System idea for baseball

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  • keel44
    SBR MVP
    • 08-01-09
    • 3363

    #1
    System idea for baseball
    This idea is a parlay-press with a progression.

    The parlays I like to do are ones that pay at least 3-1. Basically I use a 2 team parlay with one of the legs being +odds, but any bets that pay at least 3-1 is what I am looking for. You can use what ever parameters you like.

    Consider the following:

    A $10 parlay wins $30. We recoup the $10. Now wager $30 on another parlay. This will pay out $90. We full press this time and wager $120 to win $360. Add the $120 with the $360 and we have a pure profit of $480. (remember my parlays will pay at least 3-1 ). That is 3 parlay wins in a row.

    When we recoup the initial investment of $10 after our 1st win, that means the next 2 parlay attempts would not cost us anything. So you must lose the first attempt to be down $10. You can lose 38 1st attempts and still profit no less than $100. (usually more)

    Looking at this further, you will notice that using parlays that pay 3-1, you profit 48 times your initial investment. So you take the amount you want to profit for and divide by 48. When you lose your 1st attempt, you simply add the loss to your profit target and divide by 48 again.

    For example, let's say you want to profit $100. Divide $100 by 48. You get $2.08. This is the amount you start your wagering process at. When you lose your 1st attempt, you add $2.08 to $100 and get 102.08 and divide again by 48. You now start the process at $2.12.

    You can see that you will have many many many attempts to win 3 (3-1) parlays in a row. I have not done the math on this, but it would be a lot.

    You don't have to wait for one attempt to be over to start another. Just maybe add up the losses a few at a time if you want. The real kicker here is you only lose money on that 1st attempt only. You can play around with all sorts of parameters. I will try my parameters and post right here.
  • ItsMeMrMattE
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-30-10
    • 5294

    #2
    interesting. i like how math based you are. how high will you full press? using your method what percentage do you have to hit out of lets say 100 bets to make profit? will be watching. parlays are my weakness so ive been waiting for someone to come on here and start a parlay only thread and maybe teach me a thing or two. GL. i hope the thread lasts long and the profits grow wide.
    Comment
    • tg09
      SBR High Roller
      • 05-26-12
      • 208

      #3
      Interesting idea. I'll definitely keep an eye on this. BOL to you.
      Comment
      • keel44
        SBR MVP
        • 08-01-09
        • 3363

        #4
        Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE
        interesting. i like how math based you are. how high will you full press? using your method what percentage do you have to hit out of lets say 100 bets to make profit? will be watching. parlays are my weakness so ive been waiting for someone to come on here and start a parlay only thread and maybe teach me a thing or two. GL. i hope the thread lasts long and the profits grow wide.
        I will be going for 3 parlay wins in a row. There are a lot of options available. I personally like going for (3) -- 3 to 1 parlays. At the very least 3 to 1. You can customize the presses and progressions to fit what you think you can do.

        The most important part to what I'm doing is winning that 1st attempt of the three. You don't need to hit a high percentage of individual bets. I can't say exactly. This is a pure money management strategy. I am leaning on that to twist out profits.
        Comment
        • keel44
          SBR MVP
          • 08-01-09
          • 3363

          #5
          My starting bankroll is $1200. I will be trying to win $200 profit. My bets will start at $4.17. I will periodically add in the losses and recalculate to raise my stakes accordingly.


          ATTEMPT #1: Red Sox -1.5 with White Sox $4.17 to win $13.53
          ATTEMPT #2: Phillies with Cardinals -1.5 $4.17 to win $12.72
          ATTEMPT #3: Red Sox -1.5 with Yankees -1.5 $4.17 to win $14.54
          ATTEMPT #4: Astros -1.5 $4.17 to win $12.51
          ATTEMPT #5: Cubs with Mets Under 6.5 $4.17 to win $12.63

          These attempts no longer count....see below for the real ones that will count
          Last edited by keel44; 06-07-13, 11:32 PM. Reason: No actioned games
          Comment
          • Avala7ch3
            SBR Sharp
            • 06-04-12
            • 257

            #6
            Comment
            • keel44
              SBR MVP
              • 08-01-09
              • 3363

              #7
              Originally posted by keel44
              My starting bankroll is $1200. I will be trying to win $200 profit. My bets will start at $4.17. I will periodically add in the losses and recalculate to raise my stakes accordingly.


