on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

[mantorras77]

LAA -137 at 5Dimes at game time. WOW!

[fitguy67]

intriguing stuff here...think i'm up to speed, save one important issue...

the important criterion for "official-ness" (the need to close at at least a -145 favorite)...

could we all be made aware of an unambiguous refinement of that requirement for example such as "at 5d, as it appears on
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/money-line at exactly 10 minutes before the official scheduled start of the game"

asking that the price meet/exceed the -145 threshold at each and every book at the specified "very near closing" time at which the crucial "play or pass" decision must be made is asking a lot and increases the probability of a technical glitch in odds-reporting with another book leading to confusion and much "gnashing of teeth" with some getting in/others left out (correctly or incorrectly...profitably or catastrophically...with all the elation and anger and name-calling that would unleash)

i suggest the refined definition of meeting/exceeding the stated -145 threshold be chosen from among the following options

1. as stated at 5d, at an exact # of specified minutes before the game's starting time

2. as stated at pinnacle, at an # of specified minutes before the game's starting time

3. as stated at at least one of 5d OR pinnacle, at an # of specified minutes before the game's starting time

4. as stated simultaneously at both 5d AND pinnacle, at an # of specified minutes before the game's starting time
____________

i'm not trying to open a can of worms here...the decision as to exactly how to clearly specify the "official or not" requirements in a way that all can be sure, even when the line is in the "borderline" range such as tonight should be left to the OP...

on3, much appreciation for the herculean effort you've already put into developing this project...but one small yet crucial thing need be done to avoid an armageddon of confusion-driven pissed-offedness...

please state which book or books will be referred to and exactly how many minutes before official starting time of the game will be used to classify the game as "official" or not (the start times stated on the sbr-odds page will do nicely and any system-follower need only subtract the required number of minutes from it to know exactly when to check in and find out)...

then all followers will be on the same page and know exactly "when" and "what books" to check for the simple "a -145 or larger favorite" condition...and a Morisson-type disaster of confusion over whether the big C-play was "official or not" can be avoided

[mantorras77]

@fitguy67 if the lines are close across the books then 5Dimes is used. There was no confusion about tonights game. 5Dimes had the line dropping 10 mins before start of game so it was clear that it wasn't going to be a play.

[fitguy67]

so, could we say the criterion for official would be based on
*the ML-price at 5dimes as it appears on sbr-odds
*at exactly 10 minutes before the official start of game (as it is registered as sbr-odds)

______________

i'm not trying to be a trouble maker...quite the contrary...Murphy's Law has a way to make something ambiguous arise late in the season on a monster game-C...what would appear clearly a go for some would appear clearly a no-go to others...then the fur and feathers will fly...all unnecessarily

with an additional bold-faced sentence (such as what i've featued above) stating exactly what book(s)' price(s) at exactly what time time relative to the game's official start...all ambiguity evaporates

study the history of Morisson's service and the multiple controversies that have arisen over his lack of clarity as to what qualifiied/disqualified a play (so that he could later classify it apparently-plausibly in whatever way suited him best...)
he left (and probably continues to leave) a few simple-yet-key things deliberately vague...we don't have to...

if *5dimes as the official reference and
*10minutes prior to official game-start
work for you...it's fine by me...but it should NOT be left vague

[Linkan]

It's a winner! But man it was hairy.

[J.M. Disciple]

Definitely very lucky with LAA tonight for an unofficial 2u profit for me because I played both systems.

I would go further in then just 10minutes when games are that close. I would wait maybe just 2 minutes before game time to see the 5d line. Also with regards to it being a big C bet or big B bet, only the -145 line matters on the A bets, so less to worry about. It is a labby though, so it is possible for the A bets to be big as well.

[Trivial]

LAA is tonights pick..if the line closes at -145 or higher then place a wager on it. Check 5dimes for the line.

Thanks. I get it now.

