on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

[J.M. Disciple]

what closing line do you use to begin the -1 1/2 plays? Is it -200 or is it in the -190's?

-190 or >

[Trivial]

UPDATED for 6/3/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 70-3-0; Profit: +58.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 47-26; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-14; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 11-3; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
30-25-25-x
30-30-38-39
30-20-20-20

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) COL -155 to win 30
(A) WSH -186 to win 25

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) COL -155 to win 20

5/2
none

Do you play COL twice in this case? Once to win 30 and then again for 20? Where did the 30 and 20 come from?

Thanks.

[J.M. Disciple]

Do you play COL twice in this case? Once to win 30 and then again for 20? Where did the 30 and 20 come from?

Thanks.

Read post #327 and #330. This question has already been answered for YOU! the other day. Please do not ask questions if you are not going to read the response.

[on3]

-190 or >

correct, -190

[Trivial]

Read post #327 and #330. This question has already been answered for YOU! the other day. Please do not ask questions if you are not going to read the response.

Hi JM,

I get the play is filtered. I get why it is filtered. I did not get if you play it twice or once as a result today.


Thanks.

[J.M. Disciple]

Hi JM,

I get the play is filtered. I get why it is filtered. I did not get if you play it twice or once as a result today.


Thanks.

There are two systems in here both are home game systems that overlap with each other. The filtered plays are tracked seperately. Two bets same team, same game, or bet $50 on them and count it as two systems.

[Trivial]

There are two systems in here both are home game systems that overlap with each other. The filtered plays are tracked seperately. Two bets same team, same game, or bet $50 on them and count it as two systems.

Thanks. Got it ! Much obliged.

Good luck tonight.

[J.M. Disciple]

Only COL today; reg & filt. Other system is on them as well, so going to be either really bad going into mid week or back in the green.

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/4/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 71-3-0; Profit: +59.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 48-27; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-14; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 11-3; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
30-25-x-23
30-30-48-52
30-20-20-20

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10-31

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(B) COL -125 to win 52

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(B) COL -125 to win 41

5/2
COL -125 to win 100 (5 units)

[J.M. Disciple]

Dang COL bonning me hard tonight. Bet that game 3 times, regular, filtered and another system. Be lucky if i even get close to breaking even with other plays today.

[J.M. Disciple]

Lets hope ARz plays slow pitch against COL. Freaking pathetic 6 run inning in the 8th. This game is a damn roller coaster.

I know its a blind system, but just curious what people think of the C bet tomorrow. Looks like COL has a better pitcher and home field. Only if they can play a little defense... Will there be any change from todays game? I am going to have at least 6u on them tomorrow, so looking for a boost of confidence it will work out alright.

[TenCount]

Lets hope ARz plays slow pitch against COL. Freaking pathetic 6 run inning in the 8th. This game is a damn roller coaster.

I know its a blind system, but just curious what people think of the C bet tomorrow. Looks like COL has a better pitcher and home field. Only if they can play a little defense... Will there be any change from todays game? I am going to have at least 6u on them tomorrow, so looking for a boost of confidence it will work out alright.

That is the problem with these blind systems. It doesn't take into account losing and winning streaks which are a real tangible part of baseball. The old philosophy is you never wager on a team in the middle of a large losing slump or conversely you should wager on a streaking team. Confidence is a huge part of baseball and those last two losses at home, particularly tonight has to destroy Colorado's bullpen/pitching confidence, not to mention losing a very important all-star in Cargo. So after all that being said, I personally would be very nervous betting on a team that has lost 6 or 7 st8 and who has just been completely destroyed at home. Good luck boys. I'll be sitting this one out.

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/5/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 71-3-0; Profit: +59.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 48-27; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-15; 0-2; 0-1
Game 3 (C) win = 11-3; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
30-25-x-23
45-45-48-52
20-30-20-55

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10-31-51

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) COL -128 to win 75

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(C) COL -128 to win 61

5/2
COL -128 to win 165 (2 units + yesterdays loss)

[on3]

fun day yesterday, right fellas?? i thought id take a moment to remind a lot of the new guys in here to please remember to bet within your limits. you may not think a $20 unit is much, but once the series' get longer it builds up. if you cannot afford the (C) bet, DONT BET IT. if you cannot afford this system, DONT PLAY IT. please remember to manage your bankroll. if you started playing the system late, you dont have the cushion that we Day 1 players have.

with that said, enjoy the game tonight.

[J.M. Disciple]

I would just change it from B to C on3.

[J.M. Disciple]

AND arz has now scored 13 runs in 3 innings against COL. Picking right up where they left off late last night. Kiss my 11.5 units at risk on them good bye. Just wish there were more series to help balance out this loss. That or if I only played them once instead of following 3 systems all of which had them. That is six losses for me... Still first inning but already 2-0 and guys still on base I am not confident in this team at all.

[J.M. Disciple]

WE HAVE A CHANCE 7-6! BASES LOAD BOTTOM OF THE 7TH COMMON ROCKS!

Thank goodness for Live bets on spurs. Huge 4th quarter to put me back in the green; now just looking for the rocks to really boost my week. Either up 4u or up around 12u if they win.

[knugen]

This loss really Hurt. Hoppas for some New plays today to recover a bit

[md3324]

There will be plays today. TEX and LAA (most likely -1.5) are definitely plays. CIN, TB and SF are all close at the moment.

