Very nice D bet win!
Time for some magaritas, happy cinco de Mayo
Time for some magaritas, happy cinco de Mayo
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Awsome!!:-DComment -
records:Originally posted by Stifler
S1: W 9 | L 0 (+9,00 units)
S2: W 6 | L 0 (+6,00 units)
S3: W 52 | L 1 (+15,497 units)
P1: W 5 | L 0 (+5,00 units)
P2: W 5 | L 0 (+5,00 units)
P3: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
pending:
- P1 M.Buehrle, D Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, D Bet on next start
- S1 NYY, B Bet on 07.05.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 10.05.2013
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 J.Lester, C Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil, B Bet on 06.05.2013
- P3 C.Sabathia, B Bet on next start @home
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06.05.2013
S2
(B Bet) Phil: Phillies 1,769 1,30u | Phillies - waiting on line movement
S3
(A Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,833 1,20u
(A Bet) Bos: Boston - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) Tor fade: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u
(A Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u
P1
(D Bet) M.Buehrle: Tor 2,00 1,00u | Tor 2,30 1,538u| Tor 2,24 2,853u | Toronto 2,38 4,631u
(A Bet) M.Buehrle fade: Tampa Bay -1,5 2,40 0,714u
P2
(D Bet) M.Buehrle: Tor2,00 1,00u | Tor 2,30 1,538u | Tor 2,24 2,853u | Toronto 2,38 4,631u
(A Bet) M.Buehrle fade: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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Well, this is going to take a little math won't it with TB vs. Toronto being 6 games
figure out how much you are putting on each team. Subtract the little from the big.
then put the left over on the big team. Game is played and continue as if you had wagered full amount on the loser. And in your book put down what you would have won if you had wagered the full amount.Comment -
Edit: sorry for clutter I am pretty sure I figured it out with grinders explanation.Comment -
I'll get my wagers in and explain how do to those 6 games. Little trickier for me as I missed that first M.Buehrle playsComment -
This is actually bad advice for MLB betting. You know I was a big fan of skipping head-head bets in NBA, but do not agree it should be played this way in MLB.Originally posted by Grinder12000
When we we're betting NBA games, both sides were always -110, meaning one side would win, one side would lose, and we would DEFINITELY lose money on that game if we bet both sides. By skipping, once both teams eventually got their win, we would still be up a total of +2 units, and if one of the teams happened to lose their series, it would have cost us less. However, when we are betting both sides of an MLB game, one team is (-money) and the other team is (+money), meaning that once both teams get their win, we will be up MORE than 2 units, because the team on the +money will generate a larger profit than 1 unit.
Tampa bay is the favorite and they are on all (A) bets, while Toronto, the +money team, is on some (D) bets. If Tampa Bay was to win today, and no games were skipped, because Toronto is +money bet, NO extra money would be lost because their would be ZERO juice for these Toronto bets, and all of the TB bets would have been played and won. In this scenario, skipping and not skipping would net the exact same amount of money at the end of the day. However if Toronto happens to win, you would still have three more chances for TB to get their +1 unit, but you would be costing yourself .35 units for every unit you skipped on Toronto since they are +135 today. (3 units skipped at $100 units would cost you $105 in bonus money above and beyond the 3 units).
This may be confusing, and if need be I will explain it better, but the only way to make skipping bets more or at least equal to not skipping bets, is if the dog team was to win today with these skipped bets, then on the next bet for the favorite you would not only play it for the 2 units, but also for the extra .35 units (for each unit that you skipped) that you missed out on by skipping all or portion the dog team's win. You would have to do this for each game the favorite loses in their current series until they finally get their win, and a four game loss betting like this will end up costing you substantially more while only netting you the same profit if they win as it would if you never skipped any bets. Costing more to win the same or less is never a good strategy.Comment -
Can someone explain why we are chasing buehrle? I'm a little confused, and yes I've read posts 1-3. Just thought we faded losing streak pitchers.Comment -
- S3 Bos line added.
06.05.2013
S2
(B Bet) Phil: Phillies 1,769 1,30u | Phillies - waiting on line movement
S3
(A Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,833 1,20u
(A Bet) Bos: Boston 1,50 2,00u
(A Bet) Tor fade: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u
(A Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u
P1
(D Bet) M.Buehrle: Tor 2,00 1,00u | Tor 2,30 1,538u| Tor 2,24 2,853u | Toronto 2,38 4,631u
(A Bet) M.Buehrle fade: Tampa Bay -1,5 2,40 0,714u
P2
(D Bet) M.Buehrle: Tor2,00 1,00u | Tor 2,30 1,538u | Tor 2,24 2,853u | Toronto 2,38 4,631u
(A Bet) M.Buehrle fade: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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The new bet is a fade, the old one (D) is the chase.Originally posted by SwarlesComment -
But when was he ever winning? HahaOriginally posted by Wallco99Comment -
First off let me say I am not knocking you Grinder. I love a bunch of your analysis.Originally posted by Grinder12000
I would be interested to see how you can do this.
