Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[TodaysAction]

With my joke of a day, I am done with the baseball season. There is no need to post any more plays and fill this thread with losers. Good luck to the rest of you

Don't let the bump sour you. You've started to approach the corner, make the turn and bring it home with units overflowing.

[shoebox]

Tried to tweak it and went 0-4, thanks for the advice TA ill stick to my guns....

[TodaysAction]

A LOT of upsets yesterday; don't know what happened. Today's card involves some records after losses. Maybe today Terry and I will have some picks. Not all of these are RAL based. Today I specifically want TA's opinion on the card. Plays are already in, but let me know what you think here.

Here's what I've got:
Giants -1 +105 (2 units)
White Sox -1 +123 (1.5 units)
Boston +1 +130 (1 unit)
Marlins +180 (.5 units)
Baltimore +180 (.5 units)
LAA -1.5 +135 (3 units)
LAA -158 (1.5 units)
Cubs +125 (.5 units)
Astros -105 (.5 units)
Padres -1.5 +150 (.5 units)
LAD -1.5 +130 (.5 units)
Rays -137 (1.5 units)

No opinion right now as the roof of a tenant is leaking pretty bad, we've got it plugged for now but are waiting on supplies being delivered. Once that gets under control/resolved I'll be more than happy to look it over. Only thing I have "in" right now is what will be listed shortly.

[TodaysAction]

Tried to tweak it and went 0-4, thanks for the advice TA ill stick to my guns....

You're welcome. Just ride it out. We both know you're better than you're recent results.

[TodaysAction]

TOR,

More later if able.

[TodaysAction]

AZ, , DET, CWS,
AZ, STL, DET, CWS,
WA, , DET, CWS,
WA, STL, DET, CWS,

[Spaceviews]

Nice way to start the day T.A.!!!!!!!! Break a Leg with the rest of your selections today!!!!!!

[TodaysAction]

FL/PHI,

AZ,
DET,
CWS,

[TodaysAction]

Nice way to start the day T.A.!!!!!!!! Break a Leg with the rest of your selections today!!!!!!

Thank you Spaceviews. Hope your money makes you some tonight too.

[MexicanStallion]

Don't let the bump sour you. You've started to approach the corner, make the turn and bring it home with units overflowing.

I can't do it. I don't have enough winning days in a row. I am terrible with baseball, so there is no reason I continue.

[TodaysAction]

Originally Posted by therber2
Analyzing the Run Line
Many of you love betting the Run Line, especially with the heavy favorites because of the reduced chalk. In fact, you can turn a -150 Money Line Favorite into a Run Line Underdog. The reduced juice keeps your risk low.
The oddsmakers use the standard fact that 70% of Winners beat the Run Line to calculate the Run Line odds.
The first thing I wanted to test was how teams with a certain money line odds performed on the Run Line. Is there a correlation between the odds a team has and how it performs against the run line.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

League Wide: 72.5%
+200 or more: 70.2%
+190s: 77.0%
+180s: 76.4%
+170s: 67.4%
+160s: 75.3%
+150s: 72.9%
+140s: 70.9%
+130s: 73.5%
+120s: 68.0%
+110s: 72.4%
+100s: 72.9%
-100s: 68.9%
-110s: 70.6%
-120s: 72.4%
-130s: 72.4%
-140s: 74.7%
-150s: 74.5%
-160s: 75.3%
-170s: 71.9%
-180s: 70.8%
-190s: 77.5%
-200s: 76.2%
Favorites that are -120 or better beat the runline at a higher percentage than the league average (73.6%). In fact, this indicates that betting the runline on these teams will generally be better than betting the money line. Turn these favorites into a dog.


