on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/3/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 103-6-0; Profit: +85.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units. -13.25 units)
Filtered System: 13-1-0; Profit: +10 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 71-38; 11-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-21; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-6; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
x-65-30-27
28-35-34-36
20-20-85-64

shuffle
30-30-30-32
38-35-34-36
45-45-45-44

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) LAA -168 to win 30
(A) OAK -151 to win 30
(A) DET -175 to win 30

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[knugen]

What about the Boston series loss?

[Legend_beatz]

What about the Boston series loss?

Tough loss, man. 3 in a row.... hurts! Dust yourself off and get right back up.

[Primet76]

Tonight was a big bounce back especially if you sprinkled some in the RL. Let's see what shakes loose tomorrow and hopefully we can get this week back or close to even.

[knugen]

But the Boston serie arent mentioned in On3 post over series losses, way?

[Mrscofield25]

But the Boston serie arent mentioned in On3 post over series losses, way?

Could the -13.25 units be Boston? Maybe he just forgot to write BOS.

[farva88]

tons of possible action today

[md3324]

EARLY GAME ALERT!!!
Washington is a play at 11:05 a.m. EST....let's get it

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/4/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 106-6-0; Profit: +90 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units. BOS -13.25 units)
Filtered System: 13-1-0; Profit: +10 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 74-38; 11-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-21; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-6; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
27-27-27-26
33-30-29-31
30-25-30-34

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) PIT -197/+115 to win 27 -- play RL
(A) CHW -156 to win 27
(A) STL -148 to win 27
(A) ATL -163 to win 26

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[Wallco99]

How come the 13.25 unit loss for Boston was never subtracted from the overall profits once that sixth loss was added in? Instead of going down 13.25, it went up 4.5 units, from +85.5 to +90.

[J.M. Disciple]

How come the 13.25 unit loss for Boston was never subtracted from the overall profits once that sixth loss was added in? Instead of going down 13.25, it went up 4.5 units, from +85.5 to +90.

On3 keeps track only by adding the wins to the profit when the series is over. If you want the total profit you have to subtract what is on the lines above $10 from the profit he has recorded.

27-27-27-26
33-30-29-31
30-25-30-34

Each number starts at $10 making the total starting labby lines at $120 ($10 x 12#s). There is $349 in play minus the $120 starting which is $229 subtracted from the profit total. 11.45 units. For those following on3's labby numbers and getting the same juice you should be up +78.55 units for the regular system. The filtered system should be accuract since it has a fresh starting labby line. Its a theory that all losses will eventually be recovered by the labby, so its easier for on3 to keep track I suppose by only adding the wins in the mean time.

I personally prefer keeping track of the overall profit day to day, but this is not my thread or my system and just thankful for the plays being posted. Besides that I have been flatting betting 2u on every play via RL last couple weeks and it has been doing quite well.

[J.M. Disciple]

Also On3 didn't list washington as a play, but it was a play and $20 should be added to the lines after today; as $20 is the standard bet for plays not listed when on3 is not here.

[sportscreep1]

Isn't Bos a play too??

[knugen]

Yes the y should be. Maybe a filtered One too

[on3]

(B) WAS -190/+115 tw 45 -- play RL. If line dips below -190, play ML

[on3]

BOS looks like it is below -145, no play

[on3]

How come the 13.25 unit loss for Boston was never subtracted from the overall profits once that sixth loss was added in? Instead of going down 13.25, it went up 4.5 units, from +85.5 to +90.

Same methodology as all previous losses. Losses stay on the line, but will be accounted for when I true it up (as I have done before, several times this year), once we hit the all-star break. The 4.5 units was from the wins on 7/3. 3 wins at 30 each (1.5 units each).

