Pendulum Cycle Theory: MLB chase experiment

[arpeggiomeister]

Tier one:

$20 x 0.18 = $3.60





Tier two:

($3.60 x 2) + $20 = $27.20 This is the amount we need to win on
the second tier





$27.20 / 0.18 = $151.11





Tier three:





($3.60 x 3) + ($20 + $151.11) = $184.07





$184.07 / 0.18 = $1,022.61





Bankroll:





$20 + $151.11 + $1,022.61 = $1,193.72





This definitely increases the ROI. My original target was 40%. If
I bet 133 games I could hit that target. I want to be out before the
NFL week one begins and I do not play a game if the matchup is not
lopsided enough so not sure if this feasible but definitely a step in
the right direction.






DocC strikes again.

[arpeggiomeister]

Most of these semi-arb bets are coming in over 4 dollars so it would take around 115 bets. I think this makes this a viable strategy. I go through the parlay matrix bets and re-adjust them to fit the new strategy. I am going to continue this through the rest of the season until the NFL starts. I want to be out and focused on the NFL. I do not play preseason so should be September. I'll have to check the schedule.

[arpeggiomeister]

HOU wins again. The under finally covers and the semi-arbitrage
hits as well. The idea of checking who will win the series and then
playing the favorite after a loss is off to a rocky start. We do not
have nearly enough evidence to write it off but my plate is full with
what I have so I am not going to track it. At least not for now.





There is no semi-arbitrage today because nothing fits the
criteria. I think my math was a little off because I thought 18% was
on the low end but so far it appears to be on the upper end. It is a
tedious process to go back through and convert the parlay matrix
games into a semi-arbitrage but I am ranging between 15% and 18%. I
know I have seen some go over 20% so I can not draw any conclusions
until I have made my way through all of my data. In order to hit the
target of 40% I think I may have to compound the profits along the
way. With over 100 games I think that should do the trick.





Today's plays:





Underdog chase

HOU +115

$8.69

O/U chase

ARI U/9 -120

$12.00

[arpeggiomeister]

HOU continues to roll. If they keep this up they will not be on
the bottom of the power rankings much longer. I checked in today and
they are still on the bottom so we will roll with them again. The
under hits. Both the underdog chase and the over under chase have
been performing very well. I got a little nervous with the over
under a couple days back but we are right back on track.





There will be no over/under today. I am waiting for a team to
score over 10 runs and then fade them to the under. No such
candidate today.





We do have a semi-arbitrage today. It will pull in over 19% ROI.
I knew I was not imagining things. Lol





Today's Plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU -110

$11.00

Semi-Arbitrage

CUBS +145	$9.79
MIL -1.5 +135	$10.21 ($3.99)

[arpeggiomeister]

Hou continues streaking. They are -130 today which shows me the
tide is turning. My gut tells me to stay away from this game but the
are still on the bottom of the power rankings so in order to stay
consistent I will play them. The semi-arbitrage covered.






MIL scored 11 yesterday so we are going to play the under on them
today. There are a few opportunities for a semi-arbitrage. The
Yankees have the steepest odds which is normally what I look for, but
STL/SFO has the highest return so we are going with them.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU -130

$13.00

O/U Chase

MIL U/7.5 -120

$12.00

Semi-Arbitrage

SFO +150	$9.69
STL -1.5 +135	$10.31 ($4.23)

[arpeggiomeister]

The semi-arbitrage covers and the other bets lose. Guess my gut
was right about Houston.






Today's plays





Underdog Chase

HOU -101

$23.23

O/U Chase

TOR U/9 -105

$23.10

Semi-Arbitrage

PIT +155	$9.37
LAD -1.5 +125	$10.62 ($3.90)

[arpeggiomeister]

The Astros are still at the bottom of the power rankings despite a
7 game win streak. I thought sure the Diamondbacks or Cubs would
slip into that spot.





HOU has no game today and no team scored double digit runs so the
only bet today will be the semi-arbitrage.





Semi-Arbitrage

CWS +170	$8.86
LAD -1.5 +115	$11.13 ($3.94)

[arpeggiomeister]

I think it is interesting to note that the last 14 bets with the semi-arbitrage have all covered. It takes roughly 5 to 6 bets to double if you use a single tier. That is way too dangerous, but it shows that the theory is working. I may be able to decrease the bankroll required for this by using a different kind of chase system like a D' Alembert.

