Keel's Baseball Action

**keel44** · 08-01-14, 06:19 PM

I actually surpassed my winning goal of $14.79 units. There are 2 reasons.

Number 1 is that my chasing and pressing is calculated to win at least (3) 3-1 parlays in a row. All of my parlays are over that - quite a bit over in some cases.

Number 2 is that I did not finish a "C" and "B" wager. I saw I was up over 10 units and decided to cut and start over.

My fury of wins got me a total profit of +25.17 with the highest bet not being any more than 0.44 unit of my "own" money. I use "house" money to surge ahead in profits. I am totally sold on the idea. I am going to be betting this way for everything going forward. I will use my very average handicapping skills and when I get hot enough, I will jump ahead in profits.

The parlay project won me +25.17 units not 10.38. 10.38 units is what my profit was on the whole season. I would like 20 units for the whole year. I am confident in my money management system. I urge you to follow along.

**keel44** · 08-01-14, 06:22 PM

http://keel44.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

**keel44** · 08-02-14, 10:28 AM

August 1

Parlay 02-A: Yankees with Phillies +1.5 (0.21 to win 0.66)
Parlay 03-A: Marlins with Pirates -1.5 (0.21 to win 0.76)
Parlay 04-A: Cubs with Brewers +1.5 (0.21 to win 0.66)
Parlay 05-A: Giants with Astros Over 8.5 (0.21 to win 0.65)

(0.21x3)+(0.20) = 0.83 These are my losses. We add to my target of 10 units = 10.83. Now divide by 48.
0.23. That is our new risk amount going forward.

**keel44** · 08-02-14, 10:52 AM

August 2

Parlay 04-B: White Sox FF with Orioles FF -0.5 (0.66 to win 2.06)
Parlay 06-A: Mets with Braves -1.5 (0.23 to win 0.80)
Parlay 07-A: Rangers with Blue Jays (0.23 to win 0.79)

**keel44** · 08-03-14, 12:18 AM

August 2

Parlay 04-B: White Sox FF with Orioles FF -0.5 (0.66 to win 2.06)
Parlay 06-A: Mets with Braves -1.5 (0.23 to win 0.80)
Parlay 07-A: Rangers with Blue Jays (0.23 to win 0.79)

The 0.66 loss does not get added in to our profit target because it was from previous winnings.

0.24 unit wagers going forward...

**keel44** · 08-03-14, 10:29 AM

August 3

Parlay 08-A: Cardinals with Phillies (0.24 to win 0.75)
Parlay 09-A: Blue Jays -1.5 with White Sox -1.5 (0.24 to win 0.75)
Parlay 10-A: Braves with Over 6.5 (0.24 to win 0.76)

**fitguy67** · 08-03-14, 12:58 PM

with you every pull of the way

gl2us

**fitguy67** · 08-03-14, 07:28 PM

frakkin' braves

**keel44** · 08-03-14, 10:32 PM

August 3

Parlay 08-A: Cardinals with Phillies (0.24 to win 0.75)
Parlay 09-A: Blue Jays -1.5 with White Sox -1.5 (0.24 to win 0.75)
Parlay 10-A: Braves with Over 6.5 (0.24 to win 0.76)

My new risk amount going forward is 0.25 unit

I want you fitguy and everyone to know, I am not just throwing bets out there at random or forcing plays. The plays are handicapped by me. I am not a great handicapper, but I have my good runs just like everyone else. I have been gambling on sports for 17 years.

Hey Fitguy, my unit size is 2% of my total bank. What is yours? We are going for 10 units. That is 20% ROI for me. I already have 20% ROI. So I hope to finish the season with 40% ROI.

**fitguy67** · 08-04-14, 09:43 AM

it turn out i've also set my bank for this project at 50 bullets...meaning each is 2% of the store and the target 10 bullets means a 20% increase

i'm following along because i like the format...bets generally very small and only get serious when it's with house money...

i also like the steady yet subdued loss-recuperating method you employ...everything comes down to money and time...most "chasing" protocols try to gain their revenge for previous losses far too rapidly always thinking that a regressive turn "must be around the corner" which is nonsense statistically and suicide financially...your chase is more of a "biding your time" with sensibly escalated betsizes until the inevitable regression eventually comes when it comes...it won't cover an obscenely extreme run of plays hitting at much below their implied rate for a very long time...but nothing would

i'm sold on this method...AND it's fun...here's to the next ABC run that makes it all worthwhile happening well before we get uncomfortably low on bullets...

looking forward to the next instalment of plays...bets are so small if they don't hit u don't care much...like Edison didn't care much when an idea for a lightbulb didn't work out...but when one does it's anticipation time, knowing you have a ticket in the semi-final of a two-stage (1 ticket drawn out of 5) draw for the big prize...which is why i was so pissed at the Braves last night...they cost us entry into the "two free spins" bonuis round that this is all about

**keel44** · 08-04-14, 10:31 AM

You get it Fitguy67. Every handicapper has their ups and downs. I believe this strategy can really exploit the ups and can certainly ride out the downs. By using "house" money, it is a great low-risk high-reward scenario. Then when you throw in the chase element, you can still profit way down the line.

