Pendulum Cycle Theory: MLB chase experiment

[arpeggiomeister]

Definitely have 9 lives. The Parlay Matrix covers and is very
close to hitting 40%. Two more bets should do it... ...as long as
they cover that is. Houston loses so we continue our chase. The over
under streak comes to an end after 6 in a row. I am going to try SD
again and chase it. It might not cover right away but the main
premise of my theory is that the over bet will become overvalued
making the under a strong bet.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +155

$24.37

O/U Chase

SD U7

$26.40

Parlay Matrix

SFO +150/O6 -120	$4.75 - $17.02
SFO +150/U6 EV	$4.25 - $17.00
LAD -1.5 +135	$9 -$12.15

[arpeggiomeister]

The Parlay Matrix covers and hit my target of 40% ROI. I will
post the results. Despite the successful trial I think that only
having 2 tiers is dangerous. This strategy is ultra risky. I can
not tack on another tier for it would make the ROI so small that it
is just not worth it. Actually, now that I think of it, if you were
to do 3 tiers it would add a serious measure of safety, but you would
be looking at making roughly 12% for the season. Greed is the number
one killer in this game so 12% is not really that bad in the grand
scheme of things.





The Astros won last night. They are still on the bottom of the
ESPN power rankings so we start a new chase with them. The under bet
lost and SD is not playing today so I am switching to TOR/LAA. I
would also note that the Rockies went under and it would probably be
a good bet to start chasing them with the over since they have been
on fire lately. I will stick with the under for today though.





Today's bets:





Underdog Chase

HOU +115

$8.70

O/U chase

TOR U9

$85.50

Here are the results from the Parlay Matrix experiment.