[arpeggiomeister]

The semi-arbitrage covers.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +115

$57.59

O/U Chase

NYM U/8 +115

$11.50

Semi-Arbitrage

MIN +140	$10.00
MIL -1.5 +140	$10.00 ($4.00)

[arpeggiomeister]

Everything won yesterday. The Diamondbacks have finally taken
over the bottom of the power rankings so we have a new underdog to
chase. There will be no under play today as no team scored more then
10 runs yesterday.





Underdog Chase

ARI +120

$8.33

Semi-Arbitrage

PHI +167	$9.03
WAS -1.5 +120	$10.96 ($4.12)

[arpeggiomeister]

ARI wins in major fashion. Holy cow!!! Semi-Arbitrage covers
again.





Today's bets:





Underdog Chase

ARI +118

$8.47

O/U chase

ARI/U10.5 -110

$11.00

Semi-Arbitrage

TOR +148	$9.51
DET -1.5 +125	$10.48 ($3.59)

[posey]

Do you have any stats regarding your track record at the moment?

[arpeggiomeister]

Underdogs are on fire lately!!! ARI covers again. The
Semi-Arbitrage covers. The Over/Under bet loses so we are on tier
two with that.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

ARI +104

$9.62

O/U Chase

ARI/U8 -110

$23.10

Semi-Arbitrage

NYM +125	$9.28
SFO -1.5 +160	$10.72 ($4.12)

[arpeggiomeister]

Do you have any stats regarding your track record at the moment?

I have been keeping track on charts. I plan on posting the entire
body of work at the end of the experiment. I will go over my numbers
and give you an update. Please keep in mind that these are chase
systems. It is not the percentage of wins vs losses that determine
success, but rather the size of the losing streaks. So far those
losing streaks have been very manageable, aka the chase systems are
working.





The Underdog Chase: to date the largest losing
streak encountered began on 4/12 and ended on 4/18. There were 3
days during that period where I did not place a bet. That was a 5
game streak. The amount of money lost during that streak was
$132.94. This was recovered on a bet on the Cubs +130 on 4/19 for a
bet of $140.72. This is a Grand Martingale which means I win $10 for
every bet placed unless I bust. A total of 49 bets have been placed
in this chase and ARI just covered so this experiment is currently up
$490. I am paper trading this but I estimated using a $3,000
bankroll. I have barely even dented it with this chase.





The Over/Under Chase:
The biggest losing streak so far for this chase has been 4 games
with one push in that streak startin on 5/23. The total cost was
$291.43 and was recovered on 5/28 with a bet of $369.00 on TOR under
9 -105. This is also a Grand Martingale. There has been 45 bets
placed in this chase with the last bet losing. $430 - $11 = $419.
That is where this chase is currently at.





The Parlay Matrix/ Semi-Arbitrage:
This changed part way through the experiment because DocC suggested
a more efficient way of accomplishing things. There has been 40 bets
placed. There has been no losing streaks greater then 1 yet which I
find shocking. This strategy has been on fire lately. I have won
the last 18 in a row. Given the success rate of this strategy I am
thinking that a Grand Martingale is not the way to go. We are
risking a lot to win a little. I think I can just double down my
bets and recover the loss in a 3 game win streak. This is closer to
a D'Alembert chase strategy where you do not try to recover your loss
in one shot. This approach would reduce the size of the bankroll
needed which would in turn increase the ROI. My record currently
stands at 34-6.

[arpeggiomeister]

My profit numbers are skewed because I need to go back and convert all of the Parlay Matrix plays into Semi-Arbitrages but I am at $353.55. If you used a $220 bankroll for a 2 tier system this is a 60% ROI so far. Despite the success so far that is a little too dangerous for my taste as one streak of 2 losses would wipe you out. A 3 tier Grand Martingale will run you in the neighborhood of $1,800. It is hard to peg down because the percentages change from one bet to the next. That is just a rough estimate. If I were to implement the D'Alembert I suggested then it would reduce the bankroll to $1,000 or less. This really looks like the way to go with this strategy.

[arpeggiomeister]

ARI loses. The under covers as did the semi-arbitrage.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

ARI -110

$32.58

O/U Chase

PIT/U7.5 -105

$10.50

Semi-Arbitrage

SEA +135	$10.00
TB -1.5 +135	$10.00 ($3.50)

[posey]

Thank you for your detailed answer and BOL.

[arpeggiomeister]

PIT under loses. ARI and the semi-arbitrage cover. The numbers
are not up yet for the over under on PIT today and I have to leave.
I will check in later if I can and try to update but it will be a no
play if I can't make it back in time.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

ARI -105

$10.50

Semi-Arbitrage

CSW +135	$10.00
LAA -1.5 +135	$10 ($3.50)

[arpeggiomeister]

Thank you for your detailed answer and BOL.