[mantorras77]

For today so far we have TEX and COL. Keep a watch on WSH & NYY.

[Wallco99]

so, could we say the criterion for official would be based on
*the ML-price at 5dimes as it appears on sbr-odds
*at exactly 10 minutes before the official start of game (as it is registered as sbr-odds)

______________

i'm not trying to be a trouble maker...quite the contrary...Murphy's Law has a way to make something ambiguous arise late in the season on a monster game-C...what would appear clearly a go for some would appear clearly a no-go to others...then the fur and feathers will fly...all unnecessarily

with an additional bold-faced sentence (such as what i've featued above) stating exactly what book(s)' price(s) at exactly what time time relative to the game's official start...all ambiguity evaporates

study the history of Morisson's service and the multiple controversies that have arisen over his lack of clarity as to what qualifiied/disqualified a play (so that he could later classify it apparently-plausibly in whatever way suited him best...)
he left (and probably continues to leave) a few simple-yet-key things deliberately vague...we don't have to...

if *5dimes as the official reference and
*10minutes prior to official game-start
work for you...it's fine by me...but it should NOT be left vague

It's not vague at all. FINAL line at 5dimes seems pretty clear to me. Your comparison to Morrison is just ludicrous. Morrison uses the best line on every book ay ANY time of the day as his line to bet, that is not happening here. Apparently on3's backtests were performed using the FINAL lines at 5dimes, which means all future plays for the system, if derived correctly, should come from the same source at the same point in time. You can't just change the system lines for convenience, since there are no backtested results to say how system would have performed on games deemed official 10 minutes before close. Some of the biggest line movements happen a few minutes before close, quite often. Sometimes you are on teams when you shouldn't be and sometimes you'll miss plays, that's the breaks. But as far as determining OFFICIAL system plays, he is doing it correctly, unlike Morrison who deliberately keeps it vague to pad his stats. The rules say -145 and over at close. If you are not comfortable with that, then personally change it to -155 and over for your personal bets. They would all still be considered official plays anyway. You'll miss some of the lower line games, but you will no longer have to worry about betting on a team that is unofficial. For me, I am fine with it the way it is, and really don't want to see him start taking OFFICIAL game lines at a different point in time, or from a different site, then the ones used in his backtest.

** Note: This whole post is based on the assumption that on3 did use final lines at 5dimes for his backtest. If not, then I would have to agree with you that there is no point for any uncertainty at close.

[fitguy67]

thanks to mantorros, JM, and wallco for clarifying a few key things...in the end, we are responsible for managing our own accounts and play submissions and anything we ultimately do (mindfully or mistakenly) becomes de facto "official" for us...and spreading out the accumulated loss-backlog into a lab-line matrix makes the consequences of a slip-up one way or the other less earth-shattering...we've either "unofficially" lightened or heavied the $-burden remaining in our lab-matrix...but, one way or another, those lines will be with us all season, guiding our bet-sizes anyhow...divergences from some theoretical definition of "official" ultimately don't matter over the course of a season...just one more/less chunk of $ that the lines tell us must be cleared with future wins...

got it...thanks guyz

[TenCount]

so, could we say the criterion for official would be based on
*the ML-price at 5dimes as it appears on sbr-odds
*at exactly 10 minutes before the official start of game (as it is registered as sbr-odds)

______________

i'm not trying to be a trouble maker...quite the contrary...Murphy's Law has a way to make something ambiguous arise late in the season on a monster game-C...what would appear clearly a go for some would appear clearly a no-go to others...then the fur and feathers will fly...all unnecessarily

with an additional bold-faced sentence (such as what i've featued above) stating exactly what book(s)' price(s) at exactly what time time relative to the game's official start...all ambiguity evaporates

study the history of Morisson's service and the multiple controversies that have arisen over his lack of clarity as to what qualifiied/disqualified a play (so that he could later classify it apparently-plausibly in whatever way suited him best...)
he left (and probably continues to leave) a few simple-yet-key things deliberately vague...we don't have to...

if *5dimes as the official reference and
*10minutes prior to official game-start
work for you...it's fine by me...but it should NOT be left vague

huh???