              ATTEMPT #1: Red Sox -1.5 with White Sox $4.17 to win $13.53
              ATTEMPT #2: Phillies with Cardinals -1.5 $4.17 to win $12.72
              ATTEMPT #3: Red Sox -1.5 with Yankees -1.5 $4.17 to win $14.54
              ATTEMPT #4: Astros -1.5 $4.17 to win $12.51
              ATTEMPT #5: Cubs with Mets Under 6.5 $4.17 to win $12.63

              No action for attempts 1, 3, and 5. Despite what happens to the other leg of the parlay, I will not count these and pick some other games.
              Comment
              • keel44
                SBR MVP
                • 08-01-09
                • 3363

                #8
                ATTEMPT #1: Yankees -1.5 with Padres $4.17 to win $14.25
                ATTEMPT #2: Phillies with Cardinals -1.5 $4.17 to win $12.72
                ATTEMPT #3: Dodgers -1.5 with Tigers $4.17 to win $13.42
                ATTEMPT #4: Astros -1.5 $4.17 to win $12.51
                Comment
                • Emancipator
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 04-12-13
                  • 788

                  #9
                  Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE
                  interesting. i like how math based you are. how high will you full press? using your method what percentage do you have to hit out of lets say 100 bets to make profit? will be watching. parlays are my weakness so ive been waiting for someone to come on here and start a parlay only thread and maybe teach me a thing or two. GL. i hope the thread lasts long and the profits grow wide.
                  He would need to hit 1/3 of these. I got to say I like this, you could make bank if your good at hitting, RL and big underdogs.
                  Comment
                  • ItsMeMrMattE
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 08-30-10
                    • 5294

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Emancipator

                    He would need to hit 1/3 of these. I got to say I like this, you could make bank if your good at hitting, RL and big underdogs.
                    not necessarily. it would depend on how many 1st attempts he hit as compared to how many full press ones he hit. i dont think its possible to figure out what percent rate keeps you in the profit based on his criteria. idk tho im not a big math guy.
                    Comment
                    • Emancipator
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 04-12-13
                      • 788

                      #11
                      Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE
                      not necessarily. it would depend on how many 1st attempts he hit as compared to how many full press ones he hit. i dont think its possible to figure out what percent rate keeps you in the profit based on his criteria. idk tho im not a big math guy.
                      Right, I was just talking about your 1st attempts. But if you can get a rough percentage of how many plays you hit lets say you hit ... 10%. So in theory you should hit your play by your 10th attempt, right?
                      Comment
                      • keel44
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-01-09
                        • 3363

                        #12
                        ATTEMPT #1: Yankees -1.5 with Padres $4.17 to win $14.25
                        ATTEMPT #2: Phillies with Cardinals -1.5 $4.17 to win $12.72
                        ATTEMPT #3: Dodgers -1.5 with Tigers $4.17 to win $13.42
                        ATTEMPT #4: Astros -1.5 $4.17 to win $12.51


                        These all lost. Phillies came close. I lost $16.88. I will now add them to my profit target of $200.

                        $216.88 divided by 48 = $4.52 My wagers will now be $4.52. I try some more tomorrow.
                        Comment
                        • keel44
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-01-09
                          • 3363

                          #13
                          ATTEMPT #5: Red Sox -1.5 game 1 with Tigers -1.5 $4.52 to win $15.89
                          ATTEMPT #6: Athletics with Cardinals $4.52 to win $14.43
                          ATTEMPT #7: Astros with Nationals $4.52 to win $14.04
                          Comment
                          • keel44
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-01-09
                            • 3363

                            #14
                            ATTEMPT #5: Red Sox -1.5 game 1 with Tigers -1.5 $4.52 to win $15.89
                            ATTEMPT #6: Athletics with Cardinals $4.52 to win $14.43
                            ATTEMPT #7: Astros with Nationals $4.52 to win $14.04


