on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

No time for a full post today since I'm traveling, but (A) bets today on WASH to win 36, CLE to win 40, MIL to win 40and a (B) bet on STL to win 69

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks buddy, was just going to post NYY line dropped too much. Still gotta keep an eye out for it later. Similar to STL where it went to -145 then dropped then back up to like -150 before game time.

[BigBanker]

every year losing systems no such thing as a winning system imo

[J.M. Disciple]

every year losing systems no such thing as a winning system imo

Joking right? You apparently did not follow this system last year or previous years.

[md3324]

Should also note NYY has filtered potential if it can reach -145. Currently at -130 and 9 o/u.

[J.M. Disciple]

Should also note NYY has filtered potential if it can reach -145. Currently at -130 and 9 o/u.

Line is at -140 5dimes now and -138 on covers. I can only assume it will go up, but waiting minutes before game time... Have another 30minutes or so.

If it hits -145 it will be to win 40 regular and 20 filtered based on previous games being 36-40-40 there is only one other 40 left on the line.

[J.M. Disciple]

hmmm -140 5dimes for the closing lines. Most books -145+ though... Im on them regardless for 4.8u. Good luck Not an official play.

[J.M. Disciple]

KISS STL GOOD BYE! Very surprised to see them give up that many runs this early in the game.

[Trivial]

Hi Everyone,

I've tried figuring this out, but I can't find it on the first page of this thread anywhere. I would really like to understand this system some more. Is there a link that someone can point me at that I can read about it. I am intrigued. Thanks.

I see the point about the series, but I am not getting A games, B, C. Not getting filtered concepts either.

Don't understand when you say "TO WIN X regular vs. filtered". How many units is on each bet?

Any help is most graciously appreciated.

Thanks.

[on3]

(C) STL -166 to win 90

[Trivial]

(C) STL -166 to win 90

Heya on3. What makes this a C play? What is 90? How did you come up with 90? Thanks.

[J.M. Disciple]

Hi Everyone,

I've tried figuring this out, but I can't find it on the first page of this thread anywhere. I would really like to understand this system some more. Is there a link that someone can point me at that I can read about it. I am intrigued. Thanks.

I see the point about the series, but I am not getting A games, B, C. Not getting filtered concepts either.

Don't understand when you say "TO WIN X regular vs. filtered". How many units is on each bet?

Any help is most graciously appreciated.

Thanks.

3 game home chase where "A" being game 1 of the series has a closing line of -145 or higher. If game 1 loses you bet game 2 (B), the odds on game 2 does not matter and same with game 3 (C). $90 is the amount on3 is betting to win using labby lines as you can scroll through the thread and see how the labby works. He has a $20 unit size for this thread so STL is to win 4.5u. The filtered system is same as regular system however game 1 must have a o/u of 9 or higher.

Good Luck

[Trivial]

3 game home chase where "A" being game 1 of the series has a closing line of -145 or higher. If game 1 loses you bet game 2 (B), the odds on game 2 does not matter and same with game 3 (C). $90 is the amount on3 is betting to win using labby lines as you can scroll through the thread and see how the labby works. He has a $20 unit size for this thread so STL is to win 4.5u. The filtered system is same as regular system however game 1 must have a o/u of 9 or higher.

Good Luck

Thanks so much J.M.

This is really helpful. If game 1 wins do you still bet game 2 or 3?

I dont get the filtered still. Is the moneyline odds still matter for the over under? Thanks again!

[md3324]

STL is delayed...would hate to see Wacha be done for the day.

[md3324]

Thanks so much J.M.

This is really helpful. If game 1 wins do you still bet game 2 or 3?

I dont get the filtered still. Is the moneyline odds still matter for the over under? Thanks again!

Once a game in the series is won, the series is considered a win and the betting stops, therefore; if the A game wins you do not bet on B or C. If the A game loses and the B game wins, you do not bet on C.

A series becomes a "filtered" play when the regular criteria for a series is met (a team is starting a home series with the same team of at least 3 games and they are favored by -145 or higher on game 1) AND the O/U line is set at 9 runs or higher. The closing lines on 5dimes are used for the purpose of this system/thread and tracking purposes.