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/7/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 111-6-0; Profit: +96 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units. BOS -13.25 units)
Filtered System: 13-1-0; Profit: +10 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 78-38; 11-3
Game 2 (B) win = 18-21; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-6; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
x-x-x-14
33-30-29-x
30-25-30-34

shuffle

20-20-20-20-20-20
22-10-10-x
20-10-10-23

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) CLE -146 to win 20
(A) CIN -165 to win 20
(A) BOS -191/+100 to win 20 -- play RL
(A) STL -160 to win 20
(A) LAA -165 to win 20
(A) SEA -215/-105 to win 20 -- play RL

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) CLE -146 to win 20
(A) BOS -191/+100 to win 20 -- play RL

5/2
none

[Primet76]

Holy Shnikes!

[on3]

huge steam move on TEX, now at -150 with o/u 9.5. play to win 20 regular and play to win 20 filtered.

[mitch51]

Also On3 didn't list washington as a play, but it was a play and $20 should be added to the lines after today; as $20 is the standard bet for plays not listed when on3 is not here.

Pts for a comment made in Umps.

Ali

[on3]

Very pricey day today. If your bankroll cant handle it, please lay off. I'm splitting my bet 50/50 on the CLE ML and RL.


UPDATED for 7/8/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 115-6-0; Profit: +100 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units. BOS -13.25 units)
Filtered System: 13-1-0; Profit: +10 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 82-41; 11-7
Game 2 (B) win = 18-21; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-6; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
x-x-x-x-30-30
12-10-25-20-35
20-10-10-13

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-29-30-30

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(B) CLE +141 to win 32
(B) BOS -161 to win 35
(B) TEX -140 to win 35

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(B) CLE +141 to win 40
(B) BOS -161 to win 39
(B) TEX -140 to win 40

5/2
(B) CLE +141 to win 100
(B) BOS -161 to win 100
(B) TEX -140 to win 100

[Primet76]

If you roll with Cleveland tonight, you have bigger huevos than I. Best of luck everyone.

[farva88]

If you roll with Cleveland tonight, you have bigger huevos than I. Best of luck everyone.

LOL well said. GL all

[Wallco99]

Very pricey day today. If your bankroll cant handle it, please lay off. I'm splitting my bet 50/50 on the CLE ML and RL.


UPDATED for 7/8/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 115-6-0; Profit: +100 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units. BOS -13.25 units)
Filtered System: 13-1-0; Profit: +10 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 82-41; 11-7
Game 2 (B) win = 18-21; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-6; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
x-x-x-x-30-30
12-10-25-20-35
20-10-10-13

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-29-30-30

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(B) CLE +141 to win 32
(B) BOS -161 to win 35
(B) TEX -140 to win 35

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(B) CLE +141 to win 40
(B) BOS -161 to win 39
(B) TEX -140 to win 40

5/2
(B) CLE +141 to win 100
(B) BOS -161 to win 100
(B) TEX -140 to win 100

If you lose 30, then the next day win 30, you would be even. Yet in these situations you chalk up +1 1/2 units of win. Losses are never accounted for anywhere. A few days ago, TB lost 35 @ -153 and 65 at another high line on the A and B bets. The C bet won 81, yet you chalked up +4 units of profit for that. This +100 units for system isn't even close to accurate. Most of the monies being won back on these labby wins are amounts of monies that were lost on previous bets, yet every game that wins gets counted as +money profits instead of just money that was won back. If all the numbers start at 10, and you find yourself betting 60 or 70 on a game, the majority of that money was previous loss amounts. How can recouping them be counted as +units for the system?

[J.M. Disciple]

Should not take too long to do with on3 providing plays lines to make a quick excel file. Just list all the plays from this thread with his amounts and compare his 100 units minus what's on the line and see if it matches. some times i don't know or understand how something works just as long as it works...we had this same problem last year.

[on3]

If you lose 30, then the next day win 30, you would be even. Yet in these situations you chalk up +1 1/2 units of win. Losses are never accounted for anywhere. A few days ago, TB lost 35 @ -153 and 65 at another high line on the A and B bets. The C bet won 81, yet you chalked up +4 units of profit for that. This +100 units for system isn't even close to accurate. Most of the monies being won back on these labby wins are amounts of monies that were lost on previous bets, yet every game that wins gets counted as +money profits instead of just money that was won back. If all the numbers start at 10, and you find yourself betting 60 or 70 on a game, the majority of that money was previous loss amounts. How can recouping them be counted as +units for the system?

