mlb chase 2013

**fizzer555** · 05-07-13, 11:29 AM

Say we have the following:
(D) bet for Toronto in the amount of $1000 @ +135 (which is 900 lost on A,B,C + $100)
(A) bet for TB for $100 @ -145
(A) bet for TB for $100 @ -145
(A) bet for TB for $100 @ -145

The ONLY time skipping series is beneficial, when at least one team is +money, is if the favorite team loses it's series. Any other scenario, the profits are equal or greater by placing ALL bets rather than skipping. You just have to decide what is more important to you personally, making MORE on your wins, or losing LESS on your losses. I prefer the wins since they happen a lot more often and generally it's not 1 series canceling out 3 as in this example.[/QUOTE]

Wallco, I'm not suggesting we skip any bets.In my spreadsheets I would follow the chases exactly looking to win $100 on each. All I'm saying is that when you have bets on both sides, net them off to save yourself some juice.
In your example you seem to be betting Toronto for 1000 @ 1.35 and you earn more than the chase target of $100 because of the + price. I would be staking 740 @1.35 to win 1000 for $100 profit.

Using your example I would take the smaller tampa bay bet
Tampa Bay stake 435 to win 300
reverse it
Toronto stake 300 to win 435
Still need to win another 565 on Toronto (1000-435) so need to bet 419@1.35 to do that.

Net effect is in my books I have bet toronto at 719 stake (419+300) to win 1000 (effective odds of 1.39) so I've reduced my stake from 740 to 719 by netting and reducing juice, but my target wins of $100 per chase are unchanged, nothing is being skipped and all chases are entered in my spreadsheet.

**Wallco99** · 05-07-13, 01:10 PM

*****

**Wallco99** · 05-07-13, 01:13 PM

You are looking to WIN 1 unit regardless of whether it is a +money bet or not, most of us don't play that way, we RISK 1 unit on +money bets. The bonus money on the +money bets is the reason we play them. If you are happy with less profit that is OK, but the player out there, which is most of us, who RISKS 1 unit on +money bets will have a much higher reward at season's end pending the losses on the head-head games.

**fizzer555** · 05-07-13, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

You are looking to WIN 1 unit regardless of whether it is a +money bet or not, most of us don't play that way, we RISK 1 unit on +money bets. The bonus money on the +money bets is the reason we play them. If you are happy with less profit that is OK, but the player out there, which is most of us, who RISKS 1 unit on +money bets will have a much higher reward at season's end pending the losses on the head-head games.

OK, I understand Wallco that I might be in the minority - but I'm playing it the way Stifler lays it out and plays it - but it wasn't the point I was making - just saying that you should just work out the net amount you need to bet with your bookmaker, its to your advantage.

So to do your example your way....

take the smaller tampa bay bet
Tampa Bay stake 435 to win 300
reverse it
Toronto stake 300 to win 435
Still need to BET another 700 with the bookmaker on Toronto (1000-300) @1.35 which gives +945.

Effective bet on Toronto is now 1000 for +1380 (435+945) so I've effectively got odds of 1.38 instead of 1.35 on toronto and made more profit.

**Wallco99** · 05-07-13, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by fizzer555

OK, I understand Wallco that I might be in the minority - but I'm playing it the way Stifler lays it out and plays it - but it wasn't the point I was making - just saying that you should just work out the net amount you need to bet with your bookmaker, its to your advantage.

So to do your example your way....

take the smaller tampa bay bet
Tampa Bay stake 435 to win 300
reverse it
Toronto stake 300 to win 435
Still need to BET another 700 with the bookmaker on Toronto (1000-300) @1.35 which gives +945.

Effective bet on Toronto is now 1000 for +1380 (435+945) so I've effectively got odds of 1.38 instead of 1.35 on toronto and made more profit.

For starters, you can't just reverse it, one line is -145 and the other is +135. So risking 435 to win 300 will not be 300 to win 435 the other way, If you get lines like that, don't EVER leave that book.

**fizzer555** · 05-07-13, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

For starters, you can't just reverse it, one line is -145 and the other is +135. So risking 435 to win 300 will not be 300 to win 435 the other way, If you get lines like that, don't EVER leave that book.

