Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[therber2]

Results of the LEANS

....so I'll give you all my early leans for the day, and we'll see if I can brew anything up.

-Colorado (Here is a good example of a play that would normally win however, current circumstances push it too much towards an odd coin toss. I want to tell you the Rockies are going to smear the Pads, but I can't) On with the list...
-Oakland
-Reds
-Blue Jays
-Nationals
-Detroit (Cleveland on a 10 game losing streak [good or bad for this wager?] Verlander in, hot bats vs. cold bats. On the other hand Cleveland is getting beat and beat, and this series will conclude a double sweep. Again I want to tell ya'lls that the boys from Detroit are going to smear, but we've got some coin toss factors so once more I pass)
-Milwaukee
-Cubs
-Boston??

Should we go by the idea that a team "does not need a win" or that wins are ALWAYS sought after? Is it a question per team?

DET/CLE (light) sorry
TOR/SEA (light) sorry
COL/SGO (Medium-heavy) sorry
CHI/SFO (Medium) sorry

Throw in some NFL:
Teaser on Broncos and Vikings

GL boys

TA. I am not placing bets regularly during this period of baseball for good reasons. As you and I have seen plenty of people are still going at it strong. Kudos. I posted some LEANS for the folks in here to chew on; however, if there is a problem with that I will kindly step down. I am simply keeping my powder dry at the moment and giving my two cents.

You know how I post my officials, and you know that I am taking what I think is an intelligent break. This was a lean card. No official plays. You have seen my format. I am surprised you would tell me you don't want my "shit" in here....is there a problem?

[therber2]

So, I take it you like SC tonight then, right.

I have no opinion other than seeing t4 bank it in. There is more to the guy than most probably see.

[therber2]

Howdy Therber,

I'm pondering the same question. My thought is that everyone still mathematically in it needs to win. About 10 games left. Only team in the playoffs for sure are the Yankees. That, and Home field needs to be secured for the playoffs.

Managers are sticking with their rotations and trying to find relievers that can get people out if they're up in the later innings. Then you have to throw the "lousy teams" into the equation. These are young guys playing for jobs next year and trying to impress (SD, AZ, CINN, OAK, ETC.) So far the pitchers on these teams have kept them in ball games and then their hitters feast on the middle relief guys mentioned previously late in the game. I'm leaning toward the % here. That being, the contenders are motivated enough to get the win despite what the spoilers are throwing at them. Therefore, I'm leaning toward the contenders these last 10 games or so.

Leans for Today:

DET - Verlander pulling his usual late season crap, hopefully not looking ahead to Minn this weekend.

SF - Have to win, Cubs traveling 2 time zones on no rest

BOS

LAD - I think Torre is telling the boys to "get this thing wrapped up" with WAS & PIT

PHI - 1 name - Brad Lidge. Still gotta go with them.

"Then you have to throw the "lousy teams" into the equation. These are young guys playing for jobs next year and trying to impress (SD, AZ, CINN, OAK, ETC.)"

Really interesting thought there VegasPlayer, and very likely explains, at least in part, a lot of strange upsets that keep me out right now. I like to look for the easiest bets I can find, and I give you boys credit for playing right now. Don't know the game as well as you all. Funny, the bets you and I agreed on won, and the one we didn't came within only a run except Philly!

[VegasPlayer]

9/24/09

Todays Plays

LAD -190 2 U
PHI -127 1 U
BOS RL -115 1 U
COL RL +110 1 U

DET/SF ML Parlay +190 1 U
DET/SF RL Parlay +421 .5 U

GL today everyone. Check back in late evening/early morning.

3-3 +1.5 Units.
I'll take it.
Col - Lousy middle relief as alluded to earlier
LAD should not have been that close either
Lost one leg of each parlay (DET RL & SF ML) on 2 out, 2 strike HR's in the 9 inning
If you want lot's of excitement and make some money at the same time, fade my plays -
I'll get em, just hope it's this month and not next April.

Thanks for the reinforcement Therber.

[Mr Winters]

My ONLY play tonight: (I'll prove it if you want - been getting eaten alive by the bases for a few weeks, just wanted to. . . )

Parlay (9-team) $2 to win $221.81

Reds -135
LAD -144
Phils -126
Rocks -187
Cubs -108
A's -113
Sea -148
Det -210
Sox -187

You don't have to look hard to see the problem. . . holy cow Rockies. . .

BTW I am a low-roller. . . my unit size IS $2

I don't know what the frequency of every fav on the board hitting in one night but. . .

holy cow Rockies, you suck

I'm out.

