Keel's Baseball Action

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  • keel44
    SBR MVP
    • 08-01-09
    • 3363
    #351
    August 14

    Parlay 38-A: Rays -1.5 with Reds Under 9.5 (0.38 to win 1.22)
    Parlay 35-B: Brewers with Red Sox -1.5 (1.16 to win 3.65)
      Comment
      • fitguy67
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-13-11
        • 5082
        #352
        deal me in...no other way in hell i'd play either of those two overly-interrupted/overly-bureaucratic (and in the case of "foot"ball, overly-manned/overly-padded...cf rugby where same handful of guys in gym shorts go all out non-stop for the full 80 minutes) sports...

        hate NBA/NFL...but love your "subdued chase/aggressive press" method...and love units
        Last edited by fitguy67; 08-14-14, 12:46 PM.
          Comment
          • keel44
            SBR MVP
            • 08-01-09
            • 3363
            #353
            August 14

            Parlay 38-A: Rays -1.5 with Reds Under 9.5 (0.38 to win 1.22)
            Parlay 35-B: Brewers with Red Sox -1.5 (1.16 to win 3.65)

            We have a "C" wager. Started out 3-33 of parlays....now I am in a 4-3 run.
              Comment
              • fitguy67
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 03-13-11
                • 5082
                #354
                  Comment
                  • keel44
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-01-09
                    • 3363
                    #355
                    August 15

                    Parlay 39-A: Mariners with Under 8.5 (0.39 to win 1.21)
                    Parlay 36-B: Indians with Nationals -1.5 (1.19 to win 3.67)
                    Parlay 35-C: Mets with Angels with Royals (4.81 to win 15.66)
                      Comment
                      • keel44
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-01-09
                        • 3363
                        #356
                        Wow! 2 losses from 1 meaningless run in the 9th inning in each game. Let us hope it doesn't matter. 1 more inning to go for the Angels and Royals.
                          Comment
                          • fitguy67
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 03-13-11
                            • 5082
                            #357
                            bang! and bang! and

                            fortune favors the faithful (...but only the persistently faithfully)...well played, sir!
                              Comment
                              • keel44
                                SBR MVP
                                • 08-01-09
                                • 3363
                                #358
                                O.K. right on!

                                1st attempt was from July 23-July30
                                Profit Target: 14.79 units
                                Actual Profit: 25.17 units
                                2 abandoned parlay runs
                                8-22 (26.67 %) parlay percentage

                                2nd attempt was from July 31 - August 15
                                Profit Target: 10 units
                                Actual Profit: 10.99 units
                                0 abandon parlay runs
                                8-38 (17.39%) parlay percentage

                                1 Unit = 2% of total bankroll
                                No absurd units risked on games. As a matter of fact, the total at risk is very low.

                                _______________________

                                I have been posting plays in my thread since the beginning of the year trying an assortment of things. I got my parlay program to not only save my season, but get me over 20 units in overall profits.

                                1 unit = 2% of total bank

                                My average amount of risk per play for the whole year was only an average of 1.09 units. For the parlay project it was only an average of 0.57 units risked per play.
                                  Comment
                                  • keel44
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-01-09
                                    • 3363
                                    #359
                                    August 15

                                    Parlay 39-A: Mariners with Under 8.5 (0.39 to win 1.21)
                                    Parlay 36-B: Indians with Nationals -1.5 (1.19 to win 3.67)
                                    Parlay 35-C: Mets with Angels with Royals (4.81 to win 15.66)

                                    +10.99 units for the attempt
                                    +21.37 units on the whole season

                                    http://keel44.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/


                                    I am going to lock in 20 units profit for baseball, which means I have 1.37 units to use. I will now run my parlay project to try and win 5 units. I will pull the plug if I lose 1.37 units overall.

