Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[MexicanStallion]

August 7th
Blue Jays -206 (8.24 to win 4)
Blue Jays RL +100 (2 to win 2)
Cardinals -225 (9 to win 4)
Cardinals RL -135 (2.7 to win 2)

[BamaBill67]

Tailing TA today...I had most of what he had written last night, just put my own twist with the parlay and str8 bets. GL all

[VegasPlayer]

Quote:
Originally Posted by VegasPlayer
Good afternoon to you TA. I didn't mean to imply that I live by parlays. In my opinion they are pretty risky. I played yours very small and I just wanted to say it was a nice bonus to have them hit. I believe in flat betting a small % and it's been working real well this year, especially with some of the advice I've been getting from this source.

Good morning VegasPlayer,

They are but at times can build one's roll quickly if they find the correct combinations that have a chance. Glad you were able to cash the pair. Happy your way is working for you. When everyone contributes to the thread it can trigger a spark and gets things moving in a good way. Continued success this season.

Thanks. Gonna read thru the posts and figure out your symbols. Wasn't quite sure what they all meant so I'll try and confirm. Going to 4 day weeks starting Monday (2 days and 2 swings) so I'll have some time to cap and attempt to contribute before the East Coast plays start.

[curious]

Adding:
FL/PHI UNDER
Houston
Houstin/Milw UNDER
Rockies 3x bet your usual bet size
Padres
Angels 2x bet your usual bet size
Dodgers
Mariners
Giants
White Sox
Seattle UNDER

Some of these may already be listed in the other post

I also took Arizona but that game already started

[Nickelicious]

August 7th
Blue Jays -206 (8.24 to win 4)
Blue Jays RL +100 (2 to win 2)
Cardinals -225 (9 to win 4)
Cardinals RL -135 (2.7 to win 2)

Me likey! BOL MS, I think you got a sweep workin' here!

[MexicanStallion]

Me likey! BOL MS, I think you got a sweep workin' here!

Thanks. I will be sure to ruin it with my added plays in a bit. Nothing special about picking huge chalk plays, but I just don't see these teams losing.

[Nickelicious]

What the hell is going on with Carpenter? Gave up two solo shots in the first inning, giving back a nice little lead.

[MexicanStallion]

White Sox -185 (5.55 to win 3)
White Sox RL +105 (1 to win 1.05)
Dodgers -130 (3.90 to win 3)
Dodgers RL +175 (1 to win 1.75)
Giants -300 (12 to win 4)
Giants RL -135 (2.70 to win 2)
Brewers/Astros Under 9 +100 (2 to win 2)

[therber2]

Late Games

Hey guys,

I missed some early plays. Woke up late for work. Turned out to be a good thing because I think my leans didn't do so hot. Here are a few late game plays.

Rockies -145 (3 units)
Angels -1.5 +150 (1.5 units)

1-1 +1.5 units

Might have a few more. We'll see.

[Spaceviews]

Hey guys, I played the 1st inn. score(yes) in the Cubs Game & its coming up as a push. Did Zambrano start? Or was there a last min. change? Any info would be great guys.

[MexicanStallion]

Hey guys, I played the 1st inn. score(yes) in the Cubs Game & its coming up as a push. Did Zambrano start? Or was there a last min. change? Any info would be great guys.

Marshall started the game. No idea what happened with Zambrano

[TodaysAction]

Hey guys, I played the 1st inn. score(yes) in the Cubs Game & its coming up as a push. Did Zambrano start? Or was there a last min. change? Any info would be great guys.

Spaceviews,

That prop where I and or we play them, it wife's account, is an ACTION wager. I'd suggest you go back and look for any fine print and if can't find any, use the live chat help or call them. Instead of going off on them, try to remain calm and listen to what they have to say - it could have graded incorrectly (human error). If there's no fine print and you're in the right I'd highly recommend you contact The General (a mod) here. You can trust him, it may take a while but if you're right he will help get the situation cleared up. Whatever you do, please do not start a "this book" is screwing me type of thread as all that will do is make it more difficult to resolve.

[TodaysAction]

Thanks. Gonna read thru the posts and figure out your symbols. Wasn't quite sure what they all meant so I'll try and confirm. Going to 4 day weeks starting Monday (2 days and 2 swings) so I'll have some time to cap and attempt to contribute before the East Coast plays start.

If/when you think you have them, so you're on the same page as they're written and mean send me an e-mail and I'll respond next time i log in there (several times a day during the course of the day). The addy is my screen name here @ yahoo "dot" com

[TodaysAction]

Tailing TA today...I had most of what he had written last night, just put my own twist with the parlay and str8 bets. GL all

Sorry BamaBill67 it doesn't look like tonight is going to end in the black.

[TodaysAction]

With ya all the way on the bets. I also have STL for

Congrats on your STL winner.

