Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[TodaysAction]

2P, over 1', win 2.00 units
2P, DET, win 2.00 units

[TodaysAction]

Cash Money

my picks suckin bad today =/

Hopefully this will reverse for you sooner than later.

Tough loss on the Royals today TA. I was on them with you. Grienke didn't exactly have a stellar outing, but they still had a chance. Reliever heartburn at its finest again. Anyway, what are you thinking about tonight's game in pucks? I'm on the Wings again as well as the over. I'm liking to see the Wings RLM. Dont' get many opportunities to play the Wings @ -140 @ home. GO WINGS!!!!!!

Good evening ram1502,

It certainly wasn't the teams best effort this season. At least one thing is clear for me for the next time he pitches. Won't say now, but it'll be posted.

I'm diggin it TA. Lets cash these mo'fos

1P seemed slower than yesterday (sluggish) which concerns me some over the over - yet I still hit the over 1' for the 2P. Plenty of time to hit.

.

I have an idea but not sure if it works .. just came up with it from top of my head .. so no stats on it ..
What if i bet for a Team with a win % of 55 or greater that has a lost last game or on a losing streak , or bet against a team that has a win % of 45 or lower with a win last game or a winning streak ... how does that sound ?

Please forgive me for what I'm about to type, but why are you trying to make this more complicated than is needed? One of the better ways to cash is by checking the pitching match-ups and then going from there. However, if you going the 55/45% works for you, I'm glad for you. Once you find some data for this, please post it as I'm sure there are others who would like to learn the findings.

[trevlyn1983]

just brainstorming really .. new to this so was just seeing what you thought .

[TodaysAction]

Good Work yesterday people..........let's do it again today (Red Wings too)

Oakland vs Texas:

Texas has beaten Oakland 3 straight and looking for the sweep. Although 4 game sweeps are hard to do, Texas has won each game by 3 or more runs, and they are swinging the bats well right now. Can't say the same for Oakland, they have scored a total of 6 runs in the series.

Texas is 18-8 at home, while Oakland is the AL second worst team on the road at 7-16. Millwood has given up 10 runs in 5 home games this season, while Braden has an ERA of 5.68 in his last 3 games.

Going with the better hitting team, with the better pitcher. Going with the RL for value.

PICK: Texas (RL +125) 1 unit
Record: 13-4 (+12.0 units)

Sorry TA, I am on the wrong side of you today, but Good Luck on your play .........nice day for a picnic

Thank you. I kid you not win or lose within a couple hours, maybe three at most, they are "gone" and I've moved on to the next day - happy, excited or sad, distraught; can't change the outcome but do go over the worksheet to see if there was a human mistake or if the choice was "just wrong". It's ok that not all selections are not in agreement, never have an issues nor problems with people being on the other side unless they try to jam it down my throat but that doesn't happen in here. There is discussion, no sniping at people or smart assed remarks; in other words a place where people can read and/or contribute to the thread without fear and/or worry about being ganged up on. The picnic was great. We pitched some shoe, had bbq'd ribs, corn on the cob, homemade slaw and plenty of 16 ounce Coke bottles. Made for a good afternoon and early evening.

[TodaysAction]

just brainstorming really .. new to this so was just seeing what you thought .

Not a problem trevlyn1983,

And sorry if it wasn't what you were looking for (agreement that it'd be a good way). Match-ups are one of the better ways to start the selection process. One does not have to play all fav's to be profitable. Some will say never play this pitcher when they have a line of "x" or higher or only take this pitcher in day games when the temp is 65 or warmer, etc. Again, I have no issues with that but by doing it that way to me you really limit what you can play. For me, i like having some on each game instead of a pile on one game (however there are times when I put a pile on a team but I'll also have other games).

[trevlyn1983]

its all good .. i wasnt looking for a particular answers . just learning =)

[TodaysAction]

3P, DET, win 2.00 units

[TodaysAction]

its all good .. i wasnt looking for a particular answers . just learning =)

The day I stop trying to learn another/a new way to beat the outs, is the day it's time for me to stop wagering. Even though I use a pair of systems (baseball and hockey), I am constantly looking for a new edge.

Third period is about to begin.

[TodaysAction]

3P, DET, win 2.00 units

The over 1', 3P, moved 30 in that short span. Damned people, that's huge!

[TodaysAction]

That was one sick goal. Wings now up 3-1.

