BAL under loses. I am going with them again today; tier 2.
| BAL U/8.5 -120 |
$37.20 |
-
Comment -
Today is bet #100. I have been on a skid with BAL. I am going
with them again today because nothing else stands out to me. If the
under fails again I will probably abandon BAL and find another team
to finish the chase.
O/U Chase
BAL
U/8.5 -110$86.02 Comment -
Overall Record: 14-12
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $5500
SD Padres -155 $775 to win $500
Comment -
Overall Record: 15-12
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $6000
Comment -
BAL under fails again. This brings me to tier 4. This is bet
#101 so I am switching to a standard Martingale. I am just trying to
capture the $30 from bets 98-100 plus the money lost on each. I am
dumping BAL and going with SEA today.
*SEA
U/7.5 -115$188.85 Comment -
Overall Record: 15-12
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $6000
SD Padres UNDER 7 -125 $250 to win $200Comment -
Kicked ass all season but this last chase is making me sweat!!!
On to tier 5 for only the second time during the O/U experiment.
Going with HOU in this round.
HOU
U/8.5 -130$458.99 Comment -
Overall Record: 16-12
Starting Bankroll: $6000
Current Bankroll: $6200
Back in the green. Lets close this out.
Wow. Arp that last bet is getting up there, I hope you close it out today.Comment -
Success!!!!
I
am proud to say that my experiment was a smashing success. I am
going to offer a few final thoughts before I prepare for the NFL.
The
over/under experiment was, in my opinion, the most important of all
of these experiments. Why? Because if my theory is correct then it
is the only experiment in the bunch that follows these cycles in
their purest form.
The
over/under is an arbitrary number imposed by the gambling community.
It is purely based on public opinion. The teams do not care whether
the score goes over or under this number. This allows the bubble
phenomenon to grow and implode at a pace set purely by the betting
public. As a result, the reactions are very quick most of the time.
I
was very pleased with the underdog experiment but this is not a pure
Pendulum Cycle as it requires the team to actually win the game. It
is perfectly conceivable for the heaviest underdog on the power
rankings to go on a 15 game losing streak or larger. Even with plus
odds my chase system could not survive more then 10 to 12 tiers. I
am very pleased with the results but I am much prouder of my success
with the over/under chase.
I
had two control experiments that I started out with. The first was
the heavy favorite parlays. I would parlay the the two heaviest
favored teams and chase. This is a control to the Pendulum Cycle
Theory because it is random. You typically have different teams each
day. A Martingale System in a random game will always eventually
fail. I am am stating that the results of the over/under chase were
not random. They were the result of the bubble patterns I have been
talking about. The Parlay chase did not even last 2 months before
showing signs of failure.
The
second control experiment was the Parlay Matrix, which eventually
evolved into the Semi-Arbitrage. Like the Favorite Parlay
experiment, this too is random because the teams are changing from
one bet to the next. The expectation is that this too should fail.
It eventually did, but not before giving me a wild ride and sticking
big dollar signs in my eyes. I had an amazing win streak of 34 games
in a row. I started compounding my profits using an anti-martingale
and the profits were adding up incredibly fast. I was doubling my
money roughly every week. It was a great run but eventually came
crashing back down to earth. I was enticed into putting real money
on this because the streak was so amazing. I turned $200 into over
$950 before it all fell apart. I put the brakes on after crashing
back down to $246. ( I believe that was the amount, it was in that
ball park. Very demoralizing after coming so close to reaching
$1,000) As exciting as all of this was, it was a terrible
distraction from the original goal; 40% for the season using the
Pendulum Cycle Theory. The Semi-Arbitrage may be worth looking into
in the future if I can find a way to gain an edge, but the conclusion
for this experiment is that it is a random game with a negative EV.
It will do what all chase systems do when faced with a negative EV.