04/10/14	MIA +185/O +105	$4.00 - $19.36	L	L
	MIA +185/U -125	$4.00 - $16.52	L	L
	WAS EV	$9 - $9	W	W $221
04/11/14	HOU +190/O8 -105	$4.00 - $18.65	L	L
	HOU +190/U8 -115	$4.00 - $17.69	L	L
	TEX -1.5 -110	$11.00 - $10.00	L	L $202
04/12/14	CHI +205/O7 EV	$40 - $204	L	L
	CHI +205/U7 -120	$40 - $183.67	L	L
	STL -1.5 -110	$118.00 - $107.27	W	W $225.27
04/13/14	CHI +200/O7.5	$4 - $20.60	L	L
	CHI +200/U7.5	$4 - $17.60	L	L
	STL -1.5 -110	$11 - $10	W	W $227.27
04/14/14	NP
04/15/14	SDP -1.5/O7 -105	$4.00 - $17.48	L	L
	SDP -1.5/U7 -115	$4 - $16.57	L	L
	COL +116	$10 - $11.60	W	W $229.87
04/16/14	Cubs +175/O7.5 -110	$4 - $17	L	L
	Cubs +175/U7.5 -110	$4 - $17	L	L
	NYY -1.5 -105	$10.50 - $10	W	W $231.87
04/17/14	NP
04/18/14	HOU +180/O7 -110	$4 – 17.38	L	L
	HOU +180/U7 -110	$4 - $17.38	L	L
	OAK -1.5 -110	$11 - $10	W	W $233.87
04/19/14	HOU +180/O7.5 +105	$3.75 - $17.77	L
	HOU +180/U7.5 -125	$4.25 - $17.17	L
	OAK -1.5 -EV	$10.00 - $10.00	L	$215.87
04/20/14	HOU +205/O7.5 -115	$43 - $202.19	L
	HOU +205/U7.5 -105	$42 - $208.10	L
	OAK -1.5 -115	$130 - $113.04	W	$243.04
04/21/14	HOU +225/O6.5 -105	$3.75 - $20.04	L
	HOU +225/U6.5 -115	$3.75 - $19.04	L
	SEA -1.5 -115	$11.50 - $10.00	L	$247.83
04/22/14	CHI WS +210/08 -115	$3.75 - $17.98	L
	CHI WS +210/U8 -105	$3.75 - $18.95	L
	DET -1.5 -115	$11.50 - $10	W	$250.33
04/23/14	CHI WS +160/O8.5 -115	$4.50 - $17.37	W
	CHI WS +160/U8.5 -105	$4.50 – $18.34	L
	DET -1.5 +105	$10 - $10.50	L	$252.70
04/24/14	Break
04/29/14	CIN -1.5 +160/O7.5 -110	$4.50 - $17.84	L
	CIN -1.5 +160/U7.5 -110	$4.50 - $17.84	L
	CUBS +125	$9.00 - $11.25	L	$234.70
04/30/14	CIN -1.5 +105/O7.5 -120	$70.00 - $193.08	L
	CIN -1.5 +105/U7.5 EV	$65.00 - $201.50	L
	CUBS +165	$99.70 - $164.50	W	$264.70
05/01/14	NP
05/02/14	HOU +170/O7.5 -120	$4.25 - $16.79	W
	HOU +170/U7.5 EV	$3.75 - $16.50	L
	SEA -1.5 -115	$11 - $9.56	L	$266.74
05/03/14	PHI -1.5 +180/O7.5 -105	$3.85 - $17.20	W
	PHI -1.5 +180/U7.5 -115	$4.15 - $17.57	L
	WAS EV	$10.00	L	$269.79
05/04/14	ATL +165/O7 -115	$4.50 - $17.79	L
	ATL +165/U7 -105	$4.50 - $18.78	L
	SFO +117	$10 - $11.70	W	$272.49
05/05/14	HOU +225/O7.5 -110	$3.50 - $18.22	L
	HOU +225/U7.5 -110	$3.50 - $18.22	L
	DET -1.5 -115	$11 - $9.56	W	$275.05
05/06/14	SEA +153/O7 -120	$4.50 -$16.37	W
	SEA +153/U7 -EV	$4.50 - $18.27	L
	OAK+133	$9 -$11.97	L	$277.92
05/07/14	HOU +190/O9 EV	$3.75 - $18	L
	HOU +190/U9 -120	$4.25 - $18.35	L
	DET -1.5 -115	$11.50 - $10.00	L	$258.42
05/08/14	HOU +170/09 -110	$55 - $228.50	L
	HOU +170/U9 -110	$55 - $228.50	W
	DET -1.5 EV	$148 - $148	L	$283.92
05/09/14	COL +160/O EV	$4.75 - $17.89	L
	COL +160 U -120	$4.25 - $17.85	L
	CIN -1.5 +115	$10 - $11.50	L	$274.92
05/10/14	MIN +215/O -105	$34 - $175.01	L
	MIN +215/U -115	$36 - $176.01	L
	DET -120	$120 - $100	W	$304.92
05/11/14	SFO +150/O6 -120	$4.75 - $17.02	W
	SFO +150/U6 EV	$4.25 - $17.00	L
	LAD -1.5 +135	$9 -$12.15	L	$308.69

[arpeggiomeister]

Both bets lose. I am going to take Toronto again today on the
under.





I have decided to continue the Parlay Matrix experiment and add a
3^rd tier. This will produce somewhere around 12% ROI for
the season if I do not crash and burn. That is a far cry from my
target of 40% but having a 3^rd tier just might make this a
viable strategy. Greed is the number one killer of bankrolls. If
12% is what this strategy will yield than I must accept it for what
it is. I can not just back test this to see if it will work because
there are often multiple games that fit the criteria. The only way
to find out is do an experiment like this. The bankroll would need
to be $2,220 to sustain this.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +104

$27.60

O/U Chase

TOR U9 -115

$188.49

Parlay Matrix

CWS +170/O8.5 -120	$4.50 - $17.78
CWS +170/U8.5 EV	$4.00 - $ 17.60
OAK -1.5 EV	$10.50 -$10.50

[arpeggiomeister]

Houston and the Parlay Matrix both cover, TOR under pushes.





Today's plays:





Underdog

HOU -109

$10.90

O/U

OAK U9 -115

$188.49

Parlay Matrix

CWS +175 O9 -105	$3.90 - $17.04
CWS +175 U9 -115	$4.10 - $16.98
OAK -1.5 EV	$11 - $11

[arpeggiomeister]

Everything covered last night. HOU has the day off so there is no
underdog chase today.





Although I am sticking with the under strategy right now I would
note that COL went under and if they they stay true to form then they
will probably hit the over within the next two or three games. CLE
exploded last night, scoring 15 runs, so we are going with the under
today.