[trevlyn1983]

my picks for monday are ..
Mets
Yankees
Brewers
Rockies
White Sox
Reds
Phillies
Dodgers
Mariners

might not bet on em all but thats who i think will win ..

[TodaysAction]

my picks for monday are ..
Mets
Yankees
Brewers
Rockies
White Sox
Reds
Phillies
Dodgers
Mariners

might not bet on em all but thats who i think will win ..

Thanks for sharing `em.

[TodaysAction]

Over is toast again tonight. It happens but between the period wagers, will still be plus from the ice tonight.

[TodaysAction]

Classless move by PIT right there. Bunch of sour loser punks!

Congrats to those who backed the Red Wings tonight.

[trevlyn1983]

congratz

[TodaysAction]

congratz

[therber2]

On-line banking is available 24/7/365. On a more serious note, you've been around long enough to know that there are times when things just go your way. Yesterday was one of them.

Will post soon todays selections. What's up with you being dry? Didn't foresee that one. Thank you. I can understand you/others not coattailing people because if one cherry picks and it/they don't win, one gets the double whammy (losing compounded by it not being one's own work). Keep adding your input to the thread.

Heh; even on Sundays. I dig the attitude: consistently playing inconsistently. This is how I win at poker, and how I've been successful in the stock market especially when sentiment plays in heavier. (By the way, **off subject** I'll probably have a few real important buys in that depending on what the market does next week. There might be a .com sort of boom in one area; a ROI I'm willing to wager on, and am confident in). Again though off subject this is baseball here. PM me if you want to know dudes.

Now, back to baseball. I have a pretty good idea of who will win one game tomorrow.

-NYY for game and a *sprinkle on the RL*.

I saw a very logical study showing that an away team's victory hits the RL around 80% of the time compared to something like 70-75% for a home victory. So why not sprinkle it? If anyone wants the link let me know I can dig it up. Some of you may have seen it around somewhere.

TA I look at a game slightly differently. First I see if the team has any real desire to win a game rather than the number first. NYY just had an upset; they want blood.

-Chamberlain 3.97 (1.57 WHIP) vs Sowers 7.71 (1.71 WHIP) Indians are 1-4 in Sowers last 5 starts Indians record with Chamberlain in is much better.
-Chamberlain is the man when the pressure is on, and generally when the team is a fav. It will be a hot and muggy game; this makes me lean heavier on my pitcher's abilities + NYY faces a left handed starter (the team is hot on the road again lefty starters + a very close loss the previous day NYY wants this game, and series.

-same game almost equal weight: NYY/CLE o10 Sower just simply isn't going to do well (my guess) + the wind pointing straight to outfield or at least this is the weather projection. NYY's bats will be hot.

-CINCI Cincinati will win a game in this series against the cards. Only problem is I don't know which one, but if I'd wager on it I'd say it would be this game. They just got swept; a miserable defeat that should NOT have happened; Cinci is going to bounce back. Light on this though

[therber2]

Bike crash

The picnic was great. We pitched some shoe, had bbq'd ribs, corn on the cob, homemade slaw and plenty of 16 ounce Coke bottles. Made for a good afternoon and early evening.

Same thing here after work. Funny story....well sort of. My brother just had a baby, and got a new important job. He wanted to ride a quick dirt bike around the lawn; his wife wouldn't let him so in his honor I rode the bike. Now I have never ridden a motorcycle/dirtbike before, and did not realize that the shifting works a bit different than a car: clutch, shift, release, hit gas; NOT clutch, shift, gas + release clutch. If you know anything about bikes (I do now) you'll know that this causes the bike to take off like a jet. I wheelied and flipped the bike knocking myself up pretty good. Well, I tried it again, and got it. Easy; just a word to the wise though. Don't experiment with motorcycles; luckily I'm just a bit dinged up.

Highlight of my day though by far.

[hoop guru]

Indians are hurting with injuries too. Leadoff hitter, Sizemore is on DL and their catcher Martinez is questionable for tonite's game. I am capping the the yankees to score 6 plus runs and the indians to score or 3 or fewer runs tonite.

[t4_ever]

let hope Red wings give us last shot of profit...TA

Keep up the great work..