The
over/under experiment ended with a positive EV. I went 52-44-6 for
54%. If you are locked into thinking flat-betting you are missing
the bigger picture. With each failed tier the odds increase that you
will cover as long as you are following the same team. These are
bubble patterns. Some bubbles will last longer then others which is
why I would abandon some teams after losing two or three in a row.
Most of these bubbles only take one or two games to return to the
mean. The final chase really tested my resolve. I chose to go with
HOU because the odds were higher; -130. My gut told me that this was
the most likely bubble ready to implode and I turned out to be right.
The
million dollar question is “Is this just luck?”. I have
encountered more then my share of haters on this forum while
conducting these chasing experiments because everybody “knows”
that chasing does not work. I placed 102 bets publicly, discussing
the thought process every step of the way. The results were better
then expected. The final chase was the scariest but still took less
then $1,000 of the $3,000 bankroll. The deepest I went was 5 tiers
and that only happened twice.
The
evidence is very strong. Chase systems can work because of this
unique bubble phenomenon. The system must be deep enough to outlast
the losing streaks. If you try to squeeze two much out of the system
with a shallow 3 tier chase you will get your ass handed to you.
However, if you are willing to give some real depth to your chase
system you can have a 40% ROI for a season.
I
racked up a 22% gain for the NBA this past season. I just racked up
40% in the MLB. If I can get 19% in the NFL I will have 100% on the
year. Here is an example using these ROIs on $1,000:
NBA:
$1,000 x 1.22 = $1,220
MLB:
$1,220 x 1.4 = $1,708
NFL:
$1,708 x 1.19 = $2,032.52
I
have refined my NFL system so I am expecting to get 38% instead of
the 19% previously expected. I also expect roughly 40% from the NBA.
I believe I can push these system to the point where I would be
making 300% per year. I would make 270% with the numbers I just
gave.
Conclusion:
If you choose to use a chasing system then you must take what the
bookies are giving you and not try to force too much out of the ROI.
40% seems very reasonable according to my research. If you compound
that over 3 seasons (MLB, NFL, and NBA) you can get a very
respectable 270% ROI for the year. Chase systems are very high risk
and are no substitute for top notch handicapping, but they can allow
someone to profit in sports who can not handicap. This phenomenon is
real, the system works. I'll see you in the NFL.Comment -
MLB
Chase Experiment 2014
Lowest
Ranked Underdog Experiment #1 ranked O/U
Experiment
[TABLE="width: 666"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
Date
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Team
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Bet
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
Win/Loss
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
Team
O/U
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
Bet
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Win/Loss
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/07/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Hou
+137
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$7.35
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
STL
O/7 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/08/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Hou
+154
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$17.76
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
O/6.5 -125
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/09/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Hou
+170
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$32.42
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
3
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
O/7 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$39.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/10/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Hou
+185
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$52.72
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
4
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
No
Play
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/11/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Cubs
+135
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$7.40
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
O/7 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/12/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Cubs
+205
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$4.88
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
6
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
O/6.5 +105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$29.52
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/13/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Cubs
+200
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$12.44
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
O/6.5 EV
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$10.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/14/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/15/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
0/8 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$36.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Postponed
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/16/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Cubs
+175
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$27.04
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
8
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
O/8 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$36.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/17/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
O/7.5 +105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$72.38
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/18/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Cubs
-105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$88.58
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
LAD
O/7 -105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$10.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/19/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Cubs
+130
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$140.72
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
10
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
LAD
O/7.5 +105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$29.05
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/20/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+132
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$7.58
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
11
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
LAD
O/7.5 -105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$10.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/21/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+108
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$25.53
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
12
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
LAD
O/7 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$33.55
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
P
11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/22/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+101
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$62.49
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
13
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
LAD
O/6.5 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$48.60
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/23/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+118
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$114.92
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
LAD
O/6.5 +117
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$93.56
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
13
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/24/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Break
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NY
Trip
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
Break
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
NY
Trip
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/28/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
MIL
O/7 +105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$9.53
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
14
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/29/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+135
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$7.41
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
15
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
MIL
O/7 -125
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
Postponed
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
04/30/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+133
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$20.61
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
16
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
MIL
O/7 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
15
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/01/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/02/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+170
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$34.13
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
17
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
MIL
O/7.5 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
16
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/03/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+117
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$8.55
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
18
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
MIL
O/7 EV
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$31.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
17
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/04/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
-115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$11.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
19
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
COL
U/10.5 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
18
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/05/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+225
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$14.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
20
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TEX
U/10.5 EV
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$10.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
19
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/06/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+160
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$34.69
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
21
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
SFO
U/7.5 -125
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/07/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+190
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$52.73
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
22
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
U/9 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
21
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/08/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+170
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$95.84
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
23
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
COL
U/9.5 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
22
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/09/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+150
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$6.67
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