                                    I will be running a NFL thread using my parlay step ladder strategy. I hope people will hop a board.
                                    Last edited by keel44; 08-15-14, 11:33 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • keel44
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-01-09
                                        • 3363
                                        #360
                                        New goal is 5 units without losing anymore than 1.37 units overall. 5 units divide by 48 gives you a beginning risk amount of 0.10 units.

                                        August 16

                                        Parlay 01-A: White Sox with Braves Over 6.5 (0.10 to win 0.33)
                                        Parlay 02-A: Braves with Padres (0.10 to win 0.31)
                                        Parlay 03-A: Red Sox -1.5 with Orioles Over 8.5 (0.10 to win 0.30)
                                          Comment
                                          • keel44
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-01-09
                                            • 3363
                                            #361
                                            August 16

                                            Parlay 01-A: White Sox with Braves Over 6.5 (0.10 to win 0.33)
                                            Parlay 02-A: Braves with Padres (0.10 to win 0.31)
                                            Parlay 03-A: Red Sox -1.5 with Orioles Over 8.5 (0.10 to win 0.30)
                                              Comment
                                              • keel44
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-01-09
                                                • 3363
                                                #362
                                                August 17

                                                Parlay 04-A: Rangers with Marlins (0.11 to win 0.33)
                                                Parlay 05-A: Brewers with Over 8 (0.11 to win 0.34)
                                                Parlay 02-B: Nationals -1.5 with Braves +1.5 (0.31 to win 0.97)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • keel44
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                    • 3363
                                                    #363
                                                    August 17

                                                    Parlay 04-A: Rangers with Marlins (0.11 to win 0.33)
                                                    Parlay 05-A: Brewers with Over 8 (0.11 to win 0.34)
                                                    Parlay 02-B: Nationals -1.5 with Braves +1.5 (0.31 to win 0.97)

                                                    Nationals give up 3 in the 9th ---- oh well such things happen.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fitguy67
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-13-11
                                                        • 5082
                                                        #364
                                                        one door closes...two open ...

                                                          Comment
                                                          • keel44
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                            • 3363
                                                            #365
                                                            August 18

                                                            Parlay 04-B: Nationals -1.5 with White Sox -1.5 (0.33 to win 1.15)
                                                            Parlay 06-A: Angels -1.5 with Braves (0.11 to win 0.37)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • keel44
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                • 3363
                                                                #366
                                                                August 18

                                                                Parlay 04-B: Nationals -1.5 with White Sox -1.5 (0.33 to win 1.15)
                                                                Parlay 06-A: Angels -1.5 with Braves (0.11 to win 0.37)


                                                                I'll take it...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • keel44
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                    • 3363
                                                                    #367
                                                                    August 19

                                                                    Parlay 05-B: Braves with Angels (0.34 to win 1.07)
                                                                    Parlay 07-A: Phillies with Dodgers (0.11 to win 0.40)
                                                                    Parlay 08-A: Brewers with Marlins with Yankees (0.11 to win 0.37)
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • keel44
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                        • 3363
                                                                        #368
                                                                        August 19

                                                                        Parlay 05-B: Braves with Angels (0.34 to win 1.07)
                                                                        Parlay 07-A: Phillies with Dodgers (0.11 to win 0.40)
                                                                        Parlay 08-A: Brewers with Marlins with Yankees (0.11 to win 0.37)

                                                                        Nice day
                                                                          Comment
                                                                          • keel44
                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                            • 3363
                                                                            #369
                                                                            August 20

                                                                            Parlay 06-B: Braves with Orioles -1.5 (0.37 to win 1.16)
                                                                            Parlay 09-A: Rangers with Over 7.5 (0.12 to win 0.42)
                                                                              Comment
                                                                              • fitguy67
                                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                • 03-13-11
                                                                                • 5082
                                                                                #370
                                                                                i like the way you play your "B" and "C" cards judiciously...noticed how you won two Bs on sunday and spread them out over the next two days (the first one dying Monday and the second one turning into the C you created yesterday)...and instead of playing the C u created yesterday, u'r instead playing a B that was created on Monday...and saving that "C" for just the right day/play

                                                                                many/most would just fire away with whatever plays pop up next and ramp up the hopefulness for the larger calibre plays...but i can see that u've developed the policy of making an effort to not "waste" them on any old play just good enough for an A...no, you hold onto them and wait to match them carefully..the Bs will get assigned to something you deem extra good...and the Cs will have to wait for for something EXTRA extra good...

