Pendulum Cycle Theory: MLB chase experiment

arpeggiomeister · 04-07-14, 10:24 AM

The Houston Astros are at the bottom of the ESPN Power Rankings. We will start our first chase with them. They are +136 so we will bet $7.35 to win $10. Again, this is a paper trade. The chase system sill need to be very large and I may find during course of these experiments that it is necessary to reduce the $10 unit to something smaller. We will see how it unfolds.

arpeggiomeister · 04-07-14, 10:27 AM

I am going to chase the totals on the #1 ranked team as well to see what happens. Currently the #1 is the Cardinals on ESPN. The total is 6.5 for -110. We will bet $11 to win 10 on the over.

thekoreanmang · 04-07-14, 10:36 AM

For what it's worth, I've seen multiple cappers (both touts and amateurs) choose HOU today.

arpeggiomeister · 04-08-14, 10:14 AM

Houston loses, Cardinals hit the over. ESPN has new rankings and the Tigers are now on top so I will switch to them for the totals.

arpeggiomeister · 04-08-14, 10:17 AM

Todays games: Houston +154 - risk $17.76 to win $27.35. This would win back the $7.35 we lost plus $20. (We are attempting to win $10 for each bet placed in a Grand Martingale) Detroit over 6.5 $12.50 to win $10

arpeggiomeister · 04-08-14, 10:19 AM

The Cubs have dropped to the bottom in the power rankings but I will not switch until that chase is completed.

arpeggiomeister · 04-09-14, 09:42 AM

Houston loses and DET goes under. Hou is +170 today. We will place $32.42 on them to win $55.11. We will bet DET on the over -120 for $39 to win $32.50.

arpeggiomeister · 04-09-14, 10:11 AM

I am wondering if it would not make sense to create a chase system with parlays on heavy favorites. This would follow the Pendulum Cycle Theory closer because the teams are expected to win. The odds just changed on me as I was checking this out, but we will try a 3rd chase with this idea in mind. TOR -200 and WAS -200. $8 to win $10.

arpeggiomeister · 04-10-14, 08:35 AM

The parlay wins, the over bet wins, Astros lose.

arpeggiomeister · 04-10-14, 08:45 AM

Today's bets

Houston +185 $52.72 to win $97.53

Detroit has the day off

Parlay: WAS and TOR again Both are -225 on Betdsi. $9.20 to win
$10

arpeggiomeister · 04-11-14, 09:31 AM

Houston wins. Cubs are now ranked #30 so I will switch to them for the next chase. My parlay lost so I will give chase with another.

arpeggiomeister · 04-11-14, 10:06 AM

Today's games.

Underdog chase: Cubs +135 for $7.40 to win $10

O/U chase: Detroit Over -110 $11 to win $10

Parlay chase: Tex -230 and Sfo -170 $15.02 to win $19.21

I have been trying yet another experiment which is an offshoot of
something I did in the NFL that I call a parlay matrix. I do have
real money on this albeit not a lot. What I am doing is finding the
heaviest favorite on the roster. I prefer -200 or better. I then
parlay the underdog to both the over and the under. I then take the
favorite on the -1.5 spread. I balance everything out so that I make
a small profit if any one of these scenarios hit. The only way to
lose is if the favorite team wins by only one run. I realize that
this happens quite often in baseball, especially if a game goes into
extra innings. I am counting on the idea that a team that is favored
that heavily will beat their opponent by 2 runs or more most of the
time. I did this with Washington last night and it worked. I am
doing it again tonight.

The return on this bet is tiny so it does not lend itself well to
typical chase systems. I have put in a bankroll of $210 and I try to
keep the bets under $20. If I lose I will give chase with a matrix
totaling close to $200. If I lose 2 times in a row my account is
blown so this is very risky. That is why I am not funding it with a
lot of money. My goal is to see if I can squeeze 38% ROI out of a
season. If I can manage this then I can integrate this with the
strategies I have going on the NFL and NBA and compound profits into
a 100% ROI per year. This style of bet has a very high probability
of covering but also a high risk of ruin so I will have to see how
this plays out. If the heavy dogs can manage to stay within one run
more often then what I am thinking then this experiment is doomed to
fail.

