Keel's Baseball Action

[keel44]

August 9

Parlay 26-A: Indians with Angels -1.5 (0.33 to win 1.00)
Parlay 27-A: Reds -1.5 with Phillies Over 7 (0.33 to win 1.25)
Parlay 28-A: Phillies -1.5 with Reds Under 8 (0.33 to win 1.00)
Parlay 29-A: Padres with Brewers Under 7.5 (0.33 to win 1.19)
Parlay 30-A: Brewers with Padres Over 7 (0.33 to win 1.03)

Risk amount going forward will be 0.34 units.

3-29 in parlays this go-round. Just over 9%.

[keel44]

August 10

Parlay 31-A: Reds -1.5 with Tigers -1.5 (0.34 to win 1.05)
Parlay 29-B: Mets with Cardinals (1.19 to win 3.71)

[fitguy67]

got it...it's funny how if you use the word "due" people will jump all over you...so i turn it around and say the universe OWES us some joy to counteract this ridiculous 3-29 spell...

would you ante up $100, say on a proposition with a payout of, say 20-1 or $2000...where ALL you had to do was pick at least 29 or more losing bets out of 32 bets with a payout no less than +300...i wouldn't...no amount of skill would help...you'd have to rely on the same sort of extreme "luck" that we've been subjected to lately...

STILL, despite the beyond-dreadful results over the last 32 plays...we've given up only 6.06u from the peak of +25.17u(after the July30 action)...and full project results now stand 11-51, +19.11u (+63.28% of the 30.2 risked over the 62 plays)

[keel44]

Well, I look at it like a handicappers win percentage based on straight wagers. You figure the average odds to be maybe +105 per game. I should be able to hit 48.5% overall. Quite frankly, everyone should be able to hit that eventually.

So if I slump for a while well under 48.5% of straight wagers, then I should get a turn around. When I get that turn around, I need to be risking more to make up previous losses. Using this strategy, when I do risk more, it is from previous winnings. I am not digging a hole deeper. The only question is, how long will I be in a slump? When do I pull the plug and start over? Maybe I change from a 3-1 minimum payout to a 2-1 minimum payout?

Any thoughts?

[fitguy67]

all depends on your "stomach" for a bumpy ride...

for me, a higher-variance (bumpier) ride is both more profitable and character-building

how well the method has withstood an unsustainably-dreadful drought encourages me...that and the knowledge of what a single "C" can do...

the % picks will move up toward 20% long before the time-/unit-resources dry up...and when that happens we'll get enough multi-B days to ensure eventual success (but it won't always be comfortable...it's a lot like drawing to a four-flush...won't convert for two dozen hands...then several in a row)

you COULD drop the +300 threshold to say +250...but it's a tradeoff...the drawdown that must be recovered will rise accordingly...as will the play-sizes required to recoup it at lower payout...

a little simulation would help to compare going say 3-29 at average odds of +330 like we just did, and something comparable like 5-27 at average odds of +260

(i suspect that we're compensated handsomely in small ToBeRecouped balances-->the longevity of the project hinges upon our patience/"willingness to endure" which is directly linked to the altitude of the odds we insist upon)...conversely: lower odds...bigger TBR...fewer pulls on the machine before we must say "uncle"...

_____________

...volatility is a double edged sword...willingness to endure it breeds ability to endure it in the form of "smaller losses per pull = more pulls"

i fear that pussying out on the willingness to endure by trying to hasten the hits will concommitantly hasten the arrival of the "uncle" point we hope to avoid...

it ain't broke (we're nowhere even near that uncle point after an apparently dreadful run)...our target's 10u...we've only given up 6u since our last reboot, despite the horrendous hit-rate...i say don't even think about tinkering unless/until that turns to, say, 15 down....which i'd doubt happens before we get at least a half-dozen more cracks at a "C"

(if there is a time to consider lowering our price a bit...it's on the "C" bets themselves...after say 5 unsuccessful C's and we're getting antsy about the drawdown, try to "nudge" things a bit in our favor with a +240 play which would roughly mean lowering our target gain from 10 to 8...)...as the dry-C's mount...we can get less & less greedy/more and more willing to settle for a push on the project)

problem so far tho hasn't been dry Cs...it's far too few C's, even Bs...

plenty of bullets remain...units erode so slowly we can still afford the luxury of a "curiosity-" rather than "fear-" driven attitude

