mlb chase 2013

**Grinder12000** · 04-28-13, 09:28 PM

LOL. I've been jumping off the ship in these chases but normally when up 50 or 60 units.

Damn it - ever have a sports book that you just seem to mess up every so often because they have ONE EXTRA CLICK? two ARE YOU SURE clicks.

Well, 1/2 if my Oakland wager I seemed to miss that last click - no wager grrrrr Now I have to get creative. Sorry - had to vent.

I'm not even sure I can get money OUT of that place since America made sports wagering illegal - it's closed to Americans. Europeans have it made. We have to be sneaky just to cash a check.

QUICK UPDATE W-L pure W-L

P1 4-5
P2 2-6
S1 5-3
S2 4-3
S3 44-30*

S3 Follow 20-17
S3 Fade 24-13

**knugen** · 04-29-13, 12:07 AM

What a sick parlay, first a really crazy game with milan and then the sick oakland game.. Pphheeww

**illisdre** · 04-29-13, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

LOL. I've been jumping off the ship in these chases but normally when up 50 or 60 units.

Damn it - ever have a sports book that you just seem to mess up every so often because they have ONE EXTRA CLICK? two ARE YOU SURE clicks.

Well, 1/2 if my Oakland wager I seemed to miss that last click - no wager grrrrr Now I have to get creative. Sorry - had to vent.

I'm not even sure I can get money OUT of that place since America made sports wagering illegal - it's closed to Americans. Europeans have it made. We have to be sneaky just to cash a check.

Ive lost about 30 units to careless mistakes of mouse clicking in the past year. These games could have gone the other way I suppose,, but.. mostly did not. I switched from Bet365 to Pinnacle to "catch the slightly better odds"... and due to the interface, I have failed to confirm winning bets, bet wrong sides.. missed games altogether.

Grinder, dont play at a book you think is possibly uncashable... check now by withdrawing money.

**illisdre** · 04-29-13, 12:22 AM

Just a side note.. and not to be the a total pussy douche.. but please ensure that this evenings Sweat has not affected you decision making in any of your next bets. Don't let the gambling spirit take control. Just advice fellas.

**Jellybeans** · 04-29-13, 01:12 AM

Off topic here...
I have been using 5Dimes, so far so good.
Customer Service is excellent.
The lines are almost the best, but not much in rewards programs that interest me.
I rather just have less juice and better lines than rewards.
Also using person to person transactions, no bank, no credit-card.
And they cover all fees, so good for US and Europeans.
Just my opinion, but if you have horror stories from them, plz do let me know.
Now lets put a few more units in the bank to close out a good month.

**dalogester** · 04-29-13, 01:57 AM

Gg Oakland, incredible.

**Stifler** · 04-29-13, 02:36 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

28.04.2013

S1

(A Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u
(A Bet) SD fade: San Francisco 1,893 1,12u

S2

(B Bet) Phil fade: NY Mets 1,719 1,39u | NY Mets 2,06 2,255u

S3

(D Bet) Balti fade: Oak 1,82 1,22u | Oak 1,794 2,796u | Oak 1,735 6,824u | Oak + AC Milan 2,302 9,094u
(D Bet) Oak: Oak 1,82 1,22u | Oak 1,794 2,796u | Oak 1,735 6,824u | Oak + AC Milan 2,302 9,094u

P1

(B Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u | Detroit -1,5 2,56 1,288u

P2

(B Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u | Detroit 1,725 2,772u

records:
S1: W 5 | L 0 (+5,00 units)
S2: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
S3: W 45 | L 1 (+8,497 units)
P1: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
P2: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)

pending:
- P1 T.Hudson, C Bet on next start
- P2 T.Hudson, C Bet on next start
- P1 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- S1 NYY, B Bet on 07.05.2013
- S2 Phil fade, C Bet on 30.04.2013
- S1 Stl, B Bet on 29.04.2013
- S1 SD fade, B Bet on 03.05.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 04-29-13, 05:38 AM

29.04.2013

S1

(B Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,781 3,649u

S2

(A Bet) Cle fade: Kansas City 1,658 1,52u

S3

(A Bet) SD fade: Cubs 1,685 1,46u
(A Bet) Cubs: Cubs 1,685 1,46u

P3

(A Bet) M.Cain fade: Arizona 1,943 1,06u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Grinder12000** · 04-29-13, 07:20 AM

I rather just have less juice and better lines than rewards.

I wish 5Diems HAD less juice! There lines are not that great compared to some other books even with their "reduced" juice. Other sports are much better but if I already have reduced juice why would I want it again. See - I can get better lines at Intertops on every game when comparing to 5Dimes

And does this happen to others? One book ALWAYS losses while the other ones always win? Seems every bet I put into 5dimes is a loser LOL

Grinder, dont play at a book you think is possibly uncashable... check now by withdrawing money.

