No time for a full post today since I'm traveling, but (A) bets today on WASH to win 36, CLE to win 40, MIL to win 40and a (B) bet on STL to win 69
on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread
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on3SBR MVP
- 08-23-10
- 2197
#316Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#317Thanks buddy, was just going to post NYY line dropped too much. Still gotta keep an eye out for it later. Similar to STL where it went to -145 then dropped then back up to like -150 before game time.Comment -
BigBankerSBR Rookie
- 03-06-13
- 48
#318every year losing systems no such thing as a winning system imoComment -
md3324SBR Hustler
- 05-24-14
- 62
#320Should also note NYY has filtered potential if it can reach -145. Currently at -130 and 9 o/u.Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#321
If it hits -145 it will be to win 40 regular and 20 filtered based on previous games being 36-40-40 there is only one other 40 left on the line.Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 05-30-14, 05:41 PM.Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#322hmmm -140 5dimes for the closing lines. Most books -145+ though... Im on them regardless for 4.8u. Good luck Not an official play.Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#323KISS STL GOOD BYE! Very surprised to see them give up that many runs this early in the game.Comment -
TrivialSBR MVP
- 11-22-09
- 1328
#324Hi Everyone,
I've tried figuring this out, but I can't find it on the first page of this thread anywhere. I would really like to understand this system some more. Is there a link that someone can point me at that I can read about it. I am intrigued. Thanks.
I see the point about the series, but I am not getting A games, B, C. Not getting filtered concepts either.
Don't understand when you say "TO WIN X regular vs. filtered". How many units is on each bet?
Any help is most graciously appreciated.
Thanks.Last edited by Trivial; 05-31-14, 06:58 AM.Comment -
on3SBR MVP
- 08-23-10
- 2197
#325(C) STL -166 to win 90Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#327Hi Everyone,
I've tried figuring this out, but I can't find it on the first page of this thread anywhere. I would really like to understand this system some more. Is there a link that someone can point me at that I can read about it. I am intrigued. Thanks.
I see the point about the series, but I am not getting A games, B, C. Not getting filtered concepts either.
Don't understand when you say "TO WIN X regular vs. filtered". How many units is on each bet?
Any help is most graciously appreciated.
Thanks.
Good LuckComment -
TrivialSBR MVP
- 11-22-09
- 1328
#3283 game home chase where "A" being game 1 of the series has a closing line of -145 or higher. If game 1 loses you bet game 2 (B), the odds on game 2 does not matter and same with game 3 (C). $90 is the amount on3 is betting to win using labby lines as you can scroll through the thread and see how the labby works. He has a $20 unit size for this thread so STL is to win 4.5u. The filtered system is same as regular system however game 1 must have a o/u of 9 or higher.
Good Luck
This is really helpful. If game 1 wins do you still bet game 2 or 3?
I dont get the filtered still. Is the moneyline odds still matter for the over under? Thanks again!Comment -
md3324SBR Hustler
- 05-24-14
- 62
#329STL is delayed...would hate to see Wacha be done for the day.Comment -
md3324SBR Hustler
- 05-24-14
- 62
#330
A series becomes a "filtered" play when the regular criteria for a series is met (a team is starting a home series with the same team of at least 3 games and they are favored by -145 or higher on game 1) AND the O/U line is set at 9 runs or higher. The closing lines on 5dimes are used for the purpose of this system/thread and tracking purposes.
There are more little idiosyncrasies along the way that you will run into during the season and sometimes you have to make your own decisions as a bettor. You stated earlier that you could not find the system parameters on page 1 of this thread. If you want to be successful in betting and specifically with this system, I suggest you go back and read the entire thread. It may take 20 mins or so but it is worth it. I just got in on this system at the beginning of the season with no prior knowledge of it so believe me when I tell you, it is all there.Last edited by md3324; 05-31-14, 03:17 PM.Comment -
Wallco99SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-01-11
- 7261
#331Well if he's been on SBR for 5 years and still doesn't know what a three game chase is he has to do a lot more than read. My god, what have you been doing for 5 years?Comment -
TrivialSBR MVP
- 11-22-09
- 1328
#332Once a game in the series is won, the series is considered a win and the betting stops, therefore; if the A game wins you do not bet on B or C. If the A game loses and the B game wins, you do not bet on C.
A series becomes a "filtered" play when the regular criteria for a series is met (a team is starting a home series with the same team of at least 3 games and they are favored by -145 or higher on game 1) AND the O/U line is set at 9 runs or higher. The closing lines on 5dimes are used for the purpose of this system/thread and tracking purposes.