[fitguy67]

the mets have to be the most predictably un-clutch team in MLB...5-run lead after 5...eroded to 1-run after 8, of course...do you think for just once they could actually...uh, you know, what's that called now...yeah, "hold"...why not, yeah "hold" the lead...got a nice ring to it...gotta try that sometime...eh, maybe next time...

update:

it's not that these guys aren't trying to win...or even don't "want" to win...it's much more fundamental than that...i don't even think they've even thought about the concept of winning one way or the other...it's just something that happens to them occasionally--and quite unintentionally when it does

at the salaries these "professionals" are paid...jail time should be served...seriously

THAT was brutal...

[keel44]

Really tough loss, gotta keep grinding.....

[keel44]

August 10

Parlay 31-A: Reds -1.5 with Tigers -1.5 (0.34 to win 1.05)
Parlay 29-B: Mets with Cardinals (1.19 to win 3.71)

[fitguy67]

August 10

Parlay 31-A: Reds -1.5 with Tigers -1.5 (0.34 to win 1.05)
Parlay 29-B: Mets with Cardinals (1.19 to win 3.71)

since re-setting with a 50u bank on July 31: 3-31, but down only 7.59u (an obviously large%, 67.9%, of the tiny 11.17u played at average odds +323.81)

hitting under 10% like this on plays with an implied win% of over 23% is amazing...and unsustainable in the long term...the statistician advises us to be ready for increased yet randomly-scattered days richer in Ws than the drought conditions we've been getting used to recently ...keep your "money umbrellas" handy for sudden showers as regression kicks in, bringing multi-B, even multi-C pressure fronts into the drought-sticken region

___________________

...the statistician was heard muttering under his breath as the camera pulled away for a commercial break...sounded a lot like "fukking mets"...

[keel44]

Let's not forget the Tigers blew it too. I was the most satisfied with my plays today more than any other, but no win.

[fitguy67]

and that's the 2nd time in a few days the mets just pissed a parlay away for us...u just had'em +1.5 and they gave up a walk-off 2-run homer in the bottom half of extra -innings ("urge to kill"...sports betting's a funny thing tho' & u can't carry grudges or u'll have no sides left to bet on...and Murphy's Law will put the team you just banned on a heater)

doesn't matter tho'...a win-rich spell will kick in...lotta B's comin' and enough cracks at C to nail another one shut for the good guys

if ur covering 1-9 in 37-number roulette u can easily go 3-34 ("short" 6 wins from expected)...but it can't/won't keep up that way...and by 74 spins will be closer to expected 18-56 than to "more of the same" 6-68...and by #111 will be MUCH closer to 27 wins than 9...

today was REALLY a piss-off but a compensating stretch of results is coming which'll give us plenty of chances to close out this bastard...and we got plenty of bullets left to keep taking our small calibre shots...whole idea behind the method...and it's working just fine (far better than i'd imagine anything'd do with just 40% of the wins implied by the odds)

_____________

believe it or not...i am "enjoying" this head-bangin' eye-rollin' character-building 3-31 spell...have the feeling this'll be one of those defining "war stories" once we come out the other side...

onward

[keel44]

August 11

Parlay 32-A: Phillies with Over 8 (0.37 to win 1.15)
Parlay 33-A: Braves -1.5 with Padres (0.37 to win 1.16)

[keel44]

I am looking for an automatic bet selection for this. Leave my handicapping out of it....I just don't know if there is one.

[fitguy67]

here's a protocol to generate all the same-game (ML*OU) plays as close to +300 without going under...each iteration will spin out combinations that are of increasing-payout (hence less likely as implied by the book)...

look at the whole card and combine using ONE book(eg.5d/b365/local)'s price-offerings as the sole arbiter to prevent madness...(bet 365 may be a good one here...as they are one of the few online books that actually allow these same-game ML-OU combos to be played...i've always figured u play yours thru a local)

*the ML dog as close to +110 (without going under)
along with
*the total on the same game closest to -110 (without going more negative than that)

that's parlay #1...now look at remaining games on card and repeat this process until any parlays created would result in odds greater than some maximum threshold (eg. +350 seems like a good ballpark figure for the first few whacks at this) is exceeded

[keel44]

August 11

Parlay 32-A: Phillies with Over 8 (0.37 to win 1.15)
Parlay 33-A: Braves -1.5 with Padres (0.37 to win 1.16)

0.38 going forward. I'll never give up!

