mlb chase 2013

[knugen]

Aahhh damn, played giants tonight on RL to get some of the losses back, cause i played RL on fridays game also. And what happened pitcher
change and my bets cancelled!!!!!!!

[shysta]

Aahhh damn, played giants tonight on RL to get some of the losses back, cause i played RL on fridays game also. And what happened pitcher
change and my bets cancelled!!!!!!!

same here, what bs, and they won.

[Stifler]

20.04.2013

S1

(A Bet) Stl: St.Louis 2,25 0,80u

S3

(B Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u
(A Bet) Bos: Boston 1,73 1,37u
(A Bet) CHW: Chicago White Sox 1,625 1,60u

P1

(A Bet) M.Buehrle: Toronto 2,00 1,00u

P2

(A Bet) M.Buehrle: Toronto 2,00 1,00u

records:
S1: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
S2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
S3: W 34 | L 1 (-2,503 units)
P1: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
P2: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


pending:
- P2 Masterson, B Bet on next start
- P1 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
- P2 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
- P1 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- S3 NYY fade, C Bet on 21.04.2013
- S3 CHW, B Bet on 21.04.2013


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

- normally every odd <+100 on the P1 system should be played on the RL (like today). Somehow pinnacle dont offer -1,5 odds on dogs, something i didnt consider at the beginning. But im fine with that, as it should just be the case when the the odds are pretty even for both teams(probably in the 1,90 - 2,00 area).

21.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
(B Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u

P1

(A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

P2

(A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[chrizgod]

- normally every odd <+100 on the P1 system should be played on the RL (like today). Somehow pinnacle dont offer -1,5 odds on dogs, something i didnt consider at the beginning. But im fine with that, as it should just be the case when the the odds are pretty even for both teams(probably in the 1,90 - 2,00 area).

21.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
(B Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u

P1

(A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

P2

(A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

hey Stiffler, pinnacle offers alternate runlines. They are just not up yet.

[Stifler]

hey Stiffler, pinnacle offers alternate runlines. They are just not up yet.

i will have a look at it today, but im pretty sure it wasnt offered yesterday for Toronto.

[kosti]

Bet365 is a good option for underdog run lines. They have lines for just about anything

[huntley]

so take Det -1.5 for the P1? Its up right now at 2.52 on pinnacle stif.

[Grinder12000]

Lakey

It's poor bankroll bankroll management to start this system with only 100 units, especially when it was advised to start with more.

Grinder

Actually the advice was 75ish.

Lakey

You must be reading a different thread to me.

Stifler

i advice to start with atleast 75 units, a bankroll of 100 units would be better

ANYWAY - I was asked about the largest "D" bet. This does not take into account 3 Parlay "D" bets from last year. I'll have to work on that.

I tend to stay away from ridiculous wager sizes when they are an anomaly. There comes a time when you have to use common sense. In golf it's called "course management", in wagering it's called bankroll management. I call it common sense.

Yea - the "D" bet won but I don't want to risk 60 units on basically a coin flip.

[DustyDiamond]

so take Det -1.5 for the P1? Its up right now at 2.52 on pinnacle stif.

Why would you take Det -1.5 when you can get it for +1.5?

[DollarBill10]

- normally every odd <+100 on the P1 system should be played on the RL (like today). Somehow pinnacle dont offer -1,5 odds on dogs, something i didnt consider at the beginning. But im fine with that, as it should just be the case when the the odds are pretty even for both teams(probably in the 1,90 - 2,00 area).

21.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
(B Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u

P1

(A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

P2

(A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

So how should we play the P1? What's everyone doing? Stifler...what are you going to do for tracking pruposes? This is the 1st I have heard mention of a RL with this system.

[Stifler]

- Toronto line updated.