????? Of course you can reverse it - thats netting out the smaller bet to save the difference between the +135 and -145

Place both bets:-
Tampa Bay bet 435 @ -145
Toronto bet 1000 @ +135
If Tampa Win net result is you lose 700 (+300-1000)
If Toronto win net result is you win 915 (+1350-435)

Work out the NET amount to bet
Toronto bet 700 @ +135
If Tampa win net result is you lose 700
If Toronto win net result is you win 945

Basically you have got 30 more profit on Toronto if they win with no greater loss on Tampa if they win.

**Wallco99** · 05-07-13, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by fizzer555

????? Of course you can reverse it - thats netting out the smaller bet to save the difference between the +135 and -145

Place both bets:-
Tampa Bay bet 435 @ -145
Toronto bet 1000 @ +135
If Tampa Win net result is you lose 700 (+300-1000)
If Toronto win net result is you win 915 (+1350-435)

Work out the NET amount to bet
Toronto bet 700 @ +135
If Tampa win net result is you lose 700
If Toronto win net result is you win 945

Basically you have got 30 more profit on Toronto if they win with no greater loss on Tampa if they win.

You are assuming both series end at that point. However, TB will have three more chances to make back that extra 30 that was lost, however, the extra money that was lost by reducing the +money bet will NEVER be recovered unless even more money is placed on TB than just the amount lost in (A). I have been playing these +money bets for years, and I even attempted it your way early on, but playing all bets is definitely more profitable, as I said, aside from the losses. There is a way of skipping bets, but the lost +money profits must be incorporated into the losing teams remaining bets, and that is just to attain the SAME profit, not the way you laid out. Your goal is 1 unit, mine is 1+ units on the +money bets so it doesn't really matter any more. I am done arguing with you. Play it however you wish, as long as we all make money, but I will make more!

**tommpae** · 05-08-13, 07:11 AM

Heavy jucie on tampa today!

**Grinder12000** · 05-08-13, 10:24 AM

Why did Stiffler put 6.41 on Comci yesterday. ??

**skyscrapers** · 05-08-13, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Why did Stiffler put 6.41 on Comci yesterday. ??

It's 2.641

**dalogester** · 05-08-13, 11:42 AM

Any early game plays?

**Grinder12000** · 05-08-13, 12:39 PM

I hope not.

**Stifler** · 05-08-13, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

07.05.2013

S1

(B Bet) NYY: NY Yankees 2,10 0,909u | Yankees 2,04 1,836u

S3

(B Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,833 1,20u | Cincinnati 1,8332,641u
(B Bet) Tor fade: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u | Tampa Bay 1,781 3,201u
(B Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,667 1,50u | Tampa Bay 1,781 3,201u

P1

(A Bet) K.Kendrick: Phillies 2,19 0,84u

records:
S1: W 9 | L 0 (+9,00 units)
S2: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
S3: W 54 | L 1 (+17,497 units)
P1: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
P2: W 6 | L 0 (+6,00 units)
P3: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)

pending:
- S1 NYY, C Bet on 08.05.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 10.05.2013
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 J.Lester, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 C.Sabathia, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 M.Buehrle fade, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle fade, B Bet on next start
- S3 TB, C Bet on 08.05.2013
- S3 Tor fade, C Bet on 08.05.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 05-08-13, 02:27 PM

08.05.2013

S1

(C Bet) NYY: NY Yankees 2,10 0,909u | Yankees 2,04 1,836u | Yankees 2,21 3,095u

S3
(C Bet) Tor fade: Tampa 1,667 1,50u | Tampa 1,781 3,201u | Tampa 1,532 10,716u
(C Bet) TB: Tampa 1,667 1,50u | Tampa 1,781 3,201u | Tampa 1,532 10,716u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 05-08-13, 02:28 PM

btw i forgot to play S3 NYY fade yesterday, had them on my potential list but didnt add it here. Shit happens...

**chound** · 05-08-13, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

btw i forgot to play S3 NYY fade yesterday, had them on my potential list but didnt add it here. Shit happens...

Thanks for being honest and keeping it real. Good luck and thanks for your hard work

**Wallco99** · 05-08-13, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

btw i forgot to play S3 NYY fade yesterday, had them on my potential list but didnt add it here. Shit happens...

I've run several systems in here, and honestly, I don't know how you keep track of this one as well as you do anyway. Forgotten plays will happen, don't sweat it. Good job.