Today's plays:





O/U chase

CLE U9 -120

$12.00

Parlay Matrix

CUBS +170/O6.5 -115	$4.15 - $16.80
CUBS +170/U6.5 -105	$3.95 - $16.87
STL -1.5	$9.90 - $11.39

[arpeggiomeister]

The under and the Parlay Matrix covered. There will be no Parlay
Matrix today as nothing fits my criteria.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU -103

$10.30

O/U Chase

COL O10 -105

$10.50

[arpeggiomeister]

Both bets lost so we go to the second tier on both. The Astros
are favored to win for a second day in a row. It is a little ironic
considering that we are calling this the underdog chase, but it is
what it is. I am going to continue riding COL to hit the over.






The Parlay Matrix is not the usual set up I look for but it
balanced really well. LAA is +140 on the spread. This allowed me to
raise the bet on the parlays from $4 to $5. I typically want to see
the underdog around +180, +200 is ideal. I want the favorite to have
a strong chance of winning by 2 runs or more. Since there is nothing
on the boards like that I figured I would give this a shot.





Todays Plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU -123

$37.27

O/U Chase

COL O9.5 EV

$30.50

Parlay Matrix

TB +140/O8.5 -105	$5.00 – $18.43
TB +140/U8.5 -115	$5.00 - $17.43
LAA -1.5 +140	$9.00 - $12.60

[arpeggiomeister]

Everything hit yesterday. Today everything starts back on tier 1.
The Astros are favored again which is not how I like to start a
chase with an underdog for it is far more expensive then betting them
with plus odds, but I will stick by them. The Parlay Matrix will be
similar to yesterday because there is no teams on the board +180 or
better.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU -125

$12.50

O/U Chase

ARI U9 -120

$12.00

Parlay Matrix

NYM +138 O/7 EV	$5.00 - $18.80
NYM +138/U7 -120	$5.00 - $16.82
WAS -1.5 +140	$9.00 -$12.60

[arpeggiomeister]

Everything covered again yesterday. On a roll lately. Oakland
scored 13 so I am looking to fade the over but they are not playing
today. We will start a new chase with HOU.





I am working a 60 hour week this week and the spreads are usually
not available until after I have to leave so there will not be any
Parlay Matrix plays until Saturday. It is perfect my play covered
last night. Unfortunately real life gets in the way sometimes, but
if it were not for my job then I would not have the money to pay for
these little experiments. Necessary evil.





Today's Plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +180

$5.56

[arpeggiomeister]

HOU wins. I can not connect to BETDSI this morning so I will have no plays. I hope they get this shit straightened out. Guess that is another reason why the pros have multiple accounts

[arpeggiomeister]

I got the odds off from this website. I still can't access
Betdsi. Anyways, here are today's plays. Both are on 1rst tier.





Underdog Chase

HOU +160

$6.25

O/U chase

OAK U8 -120

$12.00

[redtagboys]

followed you for houston yesterday good pick!

[arpeggiomeister]

HOU loses so we are on to the second tier. Oakland Under wins.
Today's Plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU

$14.58

O/U Chase

LAA U/8 -115

$11.50

[arpeggiomeister]

thanks brother. This is a chase system though so I can't take credit for an individual play being brilliant. My theory behind chasing Houston is that even the worst team on the power rankings is going to win some games. When you chase the worst team you are usually getting plus odds which allows for a very deep chase system. I am estimating a bankroll of $3,000. If I can survive about 120 games without busting then I will make a 40% ROI for the season. When I combine this with what I am doing in the NFL and NBA it will make 100% ROI a year. My returns on individual bets may be tiny but 100% ROI a year can turn $2,000 into $128,000 in 6 years. Right now I am playing with play money. This is the final piece to the puzzle. When the NFL rolls around I will be playing for real.

[DocC]

Don't think you need to parlay the underdog moneyline with the over/under? If you use the arb calc on sbr, your profit percentage drops. For instance calculate using 3 options and put the two parlays and runline in and calculate with 2 options and just use the underdog moneyline and favorite runline. I think you get a better percentage with the latter.