[fitguy67]

un-freakin' believable "think you had a cold spell?" war-story brewing (hopefully fully-brewed by now!)...3-33...just 9% on parlays with implied 23% hit-rate...

easy to remember ain't it...3-33...on the bright side only 8.33u of the 50u bank has evaporated during this drought of biblical proportions...

best attitude is amazement at this "bad news-good news" anecdote...and treat tomorrow as just another day

[keel44]

Hey Fitguy, last year at this time, I had a eerily similar horrendous run. I tried an experiment with raising stakes on underdogs. Check out the thread and check out post #79 for my final straight up win percentage.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/2481976-keel44s-underdog-system-p3.html

[keel44]

August 12

Parlay 34-A: Padres with Nationals with A's (0.38 to win 1.44)
Parlay 35-A: Rangers with White Sox (0.38 to win 1.16)
Parlay 36-A: D-backs with Red Sox +1.5 (0.38 to win 1.14)

[fitguy67]

nyy game officially aborted

[fitguy67]

keel, interesting read on a straight-up version of the same drought that has hit your picks almost exactly one calendar year apart...

whatever you do, do NOT change your normal picking m.o one iota...

we got ourselves a 37-slot roulette wheel that's turned up the 9-numbers we blocked out just 3 times (instead of the expected 9 times) in the last cycle

now is not the time to change anything about how we configure that block of chips...

____________

once this round from hell is over...i suggest we switch to auto-selection for 2 main reasons...
*won't do any better or worse than agonizing over the choice (aka. more efficient)
*eliminates the emotional overhang (won't feel any pride over winners...so no angst over losers either)

the approach i outline in an above post (or something along those lines) could do nicely in churning out min+300 2-leggers...with a little fine-tuning of the upper-bound (say taking all generated up to/including +350) we could get something that has a similar frequency of plays (about 4/day)...but with no mess/no guess/no stress...

___________

but for the time being...forget about the drought and produce the plays exactly as normal...don't "try extra hard" or in any way "fade" yourself with an extra layer of quality control...

this damn slot machine is way past its median number of spins required to spill out something nice...so keep pulling as close to the same way as you can emulate...

____________

when this baby is in bed tho' i like the idea of automating (instead of agonizing over) the actual pulls...if they were auto-plays we'd just consider this an extreme sample...but when you're more invested in the pulls it creates this objectively ridiculous yet subjectively palpable feeling of "being cursed"...

[keel44]

Good post as usual Mr. fitguy. I haven't changed how I make my picks in years. I look at what makes sense from my knowledge of the sport and knowledge of "value" in sports betting. I want an automated picking process, but not because of "emotional" reasons. I want something that could give me those 3 in a row winners or a batch of "A" bet winners. I'll keep thinking and studying.

You see, I figure "my" handicapping could produce more winners than random sometimes. When it does, we shall surge ahead in profits. It is looking like I don't know what I think I know.

[the1outlaw]

I am intrigued by this experiment and have considered jumping aboard...just haven't pulled the trigger yet. Seems like it would work in theory...

[keel44]

Jump in now. I am bound to turn it around. Just take what you would like to profit and divide by 48. Add any losses to your target amount and divide by 48. Use my plays....if ya like.

[fitguy67]

you only add in the losses on "A" plays right?...i know if an A play -0.3/+0.90 wins...the "B" play that flows from it will hold back the 0.3 originally staked on the A...and risk just the 0.9won (that's the part you'll "press" your luck with)...if that B play, say -0.9/+2.70 wins...then the whole 3.6 would continue the press into the "C" bet, such as -3.6/+10.8

here's the question: if either that "B" or "C" bet lose...no additional amounts are added to the amount to be recovered (the number you divide by 48 to give you your next "A" risk), right?...as the full "BC-press" (however far it goes) is fully off-the-accounts "house money"...

so in the example above where the A -0.3/+0.9 play loses...then 0.3 is added to the $-backlog...but if it wins, nothing is added to the backlog as the 0.3u is put back into the bank before the BD-press begins, right?

so whatever happens on the subsequent BC part of things can have only one of two possible results...either a Zero-effect if either bet loses...or, if both B&C should hit in succession==>a BIG project-completing payout!

thot' i'd take the opportunity to run the way i've come to grasp "the method behind the madness" by you...it seems to make a LOT of sense once you overcome the initial "what the hell is going on here" reaction

[keel44]

Yes. You are are right Fitguy67. 1st attempt losses are the only losses to our bankroll we have.