Your very welcome. Thanks for following this little experiment.

[arpeggiomeister]

ARI covers. We have a new underdog at the bottom of the power
rankings: PHI. They are not playing today but will start a new chase
with them when they do play.






I was not able to get back in time to place the over/under bet but
had I been able to PIT went under easily. HOU scored 14 runs so we
will continue the chase with an under on them. We are currently on
the second tier of the chase.





The Semi-Arbitrage streak continues. I have hit 21 in a row
without a loss.





Today's Plays





O/U Chase

HOU U/9 -125

$38.13

Semi-Arbitrage

CUBS +135	$10.21
PIT -1.5 +145	$9.79 ($3.99)

[igrok]

Hi, first of all thank you for the very interesting experiment.
I read through your posts, but still for me it is not clear what is your criteria to select teams for the "semi-arbitrage"?
GL today!

[arpeggiomeister]

Both bets cover. Semi-Arbitrage streak is now at 22. Don't blink
because today's bet is almost identical to yesterday's. I placed it
and they changed the numbers on me after I placed it which pissed me
off. It was +135 on both sides but the CUBS went to +145 right after
I put in the bet for PIT. Now the only way to balance it is to raise
bets on both sides so I will just leave it unbalanced for my actual
bet but will balance it out for this experiment.






We finally have a full slate today. Seems like it has been a
while since I have been able to get all 3 in on the same day.





Today's bets:





Underdog Chase

PHI -102

$10.02

O/U Chase

CLE U8 -120

$12.00

Semi-Arbitrage

CUBS +145	$9.79
PIT +135	$10.21 ($3.99)

[arpeggiomeister]

Hi, first of all thank you for the very interesting experiment.
I read through your posts, but still for me it is not clear what is your criteria to select teams for the "semi-arbitrage"?
GL today!

There are essentially two requirements. First I want a team to be heavily favored in the game. I like to see the favored team at least -160 in the money line if not more. The second requirement is the balance. I want a decent return. You will need the arbitrage calculator for this. I like to get as close to 20% ROI as I can. Anything under 17% ROI I tend to shy away from. Some days you will see multiple teams that fit these criteria. I will almost always take the one with the highest ROI. It is pretty straight forward. There will be days however where there are no teams favored by -160 or better. You want to stay away when this happens. If the teams are too evenly matched the likelihood that the game will result in a 1 run differential increases. Hope that helps.

[bankroll27]

this is awesome!

[posey]

I hope I did everything correctly and maybe you are interested in it.
I tried to get some numbers for your under chase. I used the killersports.com query system. I didn't look up the numbers for pushes for simpleness sake. Killersports tracks numbers from 2004 until 2014.

I used the following criterias:
- a team with a sub .500 W-L record had more than 9 runs in one game
- we don't chase playoff games and we don't play games in April because April is the start of the season and you know...everything can happen in April

1st game over-under:
- 535-558-41
2nd game over-under (meaning we didn't hit the under in the first one):
- 258-253-21
3rd game over-under (meaning we didn't hit the under in the first game and the second game):
- 121-132-7
4th game over-under (first, second and third game didn't hit the under):
- 75-44-2
5th game over-under (first, second, third and fourth game didn't hit the under):
- 33-41-1
6th game over-under (first, second, third, fourth and fifth game didn't hit the under):
- 12-18-3
7th game over-under (first, second... and sixth game didn't hit the under):
- 4-8-0
8th game over-under (first, second... and seventh game didn't hit the under):
- 1-3-0
9th game over-under (first, second, ... and eigth game didn't hit the under):
- 1-0-0
10th game over-under (first, second, ... and ninth game didn't hit the under):
- 1-0-0
11th game over-under (first, ... and tenth game didn't hit the under):
- 1-0-0
12th game over-under:
- 1-0-0
13th game over-under:
- 0-1-0

So there was only one team which would have needed a 13 game chase (this was the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2013). Only 6% of the chases would need more than 5 chases. Maybe one could make the chases even better with adding some more criterias, but I didn't test it. Some thoughts?

[igrok]

Thank you for your answer, now it is clear. GL today!

[arpeggiomeister]

The under bet loses so we go to tier 2 today. The underdog and
semi-arbitrage cover.





Have some interesting things going on today. PHI is -132. They
are still sitting at the bottom of the power rankings but I think
that is a bit too expensive to be starting an underdog chase. The
whole idea behind this is that you will get plus odds that will allow
you to go very deep in a chase system. I went with the next team up
which is TB.