[therber2]

Analyzing the Run Line
Many of you love betting the Run Line, especially with the heavy favorites because of the reduced chalk. In fact, you can turn a -150 Money Line Favorite into a Run Line Underdog. The reduced juice keeps your risk low.
The oddsmakers use the standard fact that 70% of Winners beat the Run Line to calculate the Run Line odds.
The first thing I wanted to test was how teams with a certain money line odds performed on the Run Line. Is there a correlation between the odds a team has and how it performs against the run line.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

League Wide: 72.5%
+200 or more: 70.2%
+190s: 77.0%
+180s: 76.4%
+170s: 67.4%
+160s: 75.3%
+150s: 72.9%
+140s: 70.9%
+130s: 73.5%
+120s: 68.0%
+110s: 72.4%
+100s: 72.9%
-100s: 68.9%
-110s: 70.6%
-120s: 72.4%
-130s: 72.4%
-140s: 74.7%
-150s: 74.5%
-160s: 75.3%
-170s: 71.9%
-180s: 70.8%
-190s: 77.5%
-200s: 76.2%
Favorites that are -120 or better beat the runline at a higher percentage than the league average (73.6%). In fact, this indicates that betting the runline on these teams will generally be better than betting the money line. Turn these favorites into a dog.


Nevertheless, a more striking point worth noting is the Home-Away Dynamics of the Run Line.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%
Road Favorites better than -120: 80.1%
Analyzing it further, we see that Road Teams in the Money Line Odds range of better than -120 specified in our earlier table beat the Run Line 80% of the time when conditioned on winning the game. There is a 10% difference in covering the Run Line for the Road Team than for the Home Team.
The reason for this is quite simple: Home Teams that win the game do not have to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Road teams that win the game still bat in the Top of the 9th. That means the Road winner has 12.5% more at-bats than the corresponding home favorite.
Let us statistically model this scenario to show us how it works. During any half inning, the expected value of runs scored is 0.5. This means that the expected value of number of half innings necessary to score 1 full run would be approximately every 2 half innings. The home teams beats the Run Line with a 70% probability. This means that for every 100 games, they are ahead by more than 1 run going into bottom of the 9th 70 times and only ahead by 1 run going into the bottom half of the 9th 30 times. Since the home team wins, there is no need to bat in the 9th. Conversely, for the road team, they will be batting all 100 of those times. Of those 30 times, the expected number of games for them to score an extra run necessary to beat the run line is 15. This is an increase of 15%!! Reality only shows a 10% improvement and this can be explained by the fact that although the average number of runs per half innings is 0.5. They will not be spreading 1 run every 2 games. They will be held scoreless about 66% of the time and for the remaining 33% of the time score 1 or more runs.


http://www.easybaseballbetting.com/r..._analysis.html

[solobass]

I will be on the Reds every game this series against the Cardinals.

[Foghorn]

Hey Therbs,,,,,,,,,,great write up on the Run Line. When you say a "a road team in a moneyline odds range of better than -120", are you speaking of the range (-120 to -200)? Good Information, gonna try some of that tonight.

Also like your NYY play. Going with that too.

PS- keep off the bikes, we need you here =


Gonna send you a PM late

[therber2]

Hey Therbs,,,,,,,,,,great write up on the Run Line. When you say a "a road team in a moneyline odds range of better than -120", are you speaking of the range (-120 to -200)? Good Information, gonna try some of that tonight.

Also like your NYY play. Going with that too.

PS- keep off the bikes, we need you here =


Gonna send you a PM late

Lol Fog I didn't do that write up. But to answer the question: statistically, yes. I'll be safe no worries. At work now gtg. GL all

[TodaysAction]

Heh; even on Sundays. I dig the attitude: consistently playing inconsistently. This is how I win at poker, and how I've been successful in the stock market especially when sentiment plays in heavier. (By the way, **off subject** I'll probably have a few real important buys in that depending on what the market does next week. There might be a .com sort of boom in one area; a ROI I'm willing to wager on, and am confident in). Again though off subject this is baseball here. PM me if you want to know dudes.

Now, back to baseball. I have a pretty good idea of who will win one game tomorrow.

-NYY for game and a *sprinkle on the RL*.

I saw a very logical study showing that an away team's victory hits the RL around 80% of the time compared to something like 70-75% for a home victory. So why not sprinkle it? If anyone wants the link let me know I can dig it up. Some of you may have seen it around somewhere.

TA I look at a game slightly differently. First I see if the team has any real desire to win a game rather than the number first. NYY just had an upset; they want blood.