Nevertheless, a more striking point worth noting is the Home-Away Dynamics of the Run Line.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%
Road Favorites better than -120: 80.1%
Analyzing it further, we see that Road Teams in the Money Line Odds range of better than -120 specified in our earlier table beat the Run Line 80% of the time when conditioned on winning the game. There is a 10% difference in covering the Run Line for the Road Team than for the Home Team.
The reason for this is quite simple: Home Teams that win the game do not have to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Road teams that win the game still bat in the Top of the 9th. That means the Road winner has 12.5% more at-bats than the corresponding home favorite.
Let us statistically model this scenario to show us how it works. During any half inning, the expected value of runs scored is 0.5. This means that the expected value of number of half innings necessary to score 1 full run would be approximately every 2 half innings. The home teams beats the Run Line with a 70% probability. This means that for every 100 games, they are ahead by more than 1 run going into bottom of the 9th 70 times and only ahead by 1 run going into the bottom half of the 9th 30 times. Since the home team wins, there is no need to bat in the 9th. Conversely, for the road team, they will be batting all 100 of those times. Of those 30 times, the expected number of games for them to score an extra run necessary to beat the run line is 15. This is an increase of 15%!! Reality only shows a 10% improvement and this can be explained by the fact that although the average number of runs per half innings is 0.5. They will not be spreading 1 run every 2 games. They will be held scoreless about 66% of the time and for the remaining 33% of the time score 1 or more runs.


http://www.easybaseballbetting.com/r..._analysis.html

------------------

If/when you get the chance to break it down by teams, you'll find a few nice gems surrounded by "crap". Don't know why it breaks that way each season but it does, until you're comfortable with it go quarter uniting with follow ups as needed.

[TodaysAction]

I can't do it. I don't have enough winning days in a row. I am terrible with baseball, so there is no reason I continue.

That's a shame you've lost your confidence but I can understand it. It's not cut and dry like some other sports. I've worked through it with minor adjustments until things got back where they belong. Something I was shown/taught years back was if/when you call it quits on the regular season before it completes, go back and look at your wagers and see what ones worked and didn't, the ones that didn't take a deeper look and see why - there is always at least one common element/factor why a group of wagers did not work. when you find it, back test it several season to make certain it's not a 'one hit wonder'.

To me baseball is one of the easier sports to make money. here's a portion as to why: match-ups (just like basketball player verses player), weather (like football/soccer/horse racing certain athletes do better in certain conditions), since there are many games a season won doesn't need to hit 54% flat bet wagers to turn a small profit (I'm hitting around 51% and up a decent amount). There are multiple other reasons but ultimately each person has to know when enough is enough.


Thank you for your contributions to the thread this season. Congrats on going out with positive units and know you're welcome in any seasonal (or other) thread I start.

Don't forget hockey is not that far away.

[TodaysAction]

Goin for broke <--- WHY?

[COLOR=#000000 ! important]A LOT of upsets yesterday; don't know what happened. Today's card involves some records after losses. Maybe today Terry and I will have some picks. Not all of these are RAL based. Today I specifically want TA's opinion on the card. Plays are already in, but let me know what you think here.

Here's what I've got:
Giants -1 +105 (2 units) +
White Sox -1 +123 (1.5 units) went money-line
Boston +1 +130 (1 unit) in progress, no comment
Marlins +180 (.5 units) -
Baltimore +180 (.5 units) game completed, I was on TOR
LAA -1.5 +135 (3 units) +
LAA -158 (1.5 units) +
Cubs +125 (.5 units) -
Astros -105 (.5 units) -
Padres -1.5 +150 (.5 units) -
LAD -1.5 +130 (.5 units) +
Rays -137 (1.5 units) -
[/COLOR]
__________________
Record (MLB since May): 118-96-2 55.1% (+43.81 units)
Last edited by therber2; Today at 10:29 AM..

+ = agree with selection but may or may not have wagers on it
- = disagree with selection and may or may not have wagers on it

[MexicanStallion]

That's a shame you've lost your confidence but I can understand it. It's not cut and dry like some other sports. I've worked through it with minor adjustments until things got back where they belong. Something I was shown/taught years back was if/when you call it quits on the regular season before it completes, go back and look at your wagers and see what ones worked and didn't, the ones that didn't take a deeper look and see why - there is always at least one common element/factor why a group of wagers did not work. when you find it, back test it several season to make certain it's not a 'one hit wonder'.