24
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TOR
U/9 +105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$9.52
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
23
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/10/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+150
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$11.11
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
25
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
SD
U/6.5 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
24
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/11/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+155
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$24.37
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
26
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
SD
U/7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$26.40
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
25
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/12/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$8.70
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
27
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TOR
U/9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$85.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
26
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/13/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+104
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$27.60
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
28
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TOR
U/9 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$188.49
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
P
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/14/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
-109
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$10.90
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
29
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
OAK
U/9 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$188.49
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
27
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/15/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
CLE
U/9 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
28
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/16/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
-103
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$10.30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
COL
O/10 -105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$10.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
29
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/17/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
-123
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$37.27
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
31
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
COL
O/9.5 EV
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$30.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/18/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
-125
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$12.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
32
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ARI
U/9 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
31
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/19/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+180
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$5.56
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
33
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/20/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+160
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$6.25
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
34
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
OAK
U/8 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
32
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/21/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+180
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$14.58
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
35
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
LAA
U/8 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
33
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/22/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+132
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$38.51
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
36
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
MIA
U/7.5 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
34
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/23/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+215
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$46.20
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
37
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TEX
U/8 EV
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$10.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
35
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/24/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+118
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$131.81
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
38
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TEX
U/8.5 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$31.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
36
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/25/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+137
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$7.30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
39
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TEX
U/8.5 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$85.20
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
37
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/26/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+140
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$7.14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
40
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TEX
U/9 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$182.82
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
P
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/27/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+116
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$8.62
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
41
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TOR
U/8.5 +105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$165.23
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
38
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/28/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+135
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$7.41
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
42
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TOR
U/9 -105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$369.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
39
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/29/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$8.69
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
43
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ARI
U/9 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
40
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/30/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
-110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
44
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
05/31/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
-130
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$13.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
45
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
MIL
U/7.5 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
41
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/01/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
-101
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$23.23
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
46
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TOR
U/9 -105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$23.10
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
42
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/02/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/03/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
+115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$57.59
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
47
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NYM
U/8 +115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
43
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/04/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$8.33
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
48
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/05/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+118
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$8.47
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
49
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ARI/U10.5
-110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
44
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/06/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+104
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$9.62
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ARI/U8
-110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$23.10
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
45
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/07/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
-110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$32.58
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
51
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
PIT/U7.5
-105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$10.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
46
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/08/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
-105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$10.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
52
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
(PIT U wins)
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/09/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
HOU
U/9 -125
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$38.13
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
47
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/10/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
PHI
-102
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$10.02
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
53
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
CLE
U8 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
48
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/11/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
TB
+115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$8.70
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
54
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ATL
U/10 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$35.20
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
P
49
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/12/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
PHI
-113
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$11.40
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
55
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ATL
U/10 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$50.40
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/13/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
PHI
-125
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$12.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
56
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ATL
U7.5 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$122.88
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
51
