[KVB]

KVB you are sharp and should not be speaking like this on a public forum. I appreciate it though.

Ra77er I was wondering if I lost you in this thread. Glad you posted.

Truthfully, if 1000 people read this shit then maybe 10 will be able to learn and then act in any meaningful way with this information. Of those maybe 10, I promise that less than 1 will be able to survive the first market shakeout. Combine the market itself with all the other reasons why bettors lose and even the most astute have a long way to go. I can only offer to cut the learning curve a bit for some of you but the first step is understanding what's happening here.

Hell, when I lose a couple of games in a row, which I’m sure will happen, folks at SBR will string me up anyway.

[Viravolta]

I was curious in general, because am not a high level specialist, do you include the Coach into the calculations? I think Mike O'Shea is a "medium performance" coach... have been checking some stats from years back, and indeed, 7-11-0 is a medium performance. Could you tell me if you consider this as well and if yes, what weight it has on the over modelling?

[KVB]

This first game with BC and Winnipeg offers, in many ways, a replay of some of the total action from last week. Even though I would appear to understand the line movement, and even though I suggest listening to where I say sharp money is indicating (that’s worked out well so far), and even though a pretty solid model for this early calls for the over in BC vs. Winnipeg, I’m still going to say pass.

I still feel, as far as money flow, we can learn and possibly profit more from knowing the result of this game’s total bet, than the bet itself. I’m waiting but if you’re a gambler and do choose to get the Over, lay the odds for Over 49.5 at places like Heritage or Pinnacle. I would not recommend over 50.5 at this point from other houses; it’s just too dicey in my opinion.

This may run a little deep and is even part of the 1^st quarter season review, but let me just say that the Under, and Winnipeg TT Under, in the third game last week was a bit of a gift from the books. I even hinted that it was a good bet…

…money the books took in on team totals last night may come back to the bettors tonight.

As such, I’m going with Winnipeg Team Total UNDER 22.5 (-110) in the Winnipeg vs. Edmonton game. If I were a gambling man with no money plan, I might load up here…

Winnipeg looked horrible, scoring 3 points that game. This poor turnout only can only instill confidence in the guy parsing out the bet above. Instead of saying how right I was because they did so poorly, I am a bit more suspicious. After all whether the team beats the spread by a half of a point or 20 points, I get paid the same, it can only play with my emotions and alter future numbers. Read that last sentence again.

So while I admit the books were simply giving the back to the bettor something they had already taken, I know there is no quarter. I know the books aim to take back what they gave. I am experienced.

As such, I am wary of the obvious total plays this week…most obviously the Under in that Montreal vs Calgary game. I’m not saying it isn’t a good bet, I just think we need more information from the market, and we will get it. That game isn’t until Saturday.

A mental bet on the OVER for the first game this week is a good idea and we’ll revisit this issue later and possibly at halftime of that first game.

We can never let our guard down, it’s tough enough with the guard up and remember, they hold no quarter…

[Viravolta]

I like your stile! Thumbs up also for the Zeppelin song! Let's see indeed tomorrow...

[KVB]

I was curious in general, because am not a high level specialist, do you include the Coach into the calculations? I think Mike O'Shea is a "medium performance" coach... have been checking some stats from years back, and indeed, 7-11-0 is a medium performance. Could you tell me if you consider this as well and if yes, what weight it has on the over modelling?

Short answer…no, but don’t neglect the coaches.

I think when you start building in team performance the coach, in many ways, shows through.

Judging past years’ performance can only be so helpful. Who were that coach’s staff and player personnel then? It’s surely different now; the same goes for his competition. What about rules? So many variables…

What’s important is the here and now. The current players, the recent performance, the current power ratings, the lines, the context of the marketplace make all the difference in the world.

Knowing where a team has been and know where they are gives you the best chance of knowing where they are headed. That’s how you get ahead of the market.

Many models fall short because they so seldom take context into account and are not applied to the marketplace correctly. What’s worse is people tend to forget very easily. They get fooled time and time again.

Anyway, there are, no doubt, coaches who know how to win; some coaches who put together perennial programs, and some who for whatever reason, a handshake, skills, staff, cheating, or a combination of them (like a Belichik) become great.

I think other stats will reflect these winning ways in a more predictive manner than the limited coach’s performance and rating the coach might produce false evidence in a model.