Today's Parlay Matrix:

HOU +190 and Over 8 -105 Risking $4 to win $18.65

HOU +190 and Under -115 Risking $4 to win $17.69

TEX -1.5 -110 Risking $11 to win $10

Risking a total of $19. If any of these scenarios play out I win
a minimum of $2. If the Ranger win by 1 run I lose. I must rack up
about 38 wins to hit my 38% target. There are 162 games in the
regular season and 30 teams. That should give me 2,430 games to
choose from. I should be able to find 40 to 50 games that fit my
criteria out of that.

arpeggiomeister · 04-11-14, 11:41 PM

Ouch!!! I expected this might happen, but not so soon. Rangers win by 1 run. I will see what the games look like tomorrow and see if I want to follow through with the chase or back off and do that one on paper. I will probably see it through but I am definitely shaken by this result. If I could mitigate the risk of ruin I still like the idea but at this point it looks like the risk outweighs the rewards.

arpeggiomeister · 04-11-14, 11:44 PM

Cubs win. Detroit over loses. Giants and Texans win parlay.

arpeggiomeister · 04-12-14, 10:29 AM

I decided to grit my teeth and go ahead with the parlay matrix
chase. This experiment could be done before it begins. If I survive
today's bet I may paper trade this and switch to the heavy favorite
parlay chase but I wanted to see this through and not have any
excuses.

Today's plays

Underdog Chase: CHI +205 $4.88 to win $10

O/U Chase: DET O6.5 +105 $29.52 to win $31

Parlay Chase: STL -235 and LAA -160 $7.60 to win $10

Parlay Matrix Chase:

CHI +205 O7 EV $40 to win $204

CHI +205 U7 -120 $40 to win $183.26

STL -1.5 -110 $118 to win $107.27

arpeggiomeister · 04-13-14, 11:09 AM

The Parlay Matrix covered. Cubs lose, DET over wins, Angels lose. My internet is down at the moment and I am at McDonald's trying to update this. I will be on the Cubs +200 again today for the underdog chase. I will be on Detriot over 6.5 EV risking $10. I am on STL and TEX for the parlay. I am doing the Parlay Matrix on CHI and STL. CHI +200/O7.5 for $4 to win $20.60. CHI +200/U7.5 $4 to win $17.60 and STL -1.5 -110 $11 to win $10. I do not have time to calculate the Cubs chase or the parlay chase at the moment but since these are papertrades I figured it would be acceptable to update the amounts later. This is grand martingale and my goal is to win $10 with each bet on these chases so the parameters are set. I am updating this now so I can get the plays out before the games start. After my scare with the parlay matrix I am switching my real money trial to the heavy favorite parlay chase. I am risking $1.57 to win $2. Since I started this as a chase to win $10 per bet in a grand martingale I will have to calculate for the papertrade. I will update as soon as my internet is available and I have access to a calculator. I am pressed for time at the moment so I can not do it now. My apologies

arpeggiomeister · 04-13-14, 06:41 PM

CHI would be $12.44. This game lost. Detroit over loses. The parlay chase on STL and TEX wins. To continue a Grand Martingale I would need to bet $27.60. The parlay matrix succeeded. I am left with a slight paradox in that my paper trade experiments are based on $10 units but when I started the Parlay Matrix experiment I was using $210 so my units are only $2 because I did not want to risk more. I am interested in ROI primarily. If it works I can feed it with more money. My objective is to combine NFL, NBA, and MLB results into 100% ROI. My target for the NFL and NBA was 26%. At the end of my experiments in these sports I fell below my target, just under 20% for the NFL, and 22% in the NBA. To reach my goal of 100% I need to hit about 40% in the MLB. due to the sheer volume of games in the MLB I am well on target to hit that. Starting with $200 or $200,000 becomes irrelevant to me because if I can maintain this rate I can compound tiny amounts of money into enormous amounts. If you were to double $200 10 times you get $204,800. If my experiments are successful then I will back them with several thousand dollars over time. I plan to make 6 figures in 6 years or less.

arpeggiomeister · 04-14-14, 10:30 AM

There are no plays today. Cubs and DET Tigers are not playing and there is no team on the boards for -200 or more. The most important thing to do when playing a strategy is not to force a bet when nothing meets your criteria.

arpeggiomeister · 04-15-14, 11:50 AM

The Yankees/Cubs game was cancelled today so there is no play on
the underdog chase.