**keel44** · 08-04-14, 10:47 AM

August 4

Parlay 11-A: Reds +1.5 with Tigers -1.5 (0.25 to win 0.76)
Parlay 12-A: Angels with Over 6.5 (0.25 to win 0.82)

**fitguy67** · 08-05-14, 12:56 AM

faak...three night's in a row we were really close (on the very last game of the evening) to graduating to the BC bonus-round...

good luck (aka. sampling variance) tomorrow!!

**keel44** · 08-05-14, 10:55 AM

August 4

Parlay 11-A: Reds +1.5 with Tigers -1.5 (0.25 to win 0.76)
Parlay 12-A: Angels with Over 6.5 (0.25 to win 0.82)

2.51 in total losses + profit target of 10 = 12.51/48 = 0.26 risk amount going forward

It took 25 attempts last go round.

**keel44** · 08-05-14, 01:18 PM

August 5

Parlay 13-A: Reds with Padres (0.26 to win 0.80)
Parlay 14-A: Yankees Over 7.5 with Astros -1.5 (0.26 to win 1.01)
Parlay 15-A: Rays with Dodgers -1.5 (0.26 to win 0.80)
Parlay 16-A: Cubs with Astros Over 7.5 (0.26 to win 0.78)

**HappyKane** · 08-06-14, 04:21 AM

BOL

**keel44** · 08-06-14, 10:29 AM

August 5

Parlay 13-A: Reds with Padres (0.26 to win 0.80)
Parlay 14-A: Yankees Over 7.5 with Astros -1.5 (0.26 to win 1.01)
Parlay 15-A: Rays with Dodgers -1.5 (0.26 to win 0.80)
Parlay 16-A: Cubs with Astros Over 7.5 (0.26 to win 0.78)

O.K. I am in a 1 for 17 parlay slump. That just means a few wins are around the corner. I am only down 3.55 units after all of that. New risk amount only jumped to 0.28. Plenty of opportunities left.

**keel44** · 08-06-14, 10:49 AM

August 6

Parlay 17-A: Mariners with Over 7 (0.28 to win 0.91)
Parlay 18-A: Cubs with Marlins (0.28 to win 0.85)
Parlay 19-A: Orioles with Angels -1.5 (0.28 to win 0.92)

**fitguy67** · 08-06-14, 07:09 PM

congrats on getting us our first free entry (in a while) into the "pick 2 consecutive +300-or-higher MLB parlays for all the marbles" round...

and we have a chance for two more before the night is through as well...we're now 2 of last 18...3 or even 4 out of 20 would be very reasonable considering the 20-25% rate implied by the parlay odds you've been playing...the more B-tickets we win today the better...come'on cubbies, fish, O's and halO's

gluk as always keel (in addition to making sense from the standpoint of bet-sizing/applied probability...this has to be the most "fun" sports-betting protocol i've ever come across...like a +ev slot machine with baseball games determining the spins)

**fitguy67** · 08-06-14, 09:10 PM

faak...looks like just 2 out of the last 20 it is...two good things about that...

1. it's character-building (helps to cultivate patience=the longer-term perspective regarding things statistical necessary for success in this "hobby")

2. hmmm...it's impossible to write anything here without mentioning the dreaded "d" word...so i can't give the second thing the elucidation it's DUE

...

hmmm...i know...since we're "short" two parlay wins out of the last 20...the universe OWES us two, right?...hmmm, would be nice if it paid up quickly "on demand"...as in the upcoming B and C bets

(no need to correct me...i'm intentionally being silly...)...at least tomorrow'll have some long-awaited B-bet pizzaz

**keel44** · 08-06-14, 10:33 PM

We might have a "B" bet. We shall see. I am starting to regret some of my recent picks. I learned in the past, you can't have regrets. I need to rethink my picks and combinations. One thing is certain, I am focusing too much on the pitchers lately. I will make the mental adjustments and get better.

I believe this make you a better handicapper. You can make picks without worry because you feel you have so many chances. The pressure is off. This gives you plenty of time to make adjustments mentally on your picks. Right now, I need a subtle change of perspective on the match-ups and the combination of games.