**Grinder12000** · 05-08-13, 04:09 PM

I've missed NFL games in my system and I only have 2 or 3 A WEEK. LOL

**dalogester** · 05-08-13, 06:24 PM

good start to our 36 unit C bet... yikes

**illisdre** · 05-08-13, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by dalogester

good start to our 36 unit C bet... yikes

4:24.. im guessing that must have been 1st inning.
I saw that looming disaster .. and hedged half my bet with a huge juice markup.
terrible decision as it turns out.

ohwell .. TB going strong.

**Jellybeans** · 05-08-13, 10:47 PM

Yeahhhh!!
Huge wins!!!

**illisdre** · 05-08-13, 10:55 PM

congrats guys.
shoulda parlayed that!

**tommpae** · 05-09-13, 05:15 AM

This is awsome!!:-D
Going to spoil my girfriend this weekemd whit all this money being made here!:-)

**Stifler** · 05-09-13, 06:14 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

records:
S1: W 10 | L 0 (+10,00 units)
S2: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
S3: W 56 | L 1 (+19,497 units)
P1: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
P2: W 6 | L 0 (+6,00 units)
P3: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)

pending:
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 10.05.2013
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 J.Lester, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 C.Sabathia, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 M.Buehrle fade, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle fade, B Bet on next start

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Grinder12000** · 05-09-13, 06:27 AM

Wait until you have your first 60 unit bet. LOL

**Stifler** · 05-09-13, 07:21 AM

09.05.2013

P2

(A Bet) J.Guthrie: Kansas City - no line up atm

P3

(A Bet) J.Vargas fade: Houston 2,36 0,735u

potential plays:
- P3 Pit fade, if line +100 or more

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 05-09-13, 09:33 AM

- KC line added.

09.05.2013

P2

(A Bet) J.Guthrie: Kansas City 2,03 0,971u

P3

(A Bet) J.Vargas fade: Houston 2,36 0,735u

potential plays:
- P3 Pit fade, if line +100 or more

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Grinder12000** · 05-09-13, 10:05 AM

Man I've been having a difference in opinion with a friend about canceling bets. Are there any short arguments I can use to sway him? He says we HAVE to cancel.

**Stifler** · 05-09-13, 10:38 AM

And im saying play both as listed. Juice just gets important if we are having a losing series. Wont happen that often in a 4 game chase.

**Grinder12000** · 05-09-13, 11:20 AM

And im saying play both as listed. Juice just gets important if we are having a losing series. Wont happen that often in a 4 game chase.

Well - that is the simple answer but he has gotten anal . . . . I think it's just wrapping your brain about this being a CHASE and not an individual bet.

**dalogester** · 05-09-13, 11:39 AM

How about you both do it your own ways and see which comes out with more profit on the season?

**Grinder12000** · 05-09-13, 11:45 AM

How about you both do it your own ways and see which comes out with more profit on the season?

LOL - or better yet - HE can figure out the math for winning 1 unit after canceling out that FUBR mess of 6 games the other day!

**alexknyc** · 05-09-13, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Well - that is the simple answer but he has gotten anal . . . . I think it's just wrapping your brain about this being a CHASE and not an individual bet.

I don't know whether I'm right but I'll cancel when the odds are equal (like both sides being -110 against the spread in basketball) because it saves me juice. In baseball, when I'm on both sides, if I cancel, I miss out on extra money if the underdog wins (a team at +137 wins me 1.37 units not just 1). Of course, if you bet to just win one unit, your math will be different.

**Wallco99** · 05-09-13, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Man I've been having a difference in opinion with a friend about canceling bets. Are there any short arguments I can use to sway him? He says we HAVE to cancel.

I already typed my argument for playing ALL bets in +money situations. Check out my post #875. The only time it is not beneficial to play both sides is if the favorite team loses it's whole 4 game chase. Any other scenario, you will be costing yourself money everytime you cancel bets and dog teams win.

**Wallco99** · 05-09-13, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by alexknyc

I don't know whether I'm right but I'll cancel when the odds are equal (like both sides being -110 against the spread in basketball) because it saves me juice. In baseball, when I'm on both sides, if I cancel, I miss out on extra money if the underdog wins (a team at +137 wins me 1.37 units not just 1). Of course, if you bet to just win one unit, your math will be different.

You are 100% correct.