There has been changes is in the power
rankings to both the #1 and #30 spots. I will finish the chases with
the Cubs and Tigers and switch to the new teams afterwards.

The parlay matrix is a little different today. Instead of leaning
on the underdog with +200 or more I parlayed the -1.5 spread with the
total. Same basic concept just reversed.

Underdog chase
O/U chase

04/15/14

NP

DET
08

$36.00

Parlay chase

04/15/14

WAS
-173 KC -155

$6.27

Parlay matrix

04/15/14	SDP -1.5/O7 -105	$4.00 - $17.48
	SDP -1.5/U7 -115	$4 - $16.57
	COL +116	$10 - $11.60

mcdonae101 · 04-15-14, 01:13 PM

This is really interesting, more so than the nba system since there r more games here

Capper1124 · 04-15-14, 01:43 PM

God stuff. Very interesting

arpeggiomeister · 04-16-14, 11:02 AM

Thank you for your interest gentlemen.

The reason there are more games is because I am fishing for a way to make this theory work in a game that does not have point spreads. It is a bit of a different animal. That is why I am trying so many different things. My goal is singular in nature. I am looking to be able to make 100% ROI a year. My initial goal was to get 26% ROI in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. The NBA experiment helped me fine tune both the NFL and NBA. The ROI fell short at 19.9% and 22% respectively. Those ROIs will be very consistent due to the nature of these chase systems. In order to hit my goal I need to hit roughly 40% ROI in MLB. I think this is feasible due to the sheer volume of games. If I can nail this down I can compound $2,000 into $128,000 in 6 years. If I can not hit 40%ROI in the MLB it will take longer.

arpeggiomeister · 04-16-14, 11:04 AM

We had some games postponed due to weather. For the record I
am on NYY game 1. Detroit just has one game so that should be
straight forward. Here are today's bets:

Underdog and O/U chase

04/16/14

Cubs
+175

$27.04

DET
O8

$36.00

Parlay Chase

04/16/14

NYY
-210 DET -147

$17.75

Parlay Matrix

04/16/14	Cubs +175/O7.5 -110	$4 - $17
	Cubs +175/U7.5 -110	$4 - $17
	NYY -1.5 -105	$10.50 - $10

arpeggiomeister · 04-17-14, 07:47 AM

Only bet that covers is the Parlay Matrix. There will be no
Parlay matrix todays as nothing fits my criteria. Cubs are off.

O/U Chase

DET
O7.5

$72.38

Parlay Chase

04/17/14

TB
-172 DET -155

$33.73

crackerjack · 04-17-14, 08:55 AM

Interesting...subscribed

arpeggiomeister · 04-18-14, 07:09 AM

Detroit over covers. Parlay chase loses, moves to tier 4. I am
on my 4^th tier with the Cubs as well who are actually
slightly favored. I grabbed them at -105 and as I was writing this
they moved to -106. It is still too early for the spreads so I will
update the Parlay Matrix play a little later. We have not one, but
two strong candidates.

The LA Dodgers have moved to #1 on ESPN so I am using them for the
new over/under chase. I am still trying to score a win with the Cubs
before I can move to the next underdog. Perhaps where they are
slightly favored today they can actually score a win. :P

Here are the plays for today:

underdog chase

Cubs
-105

$88.58

O/U chase

LAD
O7

$10.50

Parlay Chase

LAD
-200 OAK -210

$80.50

arpeggiomeister · 04-18-14, 10:09 AM

Okay, here is the Parlay Matrix play

HOU +180/O7 -110	$4 – 17.38
HOU +180/U7 -110	$4 - $17.38
OAK -1.5 -110	$11 - $10

arpeggiomeister · 04-18-14, 10:13 AM

The copy and paste looks a little weird. It is supposed to be $4 to win $17.38 on both Houston parlays. It puts the amount underneath. Weird. I hope the regular parlay chase wins today. I have real money on it albeit not that much, but the chase is starting to get deep so it could start threatening my bankroll if I do not score a win soon. I have at least 3 tiers left, but it makes me nervous to see a chase go beyond 4 tiers.

arpeggiomeister · 04-19-14, 10:48 AM

The only winner was again the parlay matrix. We are on the 5^th
tier with the parlay chase and the underdog chase. That is getting
pretty deep. I was expecting this from the underdog but I really
hope the parlay chase pans out pretty soon

I have calculated for $10 units but I may switch after this chase
concludes because I am playing these for real with a tiny bankroll.
It is the ROI that is important and that can be easily calculated at
the end of the experiment no matter what size the bankroll is. I
started this week with roughly $220 and if the parlay chase loses
today I will be down to $157. I have got maybe 2 tiers left. I do
not think I can squeeze 3 out of it unless I put more money in.
These are experiments and I do not feel I have enough confidence in
these ideas to risk more at this point.