There are more little idiosyncrasies along the way that you will run into during the season and sometimes you have to make your own decisions as a bettor. You stated earlier that you could not find the system parameters on page 1 of this thread. If you want to be successful in betting and specifically with this system, I suggest you go back and read the entire thread. It may take 20 mins or so but it is worth it. I just got in on this system at the beginning of the season with no prior knowledge of it so believe me when I tell you, it is all there.

[Wallco99]

Well if he's been on SBR for 5 years and still doesn't know what a three game chase is he has to do a lot more than read. My god, what have you been doing for 5 years?

[Trivial]

Once a game in the series is won, the series is considered a win and the betting stops, therefore; if the A game wins you do not bet on B or C. If the A game loses and the B game wins, you do not bet on C.

A series becomes a "filtered" play when the regular criteria for a series is met (a team is starting a home series with the same team of at least 3 games and they are favored by -145 or higher on game 1) AND the O/U line is set at 9 runs or higher. The closing lines on 5dimes are used for the purpose of this system/thread and tracking purposes.

There are more little idiosyncrasies along the way that you will run into during the season and sometimes you have to make your own decisions as a bettor. You stated earlier that you could not find the system parameters on page 1 of this thread. If you want to be successful in betting and specifically with this system, I suggest you go back and read the entire thread. It may take 20 mins or so but it is worth it. I just got in on this system at the beginning of the season with no prior knowledge of it so believe me when I tell you, it is all there.

Thanks very much. This is a huge help. Very much appreciated. Will be able to follow along now. All the best. Good luck.

[Trivial]

Well if he's been on SBR for 5 years and still doesn't know what a three game chase is he has to do a lot more than read. My god, what have you been doing for 5 years?

My friend. I am mainly a football and hockey better. This is my hated time of the year where baseball has to do.

[J.M. Disciple]

Since I basically took this strategy from on3 and I remember the limit talking about a similar one a couple years back I figured I would post it and possibly help some people make some money. The labby method I was doing before seemed to be getting me in trouble. Here is what I will be doing this week after testing it for a couple of systems this week. Its a mixture of labby, martingale, and dividing your losses onto the next few series. Here is my example:

So following crusher this week I barely made .6u ($6) with crusher, burns, and on3 combined playing every single game. There was something defintely wrong with my 2 strike approach following these guys using an averaged out labby line with a tradtional method. cross 2 when you win and add 1 when you lose. If i had 2 #s on my line but had 4 games I would add 3units and six numbers to my line (.5u) per number. For some reason this strategy was not working, maybe I am dumb and it made sense in my head over a couple weeks, but what was happening was I would be down 100-200 going into the weekend almost every week then win on friday night or saturday and show a very small profit. I would reset my lines at the beginning of the week if I showed any profit. Thats the advice I got from Tgunn who post all of crusher's plays every morning. He handles stocks and told me people lose it all trying to chase the big one instead of taking the small gains. Anyways I went back over MLB plays for this week from crusher. On3 had a much better record, so I would assume I would make more with his as well.

I took a similar strategy from on3 but just using one line crusher went 16-12 and would of made 7.4u this week with the biggest bet being to win 2.7units. I just used +100 juice in my example so would of been a little higher. Anyways this is how it is laid out. Crusher has four plays just about every day. 3 side plays and one system play. I start my labby line with four numbers on it 1u per number (4u for the line)

may 26th
record: 2-2
Profit: $0
labby line: 10 10 10 10

I would take the two losses and add it to the numbers where he lost. So my line becomes 20 20 x x, the next day there are four plays again, so i would add two numbers and two units to the line. 20 20 10 10 then average it out.

may 27th
record: 3-1
Previous labby: 20 20 10 10
labby line: 15 15 15 15
Profit: +$30

again Add the game you lost to the number you were trying to cross out and your new line is 30 10 10 10 then you would average it out once more for the next day with four games. Never have more then 4 #s on your line.
When you average it out it becomes:

may 28th
record: 3-1
Previous labby: 30 10 10 10
averaged labby: 15 15 15 15
profit: $30

may 29th:
record: 2-2
Previous labby: 30 10 10 10
labby: 15 15 15 15
profit: $0

may 30th
previous labby: 30 30 10 10
averaged: 20 20 20 20
record: 2-2
profit: $0

may 31st
previous labby: 40 40 10 10
averaged: 22 22 22 22 (rounded)
record: 2-2

june 1st
prevous labby: 44 44 10 10
averaged: 27 27 27 27
record: 3-1
profit: +$54

total for the week
record: 16 wins - 12 losses
profit: $74

Let me know if this helps. Before I remember having a couple of 4 - 6 unit bets this week when I was adding multiple numbers to the line and average it out. I think keeping 4 numbers on your line works well and you could also just reset your line to a fresh one once peak profit is made on the week . Dont necessarily have to clear all four numbers via sweep for you to start a fresh line.