[oda11]

Winters, unit size doesn't matter, but that Rockies loss does blow!

[WOK]

Quote:
Originally Posted by WOK
$Karma$ what are your thoughts on No Score in the 1st inning on the NY/Boston game on Friday?
And maybe team totals under for Boston? thanks in advance. Wok
I know im not karma but heres my input. Joba has a 4+ era and lester has a 3+ era and both these teams are excellent hitters so they could put up a lot of runs int his game and even the first inning. My play for this game will prolly be 1st inn score yes. BOL

Ice, isn't Sabathia pitching on Friday?

[Ulver86]

already taking the Cardinals tomorrow at -160. Carpenter is pitching while Colorado is trotting out Aaron Cook who will be limited in pitches anyway because he is coming back from injury, which means an early bullpen sighting no matter if he is pitching well or not

Carpenter - 3-0 with a 0.62 ERA in four career starts versus the Rockies.


also on the Braves in a must-win game for them vs the nats

[Carson05]

thinking about fading the braves and tailing the rockies from here on out....the braves don't do well under pressure.

[Nastrovje]

5* cincinnati 1.74
3* texas 1.95
3* detroit 1.47
2* dodgers 1.62
2* seattle 1.63

4-1

[IcE]

Quote:
Originally Posted by WOK
$Karma$ what are your thoughts on No Score in the 1st inning on the NY/Boston game on Friday?
And maybe team totals under for Boston? thanks in advance. Wok
I know im not karma but heres my input. Joba has a 4+ era and lester has a 3+ era and both these teams are excellent hitters so they could put up a lot of runs int his game and even the first inning. My play for this game will prolly be 1st inn score yes. BOL

Ice, isn't Sabathia pitching on Friday?

no sir, Joba Chamberlain is pitching 2nite

[IcE]

CC will be pitching Saturday

[WOK]

Quote:
Originally Posted by WOK
Quote:
Originally Posted by WOK
$Karma$ what are your thoughts on No Score in the 1st inning on the NY/Boston game on Friday?
And maybe team totals under for Boston? thanks in advance. Wok
I know im not karma but heres my input. Joba has a 4+ era and lester has a 3+ era and both these teams are excellent hitters so they could put up a lot of runs int his game and even the first inning. My play for this game will prolly be 1st inn score yes. BOL

Ice, isn't Sabathia pitching on Friday?
no sir, Joba Chamberlain is pitching 2nite


Thanks Ice for the heads up. WOK

[oda11]

Braves and Red Sox today for me... Anyone?

[IcE]

Braves and Red Sox today for me... Anyone?

im prolly ganna just let the BOS/NYY series along. I just hate capping these two teams. Def. when they play each other.

[Carson05]

yeah those games hurt to think about

[oda11]

im prolly ganna just let the BOS/NYY series along. I just hate capping these two teams. Def. when they play each other.

yeah those games hurt to think about

Thanks for the inputs guys! Good luck to both of you today.

[oda11]

Leans for today:
Reds ml
Dodgers rl
Braves rl/ml
Sox ml
Twins ml

Just gonna pick 1 to 2 outta those 5, good luck everyone.

[$KARMA$]

Quote: Originally Posted by WOK $Karma$ what are your thoughts on No Score in the 1st inning on the NY/Boston game on Friday? And maybe team totals under for Boston? thanks in advance. Wok I know im not karma but heres my input. Joba has a 4+ era and lester has a 3+ era and both these teams are excellent hitters so they could put up a lot of runs int his game and even the first inning. My play for this game will prolly be 1st inn score yes. BOL Ice, isn't Sabathia pitching on Friday?

WOK! Sorry late reply.. life is busy, right?

To your q:

1. The best person to ask about the 1st inning is TodaysAction - he has a system and he hits that prop at a high rate in my estimation.
2. Like a few people mentioned already, and I share the thought - it's BOS/NYY, so anything that can,will and won't happen. RISK > !
3. That said - opportunities arise everywhere so my very early initial lean is BOS to win. Everything else in that game - no interest.

BUT If you see something that everyone else doesn't see, by all means go with you gut. Good luck today!

[$KARMA$]

We'll see. Thread power baby....

THREAD POWER!! : knows only confidence and no doubt. You have to BELIEVE for it to work, Vegas.

4-2-0 on the night adding 9.70 units to the accounts.

The Sensei!