[arpeggiomeister]

HOU loses, the under covers. It is interesting that since I start
using the contrarian theory on the over under bets I have gone 12 –
1 – 4. I do not expect this theory to continue hitting at 71% but
if it does there is no reason to use a chase system. I will revisit
that ratio once I have some real numbers under my belt and see if it
holds up.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +132

$38.51

O/U Chase

MIA U/7.5 -120

$12.00

[arpeggiomeister]

Don't think you need to parlay the underdog moneyline with the over/under? If you use the arb calc on sbr, your profit percentage drops. For instance calculate using 3 options and put the two parlays and runline in and calculate with 2 options and just use the underdog moneyline and favorite runline. I think you get a better percentage with the latter.

Thanks for the tip. That is why I do these experiments on here. I will check into it as soon as I can come up for air. I am working 60 hours this week and have had very little time for this stuff. Thanks brother.

[arpeggiomeister]

The under hits again. Today I wanted Cleveland but the O/U is not
on the boards yet at Betdsi and I do not have time to wait. I took
the under on the Rangers. I am looking to refine this theory a bit
more, especially since it has been performing so strongly. I am
thinking that I should possibly hold out for a team that scores 10 or
more runs in a game. Nobody scored that much but TEX scored 9 last
night so I am going with them.






HOU loses. They would be a perfect team to do a Parlay Matrix on.
They are +215 this morning. Unfortunately the spreads are not up
and I do not have time to wait, but if that game is not decided by a
single run in favor of SEA it wins. Since I do not have the numbers
it will be my unofficial bet.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +215

$46.20

O/U Chase

TEX U/8 EV

$10.00

[arpeggiomeister]

The Astros and TEX under both lost. We are starting to get deep
on the current chase with the Astros, hitting our 5^th tier
today. Despite it being deep the bet is still under $150. That is
impressive. However, even with plus odds this chase will start to
get really expensive if they do not cover within the next 2 or 3
games.





There will be no parlay matrix today as nothing fits my criteria.
I found one that I could do it on but it would be forcing a play.
Bad things happen when you do that. You can't lose money if you do
not risk it. I will try again tomorrow.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +118

$131.81

O/U Chase

TEX U/8.5 -110

$31.00

[arpeggiomeister]

HOU wins. TEX scores 12 runs, blasting the over. This brings our
under chase to the 3^rd tier. We haven't had a Parlay
Matrix for a week because I have been working sick overtime but I
have one for today.





It was mentioned that I might be better off just betting the
moneyline on the underdog and the runline on the favorite instead of
the parlays. I do not think this will work. The parlays pay back more then
3 times the amount wagered. This is what allows me to balance out
the bets so that each situation is profitable. I would love to
create a full out arbitrage but that would require lots of liquidity
and some inefficient lines from a bookie who is slow on the draw.

I
am human and do not claim to be a math genius. I can not see it
working by just betting the two. If I am mistaken and it does work
better please demonstrate it and show the math. Do not be rude or
condescending. I made these threads so we can experiment, learn, and
discover, not to be insulted. If you have knowledge that can help
others share it. That is the spirit of this and all of my threads.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +137

$7.30

O/U Chase

TEX U/8.5 -120

$85.20

Parlay Matrix

MIN +153 O/7 -120	$4.75 – $17.28
MIN +153 U/7 EV	$4.25 – $17.26
SFO -1.5 +130	$9 – $11.70

[sunnyCA]

hey man I have been reading your stuff and its good info. jus somethin to share with u. I follow the series prices for MLB and I think some games would be very revealing for you if u also look at the series price to refer to. for instance that last HOU vs LAA series was -275 for LAA (which is as big as the favs get for MLB series bets) +220 or somethin like that for HOU. SO after the Angels lost the first game, even though i like your system, the odds still show that they were gonna drop the series and I think the next game was like -180 for LAA with skaggs pitching +160 for HOU and they lost. obvious every big favorite doesnt always work like that but in some instances it can really help. good luck man.

[DocC]

So for the parlay matrix, i suggest using the arb calc listed under the sbr tools to balance the bets out. I see that your total bet is $18 so you would bet 4.57 at +364, 4.19 at +406 and 9.22 at +130 all of which will yield a total profit of 3.22 or about 17.93%. Of course, you lose if the favorite wins by a single run. If you wanna stick with the parlaying, i suggest you use this tool as it will allow for optimal bet sizing for balancing purposes.