**keel44** · 08-06-14, 10:36 PM

August 6

Parlay 17-A: Mariners with Over 7 (0.28 to win 0.91)
Parlay 18-A: Cubs with Marlins (0.28 to win 0.85)
Parlay 19-A: Orioles with Angels -1.5 (0.28 to win 0.92)

Any new attempts will be risking 0.29

**keel44** · 08-07-14, 11:23 AM

August 7

Parlay 17-B: Indians with Over 7.5 (0.91 to win 2.93)
Parlay 20-A: Mets +1.5 with White Sox (0.29 to win 0.87)
Parlay 21-A: Indians Over 7.5 with A's with Cardinals (0.29 to win 0.90)

**BarstoolProphet** · 08-07-14, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by keel44

We might have a "B" bet. We shall see. I am starting to regret some of my recent picks. I learned in the past, you can't have regrets. I need to rethink my picks and combinations. One thing is certain, I am focusing too much on the pitchers lately. I will make the mental adjustments and get better.

I believe this make you a better handicapper. You can make picks without worry because you feel you have so many chances. The pressure is off. This gives you plenty of time to make adjustments mentally on your picks. Right now, I need a subtle change of perspective on the match-ups and the combination of games.

Keel totally agree with you on this concept. also good point the other day on my high priced selections, I tend not to like them either but it is a system and the numbers dictated it.

About your selections, I think you might benefit a bit more on semi correlated bets, for example taking the side along with its total. Rather than being correct about 2 entirely different games.

Like your Cleveland bet with its over, good choice. If for what reasons you base your side bet on, then apply the same logic as to how that translates into the total. Odds are if you were spot on with the side the total will fall into place as well.

This is how I tend to take heavy favorites on the ML rather than the RL with its Under instead, to bring down the odds. The logic is for example when C.Kershaw pitches the opposing pitcher has something to prove , even if they are crap. they tend to bring their very best against the best. So instead of taking the Dodgers on the RL I will Take them on the ML and the UNDER. SO a 2-1 result is a winner.

I think you should review all your previous sides and then make a hindsight 20/20 call on what you think would have been you total bet on that selection and see how your results would have improved.

**keel44** · 08-07-14, 10:35 PM

August 7

Parlay 17-B: Indians with Over 7.5 (0.91 to win 2.93)
Parlay 20-A: Mets +1.5 with White Sox (0.29 to win 0.87)
Parlay 21-A: Indians Over 7.5 with A's with Cardinals (0.29 to win 0.90)

Hey, no complaints. That's the way it is. I got tons o' chances. I probably got the whole month to make a 10 unit profit. I'll just keep firing away.

I am down -4.69 units. 0.31 going forward

**keel44** · 08-07-14, 10:41 PM

Barstool. You are indeed right and I started doing only that. My problem was, I was getting the underdog to win, but my total wouldn't hit. It was frustrating. I will keep zeroing in. I am only 2-21 in my parlays, and I have only lost 4.69 units. I am O.K. with that. I will start to worry when I am down 12 or so.

**keel44** · 08-08-14, 11:56 AM

August 8

Parlay 22-A: White Sox with Under 6.5 (0.31 to win 1.14)
Parlay 23-A: Dodgers with Under 8.5 (0.31 to win 1.07)
Parlay 24-A: Cardinals with Over 8.5 (0.31 to win 1.06)
Parlay 25-A: Blue Jays with Under 8 (0.31 to win 0.94)

**Emancipator** · 08-08-14, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by keel44

Barstool. You are indeed right and I started doing only that. My problem was, I was getting the underdog to win, but my total wouldn't hit. It was frustrating. I will keep zeroing in. I am only 2-21 in my parlays, and I have only lost 4.69 units. I am O.K. with that. I will start to worry when I am down 12 or so.

Pocking favs I would generally look at the Over and Underdogs for the Under.

**fitguy67** · 08-08-14, 12:31 PM

amazing stats for this bet-sizing protocol so far

10-43, +20.48u = 75% of the 27.31u risked (note an average risk of only 0.52u)

almost all of the profit (+18.55u) coming from one "C" hit on the 29th play (before this was 6-22, after which an ice-cold 3-21)

despite an overall hit-rate of just 18.9% that's very poor vs the 23.3% implied by the overall avg price of +330 (27.31u risked was targeting 90.13u) the yield remains at a super-healthy 75% even after this terrible sub-15% drought on the last 24 plays

______________

everything comes down to whether or not we hit (even very rarely) the odd "C" bet we generate...just the one we hit in the first 53 plays is enough to much more than offset a crappy well-below implied hit rate...

seems like one "C" hit may be enough to offset (aka. "finance") a hundred or more pulls on the parlay machine...

but just as yields for single-play video poker always come down to the frequency of royal-flushes...here everything hinges on getting the next "C" hit before the thankfully-slow erosion of units wears the bank down...