3-3 +1.5 Units. I'll take it. Col - Lousy middle relief as alluded to earlier LAD should not have been that close either Lost one leg of each parlay (DET RL & SF ML) on 2 out, 2 strike HR's in the 9 inning If you want lot's of excitement and make some money at the same time, fade my plays - I'll get em, just hope it's this month and not next April. Thanks for the reinforcement Therber.

No way, Vegas. I like your capping... countless times we've been on the same play - it cashed. I think we have people in here we could do damage to the books with ... too bad things got rolling late in the season.

[$KARMA$]

Yesterday closed with the early AM W in tennis

+1 W [tennis]

Philadelphia Phillies 0.5 U
Texas Rangers / Oakland Athletics (U8) 0.5 U

and a (1-1) addition to [mlb]

Thread did well yesterday, boys. Let's have a great start to the weekend, the last one in September.

[VegasPlayer]

THREAD POWER!! : knows only confidence and no doubt. You have to BELIEVE for it to work, Vegas.



The Sensei!



No way, Vegas. I like your capping... countless times we've been on the same play - it cashed. I think we have people in here we could do damage to the books with ... too bad things got rolling late in the season.

Thanks Karma. Trying to get the timing and weight (In Units) right. Just a little out of synch lately. I hate to chase, but may have to in order to right the ship. Had a bad weekend chasing PHI, ATL, & TB 2-3 weeks ago which really threw a wrench in the old unit total. 2 weekends to go, then the playoffs should be a little more predicatable.

[$KARMA$]

Thanks Karma. Trying to get the timing and weight (In Units) right. Just a little out of synch lately. I hate to chase, but may have to in order to right the ship. Had a bad weekend chasing PHI, ATL, & TB 2-3 weeks ago which really threw a wrench in the old unit total. 2 weekends to go, then the playoffs should be a little more predicatable.

I hear ya - it's the dance we are all trying to master .. and the learning never ends.
==

I remember the chases with those teams. Well, I believe you can get it done by the end of the season! There's plenty of time and opportunities left...Good Luck, Sir! Let's get'em Vegas.. starting today!!

[VegasPlayer]

9/25/09 - Plays For Today

LAD RL -120 1U
STL ML -145 1U
SF ML -155 2 U

2 Team ML parlays .5 U Each
BOS/LAA +175
ATL/LAD +147
MINN/DET +388
FLA/SF +159
PHI/STL +171

I like all these teams this weekend, just not willing to risk 15+ units on straight wagers. GL everyone.

[TodaysAction]

THREAD POWER!! : knows only confidence and no doubt. You have to BELIEVE for it to work, Vegas.

The Sensei!

No way, Vegas. I like your capping... countless times we've been on the same play - it cashed. I think we have people in here we could do damage to the books with ... too bad things got rolling late in the season.

$KARMA$,

You are right on many levels there - especially the thread and daily `cappers. It is unfortunate the end of the season is upon us however, there will be playoff baseball. I truly hope all the regular/daily posters return for next season from the get go (spring training). Thank you for your comment about myself but I do not know it all nor will ever claim to as I know what works best for my family, friends and self. This thread has helped many a person and not just in the monetary sense which was one of the goals I had for it. Some of the thoughts, patterns, comment and impressions came from a book I read and then gave to each of my sons. The book is "There Is Greatness Within You, My Son" . Here's a random portion of a page I just opened to,
"If you trust the winner within you, you will win.
If you can keep the courage, you will go so far.
If you follow your ambitions, your course will guide you
towards a ladder that you can climb to your stars.

If you don't put limits on yourself,
you can always keep striving.
You might amaze yourself with what
you discover you can do.
If you want to reach out for happiness,
don't ever forget these words:

You can go as far as your dreams can take you."

Thanks Karma. Trying to get the timing and weight (In Units) right. Just a little out of synch lately. I hate to chase, but may have to in order to right the ship. Had a bad weekend chasing PHI, ATL, & TB 2-3 weeks ago which really threw a wrench in the old unit total. 2 weekends to go, then the playoffs should be a little more predicatable.

Something to always remember if one chases, set an upper limit/level and if need be take multiple days to recoup the lost funds instead of an all at once approach.

[VegasPlayer]

Good advice TA. Noted and taken. See SF pick. Not trying to recoup all losses on this team in one shot.

[TodaysAction]

Good advice TA. Noted and taken. See SF pick. Not trying to recoup all losses on this team in one shot.

Not so much concerned/worried about your wagering patterns/styles from the communications off board as it was meant more for greener pastures - apologies if you took another way. Didn't get consistent good reads on MILW and SF this season and they will end up in the red as I am done with them (less any and/or ).