To me baseball is one of the easier sports to make money. here's a portion as to why: match-ups (just like basketball player verses player), weather (like football/soccer/horse racing certain athletes do better in certain conditions), since there are many games a season won doesn't need to hit 54% flat bet wagers to turn a small profit (I'm hitting around 51% and up a decent amount). There are multiple other reasons but ultimately each person has to know when enough is enough.


Thank you for your contributions to the thread this season. Congrats on going out with positive units and know you're welcome in any seasonal (or other) thread I start.

Don't forget hockey is not that far away.

Thank you for your comments. I will probably make a few bets, so I can finish in the red for the season. It would only be fitting with how much I lose. It would truly write off a perfect season and a waste of the 2 months posting. I may as well tail you with every selection, because I blow with everything I do.

[Spaceviews]

GOOD CALL WITH FLA!!!!!!!!! Can't win it any quicker than that!!!!! Tailed it- Cashed it
THANX AGAIN T.A.!!!

[therber2]

Goin for broke <--- WHY?

[COLOR=#000000 ! important]A LOT of upsets yesterday; don't know what happened. Today's card involves some records after losses. Maybe today Terry and I will have some picks. Not all of these are RAL based. Today I specifically want TA's opinion on the card. Plays are already in, but let me know what you think here.

Here's what I've got:
Giants -1 +105 (2 units) +
White Sox -1 +123 (1.5 units) went money-line
Boston +1 +130 (1 unit) in progress, no comment
Marlins +180 (.5 units) -
Baltimore +180 (.5 units) game completed, I was on TOR
LAA -1.5 +135 (3 units) +
LAA -158 (1.5 units) +
Cubs +125 (.5 units) -
Astros -105 (.5 units) -
Padres -1.5 +150 (.5 units) -
LAD -1.5 +130 (.5 units) +
Rays -137 (1.5 units) -
[/color]
__________________
Record (MLB since May): 118-96-2 55.1% (+43.81 units)
Last edited by therber2; Today at 10:29 AM..

+ = agree with selection but may or may not have wagers on it
- = disagree with selection and may or may not have wagers on it

LOL. Going for gold **correction. Thanks so much for your opinions. I just want to know how much you take RAL into account. I think every good capper has a hierarchy of importance for their factors. This season have you been strict with that or would you say you are constantly adapting?

[dvb02]

If you don't mind me asking, what is RAL?

[TodaysAction]

GOOD CALL WITH FLA!!!!!!!!! Can't win it any quicker than that!!!!! Tailed it- Cashed it
THANX AGAIN T.A.!!!

Glad you and others were able to cash from it Spaceviews.

[TodaysAction]

If you don't mind me asking, what is RAL?

Good evening dvb02,

Read the post above your original post (the one you asked the question) to seek the answer you're after.

[TodaysAction]

LOL. Going for gold **correction. Thanks so much for your opinions. I just want to know how much you take RAL into account. I think every good capper has a hierarchy of importance for their factors. This season have you been strict with that or would you say you are constantly adapting?

At least that makes more sense. No problem, that was the threads 'free pass', somewhat surprised a similar question (many games) wasn't asked earlier this season. It's one of the many factors used in the selection process. I do not use the same weight for each factor but know even the one's with less weight are needed for how I do things - might not be how others do it (fine with me) but it works on this end. Each factor has a range so that when "it" is going either really well it automatically increases and when "it" isn't the weight is lessened.