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/14/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
PHI
-115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$37.38
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
57
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
BOS
U/9 +105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$9.52
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
52
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/15/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
PHI
-125
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$12.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
58
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
LAA
U/7.5 -125
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
53
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/16/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
PHI
+127
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$25.59
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
59
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
LAA
U/8.5 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$37.38
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
54
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/17/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
TB
-120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
60
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TEX
U/7 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
55
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/18/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
TB
-138
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$44.16
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
61
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TEX
U/7.5 -105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$33.60
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
56
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/19/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
TB
-155
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$133.55
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
62
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
PHI
U/8.5 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
57
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/20/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/21/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
CUBS
EV
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$10.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
63
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
MIL
U/11 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
58
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/22/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
CUBS
-121
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$36.30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
64
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
MIL
U/10.5 -105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$32.55
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
59
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/23/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
CUBS
-110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$83.93
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
65
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
MIL
U/8 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$80.91
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/24/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
CUBS
EV
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$170.53
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
66
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
SEA
U/7.5 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
61
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/25/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$9.52
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
67
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
SEA
U7 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$36.23
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
62
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/26/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/27/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+112
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$26.36
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
68
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
SEA
U/7.5 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$70.66
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
63
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/28/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
TB
+120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$8.33
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
69
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/29/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
TB
-110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
70
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ATL
U/8.5 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
64
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
06/30/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
TB
-110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
71
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
TB
U/8 EV
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$10.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
65
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/01/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$9.09
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
72
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
SEA
U/7.5 -110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
66
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/02/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+130
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$22.38
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
73
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
SEA
U/8.5 -105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$32.55
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
67
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/03/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+125
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$49.18
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
74
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
U/8.5 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
68
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/04/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+149
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$6.71
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
75
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ARI
U/7.5 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$36.23
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
69
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/05/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+136
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$19.64
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
76
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/06/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+156
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$36.12
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
77
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
WAS
U/6.5 -105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$10.5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/07/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
-113
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$11.30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
78
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/08/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
-118
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$11.80
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
79
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
HOU
U/9.5 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
71
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/09/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
-127
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$40.39
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
80
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
HOU
U/8 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$36.80
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
72
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/10/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
NP
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/11/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+137
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$7.30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
81
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
DET
U/8 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$94.56
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
73
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/12/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+107
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$25.51
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
82
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
HOU
U/7.5 -115
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$11.50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
74
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/13/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
+110
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$9.09
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
83
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ATL
U/9 -120
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$12.00
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
75
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/18/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
ARI
-130
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$37.82
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
84
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
ATL
U/7 -105
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$33.60
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
76
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/19/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
HOU
-102
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
$10.20
[/TD]
[TD="width: 72, bgcolor: #ff3333"]
L
85
[/TD]
[TD="width: 112"]
CLE
U/8.5 -110 gm 1
[/TD]
[TD="width: 77"]
$83.16
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87, bgcolor: #009900"]
W
77
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 86"]
07/20/14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 87"]
[FONT=Times NeComment -
I just posted a chart of the entire experiment for the underdog and O/U chase. I have color coded it to make it easy to follow. I am very pleased with the results of this experiment. I accomplished what I set out to accomplish. This experiment has ramifications for every major league sport. It can easily translate to the NBA, NFL, or even NHL. This is a major triumph for me.Comment -
I am happy you got your ROI on these chases, it can be scary.
I just don't quite understand your bubble theory. I just can't believe that if the Tigers score 12 runs, then the next game's total will be a little higher because the gambling community thinks that the offensive output will continue. I do believe a team's offensive output goes through small ups and downs.
Maybe just one more time, if you could explain your bubble theory in general. I don't see the quick shifts in the lines you do.
Tampa Bay scored 10 last night, the total is set at 9. The total has been 9 the whole series. The total is 9 because balls fly out in Texas and Texas has no pitching, but the Rays offense is a little weak and the Rays pitching is pretty good. So a solid 9 seems perfect for the whole series. I don't see the oddsmakers raising the total to a 9.5 just because the Rays scored 10 runs prior.Comment -
The
over/under is an arbitrary number imposed by the gambling community.