That said rating the coaches is a great idea and could be looked at when you view the games with a little more subjective lens. This is especially true when you get two great coaches facing off. The ever so important storyline could be all about the coaches.

Even one step further is to understand the tendencies of those coaches. Do they grind, air it out, use up clock, run up the score, key in on players, etc.

This knowledge can help you understand why the markets do what they do. It helps explain the reality.

Last week I suggested the sharper books didn’t want sharper players buying the Under in one of the games and I was content with my Under play.

It turns out it rained most of that game.

Consider this...if the markets scream under, regardless of what the models say, and you happen to know these are two grind ‘em out coaches, you can play it in your head, you just may have yourself a bet.

[Viravolta]

Thanks a lot for the informative explanation! I will try to consider that. Well... Jeff Tedford of BC, mostly dealt with offence in his career so far, this gives me hope for points increase. From what I've seen so far, definitely he grinds. O'Shea was good as player, but not quite as good as a coach. However, he's "into" the team, as one can be with his own... WIN compared with the last year, had gained much more speed with the pints so far... let's see tomorrow.

[KVB]

…Sure the near goose egg by Winnipeg is influential but I have another assertion. Looking at the markets we see the next day’s game is also sitting at 49.5, but that line opened at 49. I believe both lines have been made to equal 49.5 in effort for opportunistic books, taking advantage of the market factors, to once again split the money, the flow of money that is…

Well, well, well…it seems the money flow may have been split. One line went up to 50.5 while the next game conspicuously dropped one half of a point.

Sharp.

I already discussed the BC vs. Winnipeg total and a full point move makes sense to us; but what about the drop in Saskatchewan vs. Edmonton?

My models suggest Edmonton winning with 33 or 34, against Saskatchewan’s 16 or 17.

That’s 49 to 51 points. The line opened at 49, moved to 49.5, ok…and then the lines did their thing today, resting this game back on the opening, 49. There is a QB situation in Saskatchewan, and we’ve seen that theme this week already.

So we could call this line pretty sharp. We could even have another situation where the books could be minimizing, or even taking out the sharp bettors. We should consider other factors that could influence this line, other types of bettors.

Well, its obvious bait to bring in “streak riders” and “streak breakers,” remember them?

Question for the Forum…

What is KVB talking about? When he says bait to bring in those types of bettors, what does he mean?

I’ll tell you this much, it’s not going to give us a play, but it will help us follow the money as it passes through the total markets of the Saskatchewan vs Edmonton game, perhaps on its way to the Saturday game.





edit: 4:00 PM pacific...I'm seeing 48 and 48.5 in some spots of the world. Vegas still holding at 49, but online seeing more downward pressure.

edit 4:30 PM...Thursday's game hitting 51 while Friday's dropping to 48. Talk about splitting the money flow.

[Ra77er]

Hang on KVB...how did you know you lost me already? I am just taking my time with your posts and you are moving a little fast for me personally. Some IQ's like mine are always a few steps behind and it ticks me off.

[KVB]

...One may question why I would give up 2 points for a mere +107 at Pinnacle. Let’s just say I know Pinnacle, and win or lose, in this moment that bet is worth it, in my opinion. I am, in a sense, dollar cost averaging.

This last point could be controversial but I’m trying to say that if you didn’t get -4.5 at (-110), don’t be afraid of the (+107). This could be a trap, though not likely, and I supposed the ultimate judge will be whether we get a 4 or 5 point game; but if you are here for the long haul, you should be fine with -4.5 (+107), if here for the short term, take the -2.5 and don’t look back.

Let’s get this.

Well it's pretty much a 3 point line everywhere. I suppose it will close there. My guess is big money came today. Here were are in week 6 and lines getting honed a day early. Clear evidence of a shift in market efficiency. Let's see if I'm right, or if we see another shift tomorrow, possibly back to -2.5, but let's hope not.

As it is, I wouldn't be surprised to see a halftime line in Thursday's game that would add up to a 5 point BC win for the final score. If that halftime number points to a final score of 3.5 or 4 point BC win, Pinny may have tricked me early on. We'll see.

The long term guy in the post above may have to endure a trap here to eventually get it back, while the short term guy may get away with one.

"One quarter of season at a time"

[KVB]

...