...it also appears that a few B-hits might help out quite a bit as well (just as 4oK's in vid-poker help the player substantially to bide his time waiting for the RF)...2 of the 6 hits before the big-C hit on #29 were back-2-back B's on #26/27 and this was enough to nicely reverse the yield from negative to positive...more on this below

__________

this is a hi-variance method...BUT a lo-betsize method...we've risked just 27units over 53 plays...the hi-variance part shows up in a good way...the ability to reverse the accumulated unit-erosion of dozens of crappy days with just a short burst of good results...

after which the "lo-betsize" part kicks in to resist the subsequent erosion (hopefully till another blast of positive variance arrives and gets magnified by the "hi-variance" part)...rinse/lather/repeat...

like this...
after #25 (4-21). yield= -34.84% = -3.93/ 11.28
after #26 (B-win) yield = +10.01% = +1.28 / 12.79
after #27 (B-win) yield = +39.94% = +5.62 / 14.07
after #28 (A-loss) yield = +35.79% = +5.19 / 14.5
after #29 (C-win) yield = +117.99% = +23.74 / 20.12
...
after #53 (10-43) yield = +74.99% = +20.48 / 27.31

...where to next?

that's where the fun comes in...and it doesn't cost too much to stay strapped in for the "very likely profitable...but if not...we got more than our sport-betting money's worth" ride

lotsa small-risk

plays with a few big-payout

plays = a good way to pass the MLB days

**keel44** · 08-08-14, 05:59 PM

You did a real nice post for me Fitguy67.

One could think of it like the reverse of a 6 game martingale type chase. Instead of chasing to win 1 out of 6, you gotta win 6 in a row. The extra bonus here is it does not have to be in a row exactly, you can take some more attempts in between presses. Also, you do chase the scenario of winning 6 in a row. You have the best of both worlds -- the benefits of pressing and the benefits of chasing.

**keel44** · 08-08-14, 06:03 PM

Keep in mind, I was going for a 14.79 profit. Then I hit the big "C". Now I am going for a 10 unit profit. The unit sizes started bigger than they would assuming a clean slate.

**fitguy67** · 08-08-14, 08:16 PM

yeah...i think aiming for 20% per "project" as you've setteled into now is just about perfect...

50 unit Bank...target 10 units which is 20% of bank...starting play 1/50th of that target = 1/5th unit (or 0.20u...where each unit is 2% or 1/50th of Bank)......nice n' symmetrical (all 0's, 1's, 2s and 5's)...all the fibonacci numbers except 3 (which is covered by the number of consecutive times you gotta hit to successfully finish the project)...

estimating the target jackpot to be 50x the starting play is closer to whatever it actually might turn out to be than 48x (which i understand is based on hitting 3 consecutive plays at EXACTLY the MINIMUM +300 odds after holding back the first play's stake)...BUT 50 is so much more elegant here in that "perfect fit" kind of way

**keel44** · 08-08-14, 10:43 PM

August 8

Parlay 22-A: White Sox with Under 6.5 (0.31 to win 1.14)
Parlay 23-A: Dodgers with Under 8.5 (0.31 to win 1.07)
Parlay 24-A: Cardinals with Over 8.5 (0.31 to win 1.06)
Parlay 25-A: Blue Jays with Under 8 (0.31 to win 0.94)

0.33 risk amount going forward

**fitguy67** · 08-08-14, 11:59 PM

now 3-25 since last C-hit (an 11% rate on plays with a book rate we're paying for of 23%) ...the universe officially "owes" us some joy...and we "deserve" it cuz we've been SO reasonable in our expectations and SO patient...

whatever plays you select for this project keel, it's ultimately up to this fooking universe/multi-verse to line up the unfoldng of things in such a way that puts a higher rate of "Ws" in general (...and at least one "WWW" string in particular) into our reality

gluk2us2moro

**keel44** · 08-09-14, 11:45 AM

August 9

Parlay 26-A: Indians with Angels -1.5 (0.33 to win 1.00)
Parlay 27-A: Reds -1.5 with Phillies Over 7 (0.33 to win 1.25)
Parlay 28-A: Phillies -1.5 with Reds Under 8 (0.33 to win 1.00)
Parlay 29-A: Padres with Brewers Under 7.5 (0.33 to win 1.19)
Parlay 30-A: Brewers with Padres Over 7 (0.33 to win 1.03)