It is purely based on public opinion. The teams do not care whether
the score goes over or under this number. This allows the bubble
phenomenon to grow and implode at a pace set purely by the betting
public. As a result, the reactions are very quick most of the time.
You see -- you say the betting public set the pace, but I think the team's performance pops bubbles. The team's performance also blows the bubbles. The "odds line" is the membrane of a bubble.
For example, the Rays start scoring a ton of runs game after game. They are blowing a bubble. The membrane of that bubble needs to become thicker because the books need to adjust. The "line" goes up. The Rays eventually will have a dud of a game. The bubble is now popped.
My example does go along with your theory except I believe it takes longer for the books to adjust than you do. Chasing is just too dangerous unless you make doubly sure there is even a bubble to begin with.
The Pheonix Suns were supposed to be bad last year. I mean really bad. The first 2 months against the spread they were 22-7. They have established themselves as being much better than expected. The next 2 months they were 14-13. The odds have adjusted. BUT look, it was not profitable going against them. Your better off riding the formation of a bubble than going for 1 POP!Comment -
- The Pheonix Suns were supposed to be bad last year.
I mean really bad. The first 2 months against the spread they
were 22-7. They have established themselves as being much better
than expected. The next 2 months they were 14-13. The odds have
adjusted. BUT look, it was not profitable going against them.
Your better off riding the formation of a bubble than going for
1 POP!
Let me break down this example because it is ultimately supporting
what I have been saying all along. The Suns were expected to be
really bad. What do we know about the general public? They hate to
bet the underdog. The hate it!!!!! This combined with the worse
then normal expectations means the bookies had to overcompensate just
to get people to bet the Suns.
The next statement says it all. “In the first two months they
went 22-7”. Well why is that? Is it because the Suns were a great
team or is it because bookies were trying like hell to get money on
the Suns to balance out their books? The answer is undoubtedly the
latter. In this particular case I would chase the Suns to win. That
is exactly what I did with the Underdog Chase. I was betting that
the underdogs were not nearly as bad as what the public thought. The
public has a tendency to bet the favorites which is why you will find
local bookies that will shade the lines an extra point or two. This
creates value in the underdog.
In the end balance is always reached. Individual teams can go out
of whack but if the point spread is doing its job then the split
between favorites and underdogs will always be very close to 50/50.
These bubbles are not an anomaly within the system, they are the
system!!!!! The point spreads
and odds depend on these bubbles to keep things balanced.
This discussion should go much
longer then I have time for. You have a lot of great points and they
should all be addressed but I can not touch them all in one shot. I
hope you will be patient with me and we can continue this. I am
extremely busy right now. I feel like I have barely scratched the
surface and would like to go in depth.
I will close with this thought
though. I had two experiments that both went for 102 bets and
managed to survive in a system that is not supposed to work according
to the experts. In addition I had an NBA experiment I conducted just
prior to this based on the same principles which also succeeded.
This went for 77 bets. I have a total of 281 bets with a system that
is functioning exactly as I predicted it would. Either I am
extremely lucky or there is something to this theory. With the
amount of experiments on random games of chance as I have done I know
that 281 bets is more then enough to start showing cracks in the
martingale system. I have used blackjack with basic strategy, craps,
and roulette. They all fail over time. I do not need an expert's
opinion on this, for my own experiments show this. The results of
the sports experiments I have done on this forum have defied the
odds. I am telling you it is because they are not random. The edge
I have is the balancing act the odds and spreads are doing. They use
these bubbles to keep the books balanced. It is how the entire
system operates. As such, this phenomenon is not a result of luck,
or anomalies, it is systemic.
Is it risky? You bet your ass
it is. However, according my research 99% of all sports bettors
lose. Risky or not, I am currently sitting amongst the 1% who win.