[J.M. Disciple]

Tomorrow we only have LAD which is probably -1.5RL since its over -190 juice depending on the closing line @ 5 dimes. STL and MIL I thought were plays but they are only 2 game home series.

[Linkan]

Since I basically took this strategy from on3 and I remember the limit talking about a similar one a couple years back I figured I would post it and possibly help some people make some money. The labby method I was doing before seemed to be getting me in trouble. Here is what I will be doing this week after testing it for a couple of systems this week. Its a mixture of labby, martingale, and dividing your losses onto the next few series. Here is my example:

So following crusher this week I barely made .6u ($6) with crusher, burns, and on3 combined playing every single game. There was something defintely wrong with my 2 strike approach following these guys using an averaged out labby line with a tradtional method. cross 2 when you win and add 1 when you lose. If i had 2 #s on my line but had 4 games I would add 3units and six numbers to my line (.5u) per number. For some reason this strategy was not working, maybe I am dumb and it made sense in my head over a couple weeks, but what was happening was I would be down 100-200 going into the weekend almost every week then win on friday night or saturday and show a very small profit. I would reset my lines at the beginning of the week if I showed any profit. Thats the advice I got from Tgunn who post all of crusher's plays every morning. He handles stocks and told me people lose it all trying to chase the big one instead of taking the small gains. Anyways I went back over MLB plays for this week from crusher. On3 had a much better record, so I would assume I would make more with his as well.

I took a similar strategy from on3 but just using one line crusher went 16-12 and would of made 7.4u this week with the biggest bet being to win 2.7units. I just used +100 juice in my example so would of been a little higher. Anyways this is how it is laid out. Crusher has four plays just about every day. 3 side plays and one system play. I start my labby line with four numbers on it 1u per number (4u for the line)

may 26th
record: 2-2
Profit: $0
labby line: 10 10 10 10

I would take the two losses and add it to the numbers where he lost. So my line becomes 20 20 x x, the next day there are four plays again, so i would add two numbers and two units to the line. 20 20 10 10 then average it out.

may 27th
record: 3-1
Previous labby: 20 20 10 10
labby line: 15 15 15 15
Profit: +$30

again Add the game you lost to the number you were trying to cross out and your new line is 30 10 10 10 then you would average it out once more for the next day with four games. Never have more then 4 #s on your line.
When you average it out it becomes:

may 28th
record: 3-1
Previous labby: 30 10 10 10
averaged labby: 15 15 15 15
profit: $30

may 29th:
record: 2-2
Previous labby: 30 10 10 10
labby: 15 15 15 15
profit: $0

may 30th
previous labby: 30 30 10 10
averaged: 20 20 20 20
record: 2-2
profit: $0

may 31st
previous labby: 40 40 10 10
averaged: 22 22 22 22 (rounded)
record: 2-2

june 1st
prevous labby: 44 44 10 10
averaged: 27 27 27 27
record: 3-1
profit: +$54

total for the week
record: 16 wins - 12 losses
profit: $74

Let me know if this helps. Before I remember having a couple of 4 - 6 unit bets this week when I was adding multiple numbers to the line and average it out. I think keeping 4 numbers on your line works well and you could also just reset your line to a fresh one once peak profit is made on the week . Dont necessarily have to clear all four numbers via sweep for you to start a fresh line.

So if i understand you correctly:

1. You only have 1 line for all bets (A, B, C).
2. The starting line consist of 4 numbers, each representing 1 unit.
3. Each bet placed is to win ONE number on the line.
4. A loss is added to the number the losing bet was trying to win.
5. Every day, before making the bets, the line is reset to 4 numbers by averaging the previous days results + adding 1 unit for each crossed number the previo day.

questions:

If you have 2 numbers on your line before making plays for the day (going 2-2 the day before). And you will place 5 bets, you would add 3 units + averaging over all 5?