[Wallco99]

huh???

Yeah, Chinese isn't my strong language either.

[thompson182]

He's saying the time and site the line should be pulled from should be the same for every close line.

However, if you'll read back the units and W/L are kept quite accurate and aren't skewed with official/unofficial plays. It'd not a betting system he's selling so there's no advantage to skew its results.

[J.M. Disciple]

my local now has washing @ -145. 5d is still pretty low -132.... hmmm

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/16/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 53-2-0; Profit: +39 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +6 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 37-18; 5-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-10; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
15-x-26-10
10-20-26-42
x-10-10-x

Labby filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) TEX -165 to win 25
(A) COL -155 to win 26

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) COL -155 to win 20

5/2
none

[Primet76]

Rockies are interesting. If it creeps up a little more, it has filtered criteria.

[J.M. Disciple]

wash is at -138 right now 5dimes. Might jump right before game start in the next few minutes, keeping a very close eye on it. One of those games where I am pretty iffy about betting it and feels like its a coinflip.

[J.M. Disciple]

COL looks like a play on3 as well as filtered as mentioned above. -146 right now on covers.

For those of you who are following On3 might not update. It should be COL filtered to win $20, Regular system to win $26 if Washington doesn't qualify. If washington qualifies then would just be 20/20.

Good LUck everyone. I think i will only be on COL and Tex.

[on3]

COL looks like a play on3 as well as filtered as mentioned above. -146 right now on covers.

For those of you who are following On3 might not update. It should be COL filtered to win $20, Regular system to win $26 if Washington doesn't qualify. If washington qualifies then would just be 20/20.

Good LUck everyone. I think i will only be on COL and Tex.

updated

[J.M. Disciple]

is it only Tex today (b)? This game truely worries me as Tex has one of the worst pitchers in MLB on the mound. Tor's pitcher looks better then Darvish. I will be on it, but definitely not going big or checking the score on this game. Hope they pull the pitcher early in the game and texas can provide a ton of run support (not likely).

Think we might be able to get plus odds if we wait before game time. Seems like a pretty one sided bet.

nyy is a possibility but only -132 right now @ 5d. Keep an eye on it as line is rising.

Good luck everyone

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/17/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 54-2-0; Profit: +40 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 38-19; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-10; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
15-x-20-10
10-20-36-52
x-10-10-x

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(B) TEX -109 to win 62

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[TenCount]

Quick question for this moron trying to get a handle on this labby concenpt. On3 had Tex -165 to win $25 yesterday. That is $41.25 to win $25. But for today's labby he added in 26....... 6 to the top line of the labby and 20 to the second line. Shouldnt he have added 41.25?(the amount that was lost on the texas game) This question is for anybody who knows. (I know people get tired of answering questions and trust me I tried to figure this out on my own lol)

[J.M. Disciple]

Quick question for this moron trying to get a handle on this labby concenpt. On3 had Tex -165 to win $25 yesterday. That is $41.25 to win $25. But for today's labby he added in 26....... 6 to the top line of the labby and 20 to the second line. Shouldnt he have added 41.25?(the amount that was lost on the texas game) This question is for anybody who knows. (I know people get tired of answering questions and trust me I tried to figure this out on my own lol)

I am not sure what you are looking at.

starting labby:
Labby
15-x-26-10
10-20-26-42
x-10-10-x

After yesterday
Labby
15-x-20-10
10-20-36-52
x-10-10-x

There were two plays yesterday which COL cleared $26 from line A, Texas lost so he added $20 to line A and $20 to line B over the last two numbers. Notice 26 to 36 and 42 to 52. So He is only like a $1 off at most.

[J.M. Disciple]

My local has tex -117 now but +1.5. Is this standard?