[fitguy67]

WTF, texas had a guy on 3rd with just 1 out in bottom of the 13th for god sakes...

game over at any level of baseball from little-league on up where fundamentals are emphasized...

nobody bunts anymore? or beneath the dignity of overpaid flyball-dropping idiots who injure themselves sliding and swing at pitches bouncing 2 feet in front of the plate

[fitguy67]

i was about to celebrate "2.5 winnah's...everything hit except ARZ ppd"...then notice that after anguishing over TEX to score in the 13th and 14th with RISP and less than 2 outs...successfully (winning run finally walked in)...

that the freaking white sox blew their 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 9th and we're in extreeeee innings again......only to win it in the 10th

_____________

2.5 winnah's outa 3

[keel44]

August 12

Parlay 34-A: Padres with Nationals with A's (0.38 to win 1.44)
Parlay 35-A: Rangers with White Sox (0.38 to win 1.16)
Parlay 36-A: D-backs with Red Sox +1.5 (0.38 to win 1.14)

We have won 0.20 units with the Red Sox +1.5. I have to win a straight wager risking 0.58 on a bet +162 or greater in order to complete the parlay win amount.

[the1outlaw]

Good day to pull the handle on the slot machine...FREE SPIN time!

[keel44]

August 13

Parlay 34-B: White Sox with Brewers (1.44 to win 4.32)
Parlay 36-A: Red Sox +1.5 with Tigers -1.5 (0.38 to win 1.19)
Parlay 37-A: Red Sox with Under 7.5 (0.38 to win 1.17)

[keel44]

The White Sox are the play today given the current trends. Daytime at SF gotta favor HR potential from the Sox.

[keel44]

No complaints, but Skip Schumaker and the Reds pitcher hit solo HRs. PLEASE. The score should be Red Sox 5-2.

[keel44]

August 13

Parlay 34-B: White Sox with Brewers (1.44 to win 4.32)
Parlay 36-A: Red Sox +1.5 with Tigers -1.5 (0.38 to win 1.19)
Parlay 37-A: Red Sox with Under 7.5 (0.38 to win 1.17)

Tough losses. We lose a "B" and win an "A"

[fitguy67]

which creates another "B"...so we now have 2 unplayed B-tickets available for tomorrow, just like we did at the start of today... (one door closes, another opens...)

(altho having a C lined up woulda' definittely been better, we've had so few "things to look on the bright side of" lately, thot i'd identify that silver lining)...
_____________

keel, whaddya' think about ending this set of MLB-picks a few weeks BEFORE the end of the MLB season (or right after the next C-hit, depending on the relative timing)...you know to sidestep that weird "twilight zone" period full of "magic numbers" for some teams with playoff hopes and "experiments for next year"/questionable motivations for most without

...and rolling into another sport's regular season... like NHL (which i love and think is the most MLB-like betting wise) or NBA (which i despise for how the popular spread-/total-bets become helpless "sitting ducks" for all kinds of "amazing" horseshit, especially but not confined to the late-game and/or "garbage time" varieties)...

anyhow, if ur not a hockey person, i'd be happy to spit out the +300ish plays required to run an NHL version once that season gets into its 4th week...and i'd still tail you on any NBA-version of this project if you decide to go that route (but i will never watch another minute of that "bouncy-ball with zebras and notebook-computers" crap...i decided this on the spot after the 6th "game" of the 2012-2013 final and have happily stuck to it...)

[keel44]

I have a slimmed down version for the NFL and a slightly slimmed down version for the NBA. I don't know hockey. I feel a handicapper making picks is better than relying on pro teams' performance or other voodoo. It is just sometimes my handicapping is spot on and other times it just isn't. I do plan to end in September for the reasons you say and because of football starting.

By the way, I feel the last 3 days, I am in the zone.


NFL will be three (2-1) mininum payout parlay press. That is a 18-1 (minimum) scenario

1 --> 2
2 --> 4
6 --> 12

That will allow me to buy points off of key numbers at a -135



NBA is three (2.6 - 1) parlay press. That is a (33.69 - 1) scenario