SSK/EDM -- EDM -15.2 Total: 48.8

MTL/CGY -- CGY +3.2 Total: 42.3

TOR/HAM -- HAM -4.9 Total: 64.6 (I would consider this unreliable b/c this is HAM's first home game. Doesn't mean I won't play something, just don't think the model is telling us much here.)

Not bad on the SSK/EDM line...see the market now.

I also have Calgary as a small 3-5 point underdog with a low total and Hamilton as about a 3 point favorite. My TOR/HAM total is lower than yours, but I can see where you are coming from. More on that game later.

...On the other two, I tentatively like EDM tt o29.5 and CGY tt u26. I also think the u47.5 deserves a further look in the CGY game (and possibly MTL +4.5).

Interested in other thoughts as well...

Still worried about those total bets. With the SSK/EDM game total dropping, we'll see what the EDM team total does.

Calgary TT Under 26 once again seems so good. Last week failed and this week even seems better. Still wary though, see my post above about Total bets this week.

I'm going to get closer to Saturday for a clearer look.

[Jayvegas420]

Hang on KVB...how did you know you lost me already? I am just taking my time with your posts and you are moving a little fast for me personally. Some IQ's like mine are always a few steps behind and it ticks me off.

KVB, I think what he's trying to say is that we need more gifs in the thread. Dumb it down a little.
Boobs, falling cats. Something a little more SBR suitable.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I got pretty busy and will not have time to really look at the Thurs game. That said, I am leaning toward an action play on WIN o24. Haven't locked in, but I have them over 30 for the game (even including the 3pt debacle). I'll try to post an hour before the game if I decide to play it just for the sake of transparency.

Honestly, I was ready to lock in WIN +3 until I re-read KVB's post #210. I have no idea if it's true, but it's fascinating. And it got me wondering (and please take this in the spirit in which it is intended):

If you knew that Willy was going to play b/c of his "probable" status, why not wait for the announcement and grab the better line? I know this is hindsight, but where was the value in jumping on the line early when there was (at least to me) little chance of it going up?

Good discussions here. GL to us all!

[jjgold]

Tremendous write ups men

It's what I go off of as far as cfl

[KVB]

...Honestly, I was ready to lock in WIN +3 until I re-read KVB's post #210. I have no idea if it's true, but it's fascinating. And it got me wondering (and please take this in the spirit in which it is intended):

If you knew that Willy was going to play b/c of his "probable" status, why not wait for the announcement and grab the better line? I know this is hindsight, but where was the value in jumping on the line early when there was (at least to me) little chance of it going up?

Good discussions here. GL to us all!

It's all good for discussion, I get the spirit. We all need that spirit, checking on each other and asking questions helps us make sense of this mess.

That's the thing about probable...I never expected or anticipated any kind of announcement. For all practical purposes, probable means he's going to play. In fact, he's still listed as probable in some places. Sharps likely didn't react too much to this news.

That's why I considered it almost confirming when I expect pressure on Winnipeg from the beginning and this "announcement" is made...

...I believe we have a situation where the books have generated a little early steam on Winnipeg. I figured there would be Winnipeg pressure, and this additional, “apparently” news driven pressure simply makes the BC bet a little sweeter. Around the world the line is -3 and even -2.5 in places. I still think the action isn’t as heavy as it looks and note that Pinny still offer -4.5, is paying +107...

One may question why I would give up 2 points for a mere +107 at Pinnacle. Let’s just say I know Pinnacle, and win or lose, in this moment that bet is worth it, in my opinion. I am, in a sense, dollar cost averaging.

This last point could be controversial but I’m trying to say that if you didn’t get -4.5 at (-110), don’t be afraid of the (+107). This could be a trap, though not likely, and I supposed the ultimate judge will be whether we get a 4 or 5 point game; but if you are here for the long haul, you should be fine with -4.5 (+107), if here for the short term, take the -2.5 and don’t look back...

I may have entered this play too early. I just wasn’t sure we would see that volume.

I saw what Pinny was doing early, and took a shot. They were drawing money in, and I reacted. As it is the first game of the week, we run that risk of being trapped.

I may have made a mistake…Pinny is offering -3 at (+103). They are drawing the same money on the favorite. Like I said, I get the feeling the -4.5 could go bust.

First game of the first week when teams have played four games, I could see a trap for sharps right off the bat. Not to mention, the guy, like me, going for the -4.5 early on just hit going against movement, in the last game last week…a very revealing game.