If you only have 1 play for the day, it i is still to win number out of 4?

[J.M. Disciple]

So if i understand you correctly:

1. You only have 1 line for all bets (A, B, C).
2. The starting line consist of 4 numbers, each representing 1 unit.
3. Each bet placed is to win ONE number on the line.
4. A loss is added to the number the losing bet was trying to win.
5. Every day, before making the bets, the line is reset to 4 numbers by averaging the previous days results + adding 1 unit for each crossed number the previo day.

questions:

If you have 2 numbers on your line before making plays for the day (going 2-2 the day before). And you will place 5 bets, you would add 3 units + averaging over all 5?

If you only have 1 play for the day, it i is still to win number out of 4?

Question #1: Yes, if I had 5 bets for this system I will add a 5# and average out the line. If its a fresh line then it should consist of 5 units; 1u per number.

Question #2 yes, I will start each day with four numbers whether its 4 plays or 1 play. Its pretty similiar to what on3 is doing except I am just using 1 line and averaging out over the line instead of splitting half the loss over 1 line and half loss over another line. It is a little more of an aggressive approach I suppose. Usually this system will never have more then 5 plays though. Four is just the number I chose, you can do less or more, but from a pretty high win percentage with this system four should be fine. I personally would not go more then 6 numbers on a line.

As you can see my example was applied from crusher's system this week, so can really be applied to any system. Its just a money management strategy really. Its not full proof as you seen last years thread things got a little crazy little after all star break if I remember correctly. Would definitely have a stop loss where I would reset my line if it got too heavy or split it among other systems.

Thanks for for breaking it down into a summary though Appreciate it.

Austin

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/2/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 69-3-0; Profit: +57.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 46-26; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-14; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 11-3; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
70-x-x-x
x-50-48-69
30-20-20-x

shuffle

30-25-25-30
30-30-38-39
30-20-20-20

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) LAD -186 to win 30

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[Linkan]

On3: MIL shouldnt be a play should it? only 2 game homestand and then 2 games in Minnesota..

JM: Thanks for sharing your system, i will try using it for a while since i've had the same feeling as you described in the presentatation of your thoughts.

[hagball52]

Why is Milwaukee a play? They're doing a 2 and 2, home and away.

[on3]

Why is Milwaukee a play? They're doing a 2 and 2, home and away.

youre right, i saw a 4 game series on my list and listed it without checking the home and away. post is fixed.

[on3]

On3: MIL shouldnt be a play should it? only 2 game homestand and then 2 games in Minnesota..

JM: Thanks for sharing your system, i will try using it for a while since i've had the same feeling as you described in the presentatation of your thoughts.

youre right. i fixed the post. thanks for double checking.

[Wallco99]

youre right. i fixed the post. thanks for double checking.

The Dodgers are pretty much a (-200) favorite across the board. Doesn't this become a -1 1/2 runs play?

[J.M. Disciple]

The Dodgers are pretty much a (-200) favorite across the board. Doesn't this become a -1 1/2 runs play?

yes, I personally bet -1.5 at my book since it was at -191. I am guessing on3 got it early in the reduced section at 5 dimes. It is graded as as final line anyways, so he can adjust later.

[on3]

The Dodgers are pretty much a (-200) favorite across the board. Doesn't this become a -1 1/2 runs play?

yes, if the closing line calls for it, then it is a RL play.

[J.M. Disciple]

Nice with on LAD tonight. Up to bat we have Wash and COL, with COL being a filtered play as well. Looking like a promising week.

[Wallco99]

yes, if the closing line calls for it, then it is a RL play.

What closing line do you use to begin the -1 1/2 plays? is it -200 or is it in the -190's?

[knugen]

And Atlanta?

[Wallco99]

And Atlanta?

Two game series. Detroit is possible if lines climb.

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/3/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 70-3-0; Profit: +58.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 47-26; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-14; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 11-3; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
30-25-25-x
30-30-38-39
30-20-20-20

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) COL -155 to win 30
(A) WSH -186 to win 25

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) COL -155 to win 20

5/2
none