I account for any winning series as +1 unit. I never, not once, accounted for a (B) or (C) bet as more than 1 unit. That is simply an inaccurate statement. What I did notice was that on a handful of the (A) bets were recorded as more than +1 unit, and those were often after additional units were added to the line. I will audit the units during the all-star break because these (A) bets should have only counted for 1 unit.

There is currently $215 of losses on the labby line, or 10.75 units. That means the net result of the regular system is +89.25 units. If I use a 10 unit margin of error (I expect the error to be in the 5-6 unit range), that puts us at +79.25 units. If we were using a system without a labby line, then we would have 115 wins - 48.37 losses = +66.63 units. It makes sense that our labby system unit total is +10/+15 units higher since the majority of (A) bets are for more than 1 unit and the record for (A) bets is a little better than 66%.

If losses we NOT accounted for, then the 115 system wins would = +115 units, but that simply isn't the case. This method helps in seeing where the system stands and if it is actually progressing. Is the unit count perfect? No. But they are close, and the records are 100% accurate.

[J.M. Disciple]

What do we got today ladies? I haven't been checking scores this week. just see my account keeps going up so rolling with whatever is posted. thanks for the spoon feed.

[knugen]

We have two heavy C bets with texas and Boston.

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/9/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 116-6-0; Profit: +101 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units. BOS -13.25 units)
Filtered System: 14-1-0; Profit: +11 units
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -6.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 82-41; 11-7
Game 2 (B) win = 19-23; 2-4; 2-3
Game 3 (C) win = 15-6; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
x-x-x-x-30-30
35-25-28-35
15-15-38-38

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
x-10-10-29-30-x-63-56

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) BOS -105 to win 53
(C) TEX -200/+100 to win 53

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(C) BOS -105 to win 73
(C) TEX -200/+100 to win 66

5/2
(2) BOS -105 to win 201
(2) TEX -205 to win 180 (5/2 was only tested on ML and not RL, so ML is the official play)

[Wallco99]

I account for any winning series as +1 unit. I never, not once, accounted for a (B) or (C) bet as more than 1 unit. That is simply an inaccurate statement. What I did notice was that on a handful of the (A) bets were recorded as more than +1 unit, and those were often after additional units were added to the line. I will audit the units during the all-star break because these (A) bets should have only counted for 1 unit.

There is currently $215 of losses on the labby line, or 10.75 units. That means the net result of the regular system is +89.25 units. If I use a 10 unit margin of error (I expect the error to be in the 5-6 unit range), that puts us at +79.25 units. If we were using a system without a labby line, then we would have 115 wins - 48.37 losses = +66.63 units. It makes sense that our labby system unit total is +10/+15 units higher since the majority of (A) bets are for more than 1 unit and the record for (A) bets is a little better than 66%.

If losses we NOT accounted for, then the 115 system wins would = +115 units, but that simply isn't the case. This method helps in seeing where the system stands and if it is actually progressing. Is the unit count perfect? No. But they are close, and the records are 100% accurate.

You have to do more than just subtract the amount of money left on the lines from the units won to get your total. Because a lot of the money that was counted in the units won was just recouped money from previous losses, and these too were credited as +units on the overall profit, even if it was only +1 unit per bet as you say.

[Wallco99]

***

[Wallco99]

Should not take too long to do with on3 providing plays lines to make a quick excel file. Just list all the plays from this thread with his amounts and compare his 100 units minus what's on the line and see if it matches. some times i don't know or understand how something works just as long as it works...we had this same problem last year.

Posting the record is fine. But I don't think the +/- units should be posted since is is not close to accurate.

[J.M. Disciple]

What's the total then? Maybe ill have some time this weekend to go back through the thread and add it up. For me im just curious. As stated before i am playing all games -1.5rl and its working out very well. +odds every bet with record above 50%... Don't have t

[J.M. Disciple]

Don't have to be a genius to figure out its pretty profitable. I think doing it with a Kelly criterion hybrid would be a killer.