GL Terry...

Belated

Hello TodaysAction and everyone.

Great thread you have going here! I've been "lurking" for a bit after stumbling upon the site... must be my good karma. Outstanding work all around, gents!

Much fortune to everyone today and in the future!

==

TA - I really don't want to post this in here, but I can't PM you. I believe I have successfully solved the code sheet, and that was fun by the way, but the pirate and fisherman are not on there. May I please get a clue? I'd appreciate it.

Why can't you PM? The only people I know that can't are one's who've been "in trouble" with this site previously. As I said, it really wasn't that tough to crack. is PIT and the fisherman information should be able be obtained from the post/heading in which it was used. Worse case, e-mail me at my screen name here @ yahoo "dot" com and I fill in the blanks.

[SmackdownV]

[COLOR=#000000! important]Did this happen to anyone else tonight?[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000! important]

I took Rockies Over 5 first 5 innings 1 unit to pay 1 unit.
Rockies RL -1.5 1 unit to win bout 1.5 units.

Both bets pushed due to the pitcher for the cubs out.

No action on RL or Over/Under bets since listed pitcher is out.

FRACK.[/COLOR]

[MexicanStallion]

Congrats on your STL winner.

Belated



Why can't you PM? The only people I know that can't are one's who've been "in trouble" with this site previously. As I said, it really wasn't that tough to crack. is PIT and the fisherman information should be able be obtained from the post/heading in which it was used. Worse case, e-mail me at my screen name here @ yahoo "dot" com and I fill in the blanks.

Not to speak for the guy above, but I think he means he can't pm you since your pms are turned off.

[SmackdownV]

No really anyone else have this happen tonight? I live chatted my book and they said the Rockies game was a push.

I took over 5 runs first 5 and also Rockies RL......I already won the 5.....and the Rockies look like they will cover the RL.

They said "action" only applies on ML not RL......but when I made my RL bet...."Action" was the default?

WTF???????

[TodaysAction]

[COLOR=#000000! important]Did this happen to anyone else tonight?[/color]
[COLOR=#000000! important]

I took Rockies Over 5 first 5 innings 1 unit to pay 1 unit.
Rockies RL -1.5 1 unit to win bout 1.5 units.

Both bets pushed due to the pitcher for the cubs out.

No action on RL or Over/Under bets since listed pitcher is out.

FRACK.[/color]

Good evening SmackdownV,

Best thing I can tell you is to READ YOUR TICKET CAREFULLY BEFORE CONFIRMING IT - some books have action both sides, action/listed and listed/action as options, make sure you wager what you really want.

[shoebox]

For those scratching their heads on the symbols use google to translate em. A simple copy and paste will give you what you seek...

[TodaysAction]

Not to speak for the guy above, but I think he means he can't pm you since your pms are turned off.

Valid point except I re-opened them a couple days ago.

[SmackdownV]

Thanks Today......

Can't really argue a bet unless your in Vegas I guess.

Arrrgh.......

[SmackdownV]

For my 600th post.....I'll Post that I made another stupid bet:

BC/Saskatchewan OVER 57...........

Thanks!

Take away my AWESOME ROCKIES WIN....and take my BC over $$.

Love it.

[MexicanStallion]

Valid point except I re-opened them a couple days ago.

Really? I still have this message for you...
TodaysAction has chosen not to receive private messages or may not be allowed to receive private messages. Therefore you may not send your message to him/her.

If you are trying to send this message to multiple recipients, remove TodaysAction from the recipient list and send the message again.

[TodaysAction]

For those scratching their heads on the symbols use google to translate em. A simple copy and paste will give you what you seek...

--------------------------

Aside form the wagering aspect, how you doing? For some reason I sense conflict in your posts. PM/forum/e-mail if you need to vent - no issues nor worries.

[TodaysAction]

Really? I still have this message for you...
TodaysAction has chosen not to receive private messages or may not be allowed to receive private messages. Therefore you may not send your message to him/her.

If you are trying to send this message to multiple recipients, remove TodaysAction from the recipient list and send the message again.

WTF? Thanks, I will find out what happened. BRB.

[therber2]

Guess I got lucky twice today. Laid off the early bets, andd....erp nvm didn't even do listed. LAA tomorrow guys I dunno if they are going to win tonight, but they sure will tomorrow.

[MexicanStallion]

WTF? Thanks, I will find out what happened. BRB.

I wrote you back to confirm, but everything seems to be working right now.

[TodaysAction]

Thanks Today......

Can't really argue a bet unless your in Vegas I guess.

Arrrgh.......

If you're right, you're right. Ask for a supervisor on the morning - maybe by then, they will have found the error of their ways if what you said was accurate and correct. Always re-read the ticket before confirming it - can't stress that enough.