[Primet76]

I know this doesn't really fit in with a blind system, but I am wondering if Rockies home games should have a higher number in order to be a filtered play. I was thinking of this the last time they came up as filtered (although they won that time). This would essentially be a park adjustment factor.

[J.M. Disciple]

sf line seems to be dropping and I really can not understand how TB keeps being a favorite on a 10 game losing streak. If tB magically becomes a play I will be fading them still. Team is almost as bad as Philly this week.

[J.M. Disciple]

I know this doesn't really fit in with a blind system, but I am wondering if Rockies home games should have a higher number in order to be a filtered play. I was thinking of this the last time they came up as filtered (although they won that time). This would essentially be a park adjustment factor.

Hard to backtest individual teams with a higher filtered number then others. Its hard enough getting enough filtred plays in this season then to increase it. I always wanted to look at -200 favorites as the opening A game, but have not got around to backtesting it yet. Would definitely take out a lot of plays, but would be easier to avoid some line movment and would not have keep checking the lines.

[on3]

I know this doesn't really fit in with a blind system, but I am wondering if Rockies home games should have a higher number in order to be a filtered play. I was thinking of this the last time they came up as filtered (although they won that time). This would essentially be a park adjustment factor.

COL does have a higher o/u than other parks, but still, they have given us two filtered wins (I believe) and this loss. No need to overreact, the system takes an L on a filtered about 6% of the time. We took this one on the chin, but hey, it happens. The fact that there was a system loss on 5/28 and one so soon after is more frustrating. Back at it...

[on3]

unit count:
Regular = +59.5 + 3.5 units added + 3 units added + 4 units added - 24.5 sitting on the line = +45.5 units
Filtered = +7 + 2 units added - 10 units on line = -1 unit
5/2 = -16.8 units
total = +27.7 units

UPDATED for 6/6/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 71-4-0; Profit: +45.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, -10.25 units)
Filtered System: 7-1-0; Profit: -1 units
5/2 chase: 0-1-0; profit: -16.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 48-27; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-15; 0-2; 0-1
Game 3 (C) win = 11-4; 1-1; 0-1

Labby (24.5 units on line)
30-30-33-33
45-45-48-52
40-40-48-45

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10-31-51-78
shuffle
28-28-30-30-30-38-18

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) TEX -164 to win 30
(A) LAA -195/+110 to win 33 -- play RL
(A) TOR -150 to win 30
(A) SF -140 to win 30** possible play
(A) CIN -140 to win 30** possible play
(A) TB -137 to win 33**possible play

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) TOR -150 to win 46

5/2
none

[on3]

toronto just got steamed, looks like it'll be a play. just updated the post. 3 possible plays as well.

[Primet76]

Thanks, On3. I knew that would sound reactionary, but it was just a thought.

As far as another thought, has anyone ever thought to back test chasing series favorites? For instance, chasing a series favorite as -200 or better (which in the case of the upcoming slate is SF and Cincy)?

[Wallco99]

Thanks, On3. I knew that would sound reactionary, but it was just a thought.

As far as another thought, has anyone ever thought to back test chasing series favorites? For instance, chasing a series favorite as -200 or better (which in the case of the upcoming slate is SF and Cincy)?

Yes, YOU just thought of it.

[Wallco99]

toronto just got steamed, looks like it'll be a play. just updated the post. 3 possible plays as well.

Let's not forget Detroit. They are currently there as well.

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks for the update. Freaking AMAZED how TB, TOR, and DET all get boosted up really high like that. Lots of action today. I am playing everything RL at my on accord of course. Just hoping to hit 50% and stay in the green.

[Primet76]

Yeah sorry. Honestly never saw JMs post before making mine.

[J.M. Disciple]

Yeah sorry. Honestly never saw JMs post before making mine.

Your thought was a little different then mine as yours was based on series prices. Mine was just based on game1 price. Series price might have a bigger impact on winning I would think. I am not sure how you would test that out though. Is the series price only based on 3 game stands or is it based on 2 game and 4 game stands as well? I am not sure if the books differentiate the three.

[J.M. Disciple]

5-1 TODAY penetrating AWSOME! GREAT BOUNCE BACK. I had fresh labby lines after making a big live bet on spurs yesterday. Decided to place 1u on every RL today to get +odds on all of them. I would of been ok with an even day at 2-3 or better yet 3-2 but 5-1 is just awsome after that brutal coloardo series. Only brutal caused i played them 9 times! I would of been ok with playing them 3 times. Either way back up around 10 units this week thanks to this system.

Great JOB on3 and thanks wallco and others for extra contributions making sure all the plays like det and tor are accounted for. Banked me an extra 2.8u with those plays, which i would of never seen if people didn't post.

Thanks everyone. Lets get that CINCI bet tomorrow. Freaking PHILLY hahaha. I am confident in this series, way more then I was in COL.

[on3]

By my count it was 6-0, LAA, SF, TOR, TB, DET, TEX. Cin closed at -133, so no play there. No plays for the weekend. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Wallco99]

By my count it was 6-0, LAA, SF, TOR, TB, DET, TEX. Cin closed at -133, so no play there. No plays for the weekend. Correct me if I'm wrong.

7-0 counting the double bet on Toronto. Great job.

[TenCount]

By my count it was 6-0, LAA, SF, TOR, TB, DET, TEX. Cin closed at -133, so no play there. No plays for the weekend. Correct me if I'm wrong.

You are correct. It's interesting seeing the roller coaster of emotions in the comments from day to day. Gambling is a sick mother*er man. Like crazy sick.