on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

I would like to point out we need an actual unit count instead of just banking the wins. Just in case the labby does get heavy and we create a stop loss. I believe this happened once last year.

= +45.5 units - 17.5 units sitting on the line + 3.5 units added this week + 3 units added previously = +34.5 units

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks on3. Pretty simple to figure out now that you lay it out. Sorry Can't give any more points today, but appreciate the reply.

[mantorras77]

Cha-ching!!!

[J.M. Disciple]

KC saved me from a big losing day. Still had a losing day from other systems, but not too bad. Just couple units. Could have been a lot worse. Looking forward to tomorrows action!

Good night peoples.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/22/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 59-2-0; Profit: +46.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 39-22; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 10-12; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 10-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
32-33-x-32
x-x-65-60
x-20-20-x

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) SD -149 to win 32
(A) CWS -150 to win 33
(A) SEA -154 to win 32

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[on3]

good win last night. i got greedy and played some RL as well at +170. the (C) bet RL's have been performing very well, just fyi, in case some of you want to dabble.

[J.M. Disciple]

SD B, LAA A, AND SF A for today. Nothing else stands out to be even close to qualifying. Sorry I gotta place bets early due to work. Not trying to take over this thread by any means.


Good Luck Everyone

[on3]

SD B, LAA A, AND SF A for today. Nothing else stands out to be even close to qualifying. Sorry I gotta place bets early due to work. Not trying to take over this thread by any means.


Good Luck Everyone

SD closed well under -145 yesterday. no B bet today for them.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/22/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 61-2-0; Profit: +49.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 41-22; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 10-12; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 10-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
x-x-31-31
x-x-35-60
x-20-20-x

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) SF -164 to win 31
(A) LAA -154 to win 31

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

SD closed well under -145 yesterday. no B bet today for them.

Too late for me. I like the play anyways so i'll take it. I was just going off your post and didn't bother to check yesterdays closing lines. Thats why your in charge of this thread. Boss man pays attention to the details.

[J.M. Disciple]

[md3324]

What's up guys? I've been following since the beginning of the season and love what's going on here....especially the past couple days 👍. I've cleaned up my own labby huge with the last 5 "A" games! Looking forward to the rest of season. At 7:34 pm ATL was -145 so I played them and they hit even though it closed at at -142. Good luck everyone...."Who's 🐎'ing????"

[J.M. Disciple]

Enjoy your Saturday off everyone.

[J.M. Disciple]

Another dark day for this system Enjoy your memorial weekend everyone.

[J.M. Disciple]

Finally some action for this system to start the week off. Not sure if on3 will create a fresh A line or move some of the B line up or not. Tomorrow I have
Tor regular and filtered system (o9)
kc
stl
Possibly MIL Pending line movement, early game
Oak possibly, but unlikely...

[J.M. Disciple]

Hopefully ON3 post the bet amounts soon. MIL is a play based on 5dimes. Current line is in the 160s. If on3 is busy or tied up I would just play the standard $20 each since its a fresh A line. Also extra $20 on Tor for being regular and filtered system.


Good Luck everyone. MIL starts in about 90 min

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/26/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 63-2-0; Profit: +51.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 43-22; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 10-12; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 10-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
+4 units added

20-20-20-20
15-15-35-30
x-20-20-x

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) TOR -148 to win 20
(A) MIL -148 to win 20
(A) KC -153 to win 20
(A) STL -159 to win 20

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) TOR -148 to win 20

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

three B's tomorrow. Only STL seems like a decent play. Bad start for cappers to start this week. Seemed like everyone was on KC and the under for hockey.

Fingers crossed tomorrow!

[on3]

TOR was not a play last night, but congrats to anyone who played it. I'm itching for a 5/2 play, but these filtered plays are few and far between.