Now my suggestion was to get rid of the parlaying altogether and just balance bets on the moneyline of the underdog and the runline of favorite.

Using the arb calc for the odds +153 and +130 you should bet 8.57 on the first and 9.43 on the second leg giving you a profit either way of 3.69 or 20.4762%, giving 2+% profit over the parlay matrix method.

[DocC]

Now i do see that with your balancing that if Minnesota wins you are winning more than the profit i listed above but thats because you are sacrificing profit from the SF runline cover you know? The bets listed above are the optimal ones for securing the same profit no matter the outcome.
Arb calc man its too powerful.

[arpeggiomeister]

HOU and the parlay matrix win. TEX under loses. I had to do a
double take as they scored 12 runs again. We will continue to chase
the under. This chase is starting to get some depth to it as we are
on our 4^th tier. Unlike the underdog chase that usually
has plus odds the over under chase can not afford to go nearly as
deep. I estimate two more tiers before I bust. I am going to stick
to my guns and see what happens. I believe it will pull through, but
that is what these experiments are all about... ...to find that out
in a live environment without getting hurt in the process.





Today's Plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +140

$7.14

O/U Chase

TEX U/9 -110

$182.82

Parlay Matrix

NYY +150/O7 -115	$4.75 - $17.48
NYY +150/U7 -105	$4.50 - $17.46
STL -1.5 +140	$8.75 - $12.25

[arpeggiomeister]

So for the parlay matrix, i suggest using the arb calc listed under the sbr tools to balance the bets out. I see that your total bet is $18 so you would bet 4.57 at +364, 4.19 at +406 and 9.22 at +130 all of which will yield a total profit of 3.22 or about 17.93%. Of course, you lose if the favorite wins by a single run. If you wanna stick with the parlaying, i suggest you use this tool as it will allow for optimal bet sizing for balancing purposes.

Now my suggestion was to get rid of the parlaying altogether and just balance bets on the moneyline of the underdog and the runline of favorite.

Using the arb calc for the odds +153 and +130 you should bet 8.57 on the first and 9.43 on the second leg giving you a profit either way of 3.69 or 20.4762%, giving 2+% profit over the parlay matrix method.

I believe I am following you. I will have to check over the numbers and see if they balance out when the run line is negative. 2% may not sound like much for a single game but in the grand scheme of things it is huge!!! Once compound interest takes hold that extra 2% will make a big difference. I will have to see whether I use it to increase my ROI or add a little safety to the chase system with an extra tier. Either way it is a significant improvement. Thanks for your input brother.

[arpeggiomeister]

Adapting the latest bet with Doc C's arbitrage approach NYY ML $9.80 and STL -1.5 +140 $10.21. I will have to come up with a name for this because it is not a true arbitrage I plan to adapt this approach. This is a significant improvement and should be a little easier to figure out then the Parlay Matrix approach.

[arpeggiomeister]

hey man I have been reading your stuff and its good info. jus somethin to share with u. I follow the series prices for MLB and I think some games would be very revealing for you if u also look at the series price to refer to. for instance that last HOU vs LAA series was -275 for LAA (which is as big as the favs get for MLB series bets) +220 or somethin like that for HOU. SO after the Angels lost the first game, even though i like your system, the odds still show that they were gonna drop the series and I think the next game was like -180 for LAA with skaggs pitching +160 for HOU and they lost. obvious every big favorite doesnt always work like that but in some instances it can really help. good luck man.

My underdog approach does not try to predict when HOU will cover. I am simply guessing that they will win some games and that they will occur often enough as to not bust my bankroll. Since they have plus odds most of the time my chase system can go very deep. I have only needed 5 tiers so far and am currently up $390 against a $3,000 hypothetical bankroll. If I am understanding you correctly, what you are talking about doing is very similar to my 10 point teaser approach in the NFL. I am definitely intrigued because my 10 point teasers are deadly accurate. I rarely need more then 3 tiers. So I believe what you are saying is you should watch for the underdog to win a game in a series and then play the favorite in the next game in that series. That would require an additional experiment. My plate is kind of full right now but if you want to conduct the experiment you are more then welcome to on this thread. That is what my threads are all about, trying new ideas and seeing the results. You have the STL -190 over the NYY, KC -200 over HOU, and SFO -200 over the CHI Cubs. We will have to keep our eye on those series and see if one comes up. Not sure if that was what you were suggesting, but it is a very intriguing idea.