-Chamberlain 3.97 (1.57 WHIP) vs Sowers 7.71 (1.71 WHIP) Indians are 1-4 in Sowers last 5 starts Indians record with Chamberlain in is much better.
-Chamberlain is the man when the pressure is on, and generally when the team is a fav. It will be a hot and muggy game; this makes me lean heavier on my pitcher's abilities + NYY faces a left handed starter (the team is hot on the road again lefty starters + a very close loss the previous day NYY wants this game, and series.

-same game almost equal weight: NYY/CLE o10 Sower just simply isn't going to do well (my guess) + the wind pointing straight to outfield or at least this is the weather projection. NYY's bats will be hot.

-CINCI Cincinati will win a game in this series against the cards. Only problem is I don't know which one, but if I'd wager on it I'd say it would be this game. They just got swept; a miserable defeat that should NOT have happened; Cinci is going to bounce back. Light on this though

Best thing about on-line banking is it's open damned near every day of the year. Glad you "get it". No worries how you look at games. All that really matters is, did you cash from it or does it go into the fire? Looks like CIN is going to be a popular choice tonight. Red rover, red rover the Yankees go over.

[TodaysAction]

Same thing here after work. Funny story....well sort of. My brother just had a baby, and got a new important job. He wanted to ride a quick dirt bike around the lawn; his wife wouldn't let him so in his honor I rode the bike. Now I have never ridden a motorcycle/dirtbike before, and did not realize that the shifting works a bit different than a car: clutch, shift, release, hit gas; NOT clutch, shift, gas + release clutch. If you know anything about bikes (I do now) you'll know that this causes the bike to take off like a jet. I wheelied and flipped the bike knocking myself up pretty good. Well, I tried it again, and got it. Easy; just a word to the wise though. Don't experiment with motorcycles; luckily I'm just a bit dinged up.

Highlight of my day though by far.

How bad was the bike damaged if at all? By the way, who wears the pants in your brother's marriage? Damn, no way should a grown man not go and ride if he wants to. You'll heal and be able to tell this to the little nipper down the line. Family, what can ya say?

[TodaysAction]

Indians are hurting with injuries too. Leadoff hitter, Sizemore is on DL and their catcher Martinez is questionable for tonite's game. I am capping the the yankees to score 6 plus runs and the indians to score or 3 or fewer runs tonite.

Good evening hoop guru,

Thanks for your contribution and hope you'll
add more on a daily basis.

[TodaysAction]

theberb2,

Nice RL information.

[TodaysAction]

I will be on the Reds every game this series against the Cardinals.

Welcome back stranger Save me a seat as I'm running a little late but will be there.

[TodaysAction]

Hey Therbs,,,,,,,,,,great write up on the Run Line. When you say a "a road team in a moneyline odds range of better than -120", are you speaking of the range (-120 to -200)? Good Information, gonna try some of that tonight.

Also like your NYY play. Going with that too.

PS- keep off the bikes, we need you here =


Gonna send you a PM late

The more, the better.

[Axis]

Up to 10-5, +6.54u

Early Leans are:
Colorado (update line later)
Chicago Cubs (update line later)
Toronto Blue Jays +112

overall, 10-8, +3.54u

Not such a great day, but back at it again! (I actually broke even thanks to the wings winning by 2 )

Todays plays are:
Florida Marlins -101
San Diego Padres +100

No Run Lines today

[TodaysAction]

overall, 10-8, +3.54u

Not such a great day, but back at it again! (I actually broke even thanks to the wings winning by 2 )

Todays plays are:
Florida Marlins -101
San Diego Padres +100

No Run Lines today

Time to bounce back to the correct side of your ledger. Even is better than red.

Game three is "Life and Death" for Crosby's crew. 1P is really worth a strong look. Just a heads up.

[TodaysAction]

METS/PIT, , win 5.00 units (multiple accounts)
MILW/FL, , win 4.00 units (multiple accounts)

CO, risk 5.00 units
CIN, risk 5.00 units

That's all for now. Good luck with your selections.

[Axis]

o.o

I'm on board the FLA/MIL 1st inning as well...G/L!!

And yea, I'm thinkin' the over for the 1st as of now...Penguins will have the better matchups in Pittsburgh, which I think will allow them to get an extra goal or 2 out of that...and I think Detroit will still continue to score, no matter the matchup

[t4_ever]

Hi TA .. what does Milw/FL means ?? do u bet for milw or FL ?