                            These all lost. My new wager amount will be $4.80

                            I have gone 3-10 straight up. No wonder I didn't win one yet.
                            Comment
                            • keel44
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-01-09
                              • 3363

                              #15
                              ATTEMPT #8: Astros with Angels $4.80 to win $25.68
                              ATTEMPT #9: Cardinals -1.5 with Mariners $4.80 to win $14.40
                              ATTEMPT #10: Rays -1.5 with Pirates $4.80 to win $16.80
                              Comment
                              • keel44
                                SBR MVP
                                • 08-01-09
                                • 3363

                                #16
                                ATTEMPT #8: Astros with Angels $4.80 to win $25.68
                                ATTEMPT #9: Cardinals -1.5 with Mariners $4.80 to win $14.40
                                ATTEMPT #10: Rays -1.5 with Pirates $4.80 to win $16.80


                                These all lost. 4-15 straight up. No wonder why I didn't win yet. My new wager amount is $5.10
                                Comment
                                • keel44
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 08-01-09
                                  • 3363

                                  #17
                                  ATTEMPT #11: Cubs with Astros +1.5 $5.10 to win $15.81
                                  ATTEMPT #12: Angels with Padres $5.10 to win $15.30
                                  ATTEMPT #13: Brewers with Royals $5.10 to win $15.86
                                  Comment
                                  • keel44
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-01-09
                                    • 3363

                                    #18
                                    ATTEMPT #11: Cubs with Astros +1.5 $5.10 to win $15.81
                                    ATTEMPT #12: Angels with Padres $5.10 to win $15.30

                                    ATTEMPT #13: Brewers with Royals $5.10 to win $15.86

                                    I will add these 2 losses in. My new wager amount will be $5.31 going forward.
                                    Comment
                                    • rawzay
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 05-07-13
                                      • 256

                                      #19
                                      To be honest I don't really see the point of this. It doesn't really address the actual picks which is the most important part of sports betting. The thing about sports betting is that at some point you lose a bet and if your betting all of your previous winnings on the next bet you will eventually lose a bet and start from point A again.
                                      Comment
                                      • keel44
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-01-09
                                        • 3363

                                        #20
                                        I really don't know of anyone on the forum addressing how they came up with a decision on who to bet and why.

                                        I am not throwing darts, but I need a money management technique of some sort, or I will pretty much break even with my picks. I have tried for years. Maybe I'm just not that good.
                                        Comment
                                        • keel44
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 08-01-09
                                          • 3363

                                          #21
                                          ATTEMPT 14: Tigers -1.5 with Rangers -1.5 $5.31 to $15.98
                                          ATTEMPT 15: Cubs with Yankees $5.31 to win $17.62
                                          ATTEMPT 16: White Sox -1.5 with Red Sox $5.31 to win $20.39
                                          ATTEMPT 13-2: White Sox -1.5 with Rangers $15.86 to win $50.46
                                          Comment
                                          • keel44
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-01-09
                                            • 3363

                                            #22
                                            ATTEMPT 14: Tigers -1.5 with Rangers -1.5 $5.31 to $15.98
                                            ATTEMPT 15: Cubs with Yankees $5.31 to win $17.62
                                            ATTEMPT 16: White Sox -1.5 with Red Sox $5.31 to win $20.39
                                            ATTEMPT 13-2: White Sox -1.5 with Rangers $15.86 to win $50.46


                                            These all lost. My new wager amount is $5.64
                                            Comment
                                            • Avala7ch3
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 06-04-12
                                              • 257

                                              #23
                                              this won't end well...
                                              Comment
                                              • keel44
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-01-09
                                                • 3363

                                                #24
                                                I am at an 8-23 stretch straight up. Even with a lot of those bets at +odds, I should have better results than that. I still have plenty of opportunity to complete my task. That is the power of this strategy.
                                                Last edited by keel44; 06-12-13, 10:27 AM.
                                                Comment
                                                • keel44
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-01-09
                                                  • 3363