[TodaysAction]

Let's see how things are shaking out:

Here's what I've got:
Giants -1 +105 (2 units) + WINNER
White Sox -1 +123 (1.5 units) went money-line In progress
Boston +1 +130 (1 unit) in progress, no comment Lost
Marlins +180 (.5 units) - In progress
Baltimore +180 (.5 units) game completed, I was on TOR - we split
LAA -1.5 +135 (3 units) + Lost
LAA -158 (1.5 units) + WINNER
Cubs +125 (.5 units) - In progress
Astros -105 (.5 units) - In progress
Padres -1.5 +150 (.5 units) - Hasn't started yet
LAD -1.5 +130 (.5 units) + Hasn't started yet
Rays -137 (1.5 units) - Hasn't started yet

2-1 on the games agreed upon with a pair pending.

[dvb02]

Good evening dvb02,

Read the post above your original post (the one you asked the question) to seek the answer you're after.

aaaahhhhh.....I read right over it 3 times and did not catch it. Thanks

[TodaysAction]

A LOT of upsets yesterday; don't know what happened. Today's card involves some records after losses. Maybe today Terry and I will have some picks. Not all of these are RAL based. Today I specifically want TA's opinion on the card. Plays are already in, but let me know what you think here.

Here's what I've got:
Giants -1 +105 (2 units)
White Sox -1 +123 (1.5 units)
Boston +1 +130 (1 unit)
Marlins +180 (.5 units)
Baltimore +180 (.5 units)
LAA -1.5 +135 (3 units)
LAA -158 (1.5 units)
Cubs +125 (.5 units)
Astros -105 (.5 units)
Padres -1.5 +150 (.5 units)
LAD -1.5 +130 (.5 units)
Rays -137 (1.5 units)

If you don't mind me asking, what is RAL?

aaaahhhhh.....I read right over it 3 times and did not catch it. Thanks

Use your eyes, see if you can find RAL in the first quot. If you can't, sorry I can't assist you with this any further. If you did, read the second statement prior to it. Not complicated. Need some reading glasses do you?

[dvb02]

Use your eyes, see if you can find RAL in the first quot. If you can't, sorry I can't assist you with this any further. If you did, read the second statement prior to it. Not complicated. Need some reading glasses do you?

No, I meant it took me the fourth time to catch it. thanks

[TodaysAction]

No, I meant it took me the fourth time to catch it. thanks

Sorry dvb02, I must have misinterpreted your post. Happens sometimes while on the phone and found out somebody's large wager lost and they might need help in collecting it - the guy is down over four grand. Why do people do stupid like that (wager above their means)? No need to answer.

[TodaysAction]

Saturdays' ten selections went 3-7-0 but added 13.50 units.

[ujacol]

haha wow how did that happen?! way to goo ta

[dvb02]

Saturdays' ten selections went 3-7-0 but added 13.50 units.

Nice job once again

[MexicanStallion]

Saturdays' ten selections went 3-7-0 but added 13.50 units.

The usual. Congrats

[therber2]

A LOT of upsets yesterday; don't know what happened. Today's card involves some records after losses. Maybe today Terry and I will have some picks. Not all of these are RAL based. Today I specifically want TA's opinion on the card. Plays are already in, but let me know what you think here.

Here's what I've got:
Giants -1 +105 (2 units)
White Sox -1 +123 (1.5 units)
Boston +1 +130 (1 unit)
Marlins +180 (.5 units)
Baltimore +180 (.5 units)
LAA -1.5 +135 (3 units)
LAA -158 (1.5 units)
Cubs +125 (.5 units)
Astros -105 (.5 units)
Padres -1.5 +150 (.5 units)
LAD -1.5 +130 (.5 units)
Rays -137 (1.5 units)

7-5 +3.72 units

[therber2]

Saturdays' ten selections went 3-7-0 but added 13.50 units.

Wouldn't mind a record like that one. No plays today folks, a bit busy. TA thanks for looking at my card. The simple thumbs up thumbs down shed a bit of light on things

[MexicanStallion]

7-5 +3.72 units

Nice work here as well.

[TodaysAction]

PIT,
AZ,
DET,

[shoebox]

GL Terry, great job as usual....

[TodaysAction]

SF,