[DocC]

Good stuff man, I've been interested in this runline/moneyline approach for sometime now, guess we'll just have to see how a chase system applied to this works out.

Also the arb thing will balance out as long as the positive odds are greater than the negative odds...for instance
+140 and -110 will work out but its not too much of an issue as the -1.5 runline has positive odds usually it seems like. Anyways glad I could help man, keep it up

[arpeggiomeister]

HOU is on a bit of a roll lately. The under bet pushes. I have a decision to make. Toronto scored 10 runs and I am thinking about chasing them. A push means public expectation has been met. Not sure if there is much pull to the under now for Tex as the return was gradual. The Parlay Matrix hit. Will change officially change to the arbitrage strategy recommended by DocC. I think I will call it a "semi-arbitrage" since it is not a guaranteed win but almost every angle is covered. We have a new strategy to consider from SunnyCA as well. Both the Yankees and HOU are heavy underdogs in their series. We should expect the favorites to bounce back. This makes STL and KC good bets for tomorrow. I would probably lean towards KC beating HOU for HOU is still at the bottom of the power rankings.

[arpeggiomeister]

I ended up going with Toronto instead of the Rangers on the under
as I explained in my last post. HOU covers as well as the parlay
matrix which we are now using an arbitrage strategy in place of.





Today's Plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +116

$8.62

O/U Chase

TOR U/8.5 +105

$165.23

Semi-arbitrage Chase

CIN +155	$9.40 - $4.46
SFO -1.5 +135	$10.42 - $4.46

I also wanted to track KC -123 and STL -145 to see what happens.
A new chase system could emerge from this but I do not want to commit
to tracking it for the season just yet. Just observing for now to
see how it performs. This chase would be limited to a series which I
find a little scary because chase systems need to be really deep to
survive in baseball due to the large number of games. The
semi-arbitrage can survive with 3 tiers because the odds of that bet
winning are extremely high but this is different. I think it could
work. We will just have to watch and see how it performs.

[sunnyCA]

also SF lost yest and is a big fav, as well as washington. we'll see how those 4 teams do. KC, stL, SF and Wash

[DocC]

I had a question as to how you would structure the chase for the semi arb plays given that you are betting a lot to win a little...are you trying to grandmartingale here too?

[arpeggiomeister]

piece of shit is not allowing me to edit. Will repost momentarily

[arpeggiomeister]

HOU is on a roll. The arb covers. Should have stuck it out with
the Rangers as the under covered on that but I went with TOR
instead... ...ouch!!! We will stick it out with TOR. This chase is
starting to get expensive. We are on our 5^th tier with
one push. I did add an extra $10 after the push to keep the Grand
Martingale going. The “riding the series favorite” was a mixed
bag. I already mentioned that HOU won. NYY lost. We will keep an
eye on HOU. If they lose today I would say the idea is worth looking
into further.





Correcting a mistake I made yesterday on the semi-arbitrage, next
to the wager amount I put what the profit would be, not what I would
actually win. Today I put that amount in parentheses.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +135

$7.41

Over Under Chse

TOR U/9 -105

$369.00

Semi-arbitrage

CIN +170	$8.75
LAD -1.5 +110	$11.25 ($3.63)

There that's better

[arpeggiomeister]

I had a question as to how you would structure the chase for the semi arb plays given that you are betting a lot to win a little...are you trying to grandmartingale here too?

To keep matters simple I was multiplying by 10 each time. There are 3 tiers. I risk $20, $200, $2,000. The math is not refined so if you win on the second tier you are recovering almost double what you lost. If I were to sit down and figure the math on it I could reduce the bankroll size considerably which I really should do. Currently if I played 100 of these and won at the first level I would come out with an 18% ROI for the season. I balance things out properly the total bankroll can be reduced which will raise that ROI. The only problem I see is that not every bet is hitting over 20%. Today's bet is only 18%. The math is going to be a little fuzzy no matter what I do. I need to leave some room for flexibility.