Yea - I wish I would lose all my $$ in INTERTOPS! I've been there since 1997. Costs $50 to get a check

BUT - the chase moves onto more exciting times - carry on! It's all good once again!

I think I'll make up my non-won units with an extra unit on "C" games so they won't multiply 3 times.

**Grinder12000** · 04-29-13, 12:54 PM

This year compared to last year.

Of course incomplete stats but

last year with 504 total plays, 10.09% were "C" plays which won 60.7% of the time
this year we are averaging 8.04% "C" plays but only winning 44.4%

SO - trying to make up a few units on "C" games is not a good idea. hmmmm

**dalogester** · 04-29-13, 01:30 PM

that or it might be time to even out. lol jk gamblers fallacy. dont think just do it man

**Bawth** · 04-29-13, 01:52 PM

I had a random thought earlier and wondering what everyone else thinks. So how about when we get to a D bet we split up that bet evenly on the next 10 A bets? eg. D bet 50units so the next 10(A) series bets we put an extra 5 units on each series.

**dalogester** · 04-29-13, 02:21 PM

With all do respect I think that's a terrible idea and it would cost you to bet outside of your bankroll because we know not all the a bets will clear and if they get to c and d it would be betting outside of bankroll.. sigh what's wrong with playing the system how It Is? I mean the sysrem is backtested to be played a certain way. If youre afraid of a 50 unit bet obviously bet smaller.

**Grinder12000** · 04-29-13, 04:11 PM

The problem with going smaller is that the average size "D" bet is about 23 units. So if you adjust your bets in half just because we have 1 or 2 double size "D" bets you are not really utilizing the system to it's greatest potential.

Most people are psychologically prepared to be total idiots and bet up to 25 units on a single play but every so often (once or twice a year) we have an anomaly. So you can't change everything because of an anomaly.

If you are not afraid of betting 50 units you are wagering way way too small on all of your other plays.

One thing I am dabbling with is creating a separate bank for gaining lost units. (and I'm speaking out of my butt here, have not worked this out in detail) The problem with putting a missed unit on a "A" game is that unit can quickly turn into multiple units because of losses.

SO - Why not try to get one unit back a day by putting a little extra on the low juice games like -130 or less. That way if you do lose that 1/3 unit you wagered will not all of a sudden become a burden if it loses. Just keep track on the mini-units on a separate spreadsheet.

I also like the parlay where you have a -375 game.

I mean the system is back tested to be played a certain way.

is it? are you sure?

**skyscrapers** · 04-29-13, 05:31 PM

For the 'P' systems, for example we have a P3 fading Matt Cain today. I plays ARI with 'Matt Cain' must start'. Because this is a pitcher system I didn't want to play 'action' and it doesn't matter if Ian Kennedy starts or not as long as Cain starts. Anybody else doing it this way??

**samrock67** · 04-29-13, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by skyscrapers

For the 'P' systems, for example we have a P3 fading Matt Cain today. I plays ARI with 'Matt Cain' must start'. Because this is a pitcher system I didn't want to play 'action' and it doesn't matter if Ian Kennedy starts or not as long as Cain starts. Anybody else doing it this way??

I do it that way also, and if I had to guess, that's probably the right way to do it...it IS pitcher-based, so even on a fade, we still want the pitcher we are fading to be pitching.

**Stifler** · 04-30-13, 02:10 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

29.04.2013

S1

(B Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,781 3,649u

S2

(A Bet) Cle fade: Kansas City 1,658 1,52u

S3

(A Bet) SD fade: Cubs 1,685 1,46u
(A Bet) Cubs: Cubs 1,685 1,46u

P3

(A Bet) M.Cain fade: Arizona 1,943 1,06u

records:
S1: W 5 | L 0 (+5,00 units)
S2: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
S3: W 47 | L 1 (+10,497 units)
P1: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
P2: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)

pending:
- P1 T.Hudson, C Bet on next start
- P2 T.Hudson, C Bet on next start
- P1 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- S1 NYY, B Bet on 07.05.2013
- S2 Phil fade, C Bet on 30.04.2013
- S1 Stl, C Bet on 30.04.2013
- S1 SD fade, B Bet on 03.05.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 10.05.2013
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 04-30-13, 03:50 AM

30.04.2013

S1

(C Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,781 3,649u | St.Louis 1,758 8,574u

S2

(C Bet) Phil fade: NY Mets 1,719 1,39u | NY Mets 2,06 2,255u | Cleveland - waiting on line movement

S3

(A Bet) CHW fade: Texas 1,503 1,99u
(A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,503 1,99u

P1

(C Bet) T.Hudson: Atl -1,5 2,41 0,709u | Atl -1,5 2,37 1,247u | Atlanta -1,5 2,90 1,556u

P2

(C Bet) T.Hudson: Atl 1,82 1,22u | Atl 1,855 2,596u | Atlanta 1,877 5,491u

P3

(A Bet) J.Lester: Boston 1,794 1,26u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Lakey** · 04-30-13, 03:55 AM

Sorry, ignore this

**olmec** · 04-30-13, 04:53 AM

Ignore What? Today's games?