The semi-arbitrage is not an ideal ROI at just of
15%, but it is a heavy mismatch as the Rangers money line is -220. I
was able to find another game that balances a little better but the
teams are too evenly matched making the bet more dangerous in my
opinion.






The under bet failed to cover and I should chase the Indians until
it does but the explosive game between ATL and COL is just too
tempting. We are only on the second tier so I opted to chase ATL.





Today's Plays:





Underdog Chase

TB +115

$8.70

O/U Chase

ATL U/10 -110

$35.20

Semi-Arbitrage

MIA +185	$8.13
TEX -1.5 -105	$11.87 ($3.17)

[arpeggiomeister]

I hope I did everything correctly and maybe you are interested in it.
I tried to get some numbers for your under chase. I used the killersports.com query system. I didn't look up the numbers for pushes for simpleness sake. Killersports tracks numbers from 2004 until 2014.

I used the following criterias:
- a team with a sub .500 W-L record had more than 9 runs in one game
- we don't chase playoff games and we don't play games in April because April is the start of the season and you know...everything can happen in April

1st game over-under:
- 535-558-41
2nd game over-under (meaning we didn't hit the under in the first one):
- 258-253-21
3rd game over-under (meaning we didn't hit the under in the first game and the second game):
- 121-132-7
4th game over-under (first, second and third game didn't hit the under):
- 75-44-2
5th game over-under (first, second, third and fourth game didn't hit the under):
- 33-41-1
6th game over-under (first, second, third, fourth and fifth game didn't hit the under):
- 12-18-3
7th game over-under (first, second... and sixth game didn't hit the under):
- 4-8-0
8th game over-under (first, second... and seventh game didn't hit the under):
- 1-3-0
9th game over-under (first, second, ... and eigth game didn't hit the under):
- 1-0-0
10th game over-under (first, second, ... and ninth game didn't hit the under):
- 1-0-0
11th game over-under (first, ... and tenth game didn't hit the under):
- 1-0-0
12th game over-under:
- 1-0-0
13th game over-under:
- 0-1-0

So there was only one team which would have needed a 13 game chase (this was the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2013). Only 6% of the chases would need more than 5 chases. Maybe one could make the chases even better with adding some more criterias, but I didn't test it. Some thoughts?

Very interesting results. This tells me that a 5 tier system
would maximize ROI. I have calculated this for $10 units. By this I
mean you win $10

1. 12
2. 38.40
3. 96.48
4. 224.26
5. 505.36

$876.50





At $10 per game you would need to win 88 bets to double this
bankroll. As long as the last chase resolves you will make $880. You may have to go a little longer to finish out the last chase. Considering there is 162 games in the regular season this
is feasible. I would not push beyond that 100%. You want to exit
while leaving something on the table. The risk with a chase system
is total. One loss and you are back to square one.





This is strictly a Grand Martingale. There are other systems we
could use on this. The bottom line is you have demonstrated pretty
solid evidence that this will make money.

[arpeggiomeister]

The ideal criteria for filtering this and making more accurate would be to know where the public's money is going. The capitulation between fear and greed is more telling then any other stat there is. Why? because they have generally already accounted for the other stats. The entire premise of point spreads and odds operates on the public over-reacting to the information they receive. That is how the bookies keep balance. They are not geniuses, the public does all the work for them. That is why I maintain that chase systems are the ideal tool to exploit this phenomenon. Every trend you discover and attempt to exploit through traditional handi-capping methods will eventually become null and void. Once the public catches wind of it they will jump on the bandwagon, pushing the odds in the other direction. Creating a successful chase system simply boils down to understanding the cycles the public goes through and timing them. Most chase systems fail because they jump around from team to team with absolutely no rhyme or reason. The results of one game are connected to the results of the next. The public will push the point spreads or odds until they bust. This is a bubble phenomenon. Meanwhile the teams that are playing are also aware of what is going on. You can not tell me the Jaguars were not insulted when they were 26 point underdogs to the Broncos. They didn't win but they played hard and covered the spread. These two psychological factors work in opposite directions creating the perfect storm. By following the psychology behind the numbers a chase system can be developed to make money from it. That is the entire premise of "The Pendulum Cycle Theory".

[posey]

1. You're welcome, glad it helped.

2. I somehow agree to post #134. Do you know any sites where one could look up what the public is doing?

[arpeggiomeister]

I do not at this time but I am certain they are out there. The way I do it in the NFL is to simply gauge how far out of whack the point spread was in the previous game. Going back to the 2007 Patriots for example. If the Patriots beat the spread by more then 30 points (Bills week 11)you can expect the public to push the spread in the next game even bigger, meaning you should lean on the underdogs. They faced the Eagles as -24 point favorites in the next game barely won by 3 points. This works in reciprocal when the underdog wins. This is why I have been watching for teams to who score 10 runs or more. I am expecting the same effect. It is deadly accurate in both the NFL and NBA. I would not do it as a straight handicap because even those results even out to 50/50, but in a chase system the results are amazing.