You may not be convinced of these bubbles, but I absolutely am. If I
am wrong than this is nothing more then the ramblings of a fool. If
I am right then this is the most important development in betting
strategy since card counting. I believe that this can eventually be
refined to the point where it can pick a high percentage of winners
and the chase systems can be dropped completely. I am a long ways
away from that right now, but that is where all of this heading.Comment -
I have a hard time distinguishing between a team's performance and the books adjustment to the team's performance. There must be some time in between the adjustment. I just don't think one game is enough.....maybe in the NFL when you only have 16 game seasons.
I am not really challenging your theory, I am actually trying to work with you. I am trying to make improvements, but I need a clear understanding of what your theory actually points to.Comment -
Keel, let me first say that I do not mind if you do challenge and
debate my theory. As long as you are respectful we can exchange
ideas and consider the other person's point of view. By putting time
and thought into these debates we both will com out better for it.
What I can not stand is the yahoos that come along and start
name-calling and talking in a highly condescending manner. You and
Barstool have both challenged my ideas in a respectful manner. I
thank and honor both of you for that. The Pendulum Cycle Theory is
just that... ...a theory. Technically, when I first came out with
it, it was just a hypothesis, but I now have 2 years of testing
behind it and feel I can call it a theory. Could it still be proven
wrong. Sure it can. I do not think it will be, but I must stay
grounded and humble for I do not know everything there is to know.
Anyone who acts as though they do is an arrogant ass. That being
said, I have become thoroughly convinced of this theory.
I wanted to address the point you made where you can not tell the
difference between a bubble and a team's performance. I fully
understand where you are coming from. It is extremely well
disguised.
In the stock market when you have a company take off like a rocket
it is essentially a single variable. The public is hot on the
company and pushes it far beyond its actual value. The same thing is
happening in sports but it is much harder to detect. Why? Because
at any given time you have not one but two bubbles colliding. A
favorite team is caught in its cycle while the underdog is caught in
a very distinct cycle of its own. This being the case it takes an
extreme scenario to even recognize these bubbles for what they are.
The 2007 Patriots is the example I point to every time to demonstrate
this point. They are the proof I use to say that bubbles exist in
sports.
After witnessing that I thought long and hard about the point
spread system. How does it maintain almost perfect balance no matter
how you try to find an edge. The home dog approach in the NFL is an
old axiom that is supposed to be a sure money maker. Rich Allen says
in his ad for Sports Betting Professor that this idea will make you
go broke if you use it. I put this under the microscope and it all
makes perfect sense.
The home dog theory was an anomaly initially discovered by sharp
bettors. It worked brilliantly when it was first discovered. It
worked because the general public loves to bet the favorite. Over
time people made money with this strategy and word got out to the
point that people like myself (squares) now know about it and have
attempted to use it. This created a bubble and thus nullified the
strategy. The point spread system is designed to operate in this
manner. The balance it maintains is way too perfect. The anomalous
streaks should be much larger then they are. I have seen it in
roulette, craps and blackjack. Streaks of 15-20 in a row are not
anomalies, they are normal in random games. I have thousands of
trials I have conducted that demonstrate this over and over. Streaks
like this are non-existent in sports. (They could be out there but I
just have not come across them yet.) If the 2007 Patriots is the
first clue to the existence of bubbles then this is the second clue.
As I started to consider these two pieces of evidence suggesting
that this game is not random it dawned on me that these bubbles were
not some strange occurrence happening inside the system, they are the
very engine that drives it. Most of these bubbles are so short and
subtle that they can not be detected as bubbles. You say the totals
never changed on a series but I must beg to differ. The range for
totals is so tight that a ½ point move in the total itself is actual
a major move. Most of the bubbles are subtle and quick. All that is
needed is to alter the odds. If the total is 8 @ -110 and a team
goes over the next game might still have a total of 8 but the price
might be -115 or -120. Remember the multiple variables I talked
about? With totals the multiple variables are the pitchers. A game
goes over but you have an ace pitcher in the next game. The next
game has the same exact total and same price as the first. Has the
total fluctuated? Yes it has. With an ace pitcher, at the very
least, the total should be more expensive to bet. If the total
remains the same with the same price with this pitcher that signifies
a bubble because the total should be less, and more expensive.