UPDATED for 5/27/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 63-2-0; Profit: +51.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 43-25; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 10-12; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 10-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
20-36-35-35
26-20-48-48
x-20-20-x

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(B) MIL -121 to win 48
(B) KC -122 to win 48
(B) STL -142 to win 46

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

TOR was not a play last night, but congrats to anyone who played it. I'm itching for a 5/2 play, but these filtered plays are few and far between.none

When thelimit made his 5/2 betting strategy i am not sure if he realized A has the highest win percentage historically, but also much higher juice. I know it was brought up last season, but not sure if he ever went back and looked at the overall record to figure it out. I believe (which doesn't matter), the 5/2 will be better for A and B rather then B and C because of the higher win percentage on A.

If anyone has the overall record laying around for A and B maybe we can figure it out. Maybe thelimit has his data saved on his computer still from the backtest. Would be very interested to see the numbers.

This season for example would be
6 wins @ 5 units = 30 units
1 loss for roughly 15-20 units would still be +10units.

B and C are barely over 50% win rate if my memory serves me correct.

[J.M. Disciple]

MIL was a crazy game, but looks like we have KC tomorrow for a C bet. Also game is at 2Pm ET or 11am pacific whatever time zone your in just remember its the earliest game tomorrow, so hopefully no one misses a bet.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/28/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 65-2-0; Profit: +53.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 43-25; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-13; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 10-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
20-36-35-35
x-x-48-19
x-20-20-40

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) KC -135 to win 60

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

Just moving forward! kc is now history and will stay in the past. Move forward and recover some of these units with new series starting tomorrow.

[Primet76]

Ick!

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/29/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 65-3-0; Profit: +53.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 43-25; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-13; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 10-3; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
40-36-40-40
x-x-48-39
30-20-20-40

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
none
if STL gets to -145 and higher, they will be an (A) play to win 40

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[Wallco99]

Doesn't St. Louis have a shot to be a play tonight? They are currently -145 on 5Dimes.

[on3]

Doesn't St. Louis have a shot to be a play tonight? They are currently -145 on 5Dimes.

just saw that, currently at -140. i edited my post to reflect that they MIGHT be a play.

[on3]

looks like the play is damn near official. sitting at -145 to -150 across the board.

[J.M. Disciple]

I know last night it was like -141 but seen line drop to -135 earlier on covers. i think ill play it regardless since MLB is off to a bad start for me. could use the extra action.

[J.M. Disciple]

Or not.... guess game already started... dang!

[md3324]

Well for those of us who missed the play, hopefully they lose and we can jump in on it tomorrow.
B and C games would have Wainwright and Wacha going...not too shabby.

[Wallco99]

Well for those of us who missed the play, hopefully they lose and we can jump in on it tomorrow.
B and C games would have Wainwright and Wacha going...not too shabby.

I understand what you are saying, but comments like that are not really ones we make in these threads. We still have to hope that the people who do have money on the team get their win, especially since those of us who missed it, including myself, have nothing to lose. Just my opinion, but I am not a big fan of openly rooting against system plays in the thread where that particular system is posted.

[Wallco99]

Or not.... guess game already started... dang!

Did the same thing. I could have sworn the start time was 8:35. Missed it by 10 minutes.

[J.M. Disciple]

wainwright and wacha, one of them will surely be able to take down SF. Two of the best pitchers currently in MLB. I will either be down 6u or 1u pending which way dogers game goes tonight. Tie game 2-2 right now. After a terrible start to the day i'll still manage to show a small profit with burns and crusher today. Could of been up way more if SAS didn't lose by half apoint! freakin OKC only 15pts in the 4th

Anyways onto STL tomorrow to put me in the green for the week agian.


pretty good card tomorrow
Cle (maybe)
wash
stl (B)
mil
nyy

Lines are decently close to -145 though, so defitely going to wait until tomorrow close to game time before I lock in my wagers. 20cent shift and they could all be wiped away besides stl.

[md3324]

I understand what you are saying, but comments like that are not really ones we make in these threads. We still have to hope that the people who do have money on the team get their win, especially since those of us who missed it, including myself, have nothing to lose. Just my opinion, but I am not a big fan of openly rooting against system plays in the thread where that particular system is posted.

I completely agree. Selfish logic on my part and I apologize for it. I re-read my post and sounded like an ass. Hopefully everyone can cash in tonight. Handful of plays today to help clean up our labbys. Good luck to all.