Today's plays are

Underdog Chase

Cubs
+130

$140.72

O/U Chase

LAD
O7.5

$29.05

Parlay Chase

LAD
-210 OAK -220

$164.10

Parlay Matrix

HOU +180/O7.5 +105	$3.75 - $17.77
HOU +180/U7.5 -125	$4.25 - $17.17
OAK -1.5 -EV	$10.00 - $10.00

arpeggiomeister · 04-20-14, 10:22 AM

We had a total role reversal. On my previous update everything
but the Parlay Matrix lost. Today's update everything but the Parlay
Matrix won. This will test the Parlay Matrix strategy for if it
loses twice in a row it blows up the bankroll. Pretty dangerous
which is why I stopped backing it and switched to the parlay chase.
So far it has been performing very well so I will keep doing it to
see if it can survive to 40% ROI. That is my target exit point for
all of these experiments in the MLB.

The #1 ranked team on
ESPN is currently the Dodgers. #30 is currently the Diamonbacks. I
will switch to Arizona for the underdog chase since the Cubs have
concluded their chase.

Today's plays:

underdog chase

ARI
+132

$7.58

O/U chase

LAD
O7.5

$10.50

Parlay chase

KC
-185 OAK -245

$1.71

parlay matrix

HOU +205/O7.5 -115	$43 - $202.19
HOU +205/U7.5 -105	$42 - $208.10
OAK -1.5 -115	$130 - $113.04

arpeggiomeister · 04-20-14, 11:32 AM

Had to edit the parlay matrix multiple times to get the balance right. I used the full remaining balance to create the parlay matrix so if it wins it will advance the bankroll by several units. I did this because of this parlay matrix fails there is no coming back from it. We would need 117 wins in a row with no losses. That is not going to happen so it is better to hang it all on the line and hope for the best. Chasing is risky business and requires guts. I am putting it on the line and making no excuses. The bankroll was at $233.87 before the loss and currently stands at $215.87. If any of these legs hit the bankroll will go over $243. That is a minimum of a 5 unit jump. To hit the target of 40% ROI we need to reach $308. This strategy is risky as hell but I think it just might pull it off.

arpeggiomeister · 04-20-14, 11:15 PM

Parlay Matrix covers, all other bets lose. See you in the morning.

arpeggiomeister · 04-21-14, 08:38 AM

We are on tier 2 for every bet except the Parlay Matrix today.

Underdog chase

ARI
+108

$25.53

O/U chase

LAD
O7

$33.55

Parlay chase

SEA
-265 DET -195

$5.27

Parlay Matrix

HOU +225/O6.5 -105	$3.75 - $20.04
HOU +225/U6.5 -115	$3.75 - $19.04
SEA -1.5 -115	$11.50 - $10.00

arpeggiomeister · 04-22-14, 10:32 AM

The Parlay Matrix is the only one that covers. We did however get
a push on the over bet. I am adding an additional $10 to keep the
Grand Martingale going.

The Astros/over covered in the Parlay Matrix which gave us a good
sized boost. We picked up $4.79 instead of the target $2.00. If I
weren't so lazy I would calculate the larger gains for the favorite
team because it is most likely that they will cover these bets. That
will be a project for when I have a little more time. Right now I
have been aiming for $2 on the favorite and balancing the underdog
parlays so that I profit if the underdog wins. It is very fuzzy
logic with no well-defined parameters.

Today's bets

Underdog chase

ARI
+101

$62.49

O/U chase

LAD
O6.5

$48.60

Parlay chase

DET
-250 TB -205

$12.00

Parlay Matrix

CHI WS +210/08 -115	$3.75 - $17.98
CHI WS +210/U8 -105	$3.75 - $18.95
DET -1.5 -115	$11.50 - $10