Despite the visible non-movement of the total it has actually gone
up. The reason you can not discern between a teams performance and
the bubble is because most of the bubbles are very subtle. They do
not need to be extreme in most cases because the team's performance
will always be up and down. When a teams' performance is
consistently strong or weak that is when the extreme bubbles form
like the 2007 Patriots.
Go back and start looking at the outcomes of games purely from the
results ATS. Forget about the stats, weather, etc. You will see a
balancing act that is abnormal in its perfection. The absence of
truly large streaks signifies that something is at work other then
random chance.Comment -
Go back and start looking at the outcomes of games purely from the
results ATS. Forget about the stats, weather, etc. You will see a
balancing act that is abnormal in its perfection. The absence of
truly large streaks signifies that something is at work other then
random chance.
i have looked at team's point spreads trying to find a pattern. What I have found with NBA sides and totals and MLB totals is that it is semi streaky. You don't have too much alternating results --- usually 3-4 straight alternating patterns. It is still random enough for me not to exploit it perfectly. Are those the bubbles you speak of? I have found that after an elite NBA team gets smoked, the very next game, they win against the spread. Maybe the team bounces back harder? Maybe the odds are a bit lower? Maybe a combination?Comment -
Well I am shutting down my 2 game chase. overall, I was happy with my results. Although i was One game away from complete failure. It may not show it in the overall results but had it not been for the first 2 weeks, it showed exactly the results I expected.
Which is what this racket is all about, betting the expected and obtaining those results. I will continue this next year and will be assured of positive results.
Arp congrats on your season as well. I will be following closely as time goes on.
I am really excited about your NFL season coming up, I tend to only break even at best, and that is not good enough. But I would like to apply some of your thoughts on the NBA season as i tend to kill it on the halftimes.
So I will check back in when week 1 starts up, good luck guys.Comment -
There are multiple variables at work, all aligning in perfect
harmony. A team gets smoked and tries harder in the next game.
That is one variable. Another variable is the public just got
burned and burned badly when this team got smoked. This means
the spread must be altered to get the public to take them again.
Since the public is gun shy now the spread must overcompensate in the
opposite direction to entice them back in. This is when the
value is at its highest. It is vitally important to remember
that is it is not simply if they won or lost ATS, but by how much?
Winning or losing by 2-3 points does not have the same psychological
impact as winning or losing by 20-30 ATS. The more extreme the
result is the more dramatic the reaction will be. The
2007 Patriots were an anomaly in that the public was very slow
to catch on that they were undervalued. Since it took so long
for the spread to catch up to the Patriots' performance when the
bubble finally popped the descent in the spreads were almost as slow
as the ascent. The teams had caught on and started playing the
Pats competitively long before the spreads sank back down to anything
even close to reasonable. The alternating patterns you are
talking about are indeed the bubbles!!! You must remember that
the spread is not a prediction of the game, it is rather a projection
of public opinion. If spreads were truly efficient then every
game would result in a push. That isn't good for anyone.
The 3-4 game streaks are an average. You want a chase system
that is deep enough to deal with the extremes while shallow enough to
also make a decent profit. I think you are still trying to beat
the "randomness" with a high percentage like a pro
handicapper would. That is the ultimate goal but you do not
need to do this. A 50% win rate is more then enough to be
profitable if you know that your system is deep enough to handle any
but the most extreme of losing streaks. The results of one
highly effect the outcome of the next by determining the odds for the
next game. It is reliable because you can count on the public
to over-react and do the exact opposite of what they should do.Comment -
Congrats to you as well Barstool. While you look at you results in a bit of a negative light I see the comeback you staged as very impressive. Chasing is a very risky business, even when you have an edge. You hung it all on the line and came out smiling. That is what it is all about. I am debating whether to place any bets in the first 3 weeks of the NFL. I have made improvements to my system which dictate that you should wait for a 3 game losing streak. I think I can start out following a heavy favorite in the early weeks and then switch once the losing streaks become available, but I am still on the fence with that. I blew up my bankroll last year. I lasted all the way to week 16. I had not one but three miracle comebacks like the one you staged. I felt invincible by week 16 and that would prove to be my undoing. I had my serving of humble pie. I went back to the drawing board and the system I am going to use this year is not only the best I have put out to date, it is also probably the simplest. My initial expectations were 19% but with my latest improvements I believe I can hit 38% ROI.Comment -
Hi Keel, one example from the NFL is last year's Super Bowl. You had the Broncos, a historically good franchise with a superstar QB averaging 37 points a game, versus the Seahawks, a rushing team with a QB whose numbers are pretty terrible in comparison. The bookies put the Broncos as the favorites at -3. That line pretty much didn't move.