                                                                                may fortune continue to favor the patient and prudent
                                                                                Last edited by fitguy67; 08-20-14, 09:41 PM.
                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                  • keel44
                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                                    • 3363
                                                                                    #371
                                                                                    August 20

                                                                                    Parlay 06-B: Braves with Orioles -1.5 (0.37 to win 1.16)
                                                                                    Parlay 09-A: Rangers with Over 7.5 (0.12 to win 0.42)

                                                                                    I'll take it. I am actually making small gains of late.
                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                        #372
                                                                                        I was ice cold and turned to red hot. That is the exact expectation with my money management strategy. I can't wait to try this all year long with NBA and NFL. I gonna put it to the test !

                                                                                        July 23--August 11 = (11-55) 16.67% Parlay Percentage (3-1 min. payout)
                                                                                        August 12--August 20 = (11-12) 47.83% Parlay Percentage (3-1 min. payout)

                                                                                        I made 37.57 units since July 23. These are real units here. 2% of total bankroll = 1 unit.
                                                                                        Average risk amount is 0.51 unit. Crazy stuff !
                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                          • fitguy67
                                                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                            • 03-13-11
                                                                                            • 5082
                                                                                            #373
                                                                                            Originally posted by keel44
                                                                                            I have a slimmed down version for the NFL and a slightly slimmed down version for the NBA. I don't know hockey. I feel a handicapper making picks is better than relying on pro teams' performance or other voodoo. It is just sometimes my handicapping is spot on and other times it just isn't. I do plan to end in September for the reasons you say and because of football starting.

                                                                                            By the way, I feel the last 3 days, I am in the zone.


                                                                                            NFL will be three (2-1) mininum payout parlay press. That is a 18-1 (minimum) scenario

                                                                                            1 --> 2
                                                                                            2 --> 4
                                                                                            6 --> 12

                                                                                            That will allow me to buy points off of key numbers at a -135



                                                                                            NBA is three (2.6 - 1) parlay press. That is a (33.69 - 1) scenario
                                                                                            i'm looking forward to these, keel...be sure to notify/link us to the spinoff threads when they start
                                                                                            Last edited by fitguy67; 08-21-14, 01:33 AM.
                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                              • the1outlaw
                                                                                                SBR Hustler
                                                                                                • 09-25-13
                                                                                                • 83
                                                                                                #374
                                                                                                I would think you could do the same with the NHL as well...maybe use one or two of the better NHL cappers in the forum for some of the picks?
                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                  • keel44
                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                                                    • 3363
                                                                                                    #375
                                                                                                    Originally posted by the1outlaw
                                                                                                    I would think you could do the same with the NHL as well...maybe use one or two of the better NHL cappers in the forum for some of the picks?
                                                                                                    It is certainly possible, but it is much easier to rely on yourself and not have to hunt down picks. I also find that people who post on here don't keep it up the whole season. Anyway, who do you follow? I'll just stick to what I know. I know MLB, NBA, NFL.
                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                                        #376
                                                                                                        August 21

                                                                                                        Parlay 05-C: Braves with Indians with Giants (1.41 to win 4.91)
                                                                                                        Parlay 09-B: Red Sox with Indians Under 7 (0.42 to win 1.26)
                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                          • keel44
                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                                                            • 3363
                                                                                                            #377
                                                                                                            August 21

                                                                                                            Parlay 05-C: Braves with Indians with Giants (1.41 to win 4.91)
                                                                                                            Parlay 09-B: Red Sox with Indians Under 7 (0.42 to win 1.26)