I can't see a mathematical way to do this unless you knew the outcome since we are always playing to win 1 unit.
I can see a way to protect from losses, but like Wallco is saying, I think that defeats the purpose of the system.
PS. I wish you knew the outcome, then we would all be set!!
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That's a good point. Toronto won the first three games he started, but he only got 1 win. The rules say a PITCHER has to be on a winning/losing streak to make their next start a play. He only has one win, why in the hell would they have been a play three games ago? Who knows, the rules are never clear in these systems, NBA was vague as well. On the contrary, he is currently on a 2 game losing streak, so why are we starting a new fade today. Either the rules need to be written more clearly or somebody is missing shit.Originally posted by SwarlesComment -
Well I'm hoping for some bullshit Ws because I'm already on the jays. HahaComment -
I already won the Buehrle chases back in game 2 so I'm in the clear on that. I was at work for those bets and bet both Toronto game 2 against the Yankees, forgetting it was a pitcher chase. Luckily for me, Toronto won. But I still don't see why they were plays anyway.Originally posted by SwarlesComment -
covers.comOriginally posted by Swarles
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/players/logs/pitcher/2013/log41057.html
...same list was backtested the years beforeComment -
Okay. So it's he pitches and the team wins that's a streak.. I feel you with that reference being made, by the way, never would argue for the sake of proving you wrong. More because I did not understand your system completely. Good luck and let's score a winner tonight!Comment -
Well then you have to change your rules to state that if a team wins/loses three games in a row that the pitcher STARTS, then it is a play, apparently the pitcher doesn't have to be the pitcher of record as you state in the system rules in the opening posts. Buerhle is 1-2 on the season. He would have to be at least 3-3 for these two plays to be official as specified by system rules. Can you please clarify this, because this is a major discrepancy. Covers.com lists the starting pitchers, not the pitchers of record. I am not arguing whichever way you wish to do it, I just want to know which way it is because now it is very confusing.Originally posted by StiflerComment -
Maybe I'm wrong but my understanding is if the pitcher starts even though he may not be credited with the W or L that is how Stifler is basing the pitcher chase, I agree it does say that when he has a streak of 3 in a row but after the 1st chase started that's how I interpeted it......His first 3 starts he has 1 win and 2 ND that they won hence starting the chase....his last 3 starts they have lost starting the fadeOriginally posted by Wallco99Comment -
In general it's the same as the sportsbooks do...If you play a certain pitcher to start and he does and say he comes out in the 8th inning with them winning but they eventually lose you still lose the bet....it doesn't end when the closer comes in....he's basing his pitcher chase on the starting pitcher listed....not the credited winning or losing pitcherComment -
the important thing is he has to start.
But dont make it too complicated. Just go with the covers list (like posted above) and ur fine.Comment -
- S2 Phil line added.
06.05.2013
S2
(B Bet) Phil: Phillies 1,769 1,30u | Phillies 2,28 1,80u
S3
(A Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,833 1,20u
(A Bet) Bos: Boston 1,50 2,00u
(A Bet) Tor fade: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u
(A Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u
P1
(D Bet) M.Buehrle: Tor 2,00 1,00u | Tor 2,30 1,538u| Tor 2,24 2,853u | Toronto 2,38 4,631u
(A Bet) M.Buehrle fade: Tampa Bay -1,5 2,40 0,714u
P2
(D Bet) M.Buehrle: Tor2,00 1,00u | Tor 2,30 1,538u | Tor 2,24 2,853u | Toronto 2,38 4,631u
(A Bet) M.Buehrle fade: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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WELL being out of touch all day, I'm catching up. HOWEVER on one hand I agree with Wallco and I could have given bad advice. I've been working it out with no good way. Ill read Wallcos advice further.
i did a truth table and my brain got clogged up. Sorry. I theory it seem so simple until I worked it out and then I just got confused.
so Wallco. Just play as posted?Comment -
Just think if Buerle was actually worth a shit the Blue Jays would have a legitimate shot to win this game.
Edit: They still have a shot.. they need at least one more run there with runners on 3rd and 1st dohComment -
Boom!