There are more little idiosyncrasies along the way that you will run into during the season and sometimes you have to make your own decisions as a bettor. You stated earlier that you could not find the system parameters on page 1 of this thread. If you want to be successful in betting and specifically with this system, I suggest you go back and read the entire thread. It may take 20 mins or so but it is worth it. I just got in on this system at the beginning of the season with no prior knowledge of it so believe me when I tell you, it is all there.Comment -
TrivialSBR MVP
- 11-22-09
- 1328
#333My friend. I am mainly a football and hockey better. This is my hated time of the year where baseball has to do.Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#334Since I basically took this strategy from on3 and I remember the limit talking about a similar one a couple years back I figured I would post it and possibly help some people make some money. The labby method I was doing before seemed to be getting me in trouble. Here is what I will be doing this week after testing it for a couple of systems this week. Its a mixture of labby, martingale, and dividing your losses onto the next few series. Here is my example:
So following crusher this week I barely made .6u ($6) with crusher, burns, and on3 combined playing every single game. There was something defintely wrong with my 2 strike approach following these guys using an averaged out labby line with a tradtional method. cross 2 when you win and add 1 when you lose. If i had 2 #s on my line but had 4 games I would add 3units and six numbers to my line (.5u) per number. For some reason this strategy was not working, maybe I am dumb and it made sense in my head over a couple weeks, but what was happening was I would be down 100-200 going into the weekend almost every week then win on friday night or saturday and show a very small profit. I would reset my lines at the beginning of the week if I showed any profit. Thats the advice I got from Tgunn who post all of crusher's plays every morning. He handles stocks and told me people lose it all trying to chase the big one instead of taking the small gains. Anyways I went back over MLB plays for this week from crusher. On3 had a much better record, so I would assume I would make more with his as well.
I took a similar strategy from on3 but just using one line crusher went 16-12 and would of made 7.4u this week with the biggest bet being to win 2.7units. I just used +100 juice in my example so would of been a little higher. Anyways this is how it is laid out. Crusher has four plays just about every day. 3 side plays and one system play. I start my labby line with four numbers on it 1u per number (4u for the line)
may 26th
record: 2-2
Profit: $0
labby line: 10 10 10 10
I would take the two losses and add it to the numbers where he lost. So my line becomes 20 20 x x, the next day there are four plays again, so i would add two numbers and two units to the line. 20 20 10 10 then average it out.
may 27th
record: 3-1
Previous labby: 20 20 10 10
labby line: 15 15 15 15
Profit: +$30
again Add the game you lost to the number you were trying to cross out and your new line is 30 10 10 10 then you would average it out once more for the next day with four games. Never have more then 4 #s on your line.
When you average it out it becomes:
may 28th
record: 3-1
Previous labby: 30 10 10 10
averaged labby: 15 15 15 15
profit: $30
may 29th:
record: 2-2
Previous labby: 30 10 10 10
labby: 15 15 15 15
profit: $0
may 30th
previous labby: 30 30 10 10
averaged: 20 20 20 20
record: 2-2
profit: $0
may 31st
previous labby: 40 40 10 10
averaged: 22 22 22 22 (rounded)
record: 2-2
june 1st
prevous labby: 44 44 10 10
averaged: 27 27 27 27
record: 3-1
profit: +$54
total for the week
record: 16 wins - 12 losses
profit: $74
Let me know if this helps. Before I remember having a couple of 4 - 6 unit bets this week when I was adding multiple numbers to the line and average it out. I think keeping 4 numbers on your line works well and you could also just reset your line to a fresh one once peak profit is made on the week . Dont necessarily have to clear all four numbers via sweep for you to start a fresh line.Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#335Tomorrow we only have LAD which is probably -1.5RL since its over -190 juice depending on the closing line @ 5 dimes. STL and MIL I thought were plays but they are only 2 game home series.Comment -
LinkanSBR Rookie
- 03-31-14
- 19
#336Since I basically took this strategy from on3 and I remember the limit talking about a similar one a couple years back I figured I would post it and possibly help some people make some money. The labby method I was doing before seemed to be getting me in trouble. Here is what I will be doing this week after testing it for a couple of systems this week. Its a mixture of labby, martingale, and dividing your losses onto the next few series. Here is my example:
So following crusher this week I barely made .6u ($6) with crusher, burns, and on3 combined playing every single game. There was something defintely wrong with my 2 strike approach following these guys using an averaged out labby line with a tradtional method. cross 2 when you win and add 1 when you lose. If i had 2 #s on my line but had 4 games I would add 3units and six numbers to my line (.5u) per number. For some reason this strategy was not working, maybe I am dumb and it made sense in my head over a couple weeks, but what was happening was I would be down 100-200 going into the weekend almost every week then win on friday night or saturday and show a very small profit. I would reset my lines at the beginning of the week if I showed any profit. Thats the advice I got from Tgunn who post all of crusher's plays every morning. He handles stocks and told me people lose it all trying to chase the big one instead of taking the small gains. Anyways I went back over MLB plays for this week from crusher. On3 had a much better record, so I would assume I would make more with his as well.
I took a similar strategy from on3 but just using one line crusher went 16-12 and would of made 7.4u this week with the biggest bet being to win 2.7units. I just used +100 juice in my example so would of been a little higher. Anyways this is how it is laid out. Crusher has four plays just about every day. 3 side plays and one system play. I start my labby line with four numbers on it 1u per number (4u for the line)
may 26th
record: 2-2
Profit: $0
labby line: 10 10 10 10
I would take the two losses and add it to the numbers where he lost. So my line becomes 20 20 x x, the next day there are four plays again, so i would add two numbers and two units to the line. 20 20 10 10 then average it out.
may 27th
record: 3-1
Previous labby: 20 20 10 10
labby line: 15 15 15 15
Profit: +$30
again Add the game you lost to the number you were trying to cross out and your new line is 30 10 10 10 then you would average it out once more for the next day with four games. Never have more then 4 #s on your line.