[$KARMA$]

TA,

thanks for the reply. I was honestly thinking the same thing when typing that - I really hope that "the crew" is here next season from day one. (btw, Fog where are you? and Renagade, too?) Heck, I'm getting ready for TodaysAction, 2019 M.L.B. Thread...
==
Thanks for sharing the book paragraph, it's exactly what it is ALL about. And this thread is proof of it, really. As are the athletes most of us admire/follow... when they are down a score (bucket, TD, run, goal, point etc) they are not sitting on the sideline thinking what some people are at home (cursing, breaking stuff, blaming everything under the sun)... they are worried about the next at bat, next defensive play and how they are going to come back and WIN! They are focused and BELIEVE, until that last out, whistle blow.. that they will, in fact, WIN!. That's what gets you 2 runs at the bottom of the ninth when you were playing like crap all game... you shot 2/13 but got the game winning bucket... you missed every field goal, but made the one with the clock expired.. missed 3 key tackles but crushed your man with 4 and inches to a loss of 4 yards..score 2 goals in the last 90 seconds after blowing a 2-0 lead. They don't have time for doubt, worrying, what ifs and howthathappeneds - they are waste of energy and distract focus.

I'm going to go off on rant!..wait, I just did! Let's get em today, boys!

[VegasPlayer]

Not so much concerned/worried about your wagering patterns/styles from the communications off board as it was meant more for greener pastures - apologies if you took another way. Didn't get consistent good reads on MILW and SF this season and they will end up in the red as I am done with them (less any and/or ).

No apology needed. The dialogue in here helps keep me focused and gives me fresh 's in how to look at things which almost always translates to improvement.
P.S. A little analysis has shown the Giants haven't been kind to me either.

[oda11]

That is some good TA

Thank you, it was a great read. Good luck today to you and co.

[oda11]

I have only booked Braves ML for 2 units so far, still debating on Dodgers RL. Any inputs guys?

The line movement for the Braves is not good, but I look to fade Nats and Pirates rest of the way...

[VegasPlayer]

I have only booked Braves ML for 2 units so far, still debating on Dodgers RL. Any inputs guys?

The line movement for the Braves is not good, but I look to fade Nats and Pirates rest of the way...

I'm on the Dodgers RL & probably will be all weekend. Torre needs to get his rotation set, so watch out for "experiments". Agree with the fades.

[TodaysAction]

TA,

thanks for the reply. I was honestly thinking the same thing when typing that - I really hope that "the crew" is here next season from day one. (btw, Fog where are you? and Renagade, too?) Heck, I'm getting ready for TodaysAction, 2019 M.L.B. Thread...
==
Thanks for sharing the book paragraph, it's exactly what it is ALL about. And this thread is proof of it, really. As are the athletes most of us admire/follow... when they are down a score (bucket, TD, run, goal, point etc) they are not sitting on the sideline thinking what some people are at home (cursing, breaking stuff, blaming everything under the sun)... they are worried about the next at bat, next defensive play and how they are going to come back and WIN! They are focused and BELIEVE, until that last out, whistle blow.. that they will, in fact, WIN!. That's what gets you 2 runs at the bottom of the ninth when you were playing like crap all game... you shot 2/13 but got the game winning bucket... you missed every field goal, but made the one with the clock expired.. missed 3 key tackles but crushed your man with 4 and inches to a loss of 4 yards..score 2 goals in the last 90 seconds after blowing a 2-0 lead. They don't have time for doubt, worrying, what ifs and howthathappeneds - they are waste of energy and distract focus.

I'm going to go off on rant!..wait, I just did! Let's get em today, boys!

$KARMA$,

By far, imho, your best post I've ever read here as you've just proved "you get it" Far as I know Foghorn has shut down M.L.B. and may have called it a season. Between his work and other projects he's involved in I'm stunned and grateful for how much time he was able to put in here. Same for therber2 but I guess he didn't get the sarcasm in the post I made to him. Then there was Bama, was here for a while, then split. Plus the folks who joined recently, the thread is loaded with good minds and should be able to put a hurting on any outlet.

[oda11]

I'm on the Dodgers RL & probably will be all weekend. Torre needs to get his rotation set, so watch out for "experiments". Agree with the fades.

Good luck!

[TodaysAction]

That is some good TA

Thank you, it was a great read. Good luck today to you and co.

oda11,

Yes sir! Yes sir! Yes sir!

and you as well.