**Lakey** · 04-30-13, 05:56 AM

My post. I originally thought Stifler missed a play but I was wrong so deleted what I wrote.

**Wallco99** · 04-30-13, 07:49 AM

I believe the T. Hudson P1 and P2 bets should be (C) bets, correct?

**samrock67** · 04-30-13, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

I believe the T. Hudson P1 and P2 bets should be (C) bets, correct?

Yea, he mistyped it.

**DocZ** · 04-30-13, 08:49 AM

I am not sure about everyone else, but my spreadsheet is nasty.

I looked and it says I have 48 units outstanding at this point with current and open series.

Need a bunch of these "C" bets to cash!

**Stifler** · 04-30-13, 05:15 PM

- Cleveland line added.

30.04.2013

S1

(C Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,781 3,649u | St.Louis 1,758 8,574u

S2

(C Bet) Phil fade: NY Mets 1,719 1,39u | NY Mets 2,06 2,255u | Cleveland 1,99 4,692u

S3

(A Bet) CHW fade: Texas 1,503 1,99u
(A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,503 1,99u

P1

(C Bet) T.Hudson: Atl -1,5 2,41 0,709u | Atl -1,5 2,37 1,247u | Atlanta -1,5 2,90 1,556u

P2

(C Bet) T.Hudson: Atl 1,82 1,22u | Atl 1,855 2,596u | Atlanta 1,877 5,491u

P3

(A Bet) J.Lester: Boston 1,794 1,26u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Greg242** · 04-30-13, 09:49 PM

Great day guys!

**Wallco99** · 04-30-13, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by Greg242

Great day guys!

Incredible. I am playing 5 systems and today went 14-1 with several C bets and one D bet. Best day of the year to date. Damn Lester blew a perfect day. Lol.

**Bawth** · 04-30-13, 10:44 PM

Hey Wallco, Which chases are you doing?

**DocZ** · 04-30-13, 10:48 PM

Yes, that was an amazing day and much needed for my bankroll!!

**Grinder12000** · 04-30-13, 11:02 PM

I tell ya - I'm starting a BIG chase on the Brewers starting May 13. 4 game series against the Pirates and since 2007 they are 46-7 vs. Pirates. If you are a Brewer fan you know how the Brewers just totally dominate this team for some reason.

**Jellybeans** · 04-30-13, 11:05 PM

Yeahh!!!
4 "C" bet wins
Almost perfect night!!!
Nice way to close out the month.

**Wallco99** · 05-01-13, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by Bawth

Hey Wallco, Which chases are you doing?

I'm sorry, it's only 4 systems, I forgot that I am not playing JM this year. I am playing this system (the way it is SUPPOSED to be played), an over/under system that I've been toying with, and two other smaller systems that I came up with 2 1/2 years ago that have personally been doing very well for me all three years. They are both low line and +money bet systems. They involve a lot of line watching up til game time and I do miss bets on occasion during the day. For these reasons I will not post the systems because I won't be able to keep posts and updates accurate. Too much to explain so I am just playing myself for now. Still working on a system that I can post though.

**Grinder12000** · 05-01-13, 06:05 AM

I am playing this system (the way it is SUPPOSED to be played),

Well - I assume that the person that knows this system the BEST, and knows it's downside and upside would be Stiffler, so I tend to trust his knowledge more then relying on past back testing.

**Lakey** · 05-01-13, 06:19 AM

I'm also playing the system the way it's been tested. Parlays are negative EV so I don't play them but each to their own. In the end as long as we're all making money it doesn't matter how you choose to bet.

**Stifler** · 05-01-13, 06:24 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

30.04.2013

S1

(C Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,781 3,649u | St.Louis 1,758 8,574u

S2

(C Bet) Phil fade: NY Mets 1,719 1,39u | NY Mets 2,06 2,255u | Cleveland 1,99 4,692u

S3

(A Bet) CHW fade: Texas 1,503 1,99u
(A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,503 1,99u

P1

(C Bet) T.Hudson: Atl -1,5 2,41 0,709u | Atl -1,5 2,37 1,247u | Atlanta -1,5 2,90 1,556u

P2

(C Bet) T.Hudson: Atl 1,82 1,22u | Atl 1,855 2,596u | Atlanta 1,877 5,491u

P3

(A Bet) J.Lester: Boston 1,794 1,26u

records:
S1: W 6 | L 0 (+6,00 units)
S2: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
S3: W 49 | L 1 (+12,497 units)
P1: W 5 | L 0 (+5,00 units)
P2: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)

pending:
- P1 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- S1 NYY, B Bet on 07.05.2013
- S1 SD fade, B Bet on 03.05.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 10.05.2013
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 J.Lester, B Bet on next start on the road

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3