L21
                                                                        L3
                                                                        L27
                                                                        L34.5
                                                                        W6
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L3
                                                                        P
                                                                        L17
                                                                        L19
                                                                        W4.5
                                                                        L10
                                                                        L16
                                                                        L13
                                                                        W1
                                                                        IND
                                                                        L6
                                                                        L5
                                                                        W30
                                                                        W24.5
                                                                        W8.5
                                                                        L11
                                                                        W13
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W3
                                                                        L39
                                                                        P
                                                                        L26
                                                                        W5
                                                                        L6.5
                                                                        W16
                                                                        W24.5
                                                                        W7
                                                                        JAC
                                                                        L22.5
                                                                        L6.5
                                                                        L28
                                                                        L24.5
                                                                        L1.5
                                                                        W10.5
                                                                        L9
                                                                        L15.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W14.5
                                                                        L2
                                                                        W19
                                                                        W12.5
                                                                        W10
                                                                        L2.5
                                                                        P
                                                                        L7
                                                                        TEN
                                                                        W14
                                                                        W3
                                                                        P
                                                                        W21.5
                                                                        L6.5
                                                                        W5.5
                                                                        L10.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W4
                                                                        L14.5
                                                                        P
                                                                        W1.5
                                                                        L5
                                                                        L9
                                                                        L0.5
                                                                        P
                                                                        L1
                                                                        DEN
                                                                        W13
                                                                        W9
                                                                        W1
                                                                        W20.5
                                                                        L6
                                                                        L10.5
                                                                        L13
                                                                        W11.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W0.5
                                                                        W1
                                                                        L4
                                                                        W1.5
                                                                        W9
                                                                        L18.5
                                                                        W13
                                                                        W8.5
                                                                        SD
                                                                        L2
                                                                        W11
                                                                        P
                                                                        W9
                                                                        L15.5
                                                                        W11
                                                                        W9
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L6
                                                                        L0.5
                                                                        L6.5
                                                                        W6.5
                                                                        L7
                                                                        W19.5
                                                                        W18.5
                                                                        W2.5
                                                                        L10.5
                                                                        KC
                                                                        W22.5
                                                                        L2
                                                                        W13
                                                                        W20.5
                                                                        W6.5
                                                                        W8
                                                                        L6
                                                                        L2
                                                                        W5.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L1
                                                                        L6.5
                                                                        L1.5
                                                                        W32
                                                                        W18
                                                                        L24.5
                                                                        W10.5
                                                                        OAK
                                                                        W16
                                                                        W6.5
                                                                        L1
                                                                        L7
                                                                        W15.5
                                                                        L8
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W5.5
                                                                        L29
                                                                        W3.5
                                                                        W17
                                                                        L1.5
                                                                        W3
                                                                        L7
                                                                        L18
                                                                        L2.5
                                                                        L8.5




                                                                        NFC








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                                                                        NYG
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                                                                        L15
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                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L3.5
                                                                        W11
                                                                        L5.5
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                                                                        W11
                                                                        PHI
                                                                        W11
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                                                                        L20.5
                                                                        W15
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                                                                        L2.5
                                                                        W29
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                                                                        W3.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        P
                                                                        W13
                                                                        L25
                                                                        W40
                                                                        L5.5
                                                                        WAS
                                                                        L11
                                                                        L9
                                                                        L5
                                                                        W7
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L9.5
                                                                        W4
                                                                        L11.5
                                                                        W6
                                                                        L7
                                                                        L3.5
                                                                        L15.5
                                                                        L7
                                                                        L32
                                                                        W4.5
                                                                        W2
                                                                        L11
                                                                        DAL
                                                                        W2
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                                                                        W13.5
                                                                        L9
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                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W5.5
                                                                        L3
                                                                        L15
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                                                                        GB
                                                                        L1.5
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                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W2
                                                                        W2
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                                                                        CHI
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                                                                        P
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                                                                        L2
                                                                        DET
                                                                        W6
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                                                                        W5
                                                                        W6
                                                                        L2
                                                                        W14
                                                                        L5.5
                                                                        L2
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W2
                                                                        L13
                                                                        L11
                                                                        W23
                                                                        L13
                                                                        L6.5
                                                                        L14
                                                                        L3.5
                                                                        MIN
                                                                        L6
                                                                        W6
                                                                        L10
                                                                        W9.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L26
                                                                        L12
                                                                        L4
                                                                        W6
                                                                        W7
                                                                        L7
                                                                        W5.5
                                                                        W3
                                                                        W4
                                                                        W25
                                                                        L19
                                                                        W3.5
                                                                        NO
                                                                        W3
                                                                        L1
                                                                        W17
                                                                        W13.5
                                                                        W8
                                                                        L1.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W6.5
                                                                        L11.5
                                                                        W25
                                                                        L0.5
                                                                        L5.5
                                                                        L27
                                                                        W15
                                                                        L18
                                                                        L1
                                                                        W13
                                                                        ATL
                                                                        L3
                                                                        W0.5
                                                                        L2
                                                                        L9.5
                                                                        L12.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W1
                                                                        L13
                                                                        L14
                                                                        L20
                                                                        W12
                                                                        W5.5
                                                                        W8
                                                                        W2.5
                                                                        L4.5
                                                                        W5
                                                                        W4
                                                                        CAR
                                                                        L2
                                                                        L4.5
                                                                        W37
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L18.5
                                                                        W26
                                                                        W7.5
                                                                        W10.5
                                                                        W14
                                                                        W8
                                                                        W1
                                                                        L0.5
                                                                        W13
                                                                        L15
                                                                        L1
                                                                        W1
                                                                        L4
                                                                        TB
                                                                        L4
                                                                        W1
                                                                        L13
                                                                        L4
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L8.5
                                                                        L1
                                                                        L10.5
                                                                        L13.5
                                                                        W2
                                                                        W12
                                                                        W11
                                                                        L13
                                                                        W18.5
                                                                        L14.5
                                                                        L6.5
                                                                        L13
                                                                        SF
                                                                        W1.5
                                                                        L23
                                                                        L30
                                                                        W20.5
                                                                        W27
                                                                        W0.5
                                                                        W10.5
                                                                        W15.5
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        L8
                                                                        W0.5
                                                                        W15.5
                                                                        W1
                                                                        W1
                                                                        W14.5
                                                                        L5
                                                                        W5.5
                                                                        SEA
                                                                        W2
                                                                        W23
                                                                        W28
                                                                        W3
                                                                        L8.5
                                                                        L5.5
                                                                        W7.5
                                                                        L9.5
                                                                        L13.5
                                                                        W20
                                                                        W7
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W27
                                                                        L1
                                                                        W12
                                                                        L16.5
                                                                        W4
                                                                        STL
                                                                        L1.5
                                                                        L0.5
                                                                        L13.5
                                                                        L20.5
                                                                        W1.5
                                                                        W34.5
                                                                        L7.5
                                                                        W9.5
                                                                        L4
                                                                        W39
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        W20
                                                                        L1
                                                                        L16
                                                                        W18
                                                                        W6.5
                                                                        L4
                                                                        ARI
                                                                        W1.5
                                                                        W5.5
                                                                        L17
                                                                        W4
                                                                        W18.5
                                                                        L0.5
                                                                        L7.5
                                                                        W13
                                                                        BYE
                                                                        P
                                                                        W2
                                                                        W26
                                                                        P
                                                                        W16
                                                                        W0.5
                                                                        W16.5
                                                                        L5.5
                                                                        Comment
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