[MexicanStallion]

With my joke of a day, I am done with the baseball season. There is no need to post any more plays and fill this thread with losers. Good luck to the rest of you

[pocketlint]

I cant believe my eyes on the Mets / Padres OVER.....[and this is the 4th post I'm saying the very same words ]

I stopped watching what seemed like a very painful UNDER for me.

And just like that .....it banked !!!



Hope you had good luck too guys !!!!

[therber2]

With my joke of a day, I am done with the baseball season. There is no need to post any more plays and fill this thread with losers. Good luck to the rest of you

Come again????

[MexicanStallion]

August 7th
2-8-1 (-30.39)

ML: 1-4 (-25.69)
RL: 1-4 (-4.70)
Total: 0-0-1 (+0.00)
-------------------------------
Record: 230-230-12 (+1.19)

Moneyline: 100-99-2 (-43.58)
Runline: 80-95-3 (+28.29)
Totals: 30-28-4 (-6.52)
5 Innings: 20-8-2 (+23.00)

[therber2]

Goin for broke

A LOT of upsets yesterday; don't know what happened. Today's card involves some records after losses. Maybe today Terry and I will have some picks. Not all of these are RAL based. Today I specifically want TA's opinion on the card. Plays are already in, but let me know what you think here.

Here's what I've got:
Giants -1 +105 (2 units)
White Sox -1 +123 (1.5 units)
Boston +1 +130 (1 unit)
Marlins +180 (.5 units)
Baltimore +180 (.5 units)
LAA -1.5 +135 (3 units)
LAA -158 (1.5 units)
Cubs +125 (.5 units)
Astros -105 (.5 units)
Padres -1.5 +150 (.5 units)
LAD -1.5 +130 (.5 units)
Rays -137 (1.5 units)

[therber2]

Analyzing the Run Line
Many of you love betting the Run Line, especially with the heavy favorites because of the reduced chalk. In fact, you can turn a -150 Money Line Favorite into a Run Line Underdog. The reduced juice keeps your risk low.
The oddsmakers use the standard fact that 70% of Winners beat the Run Line to calculate the Run Line odds.
The first thing I wanted to test was how teams with a certain money line odds performed on the Run Line. Is there a correlation between the odds a team has and how it performs against the run line.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

League Wide: 72.5%
+200 or more: 70.2%
+190s: 77.0%
+180s: 76.4%
+170s: 67.4%
+160s: 75.3%
+150s: 72.9%
+140s: 70.9%
+130s: 73.5%
+120s: 68.0%
+110s: 72.4%
+100s: 72.9%
-100s: 68.9%
-110s: 70.6%
-120s: 72.4%
-130s: 72.4%
-140s: 74.7%
-150s: 74.5%
-160s: 75.3%
-170s: 71.9%
-180s: 70.8%
-190s: 77.5%
-200s: 76.2%
Favorites that are -120 or better beat the runline at a higher percentage than the league average (73.6%). In fact, this indicates that betting the runline on these teams will generally be better than betting the money line. Turn these favorites into a dog.


Nevertheless, a more striking point worth noting is the Home-Away Dynamics of the Run Line.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%
Road Favorites better than -120: 80.1%
Analyzing it further, we see that Road Teams in the Money Line Odds range of better than -120 specified in our earlier table beat the Run Line 80% of the time when conditioned on winning the game. There is a 10% difference in covering the Run Line for the Road Team than for the Home Team.
The reason for this is quite simple: Home Teams that win the game do not have to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Road teams that win the game still bat in the Top of the 9th. That means the Road winner has 12.5% more at-bats than the corresponding home favorite.
Let us statistically model this scenario to show us how it works. During any half inning, the expected value of runs scored is 0.5. This means that the expected value of number of half innings necessary to score 1 full run would be approximately every 2 half innings. The home teams beats the Run Line with a 70% probability. This means that for every 100 games, they are ahead by more than 1 run going into bottom of the 9th 70 times and only ahead by 1 run going into the bottom half of the 9th 30 times. Since the home team wins, there is no need to bat in the 9th. Conversely, for the road team, they will be batting all 100 of those times. Of those 30 times, the expected number of games for them to score an extra run necessary to beat the run line is 15. This is an increase of 15%!! Reality only shows a 10% improvement and this can be explained by the fact that although the average number of runs per half innings is 0.5. They will not be spreading 1 run every 2 games. They will be held scoreless about 66% of the time and for the remaining 33% of the time score 1 or more runs.


http://www.easybaseballbetting.com/r..._analysis.html

Hey Hufster, can you dig up what the percentages for season long:
-1.5 wagers and,
+1.5 wagers ?

Just wondering, because I personally feel much less compelled to play a +1.5 runline over a -1.5. Most of the time +1.5 is just for peace of mind I think.

Anyone else know?