[TenCount]

I am not sure what you are looking at.

starting labby:
Labby
15-x-26-10
10-20-26-42
x-10-10-x

After yesterday
Labby
15-x-20-10
10-20-36-52
x-10-10-x

There were two plays yesterday which COL cleared $26 from line A, Texas lost so he added $20 to line A and $20 to line B over the last two numbers. Notice 26 to 36 and 42 to 52. So He is only like a $1 off at most.

O ok I see he cleared off the 26. Thanks

[on3]

(C) TEX +105 to win 79 (since the B line is a little heavy, taking last night's loss and putting the entire amount on the C line 69+10)

[J.M. Disciple]

Cash Texas finally! I was worried and took +1.5 (-150)

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/19/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 55-2-0; Profit: +41 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 38-19; 6-1 ~ 67%, 86%
Game 2 (B) win = 8-11; 0-1; 0-0 ~ 43%, 0%
Game 3 (C) win = 9-2; 1-0; 0-0 ~ 82%, 100%

Labby
15-x-20-10
10-20-36-52
x-x-10-x
reshuffle +3.5 units added to the line
20-20-20-20
20-20-20-20
20-20-20-20

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) WSH -175 to win 40
(A) KC -190/+110 to win 40 -- play RL
(A) LAA -185 to win 40

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

KC has a potential for filtered play o/u @ 8.5 right now.

[J.M. Disciple]

Have some big B bets coming up

stl will be a play tomorrow and possibly Bos to help make back some of these A bet losses. Only worried about washington tomorrow.

Good Luck everyone.

[on3]

great night last night...let's not do that again


UPDATED for 5/20/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 55-2-0; Profit: +41 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 38-22; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-11; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 9-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
20-47-45-30
20-67-65-50
20-20-20-20

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) BOS -142 to win 47*** do not bet until it is officially a play
(A) STL -178 to win 45
(B) WSH -107 to win 70
(B) KC -187 to win 65
(B) LAA -165 to win 67

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) BOS -142 to win 20***do not bet until it is officially a play

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

Looks like only KC today (C), game is not until 8pm e.t though. A few games start early today, so had to double check. I regrettfully bet Boston yesterday. Line did go above -145, but did not close above it. Chalk up my loss into my personal labby lines and move on.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/21/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 58-2-0; Profit: +45.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 39-22; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 10-12; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 9-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
20-47-x-30
x-x-65-60
20-20-20-82

Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) KC -116 to win 102

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[fitguy67]

a word to anyone who has (but isn't in the habit of using) or can get a Matchbook.com account...

their MLB prices (AFTER commissions are removed) are outstanding...

best price anywhere right now on Royals is -114

at matchy it's -112.2 = posted -110 adjusted for their microscopic 1% tax on either winnings or losses (meaning, in effect it worsens the price by 2% over what you see, since it's 2-sided...so, multiply the neg-prices by 1.02, and the pos-prices by 0.98...to see how it stacks up vs. the other...usually very well!)

line-shopping is especially important on chases/line-clearing systems...as a good price on A leaves lower additional $overhang that carries over into B...and if it comes to a game C...a few points "saved" on your entries into A and B mean mucho dinero less you need to risk on the dreaded C (if we're talking flat-out chasing...but even if you're using lab-lines...lower prices at any stage mean less $ showing up in your cells as a result of any loss...and a lighter labby is a happier labby)

apart from the requirement for the A game to meet or exceed -145...once you're in a series, you're in, meaning you should be looking to get in as cheaply as possible for any B's and C's you must play...a stable of good books, and a good odds-comparison site (such as the freeby http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett.../mlb-baseball/) are indispensible in minimizing the painful $-drawdowns that must be endured over a season

[J.M. Disciple]

I would like to point out we need an actual unit count instead of just banking the wins. Just in case the labby does get heavy and we create a stop loss. I believe this happened once last year.