on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

[mantorras77]

Great night last night!

Today only (B) Detroit ... if I got this labby right it's Run Line to win $45 ??

[mantorras77]

Great night last night!

Today only (B) Detroit ... if I got this labby right it's Run Line to win $45 ??

EDIT: sorry just noticed ON3's post..glad I was right

[thompson182]

Anything today?

[knugen]

Come on thompson. Look 3 posts back and you have it

[Wallco99]

When the lines are close, I need a tiebreaker. That's 5dimes.

OK.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/11/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 45-2-0; Profit: +32.96 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +6 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 34-17; 5-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-9; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 7-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
29-x-x-14
x-25-15-x
x-21-10-31

Labby filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
none

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[thompson182]

Come on thompson. Look 3 posts back and you have it

Site wasn't refreshing properly for me yesterday

[mantorras77]

for today we got:

NYY -148
STL -155
LA -150
OAK -188
SEA -160

[sportscreep1]

NYY not a play cuz they play 2 at home then 2 at Mets...

[mantorras77]

NYY not a play cuz they play 2 at home then 2 at Mets...

Thx, nice catch

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/12/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 49-2-0; Profit: +32.96 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +6 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 34-17; 5-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-9; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 7-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
29-31-31-29
10-20-10-15
10-10-10-10

Labby filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) STL -152 to win 31
(A) LAD -145 to win 31
(A) OAK -186 to win 29
(A) SEA -158 to win 29

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

on3, the regular record needs to be updated. I count 49 wins, but record shows 45-2

[on3]

on3, the regular record needs to be updated. I count 49 wins, but record shows 45-2

done.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/13/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 52-2-0; Profit: +37.4 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +6 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 37-18; 5-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-9; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 7-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
x-x-26-25
10-20-10-42
10-10-10-10

Labby filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(B) STL -228/+100 to win 52 -- play RL

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

I wish I pulled trigged on that ML. Was just a little bit too much for me. Long run i do believe RL is better in terms of reducing varaince though. There are a few series that I remember from last year where Oak got swept by HOU being -200 or higher favorite each game. This year DET has been struggling at -200 favorite as well, at least this past week or so.

lets get that RL tomorrow.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/14/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 52-2-0; Profit: +37.4 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +6 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 37-18; 5-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-10; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 7-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
x-x-26-25
10-20-26-42
10-10-10-46

Labby filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) STL -185 to win 56

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

Just a fun fact provided by http://mlbsweeps.com/

ROAD TEAM SWEEPS HOME TEAM:
3 game series is (927/9278;9.9%) and a 4 game series drops to only (127/2208; 5.7%) for a combined total of 3 and 4 game series (1054 / 11486; 9.1%)

I am not sure if that extra 4.2% chasing 4 games is worth a D bet or not, but something to consider going further or for next season. Overall when combining the series only adds .8%, so hard to argue you should wager extra 10 units (via martingale) on a D bet.

Just a fun fact for the day.

STL becomes a C today since yesterday was PPD?

[mantorras77]

Just a fun fact provided by http://mlbsweeps.com/

ROAD TEAM SWEEPS HOME TEAM:
3 game series is (927/9278;9.9%) and a 4 game series drops to only (127/2208; 5.7%) for a combined total of 3 and 4 game series (1054 / 11486; 9.1%)

I am not sure if that extra 4.2% chasing 4 games is worth a D bet or not, but something to consider going further or for next season. Overall when combining the series only adds .8%, so hard to argue you should wager extra 10 units (via martingale) on a D bet.

Just a fun fact for the day.

STL becomes a C today since yesterday was PPD?

yup STL (C) today game 1

[trustandfall]

These systems for baseball are always super confusing to me, probably because I didn't grow up an avid baseball fan and haven't been betting it long..

Would it be possible on3 to include how much YOU'RE betting per game? Maybe that will help clarify how the system works to me, thanks!

[Linkan]

These systems for baseball are always super confusing to me, probably because I didn't grow up an avid baseball fan and haven't been betting it long..

Would it be possible on3 to include how much YOU'RE betting per game? Maybe that will help clarify how the system works to me, thanks!

He does, he states his line and the amount to win. just do some basicm math and youre there. If he would give the wagered amount anyone betting a different line would not get the same profit/loss..

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/15/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 52-2-0; Profit: +37.4 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units)
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +6 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 37-18; 5-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-10; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 7-2; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
15-x-26-10
10-20-26-42
10-10-10-46

Labby filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) STL -188 to win 56
(A) LAA -145 to win 36

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) LAA -145 to win 20

5/2
none

[knugen]

These systems for baseball are always super confusing to me, probably because I didn't grow up an avid baseball fan and haven't been betting it long..

Would it be possible on3 to include how much YOU'RE betting per game? Maybe that will help clarify how the system works to me, thanks!

Seriously? Can it be easier to follow.. you have everything served. Just copy his labbylines and bet exactly what On3 bet

[J.M. Disciple]

These systems for baseball are always super confusing to me, probably because I didn't grow up an avid baseball fan and haven't been betting it long..

Would it be possible on3 to include how much YOU'RE betting per game? Maybe that will help clarify how the system works to me, thanks!

Just google the labby. He does a hybrid of it with a $20 unit size. So when he is betting STL today to win 56 he is betting to win 2.8u on this game. If you have a $10 unit size then bet to win half of whatever he post. If you have bigger unit size, say $100 bet to win 5x the amount he post. Spend the night reading through the thread, most of the rules and stuff have already been explained.

Good Luck. Losing bettors refuse to read remember that.

[on3]

good hit on STL, both ML and RL

[J.M. Disciple]

stl

One more game to go. Hope no one got canceled with that pitching change.

[mantorras77]

That LAA line has been rising all day! Is worth taking a risk and putting it in now or wait til game time?

[on3]

i usually wait until closer to game time. if the line hits -155, i'd place. im seeing -147 right now.

[Trivial]

i usually wait until closer to game time. if the line hits -155, i'd place. im seeing -147 right now.

Heya on3.. What do you mean you'd place?

Appreciate your work here.

[mantorras77]

Heya on3.. What do you mean you'd place?

Appreciate your work here.

he'd place the bet!

[Trivial]

he'd place the bet!

Maybe, I'm just not understanding. I thought he did place the bet when he listed it as -145 to win 36 ?

[mantorras77]

Maybe, I'm just not understanding. I thought he did place the bet when he listed it as -145 to win 36 ?

Thats for tracking purposes only. Makes it easier for everyone to follow.

[Trivial]

Thats for tracking purposes only. Makes it easier for everyone to follow.

So how can you differentiate between a potential bet, vs. a bet that was placed? Thanks very much for your help.

[mantorras77]

So how can you differentiate between a potential bet, vs. a bet that was placed? Thanks very much for your help.

LAA is tonights pick..if the line closes at -145 or higher then place a wager on it. Check 5dimes for the line.

[mantorras77]

LAA -142 on 5Dimes right now

[J.M. Disciple]

I am seeing -143 on covers... I should of waited.... UNLESS IT WINS! HAHAHA Good luck to those who got it in. Should be an unofficial wager.