                                                                                                            No regrets....things happen

                                                                                                            -0.42 units down overall ...... no biggie
                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                              • keel44
                                                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                • 3363
                                                                                                                #378
                                                                                                                August 22

                                                                                                                Parlay 10-A: Blue Jays with Brewers -1.5 (0.12 to win 0.41)
                                                                                                                Parlay 11-A: Angels with Marlins (0.12 to win 0.38)
                                                                                                                Parlay 12-A: Cardinals -1.5 with Mets (0.12 to win 0.39)
                                                                                                                Parlay 13-A: Braves with Padres (0.12 to win 0.36)
                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                  • the1outlaw
                                                                                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                                                                                    • 09-25-13
                                                                                                                    • 83
                                                                                                                    #379
                                                                                                                    Originally posted by keel44
                                                                                                                    August 22

                                                                                                                    Parlay 10-A: Blue Jays with Brewers -1.5 (0.12 to win 0.41)
                                                                                                                    Parlay 11-A: Angels with Marlins (0.12 to win 0.38)
                                                                                                                    Parlay 12-A: Cardinals -1.5 with Mets (0.12 to win 0.39)
                                                                                                                    Parlay 13-A: Braves with Padres (0.12 to win 0.36)
                                                                                                                    I like all of these but the Padres....tailing anyway to get these B's
                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                                                        #380
                                                                                                                        August 22

                                                                                                                        Parlay 10-A: Blue Jays with Brewers -1.5 (0.12 to win 0.41)
                                                                                                                        Parlay 11-A: Angels with Marlins (0.12 to win 0.38)
                                                                                                                        Parlay 12-A: Cardinals -1.5 with Mets (0.12 to win 0.39)
                                                                                                                        Parlay 13-A: Braves with Padres (0.12 to win 0.36)
                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                          • keel44
                                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                            • 3363
                                                                                                                            #381
                                                                                                                            August 23

                                                                                                                            Parlay 14-A: Angels with Nationals (0.13 to win 0.39)
                                                                                                                            Parlay 15-A: Brewers -1.5 with Braves (0.11 to win 0.39)


                                                                                                                            That is it for today. I am about to pull the plug on the season. I want to preserve a 20 unit profit from this baseball season. I will start a new thread for the NFL season starting in week 1.
                                                                                                                            Last edited by keel44; 08-23-14, 11:01 AM.
                                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                                              • keel44
                                                                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                                • 3363
                                                                                                                                #382
                                                                                                                                August 23

                                                                                                                                Parlay 14-A: Angels with Nationals (0.13 to win 0.39)
                                                                                                                                Parlay 15-A: Brewers -1.5 with Braves (0.11 to win 0.39)
                                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                                  • keel44
                                                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                                    • 3363
                                                                                                                                    #383
                                                                                                                                    August 24

                                                                                                                                    Parlay 16-A: Angels with Brewers Under 8.5 (0.115 to win 0.36)
                                                                                                                                    Parlay 17-A: Braves with White Sox -1.5 (0.115 to win 0.37)

                                                                                                                                    If I lose these 2, I would have lost only 1.37 units, but that will put me at exactly 20 units of profit for baseball. I will stop here. This was just a bonus attempt to gain some more units with small risk. You can clearly see the power of this strategy.....many attempts to get hot enough to catapult your money into big profits.
                                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                                                                        #384
                                                                                                                                        August 24

                                                                                                                                        Parlay 16-A: Angels with Brewers Under 8.5 (0.115 to win 0.36)
                                                                                                                                        Parlay 17-A: Braves with White Sox -1.5 (0.115 to win 0.37)

                                                                                                                                        One last shot in the tank !
                                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                                          • keel44
                                                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                                            • 3363
                                                                                                                                            #385
                                                                                                                                            August 25

                                                                                                                                            Parlay 16-B: Marlins with Padres +1.5 (0.36 to win 1.12)
                                                                                                                                              Comment
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