I’m wishing I had seen it earlier but there are still good positions in this game, including the BC winner and -2.5.

Should that line drop to -2.5 and close there, I’m a little worried. These first games of the week are hairy. Seems I ran into the same trouble last week, losing that first total.

Then again, some of these lines are getting tempting.

[KVB]

Most of the positions on the first game are complete. I have recommended a couple of buy points. As I buy against the movement, if it goes wrong, it could be a bit like what we called in stocks…catching falling knives. It’s akin to buying a dropping stock as it gets cheaper, hoping you’re not just catching a falling knife.

There’s also a phrase used in stocks to calm panicking clients…don’t jump out of the boat when sharks are circling in the water.

My market analysis goes beyond any one game or one week, and entry points are deemed, for the most part, advantageous as presented, for the long term.

As such, I am picking up three more positions…British Colombia -2.5 (-105) and -3 (+107) and British Colombia -135 over Winnipeg.

I am taking the same -2.5 as earlier, with reduced juice and taking, once again, (+107) on the favorite.

Almost everything happens, for a reason, and if Pinny traps me here, I’m confident we’ll see a winner in the near future.

Likewise, a win here should be met with future caution, as they may have already tipped their hand.

[HeeluvaGuy]

OK. So I locked in the fade play of the night:

Winnipeg o24 (-110)

I don't think I'll have a play for tomorrow's game, but if this hits I will likely have something for Saturday.

GL everyone!

[KVB]

OK. So I locked in the fade play of the night:

Winnipeg o24 (-110)

I don't think I'll have a play for tomorrow's game, but if this hits I will likely have something for Saturday.

GL everyone!

From early on the Over was the thought in this game and Winnipeg surely wants to bounce from that 3 pointer, they are better than that. Like I said, it's not Edmonton tonight.

I will be watching, keeping my eye on that Calgary bet Saturday.

Whether you hit or not, we're going to figure this puzzle out by then.

[noddse]

Weather forecasts show a chance of rain during the game. Everyone who is watching the games this year (and experience from years back) knows that especially in the cfl rain effects offense.

Under normal circumstances, this total would be a bit to small. BC can't stop anyone defensively and they have had a lot of personnel change during the week in their secondary because of injuries and inexperience on certain positions. There offense is above average I would say with Lulay having the 2nd best total yards per drive average in the CFL. The biggest question mark is the health of Drew Willy. He is the key to success for the Bombers. They wouldn't be dogs at home to an average Lions squad with him fully healthy. I like their offense, too as they have a lot of big play potential. But their defense, gosh their defense.

Too many x and o's in this game in my opinion.

btw. just a notice. Winnipeg is 2-12 under O'Shea trailing at half time. Also, since 2009, they are 31-8 if they win the turnover battle but 8-66 if not.

[Jayvegas420]

Big move to 51.5

[KVB]

And dropping to -2 in some spots. I just picked up British Colombia -127 to over Winnipeg.

They're going to move it, fuk em. Move it again...I dare you.

[KVB]

I hope Winnipeg goes ahead first, there may be live opportunities tonight.

[true degenerate]

CFL Posted Picks: (2-0)

just got home from work but played:

B.C-3

[KVB]

A follow up to that mental bet...not in bold but I like Over 24.5 2nd half BC vs. Winnipeg.

[Jayvegas420]

Quick TD in 2nd 1/2


Then.....

[KVB]

Quick TD in 2nd 1/2


Then.....

Yeah, BC missing about 3 TD's this game. Turnovers made sure of that.

Gonna be an interesting week.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Jul 30, 2015
4:30 PM
#600785953
Placed by Web

Single #xxxxxx

Football - Point Spread
BC Lions @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 3.0 (-115) Jul 30, 2015 5:35 PM



$115.00
$100.00



still haven't lost 3 in a row yet.

[KVB]

Jul 30, 2015
4:30 PM
#600785953
Placed by Web

Single #xxxxxx

Football - Point Spread
BC Lions @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 3.0 (-115) Jul 30, 2015 5:35 PM



$115.00
$100.00



still haven't lost 3 in a row yet.

Bet with your head though Kahn. I'll make it short.

You could never lose three in a row and still not profit.

You could end up down money before half the season is over.

Keep an eye on your bankroll as well as the win loss.

Good so far though.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Winnipeg o24 (-110)

Disappointing loss because there were points everywhere. On to the next one...