[arpeggiomeister]

The Underdog and Semi-Arbitrage win, the Over/Under pushes. I
should have stuck with Cleveland as they went under. Oh well, the
grass is always greener on the other side. I am sticking with
Atlanta to day. I added another $10 to keep the Grand Martingale
going even though we pushed.





The Semi-Arbitrage is taking a small chance today. I prefer the
favorites to be -160 or better but the best I could do today was -153
on Boston. It balanced very well giving an ROI of over 20% so I
decided to take a shot and hope for the best. My current streak for
this strategy now stands at 24 bets in a row. Hope I can keep it
going.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

PHI -113

$11.40

O/U Chase

ATL U/10 -120

$50.40

Semi-Arbitrage

CLE +138	$10.00
BOS -1.5 +145	$9.71 ($4.09)

[arpeggiomeister]

The Semi-Arbitrage and Underdog cover. The over under loses so we
are onto tier 3.5 (we had a push and increased the amount to keep the
grand martingale going).





The Semi-Arbitrage streak is now up to 25 in a row. I have had
real money on this experiment, albeit not that much. I had a $200
bankroll and it is currently $277. If I win tonight I will have my
target 40% ROI. This coupled with 20% in the NFL and 22% in the NBA
will compound out to be 100% ROI.

• 200 x 1.4 = $280
  
• 280 x 1.2 = $336
  
• 336 x 1.22 = $409.92

My NFL back tests have shown no failures in the past 10 years.
The NBA had one failure in 2007. It is an extremely high risk
strategy but all of the pieces are in place for me to make 100% a
year. When the NFL comes around I will probably back this with
around $2,000. If I can keep that pace for 6 years it will turn into
$128,000.





Early on I thought the Semi-Arbitrage would fail because the chase
system is so shallow but so far it appears to be a very strong
strategy. I think I would adjust it so that I am doing more of a
D'Alembert strategy. If I lose $20 on my first tier I would raise my
bets to $40. It would take me 3 to 4 bets to recover what I had
lost. Once I recover that money I return to $20 bets. That will
give the strategy much more depth.





The underdog chase and over/under have barely dented their
respective bankrolls. I need to resolve the current chase on the
over/under but I am very pleased with the results so far. I can
reduce the size of the bankroll which would increase the ROI. That
would be 3 experiments that have all hit 40% ROI. It is a little to
early to declare victory, but I can taste it.





Today's Plays:





Underdog Chase

PHI -125

$12.50

O/U Chase

ATL U7.5 -120

$122.88

Semi-Arbitrage

MIN +143	$9.84
DET -1.5 +135	$10.17 ($3.89)

[arpeggiomeister]

Earlier this season I blew up $200 by jumping around from strategy to strategy. I was playing the over/unders and was getting pretty deep. I did a parlay matrix to try and bring things back and blew up the account. I suffered the same fate in the NFL last year. I tried a 10 point teaser strategy. 3 different touting services, a matrix strategy, and a 15 point teaser strategy. When you do that it randomizes the results. Chase systems are proven to fail against games of random chance. If I had stuck it out with one strategy I would have been fine. I reloaded just before I switched from the Parlay Matrix to the Semi-Arbitrage and have not lost a bet yet. Had I stuck witht he Semi-Arbitrage from the beginning I would not have blown up the first account. Had I stuck with the over/unders I would not have blown it up. This is a learning experience and I have been bit twice for doing the same thing. If you guys decide to try these strategies do not jump from one to the other midstream. Make sure your chase is resolved first and then switch, but do not abandon a chase because it is getting scary. The results are disastrous.

[arpeggiomeister]

The under bet and Semi-Arbitrage cover. The underdog loses
bringing to our second tier today. I hit my target of 40% with the
semi-arbitrage. In my opinion the experiment is already a success.
I am going to continue to see how far I can push it. I am going to
start compounding my profits. I am going to see if I can recover the
$200 I lost earlier this season. My ideas have solidified. This
could just be an amazing run of luck but I think it is more then
that. The only way to find out is to keep plugging. If it is just
luck then it will become apparent soon enough.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

PHI -115

$37.38

O/U Chase

BOS U/9 +105

$9.52

Semi-Arbitrage

NYY +147	$14.63
OAK -1.5 +135	$15.38