Nice stifler!Comment -
so did i lose a little by not betting on rays and taking difference on blue jays? Oh well regardless i am glad they wonComment -
Yes, you lost an extra .35 units for every unit you canceled out.Originally posted by dalogesterComment -
records:Originally posted by Stifler
S1: W 9 | L 0 (+9,00 units)
S2: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
S3: W 53 | L 1 (+16,497 units)
P1: W 6 | L 0 (+6,00 units)
P2: W 6 | L 0 (+6,00 units)
P3: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
pending:
- S1 NYY, B Bet on 07.05.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 10.05.2013
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 J.Lester, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 C.Sabathia, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 M.Buehrle fade, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle fade, B Bet on next start
- S3 Cin, B Bet on 07.05.2013
- S3 TB, B Bet on 07.05.2013
- S3 Tor fade, B Bet on 07.05.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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07.05.2013
S1
(B Bet) NYY: NY Yankees 2,10 0,909u | Yankees 2,04 1,836u
S3
(B Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,833 1,20u | Cincinnati 1,8332,641u
(B Bet) Tor fade: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u | Tampa Bay 1,781 3,201u
(B Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u | Tampa Bay 1,781 3,201u
P1
(A Bet) K.Kendrick: Phillies 2,19 0,84u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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Where was that coming from ??? I have a lot of closed off NYY s1Bs already(B Bet) NYY: NY Yankees 2,10 0,909u | Yankees 2,04 1,836uComment -
It's an away chase.Comment -
A bet April 24th.Originally posted by Grinder12000Comment -
Originally posted by Grinder12000
The way I do it is as follows: -
In this example I have 3 A bets starting on Tampa which total a stake of 4.50 units @ 1.667 to win 3 units
I have 2 chases running onto Toronto where i am trying to win 12.78 units so they need a stake of 9.262 units @ 2.38
Start with the smaller bet
Tampa 4.50 units to win 3 units
the reverse of this is
Toronto 3 units to win 4.50 units
So neither of these bets need to be placed
But we still need to win another 8.28 units on toronto (12.78-4.50)
so the bet we need to place is to win 8.28 units on toronto @ 2.38 which means a stake of 6 units
What it means in total is that in my books I record the tampa bets not placed as above and the offsetting toronto bets not placed and the actual bet of 6 units.
The benefit of netting out is that we save some juice and I've saved it on the team with the bigger units which is helpful if this had gone on to be a C or a D bet
The Toronto bet in my books is 3+6 units = 9 units to win 4.50+8.28 = 12.78 units so the implied price is 2.42 because of the saved juice and the stake I needed to put in my books was 9 units instead of 9.262.
Hope that makes sense!Comment -
Actually, you lost money doing this if/when TB wins their series. You will not recover the extra units that would have been generated on the +money Toronto bet for those units you canceled, unless your B bets on TB not only include the standard (A) bet amount, but also those extra units generated by the +money bet. Let me show you below:Originally posted by fizzer555
Say we have the following:
(D) bet for Toronto in the amount of $1000 @ +135 (which is 900 lost on A,B,C + $100)
(A) bet for TB for $100 @ -145
(A) bet for TB for $100 @ -145
(A) bet for TB for $100 @ -145
If we cancel bets:
1) Toronto wins and Tampa Bay wins B,C, or D
Toronto 700 @135 = 945-900 = +45
Tampa Bay = 100 * 3 series = 300
Total for the 4 series = $345 ($86.25 profit per series)
2) Toronto wins, and TB loses all series (assuming all @ -145)
Toronto = 700 @135 = 945-900 = +45
Tampa Bay = -2242 * 3 series = -6726 (Losses on B,C,D skipped A)
Total for the 4 series = -6681 (-$1670.25 loss per series)
3) TB wins and Toronto loses
Toronto = -1600
Tampa Bay = 0* 3 series = 0 (Skipped bet)
Total for the 4 series = -1600 (-$400 loss per series)
If we Place all bets:
1) Toronto wins and Tampa Bay wins B,C, or D
Toronto 1000 @135 = 1350-900 = +450
Tampa Bay = 100 * 3 series = 300
Total for the 4 series = $750 (+187.50 profit per series)
2) Toronto wins, and TB loses all series (assuming all @ -145)
Toronto 1000 @135 = 1350-900 = +450
Tampa Bay = -3503 * 3 series = -10509
Total for the 4 series = -10060 (-$2514.9 loss per series)
3) TB wins and Toronto loses
Toronto = -1900
Tampa Bay = 100* 3 series = 300
Total for the 4 series = -1600 (-$400 loss per series)
The ONLY time skipping series is beneficial, when at least one team is +money, is if the favorite team loses it's series. Any other scenario, the profits are equal or greater by placing ALL bets rather than skipping. You just have to decide what is more important to you personally, making MORE on your wins, or losing LESS on your losses. I prefer the wins since they happen a lot more often and generally it's not 1 series canceling out 3 as in this example.Comment