[Viravolta]

This 3-pint game score last game, probably made the management scream like banshees, and guess the guys putted lot of efforts to win over BC. Anyway... as KVB said, first games are always unpredictable. Lost the over, but got the spread on that game. Let's see what happens next with the other games.

[Jaug]

What is going on in CFL. Losing all my bets.

Every game goes under. EVERY game..

[Ra77er]

CFL is pissing me off as well.

GK is always winning here and I'm still looking for the matrix of doom hidden in KVB's post.

Dude I thought the line move was unsophisticated still, good grief

[KVB]

Don't let it rattle you Ra77er. Every game is a different issue, looking at the movement of just one game, then seeing the result, is not enough to determine sophistication.

We've seen bullshit lines clean house for the early part of the season, this was game one of week 6, still early.

I have bought more CFL, particularly the Under for tomorrow. I'll bold it in a minute but I'm sticking my neck out this week once again.

[KVB]

…Dude I thought the line move was unsophisticated still, good grief

Remember this?

...One preliminary prediction I have, which I consider pretty sharp, is British Colombia winning 30-27...

Actually Ra77er, my score for BC was 30 and my score for Winnipeg was 27.5 points. That could have translated to 28 points almost as easily as 27; in fact I have 27 or 28 in the book.

The line closed at basically -2, -2.5, or -3 just about everywhere. There was no doubt unsophisticated money was taking Winnipeg, but the books honed and sharpened the line in the end, according to my line. I still think they were trying to get a pass out of many sharps for this game.

I think I underestimated the volume, even though I said this was the first week they’d enter with any force.

Makes sense, Pinny tossed out some bait and I took it. Fuk em.

[Ra77er]

It does make sense and I searched for a gif but this thread is not appropriate for that. It will be interesting to see the results from game to game, wk to wk. I am not frustrated at you on the play, more myself. I hope we can continue the through the season.

Oilers 9.5 would be my pick tomorrow just mentally.

[KVB]

Well, well, well…it seems the money flow may have been split. One line went up to 50.5 while the next game conspicuously dropped one half of a point…

…My models suggest Edmonton winning with 33 or 34, against Saskatchewan’s 16 or 17…

That’s 49 to 51 points. The line opened at 49, moved to 49.5, ok…and then the lines did their thing today, resting this game back on the opening, 49. There is a QB situation in Saskatchewan, and we’ve seen that theme this week already.

So we could call this line pretty sharp. We could even have another situation where the books could be minimizing, or even taking out the sharp bettors. We should consider other factors that could influence this line, other types of bettors.

Well, its obvious bait to bring in “streak riders” and “streak breakers,” remember them?

Question for the Forum…

What is KVB talking about? When he says bait to bring in those types of bettors, what does he mean?

I’ll tell you this much, it’s not going to give us a play, but it will help us follow the money as it passes through the total markets of the Saskatchewan vs Edmonton game, perhaps on its way to the Saturday game.

edit 4:30 PM...Thursday's game hitting 51 while Friday's dropping to 48. Talk about splitting the money flow.

With one game down, we are one step closer to Saturday. I recognize that the answer the question above doesn’t give us a play, but it points my thoughts a certain direction. I know there is value in seeing one more result but in looking at the bigger picture and other, unnamed, market factors, I’ve decided to forego the pass and pick up a position in UNDER 48 (-108) for Saskatchewan vs. Edmonton.

I have bolded this play with the thought, once again, of the long haul in mind. A loss here is once again likely to be recuperated. As the season progresses we will get a better feel for acceptable risk in these situations.

This game Friday is a pivotal game this week. The books have split the total money flow for the Total and may be rounding up the bettors as we speak.

In my opinion, the same thing is about to happen in the sides too. I have some of those unnamed factors that tell me the books are aiming to split the bettors in the Friday and Saturday games…perhaps another round up for Sunday.

Pinny shows these prices on the sides offered:



It may not mean much, but when combined with other factors, this could be an indication the books are up to something near term. It just depends on the issues.

I can see from other metrics and we all know that they are going to have to be up to something, and these prices make me look a little closer.

For even money, it makes sense for me to venture beyond the point of passing to see results and take a position consistent with my prediction and a stab at the book’s direction. I am picking up Edmonton -10 (+100) over Saskatchewan.

Good Luck