When you average it out it becomes:
may 28th
record: 3-1
Previous labby: 30 10 10 10
averaged labby: 15 15 15 15
profit: $30
may 29th:
record: 2-2
Previous labby: 30 10 10 10
labby: 15 15 15 15
profit: $0
may 30th
previous labby: 30 30 10 10
averaged: 20 20 20 20
record: 2-2
profit: $0
may 31st
previous labby: 40 40 10 10
averaged: 22 22 22 22 (rounded)
record: 2-2
june 1st
prevous labby: 44 44 10 10
averaged: 27 27 27 27
record: 3-1
profit: +$54
total for the week
record: 16 wins - 12 losses
profit: $74
Let me know if this helps. Before I remember having a couple of 4 - 6 unit bets this week when I was adding multiple numbers to the line and average it out. I think keeping 4 numbers on your line works well and you could also just reset your line to a fresh one once peak profit is made on the week . Dont necessarily have to clear all four numbers via sweep for you to start a fresh line.
1. You only have 1 line for all bets (A, B, C).
2. The starting line consist of 4 numbers, each representing 1 unit.
3. Each bet placed is to win ONE number on the line.
4. A loss is added to the number the losing bet was trying to win.
5. Every day, before making the bets, the line is reset to 4 numbers by averaging the previous days results + adding 1 unit for each crossed number the previo day.
questions:
If you have 2 numbers on your line before making plays for the day (going 2-2 the day before). And you will place 5 bets, you would add 3 units + averaging over all 5?
If you only have 1 play for the day, it i is still to win number out of 4?Last edited by Linkan; 06-02-14, 06:31 AM.Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#337So if i understand you correctly:
1. You only have 1 line for all bets (A, B, C).
2. The starting line consist of 4 numbers, each representing 1 unit.
3. Each bet placed is to win ONE number on the line.
4. A loss is added to the number the losing bet was trying to win.
5. Every day, before making the bets, the line is reset to 4 numbers by averaging the previous days results + adding 1 unit for each crossed number the previo day.
questions:
If you have 2 numbers on your line before making plays for the day (going 2-2 the day before). And you will place 5 bets, you would add 3 units + averaging over all 5?
If you only have 1 play for the day, it i is still to win number out of 4?
Question #2 yes, I will start each day with four numbers whether its 4 plays or 1 play. Its pretty similiar to what on3 is doing except I am just using 1 line and averaging out over the line instead of splitting half the loss over 1 line and half loss over another line. It is a little more of an aggressive approach I suppose. Usually this system will never have more then 5 plays though. Four is just the number I chose, you can do less or more, but from a pretty high win percentage with this system four should be fine. I personally would not go more then 6 numbers on a line.
As you can see my example was applied from crusher's system this week, so can really be applied to any system. Its just a money management strategy really. Its not full proof as you seen last years thread things got a little crazy little after all star break if I remember correctly. Would definitely have a stop loss where I would reset my line if it got too heavy or split it among other systems.
Thanks for for breaking it down into a summary thoughAppreciate it.
AustinComment -
on3SBR MVP
- 08-23-10
- 2197
#338UPDATED for 6/2/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 69-3-0; Profit: +57.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 46-26; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-14; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 11-3; 1-0; 0-0
Labby
70-x-x-x
x-50-48-69
30-20-20-x
shuffle
30-25-25-30
30-30-38-39
30-20-20-20
Labby filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) LAD -186 to win 30
Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none
5/2
noneLast edited by on3; 06-02-14, 02:57 PM.Comment -
LinkanSBR Rookie
- 03-31-14
- 19
#339On3: MIL shouldnt be a play should it? only 2 game homestand and then 2 games in Minnesota..
JM: Thanks for sharing your system, i will try using it for a while since i've had the same feeling as you described in the presentatation of your thoughts.Comment -
hagball52SBR MVP
- 09-22-10
- 3053
#340Why is Milwaukee a play? They're doing a 2 and 2, home and away.Comment -
on3SBR MVP
- 08-23-10
- 2197
#342youre right. i fixed the post. thanks for double checking.Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#344yes, I personally bet -1.5 at my book since it was at -191. I am guessing on3 got it early in the reduced section at 5 dimes. It is graded as as final line anyways, so he can adjust later.Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#346Nice with on LAD tonight. Up to bat we have Wash and COL, with COL being a filtered play as well. Looking like a promising week.Comment -
knugenSBR MVP
- 12-09-09
- 2612
#348And Atlanta?Comment -
on3SBR MVP
- 08-23-10
- 2197
#350UPDATED for 6/3/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 70-3-0; Profit: +58.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 47-26; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-14; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 11-3; 1-0; 0-0
Labby
30-25-25-x
30-30-38-39
30-20-20-20
Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10
Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) COL -155 to win 30
(A) WSH -186 to win 25
Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) COL -155 to win 20
5/2
noneComment
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