                                                  #25
                                                  ATTEMPT #17: Angels with Cardinals -1.5 $5.64 to win $16.93
                                                  ATTEMPT #18: Braves -1.5 with Rays/Redsox Over 9 $5.64 to win $19.14
                                                  ATTEMPT #19: Giants with Rockies $5.64 to win $17.77
                                                  Last edited by keel44; 06-12-13, 10:32 AM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • keel44
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                    • 3363

                                                    #26
                                                    ATTEMPT #17: Angels with Cardinals -1.5 $5.64 to win $16.93
                                                    ATTEMPT #18: Braves -1.5 with Rays/Redsox Over 9 $5.64 to win $19.14
                                                    ATTEMPT #19: Giants with Rockies $5.64 to win $17.77


                                                    These all lost. I am currently 9-28 (24%) straight up. Wow. I have never been this bad in my life. When I get hotter, this strategy will come through.

                                                    My new wager amount will be $5.99
                                                    Comment
                                                    • mcuni
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 05-21-13
                                                      • 21

                                                      #27
                                                      You should also post amount in the bank left. By now it might be about 1107$.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • keel44
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                        • 3363

                                                        #28
                                                        Starting Bankroll $1200
                                                        Profit Target $200
                                                        Current Bankroll $1112.31

                                                        I am not even down $90 during this horrible stretch. If I were to be betting straight picks with higher dollar amounts, I would be down much, much more. I have plenty of opportunity to cash in.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • keel44
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-01-09
                                                          • 3363

                                                          #29
                                                          ATTEMPT #20: Mets +1.5 with Giants -1.5 $5.99 to win $19.68
                                                          ATTEMPT #21: Red Sox -1.5 with Yankees $5.99 to win $22.76
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Avala7ch3
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 06-04-12
                                                            • 257

                                                            #30
                                                            hope the better days are coming....i don't like parlays but i'm doing one with udog's RL...take a look if you are interested...you could come up with a few new ideas...GL

                                                            Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • keel44
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 08-01-09
                                                              • 3363

                                                              #31
                                                              ATTEMPT #20: Mets +1.5 with Giants -1.5 $5.99 to win $19.68
                                                              ATTEMPT #21: Red Sox -1.5 with Yankees $5.99 to win $22.76

                                                              My wager amount going forward will be $6.12
                                                              Comment
                                                              • keel44
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                • 3363

                                                                #32
                                                                ATTEMPT #22: Rays with Braves -1.5 $6.12 to win $19.64
                                                                ATTEMPT #23: Orioles -1.5 with A's $6.12 to win $19.13
                                                                Last edited by keel44; 06-14-13, 12:21 PM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • keel44
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 08-01-09
                                                                  • 3363

                                                                  #33
                                                                  ATTEMPT #22: Rays with Braves -1.5 $6.12 to win $19.64
                                                                  ATTEMPT #23: Orioles -1.5 with A's $6.12 to win $19.13


                                                                  These both lost.

                                                                  My wager amount going forward will be $6.37

                                                                  My straight up record falls to an unbelievable 12-33 (26.6%)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Minnesota Niice
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 03-27-13
                                                                    • 641

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Your saying you need to hit 3 measly parlays... When you say it like that it sounds pretty good.. Why not think about it like this, you have to hit 6 games in a row with 3 of them being decent underdogs... Also, if you break it down, put half of what you put on the 2 team parlay, so like around 2.50 in your case, and keep doubling it 6 times in a row on the same games you are betting the payouts would be decently higher... BOL
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • keel44
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 08-01-09
                                                                      • 3363

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Minnesota Niice
                                                                      Your saying you need to hit 3 measly parlays... When you say it like that it sounds pretty good.. Why not think about it like this, you have to hit 6 games in a row with 3 of them being decent underdogs... Also, if you break it down, put half of what you put on the 2 team parlay, so like around 2.50 in your case, and keep doubling it 6 times in a row on the same games you are betting the payouts would be decently higher... BOL
                                                                      Yes, that would be an idea. I could chase the "press" so to speak. That is basically what this thread is about. Various chasing of the "pressing" ideas.

                                                                      The main benefits are when your "cold", you use a negative progression so you can win fewer games to catch up. Then when you get hot, you use a positive progression to leap ahead in profits. There are countless ways to manage this.
                                                                      Comment
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