21.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u | Toronto 1,709 6,178u
(B Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u

P1

(A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

P2

(A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

so take Det -1.5 for the P1? Its up right now at 2.52 on pinnacle stif.

your right, P1 play atm would be on Det -1,5, but i think i would wait a lil longer till gametime to see where the line is going.

im seeing it now @ pinnacle, thought it was listed on the drop-down menu aswell. If the line is <+100 on the P1 team play the Runline (-1,5). Remember the covers line indicates if the line is <+100 or not, cause i backtested there.

Why would you take Det -1.5 when you can get it for +1.5?

Cause system was backtested on the -1,5 runline for any covers line <+100 (for P1 only)

[Stifler]

ANYWAY - I was asked about the largest "D" bet. This does not take into account 3 Parlay "D" bets from last year. I'll have to work on that.

I tend to stay away from ridiculous wager sizes when they are an anomaly. There comes a time when you have to use common sense. In golf it's called "course management", in wagering it's called bankroll management. I call it common sense.

Yea - the "D" bet won but I don't want to risk 60 units on basically a coin flip.

Largest series loss i have backtested was 60,41 units.

And for the risked amount on 1 game im probably with u. I think i never would lay 60 units on 1 game. I think i will always do a small parlay in that case to reduce the juice, eventhough i may lose a series just because of the parlayed soccer game. These are situations u never wanna see, ur D bet is a winner but u ****** it up with the parlay (happend to me twice last year as i remember correctly, but i also saved units when the series lost that way, due to the fact i did a paraly to reduce the risked amount)

I just hope it doesnt get to that point that often. I mean we will face those situations on heavy favorites mostly on C, D bets. Mainly those series should be cleared earlier, but sooner or later, like yesterday, it gets to the point. In the end u gotta have to make a decision, however this may look like.

[Stifler]

atm the covers line for Detroit jumped back to +101. This means u should play the moneyline instead. That´s why it´s better to just wait a little longer till gametime.

[sportscreep1]

Stifler,
Correct on that your playing the P systems as 1/2 unit per?
Tia.

[samrock67]

Stifler-

Just curious- if there was a bet on a team that had a doubleheader that day, and they didn't cover on the first game, would you consider the 2nd game as the next bet in the chase, whether it was B, C, or D?

[Stifler]

Stifler-

Just curious- if there was a bet on a team that had a doubleheader that day, and they didn't cover on the first game, would you consider the 2nd game as the next bet in the chase, whether it was B, C, or D?

yes

Stifler,
Correct on that your playing the P systems as 1/2 unit per?
Tia.

yes

[DocZ]

Largest series loss i have backtested was 60,41 units.

And for the risked amount on 1 game im probably with u. I think i never would lay 60 units on 1 game. I think i will always do a small parlay in that case to reduce the juice, eventhough i may lose a series just because of the parlayed soccer game. These are situations u never wanna see, ur D bet is a winner but u ****** it up with the parlay (happend to me twice last year as i remember correctly, but i also saved units when the series lost that way, due to the fact i did a paraly to reduce the risked amount)

I just hope it doesnt get to that point that often. I mean we will face those situations on heavy favorites mostly on C, D bets. Mainly those series should be cleared earlier, but sooner or later, like yesterday, it gets to the point. In the end u gotta have to make a decision, however this may look like.

Thanks for the info guys! It's always nice to see the analysis.

[Grinder12000]

I do like the parlay idea and will follow your lead. Good idea.

[knugen]

2 runs for yanks cause of walks. Ridiculous

[dalogester]

Jays did it, phew.

[Stifler]

21.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u | Toronto 1,709 6,178u
(B Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u

P1

(A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

P2

(A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

records:
S1: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
S2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
S3: W 35 | L 1 (-1,503 units)
P1: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
P2: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


pending:
- P2 Masterson, B Bet on next start
- P1 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
- P2 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
- P1 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P1 D.Fister, B Bet on next start
- P2 D.Fister, B Bet on next start
- S3 CHW, C Bet on 22.04.2013



________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

22.04.2013

S1

(A Bet) Pit fade: Phillies 2,02 0,98u

S3

(C Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u| White Sox 2,01 6,36u

P2

(B Bet) Masterson: Cleveland 1,752 1,33u | Cleveland - waiting on line movement


potential plays:
- S3 Pit fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 Tor fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 Tex fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 SD, if line <+100


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Grinder12000]

Gotta root for The Sox - My brain still cramps at how to cancel out each game so I only bet a little on one team.