We all know the result. But I will submit to you that most line makers knew the Seahawks were going to win and that there was a pretty good chance it would be ugly. They, however, were forced to place the line pretty close to even in order to balance their books. If they had given a line closely reflecting their capping - say, Seahawks -14, - people would have overbet the Broncos like crazy and they would have been at risk should the Broncos cover. So they gave a middle-of-the-road line with the superstar QB slightly favored.
(As a helpful hint, a better than average passing team facing a better than average rushing team covers the spread only about 51 percent of the time. They cover the money line about 49 percent of the time.)
What arp is trying to do is find more common occurrences of these undervalued markets. What you are saying, about the book adjusting based on performance, is partially true, but it's more like the book is aware that the average bettor HAS BECOME AWARE that the particular market is undervalued. If you can realize it first, you can profit.Comment -
The Atlanta Braves are in a divisional race. They recently lost 8 in a row. They come home and face the division leader. The odds were close to even. The Braves win 2 out of 3. Then they face the Dodgers in a 4 game set and the A's in a 3 game set --- probably the 2 best teams in the league. The odds on them were as follows:
-180
-125
-130
-130
-130
-110
I don't understand why they are favored like that? The Braves may have popped the ol' bubble in their performance, but wow, I don't see any adjustment from the books. As a matter of, it is like they are almost predicting a turn around.Comment -
It has been a while since I have been on SBR. I have been busy with other things and this experiment has concluded. To answer your question, what was the result of the games in question. -180 is the high point in this reversal. Did they outperform expectations in the game right before, and if so by how much? The second part of that question is the most overlooked and also the most important. That is the key to how the public will react. If they won and it was close then it will not have a big effect on the odds, but if they completely outperformed expectations, either by scoring a ton of runs, or by the pitcher not allowing many runs when he was expected to, these things will effect the odds. From -180 we see a gradual regression to -110 with most games sitting at -130. The results of those games tell the story about what is happening with the odds. You have only placed half the information needed to determine a bubble. It is there. These bubbles are really tough to see most of the time. I suggest you go back and look at the 10 point teaser strategy I posted in my first and second year of these experiments in the NFL. The fluctuation against the spread is tough to notice until you start looking at it with a 10 point filter. It starts to show itself then. The more polarized the league is the better the results are. Unfortunately the league became far less polarized then in years past last year. The dominant teams were less dominate, and the crap teams were much stronger then in years past. I expect that trend to continue this year. If I am right then most of the bubbles will be so rapid that you will not recognize them as bubbles. If I am right then you will see me pass 100% ROI in combined results from the NBA, MLB, and NFL. I got 22% in the NBA. I got 40% in the MLB. I was originally targeting 19% in the NFL but do to results from the MLB experiment I have made refinements that lead me to believe I can hit 38%. If I am wrong then sooner or later I will fall on my face. So far my theory is defying the odds. A chase system can not be considered successful until it passes 100% ROI. We will see if I can pass that mark in the NFL. I only need to hit 19% to achieve the 100% ROI/year goal. I feel very strongly that I am going to hit it and then some.Comment