[DollarBill10]

So does/can anyone provide insight in how they play games when we are on both sides?

Thanks.

[tommpae]

when do we decide if the potenial plays are plays or not?...have to go sleep soon.

[DollarBill10]

Stifler usually waits until closer to game time.

[Stifler]

- S3 Tor fade added.

22.04.2013

S1

(A Bet) Pit fade: Phillies 2,02 0,98u

S3

(C Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u| White Sox 2,01 6,36u
(A Bet) Tor fade: Baltimore 1,84 1,19u

P2

(B Bet) Masterson: Cleveland 1,752 1,33u | Cleveland - waiting on line movement



potential plays:
- S3 Pit fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 Tex fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 SD, if line <+100



________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Grinder12000]

So does/can anyone provide insight in how they play games when we are on both sides?

That has been my question. NBA and NHL were easy - I'm still working on a good simple math solution.

Here is one solution for Americans

-108 = (100/1.09)=.0.925
-105 = (100/1.05)=0.9523


Whitesox -108 4.32u to win 4.00u
Cleveland -105 2.625u to win 2.50u

Play it as is
Sox win (+4.00u - 2.50u)= +1.50 units
Cleveland wins (+2.625 - 4.32)= -1.695units

But you can do this
Subtract what you need to win 4.00 - 2.50 = 1.5u
Multiple that 1.5 *0.925 = 1.62u

So now you have one bet 1.62u to win 1.50u on the Sox

Sox win (+1.5 - 0)= +1.50
Cleveland wins (0 - 1.62)= -1.62 Instead of losing 1.695 you lose 1.62

Not that much if you are betting $1 but betting $100 it can add up.

There HAS to be an easier way

[Stifler]

- S3 Tex fade & Cleveland line added

22.04.2013

S1

(A Bet) Pit fade: Phillies 2,02 0,98u

S3

(C Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u| White Sox 2,01 6,36u
(A Bet) Tor fade: Baltimore 1,84 1,19u
(A Bet) Tex fade: LA Angels 1,917 1,09u

P2

(B Bet) Masterson: Cleveland 1,752 1,33u | Cleveland 1,87 2,678u



potential plays:
- S3 Pit fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 SD, if line <+100



________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Shooter73]

What I don't like about betting the Angels today is they used up their bullpen yesterday. Kinda hard to see Blanton going too deep either.

[theanswer03k]

White sox bullpen...

[Stifler]

22.04.2013

S1

(A Bet) Pit fade: Phillies 2,02 0,98u

S3

(C Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u| White Sox 2,01 6,36u
(A Bet) Tor fade: Baltimore 1,84 1,19u
(A Bet) Tex fade: LA Angels 1,917 1,09u

P2

(B Bet) Masterson: Cleveland 1,752 1,33u | Cleveland 1,87 2,678u

records:
S1: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
S2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
S3: W 36 | L 1 (-0,503 units)
P1: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
P2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


pending:
- P1 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
- P2 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
- P1 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P1 D.Fister, B Bet on next start
- P2 D.Fister, B Bet on next start
- S3 CHW, D Bet on 23.04.2013
- S3 Tex fade, B Bet on 23.04.2013


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

23.04.2013

S2
(A Bet) LAA: LA Angels- waiting on line movement

S3

(D Bet) CHW: WS 1,625 1,60u | WS 1,68 3,824u| White Sox 2,01 6,36u | White Sox 1,855 14,952u
(B Bet) Tex fade: LA Angels 1,917 1,09u | LA Angels - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,571 1,75u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3